Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
There’s a new COVID-19 projection for the US, released by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. Our friend Rodin has an excellent post on the subject, earlier today (here). Special thanks to Rodin for all of his work on this, keeping us updated with daily posts for over a month now.
The IHME has an interactive page about its projections here. It has excellent graphs and tabular information, with a drop-down menu allowing you to focus on a particular state. The purpose of this post is to provide you with a state-by-state summary.
Before getting to this, I’m going to comment on one of the IHME graphs posted by Rodin, showing their projection of total deaths in the US:
As you can see, the projection follows the expected S-curve shape, and reaches a total of about 80,000. This is significant, but is pretty close to the total for a bad seasonal flu. The shaded areas show their high and low projections, while the dotted line is their main projection. The low projection is 32,766, and the high projection is 179,726.
For the rest of this post, I’ll use their main projections, but you should realize that these are estimates within a range. You should also realize that this is just a projection, and may be correct or incorrect. The IMHE data can be downloaded, in Excel-compatible format, via a link at the bottom of their page.
Here is a chart of IHME projected deaths by state, in alphabetical order.
This chart shows total counts by state, without adjusting for population, so naturally the big states like California, Texas, and New York have the highest figures. To put it in perspective, here is the same data expressed in projected deaths per million. This chart also shows the nationwide projection at the top.
This chart allows us to see the states projected to suffer the most, with tiny Vermont expected to have the most deaths per capita, followed by New York, Missouri, New Jersey, Louisiana, and Michigan.
In addition to deaths, the IMHE projects the shortfall of available hospital beds and ICU beds. I’ve focused on ICU beds. The IMHE page lists a peak shortfall of 14,601 ICU beds, but this is because they report figures on overall peak utilization day based on total hospital beds needed (which is April 14 in their projection). The ICU bed shortfall actually peaks a few days earlier, on April 9 at a shortfall of 17,380.
Many states are projected to have little or no shortfall in ICU bed needs. Here is a chart of the shortfall, by state.
Most of the states projected to have an unusually high number of deaths, per capita, stand out on this chart — New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and Louisiana. Vermont does not stand out, because of its tiny population. But Vermont is worst in this category, having a peak ICU bed shortfall of 466 per million, followed by New York (373), Michigan (273), New Jersey (267), and Louisiana (217).
Note that the state subtotals for the ICU bed shortfall do not add up to the national total. This is because the IHME report include different projections for each state, by day, and the chart above reports the maximum figure for each state. The maximum ICU bed shortfall can occur on different days for different states, while the national total is the sum of all of the state shortfalls for each date.
Let me know if you have any questions about the IHME projections. I do not have answers about methodology, but may have the information to respond on other issues.
ChiCom delenda est.