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Election Prognostications: Mixed Signals, No Wave

KellyJohnston
@KellyJohnston
Warning: this is a long post, but it's the kind you can skip over races you don’t care about to find the ones you do. I made the case, with help from others, including the Washington Post and Echelon Insight’s Patrick Ruffini, that most of the public polls are off. The question is how much, and where. I also teed up how to watch the early returns in states whose polls close the earliest, starting with Kentucky (6 p.m. EST), for possible trends.
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Latest podcast episodes

Trump at the Lincoln Memorial

Steve Fast
@SteveFast
I was excited to hear that Trump would go live at the Lincoln Memorial to give his closing pitch for the midterms. I was hopeful for a rousing close to a Republican campaign that has otherwise been rather lackluster. But no. The speech was at the Reflecting Pool — the Lincoln Memorial was not visible. The crowd was small and gave only tepid applause. He started by announcing that it would be renamed the Trump Reflecting Pool. He then said it was a joke, but it reminded viewers of his narcissism.
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Addressing The Festering Embarrassment That Is Tucker Carlson

Brian Watt
@BrianWatt
It's the day before Election Day (or in California, Election Month-or-So), and the warped and devious charlatan Tucker Carlson has baselessly announced that Israel is prodding President Trump to drop a nuclear bomb on Iran. It's not enough that Carlson has attacked the legacy of Charlie Kirk or openly supported Michigan Islamist and Democrat candidate for Senate Abdul El-Sayed. Now Carlson is making headlines internationally for his outrageous and unhinged claim about a potential nuclear strike on Iran. So, will Vice President J.D.
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A Genuine American Patriot

Susan Quinn
@SusanQuinn
We often meet nice people on cruises, but I rarely meet special people. This last trip, however, I did. Her name was J.J., and she had more energy and resilience than almost any American I’ve ever met. What struck me most, though, was her extraordinary love for this country and its military. Ever since she was a little girl, J.J. aspired to be a “Julie” on the Love Boat. After a varied career, she finally applied for a job as a cruise excursion director.
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God Bless Haley Stevens

GrandpaPublius
@GrandpaPublius
Hey, Chuck! Hey, Hakeem! Barack! Kamala! What are you going to do now? Haley Stevens just grew a spine and announced she can’t bring herself to endorse a flaming antisemite. You four all decided to pretend that a Muslim Brotherhood defender wasn’t really an antisemite. You four all decided the Democratic Big Tent had plenty of room for Jew-haters as long as they pretended they weren’t Jew-haters, and were just Zionist-haters and Israel-haters.
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Quote of the Day: The Left

Seawriter
@Seawriter
When the left loses an election, it tries to destroy the country; when it wins, it succeeds. - Nancy Pearcey One need only look at the two-year temper tantrum the US left has exhibited since the 2024 election to understand the wisdom of the first half of the quote. They have turned obstructionism into an art form, taking actions and positions which undermine the security and prosperity of the United States. Incarcerating violent criminals? Fuggetaboutit: That is what Trump wants to do, so no!
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Medicare for all

Joker
@Joker
There are a lot of downsides to a Medicare-for-all system, specifically having to do with the actual care — the time to see a doctor or specialist, the lack of innovation, the fact that everyone still needs to pay insurance premiums even under those programs, and eligibility for anyone who sets foot in the US. Just look at the VA. Proponents claim that they'll pay for it by taxing the rich. If it were that easy, countries with socialized medicine would already be doing it. There's enough there to cover costs for about a year. Maybe.
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Trick or Treating 2026

Full Size Tabby
@FullSizeTabby
I had an unusually large number of trick-or-treaters at our house last night. I did not recognize most of the costumes. Several Hogwarts student outfits were familiar, along with the “Maverick” character from Top Gun (mostly on young boys who seemed to have little idea about the character), and some police officers (again, mostly on very young boys). No firefighters (last year there were several). Fewer inflatable costumes this year than in recent years.
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How Much is Too Much?

