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…and Just Like That, the Nord Stream Pipelines Went Kaboom!
Last night, the twin pipelines supplying Russian natural gas to Germany blew up. Specifically, they were both breached below the surface of the Baltic Sea, near Danish and Swedish territorial waters. Almost certainly sabotage, based both on the time coincidence, and a Swedish seismologist’s estimate that at least 100kg of explosive was used.
This sabotage was not a trivial exercise. It would presumably require a ROV, large underwater drone and/or a submarine to place the charges accurately. There’s a limited supply of such equipment and expertise. And it would likely require a large enough team that it will eventually leak, even if there’s no obvious forensic information to be gathered.
Qui bono? Certainly Ukraine. Russia’s ability to use energy blackmail against Germany in particular and Europe in general has been eliminated at a stroke. But they are notably short of a navy and the required equipment and experts.
By the same token, unlikely to be official Russian actions. Putin’s ability to turn the tap on and off at will was just eliminated. Much is being made by the fact that it happened the same day a new gas pipeline from Scandinavia to the mainland was opened, but you don’t generally threaten your enemy’s asset by destroying your own.
But Russia does have the necessary equipment and expertise, so there’s a chance that a military faction that wants to get rid of Putin but has no way to directly confront him would comprise his negotiating position in a reversible fashion (pipelines can be repaired).
After that, the circle gets pretty wide. The US certainly has the required abilities, as likely do the UK, France, and a few others. Any pipeline or marine salvage company probably also could pull it off in a pinch, but keeping that secret would be hard, I’d think.
So the strategic background to Ukraine vs. Russia just shifted dramatically, and we don’t yet know who or why.
Published in Foreign Policy
Yes.
S.P.E.C.T.R.E.
Cut off their options to negotiate over the winter. Sorry Deutschers, it’s for a higher purpose.
How will it affect Russia’s territorial aims in Ukraine?
Russia seems far too calm about it: “Ah yes, 3 pipelines blew up. Very strange. Could it be sabotage? Well, we can’t exclude any possibilities.”
Normally they scream bloody murder to blame the US or Ukraine or NATO anytime something bad happens and threaten nuclear retaliation. Put me down as suspicious of Russia.
Best not mess with ’em.
I’m sorry. I just figured this out. If this was the Nordstrom’s pipeline and not the Nord Stream pipeline, then Macy’s is the obvious culprit.
That was my first thought. If Europe gets desperate enough this winter, they could’ve cut a deal with Putin to turn the gas back on. This removes that temptation and thus gives Putin less leverage until the pipeline is repaired.
Suppose you are a German politician committed to a hardline pro-Ukraine/anti-Russia policy, facing down angry voters unable to heat their homes this winter. Now you can shrug and say “sorry, our hands are tied, we couldn’t turn that pipeline back on even if we wanted to!”
Sometimes you just have remind ‘some people’ who won WWII…
Does Greta have an alibi?
He stated it as a fact. How will you close it when it’s under the control of Germany? she asked. I assure you, we can do it. I suppose it was a warning.
It’s an escalation. What could Russia do wrt world energy security in response?
Have you seen Tucker Carlson’s opening? He all but accuses the US, and frankly the case he lays out is scary and strong.
https://youtu.be/jLb0QeCQF_I
Big-O.
Derek Flint > James Bond.
But all they had to do was keep the valves turned off. No need to blow things up.
On the Russia-blame score, perhaps it would be useful to quell resistance to their “partial” mobilization.
That is certainly the strongest argument for Russia not being responsible. But they have wanted plausible deniability thus far for turning off the gas. First it was the turbine that needed to be repaired in Canada but the sanctions prevented it. Then they were waived. Then they had other maintenance problems and had to reduce and then turn off the gas flow. Now they can claim they weren’t responsible but there is no possibility of quickly resuming gas supply.
If there’s no possibility to resume then it isn’t leverage. Who benefits from that?
The DAVOS/World Economic Forum crowd could have outsourced this to a para-military group
Ukraine.
And her supporters. Or at least those who use her as a proxy.
Anti-Putin elements of the Russian government. Maybe they’re not so much “anti-Putin” as pro-themselves coming to power, or they are genuinely concerned with Putin’s behavior and what it means for Russia’s future.
Thanks, this is what made me think of the above angle. It weakens Putin’s position and that is good for some in Russia, maybe good for the whole of Russia.
The Russians?
The point of this is prevent the Russians from being able to restart the pipeline if Europe capitulated.
The Polar Vortex (aka winter) is already forming, come the end of October – November, and German pensioners are freezing to death because they can’t afford their heating bills (or there isnt enough supply – at any price – for everyone) the political pressure to do ‘something’ would be enormous on the German government. In such cases, when under pressure to do something, governments always pick the very worst something to do…
This takes capitulation off the table – because even if Europe capitulated to Russia’s demands, there is nothing Russia could do to ease the energy crisis in Europe.
This also another reason to disdain Justine Trudeau. The German Ambassador to Canada asked the Canadian government to license LNG ports so that Canadian natural gas could be exported to Europe by tanker… Trudeau replied that he didnt see the business case for permitting such exports.
but you are all to willing to discount actions by the actual, foul evildoers- like Russia in Ukraine…things like Bucha, Irpin, Izyum. You know, actual atrocities.
I believe there are evildoers everywhere. Including among your sugar daddies at Pfizer.
https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/canadian-lng-not-eu-energy-crisis-solution
He’s Canada’s PM, not Germany’s.
You need to double up on the tin foil- never been paid a dollar by Pfizer ( altho I would be surprised if a stock fund I am invested in didn’t have Pfizer shares).
I don’t know what I did to piss you off. I never peed in your Cheerios, but it’s clear you hate me. Probably because I voted for Donald Trump. Get over yourself.