A Tsunami Isn’t “Coming.” It’s Here

 

It’s probably unfair, even inaccurate, to describe current political trends in the US as a “tsunami” unless of course, you’re a self-proclaimed “progressive” Democrat. Tsunamis are large and highly destructive ocean waves, often caused by underwater earthquakes or volcanic disruptions. Nobody asks for nor wants to experience one, perhaps unless you’re the actual tsunami. Politically speaking, of course.

In the minds of many Americans, the coming tsunami isn’t destructive at all, despite media attempts to portray it as such. It’s restorative. And there is plenty of evidence that Democrats asked for it, starting with the consequences of an open southern border, rising crime rates amidst soft-on-crime and defund-the-police strategies, weakness abroad, lingering COVID mandates, teacher unions prioritized over students, and raging inflation at home.

Except the tsunami is underway. There’s no stopping it now.

Elections and voter registration trends in places like Pennsylvania and North Carolina – which have open gubernatorial and US Senate races this fall – portend a large political realignment in Congress and local and judicial races. Talk about “climate change.”

Reuters:

Republicans are registering formerly Democratic voters at four times the rate that Democrats are making the reverse conversion in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a warning sign for Democrats as they try to keep control of the U.S. Congress.

The Republican gains in Pennsylvania, home to a critical U.S. Senate race, follow a pattern seen in other states that could have competitive contests in November’s elections, as high levels of disapproval with President Joe Biden’s handling of his job are helping narrow the long-held advantage held by Democrats in numbers of registered voters. . .

In North Carolina, where a tight Senate race is expected due to the retirement of Republican Senator Richard Burr, Republicans so far this year have picked up three Democratic converts for every voter that Democrats have poached, according to state election board data. Throughout 2021, the Republican advantage was about half that.

In Florida and Nevada, the numbers of registered Republicans rose in the first few months of the year while the ranks of Democrats declined modestly.

 

Reuters graphic

Meanwhile, as reported by the conservative website uncoverdc.com, several local elections saw seats flip from Democratic to Republican. Even in so-called “nonpartisan” local races, such as Norman, Oklahoma’s runoff mayoral election, policies associated with Democrats – like defunding the police – resulted in upsets. Norman is home to the University of Oklahoma, the Sooner State’s third-largest city with a population of about 128,000, and one of more Democratic-friendly areas there. It is the original hometown of US Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), but don’t blame them for that. Uncoverdc.com:

…former Norman Safety Manager Larry Heikkila “won the Norman mayoral seat in the Tuesday night runoff election over incumbent Breea Clark.” According to unofficial results, he won over 53 percent of the vote. In the Feb. 8 election, he received about 36 percent of the votes, with Clark receiving 32 percent. The win is significant because it represents a sea of change in politics for the city because of calls to defund the police amid rising crime rates. Two years ago, Democrats controlled city council seats and the mayor’s office. Now the democrats hold a “small majority” and lost the mayoral seat. Heikkila says he is not a “career politician.”

School board seats also flipped. Again, uncoverdc.com:

In Springfield, MO., two anti-CRT (critical race theory) candidates unseated incumbents. Kelli Byrne and Steve Mikoski were both opposed by the teacher’s union and the local chamber of commerce. Two conservatives won school board seats in the Rockwood school district, St. Louis County’s largest public school system serving over 22,000 students. Izzy Imig and Jessica Laurent Clark won with support from conservative groups like Moms for Liberty.

Katie Lyczak also won a seat in the Wentzville school district. The district is West of St. Louis and serves about 17,000 students. The Lee’s Summit Missouri school board also racked up two conservative seats. “Anti-CRT moms” Heather Eslick and Jennifer Foley won seats.

And a judicial race in Wisconsin joined the fun. As reported by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

With support from free-spending conservative groups and endorsements from major Republicans, Waukesha County Judge Maria Lazar easily defeated incumbent Judge Lori Kornblum for a seat on the Court of Appeals for District II.

Kornblum, 65, a former Milwaukee County prosecutor living in Mequon, was appointed to the Waukesha-based seat last year and began work there in January. Lazar, 58, of Brookfield, had announced last year she would seek the job via election. She was elected to the circuit court in 2015, after five years at the state Department of Justice and 20 years in private practice.

Lazar took 158,290 votes, to Kornblum’s 131,863, good for a 55% to 45% margin of victory, according to complete unofficial results. 

Lazar’s win was the second time in two years a conservative-backed challenger defeated an incumbent appellate judge appointed by Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat. Last year, Shelley Grogan, a law clerk to conservative Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley, beat Jeffrey Davis, who represented corporate clients at a major law firm and had served on the Court of Appeals for nearly two years.

Southeast Wisconsin – usually reliably or leaning Democratic territory – may be the week’s story. Republicans flipped County Executive posts in Democratic Portage and, for the first time, Kenosha County. And more.

