Conflict: Niall Ferguson on Ukraine, Taiwan, and His War of Words with V. P. Vance

 

Niall Ferguson, preeminent historian and Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, joins this episode of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson to discuss the war and ongoing stalemate in Ukraine; the Trump administration’s foreign policy and negotiations with Russia; and the broader geopolitical landscape, including the shift in Europe’s defense posture as the US signals a reduced commitment to NATO.

Lawfare: What Would Harry Callahan Do?

 

A half-century ago, moviegoers flocked to see Inspector Harry Callahan (Dirty Harry) and Paul Kersey (Death Wish) fight wrongdoing in a world where sclerotic legal processes were worse than useless. The system had become unduly solicitous to the rights of villains who had nothing but contempt for the rights of others and for the system itself.

Like some smug, obviously guilty killer going free on some evidentiary or procedural issue in the first 30 minutes of a Death Wish or Dirty Harry movie, the current crop of plaintiffs defending waste, fraud, abuse, grift, gangsterism and/or terrorism supporters are strolling out of well-selected federal courthouses with an injunction or order in hand and a big smile on their faces.

Pangolin Vindicated!

 

Good news for an unnamed pangolin accused of starting the Covid-19 pandemic. It turns out that the CIA, MI6 and Germany’s BND have all revealed that they believe the source of the pandemic was the Wuhan Immunology Laboratory.   Not only that, but they have high confidence and made their conclusions way back in the spring of 2020.

Five years is a long time to wait when you only live 20 years. FYI, a pangolin can eat about 600 pounds of insects with its 16-inch long tongue in five years. The pangolin looks like an armadillo, but it is not related. Pangolin are under threat because their meat is considered a delicacy and its scales (which are like fingernails) are thought to have medicinal properties. But the most threatening feature for this creature is that they can carry coronaviruses, and that made them the perfect scapegoat for whoever was funding gain-of-function research at the biosecurity level 2 lab in Wuhan. It was none other than the recently pardoned Dr. Fauci who put the blame on the innocent pangolin.

Astronomy Update

 

As I’ve posted about in the past, I was interested in astronomy in my early years and even was involved in a Boys’ Club in Oregon for building your own telescope.  We worked on making our own mirrors; first grinding and polishing the glass, then sending them out for “silvering.”  Mine was the only one that didn’t come back from that, so I didn’t finish it.  I think the Men in Black took it because it was so good — I would have seen their Lunar Max prison facility on the Moon where they were holding Boris the Animal.

In more recent years, I’ve been accumulating a variety of telescope brands, types, and sizes, mostly from thrift stores, etc.  For these prices, I’ve been able to gather a pretty large variety and enjoy their different advantages versus what I could have afforded to buy at retail.

Five Years Later, They’ve Learned Nothing

 

An article in today’s East Bay Times reflects on the fifth anniversary of the historic news conference held in San Jose on March 16, 2020. Health officers from six Bay Area counties (standing six feet apart from each other, naturally) announced the nation’s first and strictest stay-at-home order. It was supposed to last for 3 weeks — we all know how that turned out.

So looking back now, with the full benefit of hindsight, would Dr. Sara Cody steer a different course?

Severance Is Darn Good Scifilosophy

 

Severance dazzles. Who would have expected a horror/sci-fi/philosophy gem from Ben Stiller? This is the best sci-fi TV dealing with the topic of personal identity since Travelers; and Travelers may have been the best ever, and Severance might be better still.

No, you shouldn’t actually watch it–most of you. There are endless F-words, a couple of fornication scenes to fast-forward through, and . . . horror. This show is dark, not least because of the awful bright dystopian fluorescent lighting on the Severed Floor of the Lumon building. It’s lighting that only highlights the horrific handling of the employees on that floor. This is 1984-level stuff. And something even worse is happening on the mysterious floor below it.

Republicans Must Continue Holding Town Halls

 

Republicans who have been holding town halls have found it to be a controversial and unpleasant experience. One of the most recent town halls was held by Republican Representative Chuck Edwards of North Carolina. And in spite of the speculations that Democrats were organizing protests, and the difficulties of holding these meetings, Edwards is not giving up:

Some Republicans have faced nearly relentless heckling at recent town halls as constituents berate lawmakers over federal agency and budget cuts made by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an unofficial agency created through executive order and nominally led by Elon Musk.

What is America’s Future?

 

I know this is unpredictable. But my view of the possibilities has certainly shifted with what I have observed since the re-election of Donald Trump.

Some thought to call Trump’s second term a lame duck term, whatever that would mean to different people. I don’t think such a term really applies to Trump under any circumstances. It usually seems to mean a difference in behavior depending on whether a future election is in store or not, but I have never seen that in Trump’s behavior or potential. He is working now to get as much of what he sees as needed accomplished during his time in office. I had little confidence that America’s constitutional founding conditions and environment had any potential for restoration after the 2012 election. Trump’s re-election changed that outlook.