Gus Marvinson
@Gus
When I was much younger and "my steps were quick and light," as Mr. Seger used to sing, I sat down at a table in the library with Hemingway's The Old Man and the Sea. I hadn't read Hemingway before then, and selected that particular volume because it was referenced in a now-forgotten article I'd read. Once I had my nose squarely, and immovably, in the book, I caught myself giggling. Not because it was funny, but because I enjoyed the prose so much. It was so purposeful and gossamer-like.
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Korean Bits and Pieces from the Anecdotal Yokel

Andrew Troutman
@Dotorimuk
Thought I’d post some bite-sized chunks about Korean life…random things and unrelated. Think of them as parts of a slowly-cohering mosaic I will never fully construct. Lining busy streets are ginkgo trees aplenty. In Korea, they are associated with Confucianism and scholarly traits. They basically went extinct in the wild, but people, especially in these parts, have preserved them.
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Swing and a Myth

Andrew Miller
@AndrewMiller
The man lay stretched out on the jutting rock, bronze chains dangling from his wrists. In the distance, the sinking island glowed magma-red and deep orange in the sunset. Wreckage floated by. There was a soft whoosh and some slight scrabbling. The man opened one eye. There was a bird – quite a large bird, all things considered; regal, even – with a very sharp beak. ‘Don’t even think about it,’ he said, wearily.
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Battle for a Ridgeline

Seawriter
@Seawriter
The Schnee Eifel was rugged upland on the German side of the German-Belgian border. It was thickly-forested with few roads. It was virtually impossible for vehicles to travel in and difficult for infantry. The Siegfried Line ran through it. Between September 1944 and February 1945 three major battles were fought in it. “Javelins in the Half-Light: The Schnee Eifel Battles, 1944-45,” by Craig S. Chapman, tells the story of those three battles.
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Obama Sinks Lower

Old Bathos
@OldBathos
This offensive ad is running across channels in Maryland, with Barack Obama urging voters to approve Question 3 that would give the state legislature authority to ignore both the state constitution and SCOTUS precedent requiring congressional districts to be contiguous and reasonably compact. Maryland is already gerrymandered: Seven of eight districts are drawn wildly to give Democratic majorities, including mine, which used to have a GOP representative. Republicans make up 30 to 40% of voters but have 12.5% of the districts.
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The Delight of Discipline

Dave Carter
@DaveCarter
Say what you will about the simple pleasures in life. For my money, or lack thereof, few pleasures equal a quiet morning, a good coffee and a bit of reading. Today’s installment consists of a simple observation from the Greek philosopher Epictetus, who reaches out to us across a span of nearly 1,900 years to say, “Just as one person delights in improving his farm and another his horse, so I delight in attending to my own improvement day by day.”
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3 Whisky Happy Hour
3 Whisky Happy Hour

Captain James T. Kirk and the Constitution

John Yoo is back this week, but Lucretia is away for once, but in her place we have special giest Michael Stokes Paulson of the University of St. Thomas Law School in Minnesota, who is the author of, among many other significant legal articles, "Captain Kirk and the Enterprise of Constitutional Interpretation: Some Modest Proposals from the 23rd Century." It turned out to be very timely as we received the sad news of the passing of Patrick Stewart, which started off a fresh round of the SciFi equivalent of the debate between the ancients and the moderns, that is, Star Trek: The Original Series, or Star Trek: The Next Generation, and Captain Kirk versus Captain Piccard. (I'll merely note that Shatner Lives!) Prof. Paulson has some excellent and serious consitutional reflections from an Original Series episode called "The Omega Glory," and all three of us indulge our best Shatner imitations. But we also get a recollections of Paulson's role in the nomination of David Souter to the Supreme Court in 1990. So as Piccard might say, now that this episode has been posted, Make it so! to be on the top of your podcast queue.
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More Medicare, Fewer Doctors

Dr. Craniotomy
@Craniotomy
Having trouble finding a doctor? Medicare is to blame, and Medicare for All would only worsen it. There are many reasons for the physician shortage, but burnout and early exits from clinical medicine are major drivers. These physicians who leave their practice blame administrative hassle as a leading reason. Medicare for All advocates claim that removing private insurance would alleviate this burden, allowing doctors to practice medicine again.
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The Ricochet Podcast
The Ricochet Podcast

Treats, s’il vous plaît!

