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…and Just Like That, the Nord Stream Pipelines Went Kaboom!
Last night, the twin pipelines supplying Russian natural gas to Germany blew up. Specifically, they were both breached below the surface of the Baltic Sea, near Danish and Swedish territorial waters. Almost certainly sabotage, based both on the time coincidence, and a Swedish seismologist’s estimate that at least 100kg of explosive was used.
This sabotage was not a trivial exercise. It would presumably require a ROV, large underwater drone and/or a submarine to place the charges accurately. There’s a limited supply of such equipment and expertise. And it would likely require a large enough team that it will eventually leak, even if there’s no obvious forensic information to be gathered.
Qui bono? Certainly Ukraine. Russia’s ability to use energy blackmail against Germany in particular and Europe in general has been eliminated at a stroke. But they are notably short of a navy and the required equipment and experts.
By the same token, unlikely to be official Russian actions. Putin’s ability to turn the tap on and off at will was just eliminated. Much is being made by the fact that it happened the same day a new gas pipeline from Scandinavia to the mainland was opened, but you don’t generally threaten your enemy’s asset by destroying your own.
But Russia does have the necessary equipment and expertise, so there’s a chance that a military faction that wants to get rid of Putin but has no way to directly confront him would comprise his negotiating position in a reversible fashion (pipelines can be repaired).
After that, the circle gets pretty wide. The US certainly has the required abilities, as likely do the UK, France, and a few others. Any pipeline or marine salvage company probably also could pull it off in a pinch, but keeping that secret would be hard, I’d think.
So the strategic background to Ukraine vs. Russia just shifted dramatically, and we don’t yet know who or why.
Published in Foreign Policy
I am so-o-o waiting for more on this.
Back in the 1990’s INSG (Int’l Naval Studies Group, a self-appointed community) evaluated claims that the Soviets had conducted sabotage of Swedish undersea infrastructure. The evidence involved tracks on the seabed floor and so forth, timing, assets in area, behavior of surface units at the time. IIRC, the verdict was that the Soviets had the motive, means, and opportunity, and that it was *likely* a Soviet job.
Thirty years forward, Hell, who doesn’t have the means now? Drop a bottom-crawling drone south of the thing and tell it to make its way north until it detects a large mass of steel, then detonate.
I’ll go with not Germany. They have people protesting to end Russian sanctions. Zero gain for them, and actually puts them in a tighter spot.
Biden said he’d do it, but he’s just an old coot.
And on a special note, the leaks are actually outside territorial waters, one just barely.
I don’t understand the point of this. Are we to assume the US sabotaged a pipeline so that it could not carry gas that Putin is not putting into the pipeline and that he’s already not selling to Western Europe?
Yeah, I didn’t want to put it into the main post, but the Swedes and Norwegians had issues with encroaching Soviet/Russian subs for years and IIRC at one point had one cornered but decided not to finally sink it. Russia certainly has the gear but the motivation seems backwards. For that matter, the Scandinavians almost certainly have the where with all, and also motivation: Competition eliminated!
Rumor mongers and sensationalists are going to have lots of fun with this. Such a fascinating combination of motives and opportunity!
Well, it certainly does draw attention to the war!
Updated accordingly.
Yeah, . . . this was my first thought. Not that the U.S. was behind it, but why take out a pipeline that is already shut down by Russia in an attempt to freeze out Europe?
To make sure it’s harder for it to go back online?
The only people who would really benefit from this is Ukraine, whose revenue stream was threatened by the existence of the pipeline before the war escalated. One major controversy over Nordstream 1 and 2 was that it gave Russia the ability to bypass Ukraine, and therefore no longer pay them for transporting gas through their territory. Trump opposed it, thus aiding Ukraine. Biden approved it, thus screwing Ukraine.
It could be NATO or the German government, burning the ships so to speak.
It could be Russia for the same purpose.
There is some speculation that leak could get big enough to cross into Danish territory. I know, I know, staring at the trees and not taking in the forest.
Radio Free Europe has an interesting story:
The Ukrainian Navy does not have direct access to the Baltic Sea, Russia does.
Well, anybody can kick a bomb drone off the transom.
China could pull this off. It would benefit them as it makes Russia dependent on China for energy sales. Texas also benefits, but I don’t believe that Texas has the capability to pull off an undersea mission in Europe. But, the pipeline can be fixed fairly quickly, so who benefits in the short-term? Who benefits from Germany being unable to negotiate with Russia?
Or was it that Germany had opened a secret back channel to settle things and the other Nato members didn’t like it? Considering the level of surveillance the NSA/CIA conduct on the German government, you’d think the Prime Minister was named Trump.
Well, who’s been setting fire to the world’s oil refineries? I don’t know but I would imagine they’re the same people who benefit from blowing up the pipeline. By the way, they’re pro-Ukraine, and this does benefit Ukraine, too. So, a win-win.
So Texas has a Navy now? Or Navy Seal type underwater drones? Those guys can do anything.
Germany.
This occurred to me, too.
Someone out there is doing all they can to make sure we starve and freeze this winter.
They don’t have the City of Corpus Christi anymore.
Polish MP thanking the US.
Wut?
Good likeness, too.
Bwahaha! That’s awesome.
Extinction Rebellion? Greenpeace? Antifa? The DNC? Various North American based pipeline saboteurs?
Without facts, I’m inclined to suspect CIA. The combo of budget and idiocy is telling.
Biden did say unequivocally that he would stop the Nordstrom pipeline. And he says that we will stay in and support Ukraine come what may. And the CIA is the right hand of the globalists who have to have Ukraine win so that Russia loses. So, yeah, probably the CIA.
Biden also approved it. Biden is not in charge.
I don’t know what to believe from these foul evildoers anymore.
Well, Germany didn’t do it, and Russia didn’t do it. I doubt that Saudi or India did it. China? Or the US? What would China’s motive be?
ALIENS
The only logical answer.
Warned Germany or threatened?
Illegal or green?