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…and Just Like That, the Nord Stream Pipelines Went Kaboom!
Last night, the twin pipelines supplying Russian natural gas to Germany blew up. Specifically, they were both breached below the surface of the Baltic Sea, near Danish and Swedish territorial waters. Almost certainly sabotage, based both on the time coincidence, and a Swedish seismologist’s estimate that at least 100kg of explosive was used.
This sabotage was not a trivial exercise. It would presumably require a ROV, large underwater drone and/or a submarine to place the charges accurately. There’s a limited supply of such equipment and expertise. And it would likely require a large enough team that it will eventually leak, even if there’s no obvious forensic information to be gathered.
Qui bono? Certainly Ukraine. Russia’s ability to use energy blackmail against Germany in particular and Europe in general has been eliminated at a stroke. But they are notably short of a navy and the required equipment and experts.
By the same token, unlikely to be official Russian actions. Putin’s ability to turn the tap on and off at will was just eliminated. Much is being made by the fact that it happened the same day a new gas pipeline from Scandinavia to the mainland was opened, but you don’t generally threaten your enemy’s asset by destroying your own.
But Russia does have the necessary equipment and expertise, so there’s a chance that a military faction that wants to get rid of Putin but has no way to directly confront him would comprise his negotiating position in a reversible fashion (pipelines can be repaired).
After that, the circle gets pretty wide. The US certainly has the required abilities, as likely do the UK, France, and a few others. Any pipeline or marine salvage company probably also could pull it off in a pinch, but keeping that secret would be hard, I’d think.
So the strategic background to Ukraine vs. Russia just shifted dramatically, and we don’t yet know who or why.
Published in Foreign Policy
And maybe a bit of “depleting the surplus population” along the way.
I think the Russians are trying to do that in a more basic way.
I think both are a disaster actually. I can’t imagine them being competent enough to pull this off without it leaking. If it leaks in the next week. I will definitely apologize to you and Zafar.
Because we are so use to American presidents and administrations foregoing absolutely every strategic advantage in the name of globalism, climate change, taking the moral high ground, etc. that we don’t believe our side would recognize a strategic advantage if it bit them in the [CoC Violation that may be a synonym for mule]. It is especially hard to believe this particular Administration, which largely believes America is a wicked place that has committed many sins on the people of the world would be willing to press their advantage against a left wind progressive country like Germany. You will have to forgive us if it seems quite shocking and we have trouble believing it.
Putin Russians
Anti-Putin Russians
USA
Ukraine
Poland
Extreme Green
Did I miss any suspects?
I kinda suspect Putin Russians did NOT do it because John Brennan claims he is sure they did do it and he lies or is wrong about everything, particularly Russia. But who knows.
Add the windmill lobby to this list? I don’t trust Big Wind as far as an eagle carcass can drop. Those guys are ruthless.
Bat that thing with a 200 mph blade tip and I suppose it’ll go pretty far.
Syria planned a pipeline to Europe and they have had civil war ever since. Could be a coincidence.