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…and Just Like That, the Nord Stream Pipelines Went Kaboom!
Last night, the twin pipelines supplying Russian natural gas to Germany blew up. Specifically, they were both breached below the surface of the Baltic Sea, near Danish and Swedish territorial waters. Almost certainly sabotage, based both on the time coincidence, and a Swedish seismologist’s estimate that at least 100kg of explosive was used.
This sabotage was not a trivial exercise. It would presumably require a ROV, large underwater drone and/or a submarine to place the charges accurately. There’s a limited supply of such equipment and expertise. And it would likely require a large enough team that it will eventually leak, even if there’s no obvious forensic information to be gathered.
Qui bono? Certainly Ukraine. Russia’s ability to use energy blackmail against Germany in particular and Europe in general has been eliminated at a stroke. But they are notably short of a navy and the required equipment and experts.
By the same token, unlikely to be official Russian actions. Putin’s ability to turn the tap on and off at will was just eliminated. Much is being made by the fact that it happened the same day a new gas pipeline from Scandinavia to the mainland was opened, but you don’t generally threaten your enemy’s asset by destroying your own.
But Russia does have the necessary equipment and expertise, so there’s a chance that a military faction that wants to get rid of Putin but has no way to directly confront him would comprise his negotiating position in a reversible fashion (pipelines can be repaired).
After that, the circle gets pretty wide. The US certainly has the required abilities, as likely do the UK, France, and a few others. Any pipeline or marine salvage company probably also could pull it off in a pinch, but keeping that secret would be hard, I’d think.
So the strategic background to Ukraine vs. Russia just shifted dramatically, and we don’t yet know who or why.
Published in Foreign Policy
Voted for Donald as well-follow your own advice & Get over yourself. My only problem with you is I refuse to allow conspiracy nuts dominate the conservative web- we deserve better. And I love my country, unlike others.
Those were Cheerios. *trombone sound*
Gentlemen:
We targeted ultra-MAGAs should cherish common ground. I will eat those pissed-on Cheerios for the team if necessary. Try to disagree with grace. What would Wm Buckley do?
Oh, I’m a conspiracy nut because I don’t believe the bizarre conspiracy theory that Putin blew up his own pipelines.
I see.
Call him a q***r and sock him in the face?
That’s how you know someone knows a person’s full body of work. Just like an answer to What Would Jesus Do can be knock over tables and whip people.
Yes yes … I know these facts… What Justine Trudeau was getting at – is that he wanted to end the oil business not develop new markets for them – That was the business case he didnt want to make.
In a pinch we could use something like these:
https://files.chartindustries.com/14732510_LNG_ISO.pdf
While its less than ideal – its something that could get gas to Europe now that they need it. Without building a massive LNG port
We could already be – and were in the past – shipping LNG to Europe, before FJB.
Can’t you just substitute mare’s sweat?
I’ve seen that movie!
Oh. Then you know the secret that it causes a sudden unexpected comatose state. But at least it’s not pee.
I’m trying to imagine filling and loading a whole container ship with these, and then unloading and draining at the other end. Logistics nightmare. Looks like something that would make sense for shipping to remote locations, but as a bulk tanker substitute….
But for transporting LNG by sea to ports that don’t have bulk off-loading technology in place, they may need a substitute — any substitute.
De Gaulle. He said so (probably).
Germany reactivated one major terminal and is in process on converting two more. Can’t remember where I saw it, but they’ve been on it for some weeks now (hmmmmmm!).
Too bad FJB doesn’t want us to be exporting to them.
That evil, demon-controlled John Brennan* says that Russia did it.
Which means that the U.S. probably did it.
* Known perjurer and all around vile bucket of excrement who should be locked away for what remains of his life.
I believe it.
De Gaulle was an ingrate. Thousands of allied troops died to free his country from the Nazis, but as soon as the war was over, he kicked the allies out.
“Shall we take our dead as well?”
Glenn Greenwald is on it:
I found this analysis by Noah Carl on the Daily Sceptic thorough and fair. His conclusion:
As if Ukraine or Poland would (or even could) do anything without US oversight and approval.
Plus from the article:
Not their style? It’s not persuasive, given the cui bono.
What I’m getting is that many Americans find it difficult to believe that their country would push an ally in Europe under the bus in order to win a strategic advantage.
Given the current administration, I have no trouble believing it.
That’s what I can’t understand — the same people who understand that the Biden administration’s domestic policy is a horrific shambles seem to think their foreign policy is sunshine and daisies.
I believe Noah Carl is British.
To be fair, sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines is almost a caricature of neatly keeping the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down. Arguably it’s in the US’ national interest, but it’s kind of rough on the Germans.
Fan boy!I didn’t know that. But also I was thinking more along the lines of what Americans find believable when they read it (confirmation bias re ‘my country is good’) rather than who writes for the target audience.Read Clifford’s short post.
South Stream and Turk Stream might be feeling nervous….
I didn’t either until I looked him up just now, but the Daily Sceptic is run by Toby Young (of Ricochet’s London Calling podcast) and AFAIK most of its writers are Brits.
Eh, we’re just helping them achieve their Net Zero and Green Energy goals a bit faster, is all.