Air Action In Italy

 

As the Sicilian Campaign ended in August 1943, the Allies had to decide where to go next. Landings in France would not take place until 1944. No one wanted to sit around for a year. Italy was on the point of surrender. For lack of a better objective, Allied Supreme Command decided to move into Italy and see what would happen.

Mediterranean Sweep: The USAAF in the Italian Campaign, by Thomas McKelvey Cleaver, shows what followed. It examines the air campaign in Italy from 1943 through 1945.

The ground campaign in Italy was a disappointment, largely due to the failings of commanders like Generals Mark Clark and John Lucas. Cleaver shows the air campaign was a successful application of tactical air power. In many ways it was a clinic on how to do tactical air right.

The Goyang Guest Thanksgiving Avocado Blues

 

The first time I visited South Korea was in November, 2011. I stayed in an apartment being used, by a Korean family I knew, as a school. The city was Goyang, just outside of Seoul as most Korean cities seem to be. You’ll know it by the manhole covers there that say, “Let’s Goyang!” Even Koreans appreciate lame second-language wordplay.

At the time, I couldn’t read or speak Korean, leading to some minor difficulties. Nearly all Korean students study English, but it’s surprising how few can actually speak it. That’s not on them – I’m not crazy about studying their language either.

Quote of the Day – Theories

 

We’ve learned in recent years that when the Left’s theories are contradicted by the real world, they stick with the theory.  If the laboratory mice aren’t behaving as predicted, the problem isn’t the theory; it’s the mice. — Stephen Moore

While Moore stated this several years back, we are seeing it illustrated today. The Democrats lost big last year running on a platform of wokeness, environmental activism, mass migration, antisemitism, and trans activism. They were doing more than using these as a political platform, they were running the country with these as their lodestars. Speech police existed. Gas appliances and gasoline-powered cars were to be banned. Illegal aliens were welcomed into the country using resources extorted from legal residents. Hamas was supported. Boys were allowed to play in girls’ sports if they pretended to be girls and anyone objecting was punished.

Speaking of Ephemeral Cease Fires

 

As negotiations with Russia, Ukraine, and Hamas move at a pace that gives the second coming a better chance of occurring before any agreement will be reached there is a cease fire needed closer to home.

Chicago is an outdoor shooting range. The numbers are impressive, sobering is the better adjective. There are some that try to minimize the statistics with the per 100,000 population statistic. I’m not sure the survivors are impressed with rationalizations.

The only truly functioning high-speed rail in America today is the Trump Train, and not even the prospect of a 200% tariff on the core commodity of this podcast—single malt scotch whiskies—can dampen the 180-proof spirits of Lucretia, host of this week’s episode.

But we still manage to get in some disagreements about how to understand what is going on, especially with the Ukraine War endgame. In fact, we got John Yoo to out himself as the OGNC (“original gangsta neo-con”) on the question of whether American foreign policy has been overly dominated by Wilsonian internationalism for the last century, or whether it has been more realist. John was responding to my two Substack articles (here and here) on different aspects how idealism and realism play out in the Ukraine matter, disliking both. Lucretia responded with a great harumph.

Ukraine critics, what are your terms?

 

No one on Ricochet is a high official in the State Department, and no one in power is looking to us for advice.  But people have opinions, and I’m interested in learning what some of you think.  While no one here (that I recall) has come out and expressly declared themselves to be an admirer of Vladimir Putin, there are definitely people who hold President Zelensky (and Ukraine in general) in contempt.  These are the people I am curious to hear from. 

There are negotiations going on for a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine that would hopefully set the stage for a more permanent peace agreement.  These negotiations may or may not bear fruit in the near future.  I would like to know what terms you would find acceptable in either a short-term or long-term agreement.  Based on many comments I have read over the last couple of years, I presume you want Ukraine to promise to never apply for membership in NATO and to recognize Russia’s claim on Crimea.  Perhaps also the other territory that Russia has already taken.  What else?  Do you think Russia should reject a deal that doesn’t put limits on the size of Ukraine’s armed forces?  What about a prohibition on any foreign troops in Ukraine (excepting Russia’s, of course)?  If Russia demands changes in Ukraine’s government, is that going too far, or do you think that is a legitimate demand?

Worthwhile Mistakes

 

Recently I answered a request for volunteers to perform in Purimspiel, a lighthearted and very corny celebration of the book of Esther.

I did this because I made two mistakes… I would never have attended the third rehearsal if I hadn’t thought it was the first, and I didn’t realize that there were no simple spoken parts.

