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A Tsunami Isn’t “Coming.” It’s Here
It’s probably unfair, even inaccurate, to describe current political trends in the US as a “tsunami” unless of course, you’re a self-proclaimed “progressive” Democrat. Tsunamis are large and highly destructive ocean waves, often caused by underwater earthquakes or volcanic disruptions. Nobody asks for nor wants to experience one, perhaps unless you’re the actual tsunami. Politically speaking, of course.
In the minds of many Americans, the coming tsunami isn’t destructive at all, despite media attempts to portray it as such. It’s restorative. And there is plenty of evidence that Democrats asked for it, starting with the consequences of an open southern border, rising crime rates amidst soft-on-crime and defund-the-police strategies, weakness abroad, lingering COVID mandates, teacher unions prioritized over students, and raging inflation at home.
Except the tsunami is underway. There’s no stopping it now.
Elections and voter registration trends in places like Pennsylvania and North Carolina – which have open gubernatorial and US Senate races this fall – portend a large political realignment in Congress and local and judicial races. Talk about “climate change.”
Republicans are registering formerly Democratic voters at four times the rate that Democrats are making the reverse conversion in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a warning sign for Democrats as they try to keep control of the U.S. Congress.
The Republican gains in Pennsylvania, home to a critical U.S. Senate race, follow a pattern seen in other states that could have competitive contests in November’s elections, as high levels of disapproval with President Joe Biden’s handling of his job are helping narrow the long-held advantage held by Democrats in numbers of registered voters. . .
In North Carolina, where a tight Senate race is expected due to the retirement of Republican Senator Richard Burr, Republicans so far this year have picked up three Democratic converts for every voter that Democrats have poached, according to state election board data. Throughout 2021, the Republican advantage was about half that.
In Florida and Nevada, the numbers of registered Republicans rose in the first few months of the year while the ranks of Democrats declined modestly.
Meanwhile, as reported by the conservative website uncoverdc.com, several local elections saw seats flip from Democratic to Republican. Even in so-called “nonpartisan” local races, such as Norman, Oklahoma’s runoff mayoral election, policies associated with Democrats – like defunding the police – resulted in upsets. Norman is home to the University of Oklahoma, the Sooner State’s third-largest city with a population of about 128,000, and one of more Democratic-friendly areas there. It is the original hometown of US Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), but don’t blame them for that. Uncoverdc.com:
…former Norman Safety Manager Larry Heikkila “won the Norman mayoral seat in the Tuesday night runoff election over incumbent Breea Clark.” According to unofficial results, he won over 53 percent of the vote. In the Feb. 8 election, he received about 36 percent of the votes, with Clark receiving 32 percent. The win is significant because it represents a sea of change in politics for the city because of calls to defund the police amid rising crime rates. Two years ago, Democrats controlled city council seats and the mayor’s office. Now the democrats hold a “small majority” and lost the mayoral seat. Heikkila says he is not a “career politician.”
School board seats also flipped. Again, uncoverdc.com:
In Springfield, MO., two anti-CRT (critical race theory) candidates unseated incumbents. Kelli Byrne and Steve Mikoski were both opposed by the teacher’s union and the local chamber of commerce. Two conservatives won school board seats in the Rockwood school district, St. Louis County’s largest public school system serving over 22,000 students. Izzy Imig and Jessica Laurent Clark won with support from conservative groups like Moms for Liberty.
Katie Lyczak also won a seat in the Wentzville school district. The district is West of St. Louis and serves about 17,000 students. The Lee’s Summit Missouri school board also racked up two conservative seats. “Anti-CRT moms” Heather Eslick and Jennifer Foley won seats.
And a judicial race in Wisconsin joined the fun. As reported by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
With support from free-spending conservative groups and endorsements from major Republicans, Waukesha County Judge Maria Lazar easily defeated incumbent Judge Lori Kornblum for a seat on the Court of Appeals for District II.
Kornblum, 65, a former Milwaukee County prosecutor living in Mequon, was appointed to the Waukesha-based seat last year and began work there in January. Lazar, 58, of Brookfield, had announced last year she would seek the job via election. She was elected to the circuit court in 2015, after five years at the state Department of Justice and 20 years in private practice.