Steve and James embrace the Halloween mindset with a chat about a cast of characters who transcend space, time, and barriers of language and even reality. They brace themselves for the midterms, swap a couple scary movie suggestions, and offer a proper send-off to Sir Patrick Stewart. The inestimable biographer Andrew Roberts joins to discuss his latest work, Napoleon and His Marshals: Victory, Rivalry, Betrayal. Along with detailing the extraordinary talent behind the Grande Armée, the trio draws attention to parallels that contemporary expansionists, visionaries, and magalomaniacs would do well to remember. (And speaking of treats, be sure to get your code for a whopping discount on a Ricochet subscription for your first year!) Opening sound this week: The late Sir Patrick Stewart at Just for Laughs in Montréal in 2015. Closing music: "Space Journey," by Daniel Inrem via MotionArray.
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The Lady Has Guts

Nanocelt TheContrarian
@NanoceltTheContrarian
The title was a description historically applied to Jane Byrne in Chicago. Byrne had been fired from her position with the city government by Michael Bilandic, successor to the legendary mayor Richard J. Daley. She then ran against Bilandic in the Democratic primary at the next mayoral election. Byrne had been a Daley acolyte, but following her firing she ran against the Daley machine, a seemingly foolhardy move for a Democratic candidate. Bilandic was the machine candidate. Byrne was given little chance of unseating him.
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Every Boy Wants a Remco Toy

Gary McVey
@GaryMcVey
That TV ad slogan once included me and most of my friends. In postwar America, Remco made its fortune with toys that made science and engineering fun. By ’61, Remco was as big a factor for boys at Christmastime as Mattel’s Barbie (1959) was becoming for girls. A year or two later, Remco made a momentous, lasting change to their slogan. It became the more familiar one that readers of a certain age may remember. “Every Boy Wants a Remco Toy…and So Do Girls!” Was that premature wokeism? Performative, proto-feminist posturing?
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Impermissible Good News?

Old Bathos
@OldBathos
A paper in Science magazine explores the possibility that anthropogenic warming may have staved off an ice age that was due and had been slowly beginning its return 2000 years ago. The problem with this conclusion is not that more evidence is needed or that contrary interpretations of the available data may be just as plausible. The problem is that it would be good news and, with respect to climate, that is not allowed.
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Beyond the Polls
Beyond the Polls

The Prediction Exchange

Midterms are just days away, so it's busy season for everyone in the election prediction biz. This week, there's no rant and no ads; just Henry and a couple of sleep-deprived friends to help you get your bearings ahead of another high-stakes cycle. First up is Sean Patrick Maloney—former U.S. Ambassador to the OECD and the CEO of the Coalition for Prediction Markets. He joins to explain the derivative markets that have shaken up polling. Next, Cook Political's Jessica Taylor surveys the Senate seats swinging in the balance. And lastly, Scott Braddock of The Quorum Report drops in to discuss the uncharacteristically tight races in Texas. Be sure to follow Henry on X to catch his Election Night livestream! We'll be up reporting the returns from poll closures on the Atlantic and remain until the Alaskans have their say.
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There was only one car that I ever owned that I hated.

Mark Camp
@MarkCamp
I have only ever owned one car that I hated. To keep this post on a positive note, I'll note that I’ve been blessed to own many cars I loved. The tan Maverick four-door sedan. My first. My now-you-can-finally-go-wherever-you want-whenever-you-want car. (I was 16, Kate just reminded me.) You can even drive to the shore. The green Pinto four-speed manual. I never think about the Pinto without thinking of the feel of shifting it: four whole gears, not just three. Whenever I wanted, to whatever ratio—torque or fast—I wanted.
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Freedom to Learn
Freedom to Learn

Joe Connor on ESAs, SGOs, & the EFTC

School choice is expanding nationwide, creating new opportunities for parents to shape their children’s education. Joe Connor, founder and CEO of Odyssey, joins the podcast to discuss Texas’s landmark education savings account launch, the evolution of school choice programs in Missouri, Utah, Iowa, and Wyoming, and the opportunities and challenges of the new federal Education Freedom Tax Credit. Joe explains how technology can make these programs easier for families to access, how multiple funding sources could expand educational options, and why strong implementation and accountability are essential to advancing education freedom. 🔗 Links & Resources: Visit our website: DFIPolicy.org 💡 Stay Connected: Follow us on Instagram: @DFIPolicy Follow us on Twitter: @DFIPolicy Follow us on Facebook: /DFIPolicy Subscribe to our YouTube channel (@DFIPolicy) for future episodes! 📩 Contact Us: If you have feedback or suggestions for future podcasts, please reach out to us at Podcast@DFIPolicy.org. 🎧 Thank You for Listening: Freedom to Learn is a production of the Defense of Freedom Institute. You can learn more about DFI at DFIPolicy.org. If you enjoyed this episode, please give it a thumbs up, share it, and subscribe for more insights into education law and policy. Thank you for your support!
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