Tragedy hit the once-marginalized psephological community last week when FiveThirtyEight closed shop. Henry hosts a celebration of life with two of its top contributors, Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, to discuss the former outfit’s inconceivable achievement of mainstreaming political data journalism. The trio digs into the explosive history of innovative election modeling and explores the lingering unknowns while looking to the future for a field tasked with telling the human story behind complicated quantifications.

Germany’s parliamentary elections will take place on Sunday, and for the first time since the fall of the Third Reich, a nationalist party is a major player. To start, Henry breaks down the rules of the game and assesses the polling for the many parties in the mix. Next, he’s joined by Katja Hoyer to discuss the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party’s stunning rise along with a deep dive into the factions within that will vie for control of Deutschland’s now-second largest party.

And if you’re looking for analysis as the returns come in on Sunday, be sure to check out Henry’s live stream which you can watch on X! (You’ll find it at @henryolsenEPPC.)

Conventional wisdom has it that the Democratic Party lost in November after moving too far to the left on its social and economic stances. But these are hardly conventional times, so why not let an outsider have a say? Henry sits down with Maurice Mitchell, National Director of the Working Families Party, to discuss the WFP’s aim to win elections by offering a progressive alternative to the corporate-aligned Democratic Party. Maurice takes us through the WFP’s break with Democrats in 1998 and its 26-year history; he points out the attention they’ve achieved nationwide and the obstacles they’ve faced in a rigid two-party system. Further, he disputes the calls for centrism following Kamala Harris’s defeat and illustrates how the Working Families Party platform has a future in a country hungry for change.

A quarter century after publishing his famous book about the ascendant bohemian bourgeoise (“Bobo”) upper class, New York Times columnist David Brooks has found cause to reconsider the new elite. He and Henry sit down to discuss the vanities of that insular group, the incongruence of their public espousals and private behavior, and how some form of nationalist populism was the public’s best available means of course correction.

Beyond the Polls is back! This week, Henry sits down with the Washington Post’s Jason Willick to go over Donald Trump’s haul ahead of his second inauguration. The duo speculates on everything from the president-elect’s comments about desired new territories, defense aspirations, and tariffs, before considering how all of this fits with the MAGA coalition and how his maneuvers will play with the judiciary that Trump helped build in term one.

Plus, Henry surveys the electorate’s sentiments on presidents past and present as laid out in the latest Economist/YouGov poll.

For our last journey beyond the polls of the year, we examine the Democratic Party’s options post-2024. Jonathan Cowan, president of the centrist think tank Third Way, joins Henry to explain how the left wing took over the party vessel and how they ran it off the tracks. They consider whether Democrats will get the message in time to compete in 2028 and go over the playbook necessary for those center-left candidates who are serious about winning elections.

Henry’s off for the holidays, but stay subscribed—or get started if you haven’t already!—and we’ll see you back in 2025.

This week on Beyond the Polls, Henry sits down with Tim Goeglein of Focus on the Family to cover his new book, Stumbling Toward Utopia: How the 1960s Turned Into a National Nightmare and How We Can Revive the American Dream. They dive into the early roots of the midcentury’s cultural upheaval and consider why Americans seem ready to turn back the tide.

Plus, Henry eschews Beltway insider opinions in favor of ordinary Americans’ take on Trump and Harris post-election, along with Trump’s cabinet selections, as shown in recent polling data.

It’s an all-rant episode this week as Henry breaks down the latest polling on Donald Trump’s boosted favorability. (They like him. They really like him!) Plus, we go abroad to take a look at the populist movements that are sinking European establishmentarians who were meant to keep this global movement at bay.

Want a detailed analysis of Tuesday’s red wave but don’t know whose take to take to the bank? Why not give a listen to the guy who boldly predicted the results? That’s right, our own Henry Olsen got it about as right as could be! So this week’s episode is an all-rant breakdown of who voted which way, why they went there, and what to expect from voters and the parties beyond 2024.

P.S. Henry’s off next week, but be sure to stay subscribed to Beyond the Polls (or hop on if you haven’t already), because we’re taking this podcast to 2025!

The Harris Campaign is pulling out all the stops to edge out Donald Trump in what looks set to be the closest election since 2000. Lately, these efforts have concentrated on energizing enthusiasm among black voters. To discuss the alleged inroads made by Republicans with this group and to consider whether Democrats can hold onto their usual 90+ percent hold, Henry is joined by his pal Eugene Robinson, Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist of the Washington Post. They also take a couple of pit stops in the past to assess, on the one hand, Donald Trump’s unique talents, and on the other, what Joe Biden might do to assist his vice president’s bid.

Plus, Henry dives into the early vote returns and lays out what we can and can’t know based on the models; and he takes a look at two dueling ads out of Florida that aim to sway voters for and against the state’s abortion ballot initiative.

We may be three weeks from Election Day, but votes are already being cast. To get a handle on what’s going on, Henry sits down with the foremost early voting expert, Michael McDonald of the University of Florida. They go into the history of the accommodation and the trends of both the methods’ expansion, along with the changes in how Democrats and Republicans are using the available options. They also get into the rule differences among the swing states that will affect how the returns come in on November 5th.

Plus, Henry dives into the Harris campaign’s concerns over her polling numbers with Black voters, and he zips through a lightning-round ad breakdown for key races in Pennsylvania, Arizona and New York.

Don’t count the Badger State out. It’s very much in play, but keeping up with its moving parts and pieces can be downright dizzying. Craig Gilbert of Marquette Law School and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel joins Henry to properly orient us to a state with Obama-Trump voters in the West, Anti-Trump Republicans in the suburbs, and one oh-so-narrow Senate race.

Plus, Mr. Olsen finally has some company to spread the news about the Republican Party’s novel voter identification edge. He breaks down what this best-kept non-secret means for strategists, and assesses how the Harris and Trump campaigns are responding.

Wall Street Journal’s Gerard Baker joins Henry to consider how J.D. Vance’s debate performance might have given us a glimpse of post-Trump populism, and they discuss how Trump and Harris might win undecided voters by sticking to their (wildly different) campaigning guns.

Plus, Henry draws our attention to three far-flung disturbances that have the potential to form into great October surprises; and he takes a close look at two competing ads aimed at defining PA senatorial candidate Dave McCormick based on his time in the private sector.