Lazar took 158,290 votes, to Kornblum’s 131,863, good for a 55% to 45% margin of victory, according to complete unofficial results.
Lazar’s win was the second time in two years a conservative-backed challenger defeated an incumbent appellate judge appointed by Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat. Last year, Shelley Grogan, a law clerk to conservative Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley, beat Jeffrey Davis, who represented corporate clients at a major law firm and had served on the Court of Appeals for nearly two years.
Southeast Wisconsin – usually reliably or leaning Democratic territory – may be the week’s story. Republicans flipped County Executive posts in Democratic Portage and, for the first time, Kenosha County. And more.
Of course, the tsunami became evident last November in Virginia, with the GOP wins of the state’s top three elected officials – Governor Glenn Youngkin, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears, and Attorney General Jason Miyares – along with capturing a majority in the House of Delegates.
The tsunami shows no sign of abating. In fact, it appears to be growing.
Climb aboard, hoist the sail, catch the wind, and enjoy the ride.
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I sure don’t remember him promising “to govern like a moderate.”
Right. He never suggested anything of the sort, and his words and actions told us how radical he’d be. This “govern like a moderate” stuff was just the sales pitch from fake conservative NeverTrumpers. Ronaldo Magnus warned us about Biden decades ago. Those who claim to follow Reagan ignored his warnings.
I’m not sure how to respond to that. If I had a child in pain, reducing that pain — even if I couldn’t eliminate that pain — would be better. If people continue to die in road accidents, reducing that number — even if I can’t reduce it to zero — is an improvement. If there is starvation in the world, seeing the number who die of starvation go down is, again, a positive thing.
I am optimistic about the long term. I may be wrong; as I said earlier, none of us knows what will happen. But I’m hopeful and, in general, optimistic that people will gradually come to understand, and learn to remember, what works and what doesn’t. I understand if some people don’t share that optimism; there’s plenty of reason to be pessimistic about humanity. I just don’t share that pessimism.
But if the arc of America is ever going to bend upward, it’s going to have to get there by first bending less downward. That’s how big systems change, short of revolution. And the track record for revolution isn’t great. I’d rather we changed more gradually, and had a restoration rather than a revolution.
So one difference between a thoughtful optimist and a thoughtful pessimist is that we set the probability of success at different values. I put it somewhere north of 50%. I don’t put it at 100%: that would be as hubristic and foolish as putting it at 0%. None of us sees the future clearly.
So we all, all of us thoughtful people, recognize that we might win and we might lose. Given that, doesn’t it make sense to speak and act in a way that we think will increase the odds of winning?
Rather than saying “I have no faith…,” wouldn’t it be more useful to talk about the challenges we face galvanizing our elected officials and giving them the encouragement and direction they need? Wouldn’t it be more useful to communicate, to that vast sea of apolitical Americans, that voting for the Republicans is better for America than voting for the Democrats? That it isn’t really all the same?
This sounds suspiciously close to “name it and claim it” theology. “Speak it into being.”
I think when you, personally, are the prime mover of events, then there’s power in behaving and acting in a positive manner. When you have to depend on others to be the mover of events, it’s quite different.
We’ve encouraged Republican politicians for years to do the right thing for their constituents. And they don’t. What’s going to make them do it this time?
Winning doesn’t seem to matter much. Basically, Republicans winning mid-term elections is like the Detroit Lions winning a pre-season football game. In the end, it isn’t going to matter.
At this point, it’s like fighting over whether there are red towels or blue towels on the deck chairs of the Titanic.
Serious question: Which is more inspiring? Mitch McConnell’s “Oh, let’s not run on any sort of agenda,” or Kevin McCarthy’s, “Parental rights seem to be a hot button right now. (Just like ‘Repeal and Replace’ and ‘Secure the Border’ from election cycles past.)”
No, that would be a caricature of what I’m saying. I’m just noting that we are more likely to discourage people from voting for Democrats if we encourage them to vote for Republicans. Unless we honestly believe that the nation is no better off under Republican leadership than Democrat leadership, we should encourage people to vote for Republicans.
I don’t believe the nation is no better off under Republican leadership than Democrat leadership. I think that’s an absurd thing to believe.