It’s that time of year again. Yep, time to delve into the troubles of your favorite cereal mascots. They have no insurance? It’s okay… we have trading stamps!

On Writing Magic

 

Whenever you’re writing a story you’re going to have some fantastic elements in it. A novel of cops and robbers, for example, will include a mafia with its own customs and hierarchy. You, as an author, will have to introduce your reader to this world, even if your reader is a schoolteacher from Kansas. There’s nothing magical about a mob (or at least most mobs), but it will operate according to rules that need explaining. I’m referring to all that as magic. A wizard’s fireball? Magic. A lightsaber? Magic. James Bond’s car ejection seat? Magic—even though the Mythbusters built a working model. Got it? Let’s dig in.

Characterizing a Magic System

Using my loose definition, almost every story has a magic system. This system consists of the rules your characters follow when determining what they can and can’t do with magic.  (And yes, there are things magic can’t do. Plenty about that as we go.)

The stories you may have missed this week:

  • Hey, Republicans, let’s have some fun! Here’s to having hearings on justifying the cost of college.
  • Defending Free Speech: Yes, you’re allowed to have bad thoughts.
  • Trump’s crazy executive order on Perkins Coie.
  • How Biden cooked the books on immigration.
  • Facts on the economy (now with sugar subsidies!)

It’s Justin Trudeau’s last day. A time to rejoice for the friends of liberty to our north. But the economic spat between the US and Canada has had the unwelcome consequence of restraining the latter’s Conservative Party momentum. Thankfully, Ezra Levant returns to the Ricochet Podcast with a solution, which he laid out in a recently published book with a title that shows he knows how to speak our language: Deal of the Century: The America First Plan for Canada’s Oil Sands. He explains his pitch to the president and brings us up to speed on the political scene of our dearest neighbor.

Plus, Steve and James talk taxes, the Columbia University crackdown, and Lee Zeldin’s big moves at the EPA.

Trump delivers unwanted “help“ to our friends

 

When Donald Trump assumed the presidency, two allies of the US—Israel and Ukraine—were mired in bloody wars with ancient enemies. Both desperately needed more military aid in the effort to defeat their heavily armed foes.

Biden had granted both only enough military aid to enable them to not lose but not enough to win. Moreover, the arms they received came with the condition that they not be used to inflict serious damage to their enemy. Trump could have helped turn the tide. Instead he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Panhandle Blizzard of 1957

 

Vehicles stranded near Cimarron, Kans., after the storm. Source: Dodge City Globe newspaper, via weather.gov

The month of March 1957 had been unseasonably warm in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and western Kansas. On March 10, the National Weather Service in Dodge City, Kans., recorded a record high of 79°. Most days were in the 60s and 70s. But the jet stream was interacting with a powerful low-pressure system to pull moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into a cold front coming down from the north. On March 23, a blizzard struck the High Plains.

Old Russia? Interrupted Russia? One Of Those.

 

From The Memoirs of Count Witte:

I was criticized by some blockheads for building up industry too rapidly. Also, I was criticized for using “artificial means” in promoting industry. What does this stupid phrase mean? By what means other than artificial can industry develop? Everything that man does is, to a certain degree, artificial. Only barbarians manage to live without artificial means. Industry has always been developed by artificial means; and the artificial measures I employed were far weaker than those employed for the same ends by other states. This, of course, our salon ignoramuses do not know.

China is an Existential Threat to this Country

 

Any person who follows news about China must believe that it is a significant threat to the future of the U.S. And yet it’s possible that most people don’t take that fact to heart because we don’t feel the impact of China directly in our everyday lives. After reading Senator Tom Cotton’s latest book, Seven Things You Can’t Say About China, I’m convinced that the threat is massive, dire and personal to all of us and the future of this country. We must stop talking about the threat; we must take immediate and critical action.

The points that Tom Cotton highlights are concerning, but until you read the details of what they actually mean in our lives, it’s easy to imagine that people think he’s not talking about them.

The Joys of Impounding Funds, or DOGE vs. Judge Ali

 

Impoundment has traditionally been considered a part of the executive power that the Constitution invests in the president. From Jefferson to Nixon, the president regularly impounded funds that he felt were unconstitutional or did not comport with Congress’s intent or infringed on the president’s national security and foreign policy powers.

Examples include Jefferson impounding funds for constructing navy yards that the previous congress had appropriated or funds for gunboats on the Mississippi at the time he was secretly negotiating with France to purchase Louisiana. In a 20th-century example, Truman asked for money for 48 Air Force groups, but Congress appropriated money for 58. Truman held the money for the extra 10 groups in reserve. Generally the president and Congress ironed out their differences, especially when changed circumstances proved one or the other correct. Unfortunately, we can’t count on such goodwill today.