Ah. Do you imagine that your words have no effect on others? Do you imagine that the people who read your words might not be heartened or disheartened by what you say? Do you feel no sense of responsibility for the things you say, considering them to be without consequence? Do you think that, because you can’t do great good with your words, it’s okay to do small harm?
Again, doing less harm is better. Republicans do less harm, or at least do the same harm more slowly.
I think the view popular among many here that Republicans are as bad Democrats is demonstrably, objectively wrong. It’s based on a fanciful notion of human progress, some idea that anything short of some unspecified ideal is equally bad, no matter how far short of that ideal it is.
That’s very much like the leftist notion that nothing has improved in race relations in America: once we had slavery, now we have different rates of home ownership for black and white Americans, ergo nothing has changed. That also is absurd, objectively wrong.
I’ll go even farther. Republicans are worse than Democrats. Democrats are, at least, predictably against us. Democrats stab us in the front. Republicans stab us in the back.
Better the enemy who makes his intentions clear than the betrayer who double-crosses you.
The former you can confront directly. The latter is a snake.
So what is making you give up at this point, Drew? How does anyone benefit from assuming the worst? If we fail, you can say you were right? Will that provide reward for your certainty?
One doesn’t have to indulge in excessive hope. And I would suggest we also don’t need to insist on total failure. But I do believe that we, in part, create our reality. How we choose to study an issue, looking at the pluses and minuses in today’s world, does influence outcomes, in my opinion. And when we come from a place of not really knowing, we create possibility.
He pointed out repeatedly that he won the nomination and had defeated Bernie Sanders.
I was wondering who would be attacking those evil “NeverTrumpers.” You were one of the two people that I anticipated. You rarely disappoint. I hope that the day will come when you can move forward; I don’t think that it serves you well.
No offense, but that doesn’t mean he said he’s “govern as a moderate.” Being “less left” that Comrade Bernie doesn’t really mean all that much.
The only way to confront Democrats is for them to lose and in the two party system we have that means Republicans have to win. Third party voting is objectively a loser at this time. If what you mean is we need to crash the car, have the whole thing collapse and rebuild everything from scratch, that is a very dangerous road to go down. There is no guarantee that the rebuilding will go along lines you would like. Plus you have to survive the crash, which is by no means guaranteed. Additionally it means ceding the world to China, Russia, and Iran. All three of which you have to deal with on the other side. It is far better to take half a loaf with people you agree with some of the time.
Gary, I say this with love, but you’re hardly one to be complaining about people being unable to move on.
What’s making Republican skeptics give up at this point: First, decades of experience with Republicans letting down their voters. The border was never secured, despite promises. Obamacare was not repealed or replaced. Spending has never been brought under control. Even the weak-tea “Sequester” was cast aside by Paul Ryan. But what really drives my lack of faith in the Republican Party is that no one in the GOP leadership will even acknowledge their past betrayals and failures, which leads me to believe they have learned nothing and changed nothing.
How does anyone benefit from assuming the worst? At a minimum, it spares us the disappointment of being let down, yet again, by those who have been consistently letting us down for twenty years. It’s like walking in a sketchy part of town, where it’s better to expect to be mugged. Or, like being in a relationship with a serial cheater. Do you just assume they aren’t going to cheat again? Especially when they refuse to take accountability for their past infidelity?
If we fail, you can say you were right? Will that provide reward for your certainty: I can’t speak for Drew, but I’m not looking for a reward. I’m just being realistic about what we should, and should not, expect from the Republican Party whether they win or not.
The realization that our country is broken, our own government is the source of all our problems, and switching out the D for the R will fix nothing.
One must recognize the reality of where we’re at as a nation before we can begin to change. Happy talk that the Republicans might win in the fall is not a recognition of that reality. It’s the same old cycle we’ve been stuck in for far too long.
And nobody wants to hear from gloomy ol’ Cassandra so I’ll see myself out.
Further, “I beat Bernie Sanders” doesn’t indicate a thing about how one will govern. It just means that the party machine took out an opponent and paved the way for a controllable puppet to ascend to the White House.
Republican voters are like abused spouses who keep returning to the guy anyway. He beats me constantly, but he really does love me!
Exactly. He pointed out he defeated Bernie Sanders and you and other NT interpreted that as he will govern as a moderate. Actually from the evidence after meeting with Bernie Sanders it was pretty clear he was going to govern as a leftist.
VTK, I believe your response is more moderate than Drew, especially in using the word “skeptics” instead of what I would call “cynics.” To me, there is a big difference.
“You know, it’s really my fault he hits me. If I were a better wife, he wouldn’t be this way.”
Skepticism confirmed results in cynicism. ; )
That’s pretty grim. What is your solution? In the above scenario the solution is to leave and get as far away as fast as possible. This situation is somewhat different. You have only three choices. First do nothing in which case you will die. Second take poison which will kill you quickly. Third take medicine which may kill you anyway but you have a chance of survival even if it is slim. The question is what is the path you chose to follow.
I am stealing that. Thank You.
Perhaps it is a rainstorm after drought.
I hope it is more constructive than a flash flood.
I’m looking forward to November gains.
Question: Are local elections more important for affecting conservative change than national elections?
Here me out. I tend to think that conservatives respect the “process” of governance, whereas for liberals it’s a power game, and they want to win at all costs. This makes it more difficult to affect greater conservative change on a national level, because the process has a lot of checks and balances, so conservative change happens more slowly and requires consistent governance to happen. An example is Democrats ramming through Obamacare, then accepting large (but temporary) losses because they got what they wanted. Republicans meanwhile have spent decades chipping away at bad policies like Obamacare (or Roe v Wade).
Meanwhile, in Florida at the state level we have seen DeSantis become the best governor in the country and produce massive local conservative change which in the end might be more durable, and he did it so quickly because there are fewer roadblocks at the state level.
This post gives me hope, because I’ve been giving more thought that we conservatives should focus additional time and energy winning locally and we are seeing some of the fruits of that labor. We still need to win nationally of course, and we need to strengthen state politics by weakening federal power. But there are wins to be had, and I’m grateful to see some good news.
Frankly, I’ve given up. I know nothing I can say or do will have any effect on the corrupt, dysfunctional, and foolish Republican Party. The party is run by wealthy donors and political operatives who have no interest in my opinion.
My solution is, therefore, is to give up on the Republican Party and take a spiritual lesson in this. Politics, by their very nature, are a worldly matter. There is no redemption or spiritual progression in involvement in politics. My frustration with politics should serve only to remind me not to get too worked up over worldly matters, and instead focus on my personal growth, immediate family, and pets. Also, to buy food and ammo whenever possible and keep stocked because politics like our current politics have historically had only one conclusion.
I think your assessment is unfair. What percentage of the country do you suppose holds your (and likely my) views? I’d peg it at less than 30%. Maybe lower. We are a minority. The Republican Party isn’t betraying a silent majority that they trick into voting for them- that majority doesn’t exist. The promises I see being made are candidates being relatively conservative compared to the Democrat party. I point this out all the time- you can primary Susan Collins with Trump, but then you lose tat seat to the side that hates you. I don’t like Collins, but I’d rather have her than the liberal alternative.
The reality is we have to make common cause with a lot of moderates in the middle to win nationally and that means we aren’t going to be getting our ideal candidate often. My ideal is to the right of Goldwater, Paul, and Reagan. It’s hard to convince the middle to vote for that, even rarely. To win a national election you need a bigger tent than the other side. That means some flexibility in message. I’d love to have most of the country share my views. Unfortunately that isn’t reality.
Our energy is better spent convincing the electorate to adopt our views, I’m not interested in destroying the GOP and handing the keys to the government to the Democrats. I’d rather reform it while convincing people we are right.
I keep waiting for the real cleansing flood.
What percentage of the country wants massive uncontrolled immigration, abortion on demand any time for any reason, massive foreign aid expenditures, a permanent corrupt ruling autocracy, and schools that actively promote racialism and the sexualization of children?
And yet, the Democrats stand up for those things and delivery them and more when elected.
Also, refusal to participate is a path, albeit an unlikely one, to change. Imagine if someone at the RNC discovered there was a significant number of voters aligned with (ostensible) Republican positions, but who were no longer voting or donating because they had lost faith in the party delivering on its promises. Would that not be an incentive for the party to do better? Or at least more of an incentive then all the people who will vote Republican no matter what just because the Democrats are worse? I mean, why should Republicans ever change if they can still win by not changing?