Of course, the tsunami became evident last November in Virginia, with the GOP wins of the state’s top three elected officials – Governor Glenn Youngkin, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears, and Attorney General Jason Miyares – along with capturing a majority in the House of Delegates.

The tsunami shows no sign of abating. In fact, it appears to be growing.

Climb aboard, hoist the sail, catch the wind, and enjoy the ride.

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  1. DrewInWisconsin, Oik! Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik!
    @DrewInWisconsin

    I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.

    • #1
  2. CACrabtree Coolidge
    CACrabtree
    @CACrabtree

    I hope you’re right but the campaign for the Senate seat in Ohio (Rob Portman’s seat) has degenerated into a clown show.  

    Hopefully, Republicans in other states are doing a better job.

    • #2
  3. DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax)
    @DonG

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.

    Exactly!   When the GOP moves from talking to action I’ll believe it.  It is going to take a *lot* of corrective action to make up the Romney-Ryan party “leadership”.

    • #3
  4. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.

    Exactly! When the GOP moves from talking to action I’ll believe it. It is going to take a *lot* of corrective action to make up the Romney-Ryan party “leadership”.

    But which action?

    1. If you mean action in pursuit of traditional republican goals, I agree.
    2. If you mean moving from talking and acting in opposition to traditional republican goals, to less talking and even more action in opposition to those goals, then I disagree.
    • #4
  5. Henry Racette Member
    Henry Racette
    @HenryRacette

    I would like to live in a quasi-libertarian utopia in which everyone on the right was reliably conservative (by my standards), and the political landscape was a clear-cut showdown between heroic idealistic conservatives and evil fascistic leftists.

    Unfortunately, only half of that scenario even comes close to playing out in real life. The left certainly leans toward what I would consider evil, with its hostility to free speech, its weirdly anti-family, anti-science nihilism — its basic anti-human obsessions. The left does “wrong” right: it’s almost puritanical in its embrace of wrong-minded perversion.

    We on the right aren’t quite that good. We’re a mixed bag, inclined to compromise, less stridently idealistic, less focused on single issues, less willing to burn down the village in order to get our way.

    When the left wins big, that’s transformative, and the effects are quickly apparent. When the right wins big, that’s transformation deferred — if we’re lucky, deferred indefinitely. That’s the nature of fighting a defensive war, after all: we’re just trying to prevent everything from being taken away from us, and to hold on to what we can.

    Nonetheless…

    For all that, winning is winning. A huge Republican win in November is a huge win. Life isn’t a fairy tale, and the enemies of the Founder’s vision won’t go away, won’t stop chipping away at the foundations of our country. They’re here to stay, a cost of people being free to hold and express different views.

    But winning is winning. November has the prospects for being a win for Republicans, and a reprieve for a nation being battered by fools.

    That pleases me. And, since I know life isn’t a fantasy, and I know perfection isn’t an option, I’ll be content to celebrate a huge win in November… and then look forward to the next one.

    • #5
  6. Dotorimuk Coolidge
    Dotorimuk
    @Dotorimuk

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.

    They may tap the brakes on a couple of issues.

    • #6
  7. Columbo Member
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.

    My expectations have been moved so low by these wimps of the so-called opposition party that I will be happy just to see the gavel taken away from Pelousy.

    • #7
  8. Ontheleftcoast Inactive
    Ontheleftcoast
    @Ontheleftcoast

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.

    Exactly! When the GOP moves from talking to action I’ll believe it. It is going to take a *lot* of corrective action to make up the Romney-Ryan party “leadership”.

    But which action?

    1. If you mean action in pursuit of traditional republican goals, I agree.
    2. If you mean moving from talking and acting in opposition to traditional republican goals, to less talking and even more action in opposition to those goals, then I disagree.

    Which “traditional republican” goals? Many leaders of the Party run on great positions and then support policies that undermine that. Bush immigration policy anyone? Many go on about liberty and vote for bills that increase the scope of the administrative state. Romney is a guy that pretty much personifies one flavor of “traditional republican” and in addition to all the other damage he’s done he just helped make sure that Jackson was confirmed to the Supreme Court.

    • #8
  9. DrewInWisconsin, Oik! Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik!
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    For all that, winning is winning.

    Except when it’s not, and the Republicans just stab us in the back.

    In those cases, winning is actually just losing again.

    I know, I know. You’re Polyanna, and I’m Eeyore. I say half empty, you say full to overflowing and in fact there are four glasses!

    • #9
  10. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):

    Which “traditional republican” goals? Many leaders of the Party run on great positions

    Those great positions are exactly what I meant.

    and then support policies that undermine that.

    When I wrote “acting in opposition to traditional republican goals, that is exactly what I meant.

    Many go on about liberty and vote for bills that increase the scope of the administrative state.

    “Voting for bills that increase the scope of the administrative state” is a perfect example of “acting in opposition to traditional republican goals.

    Is it clear now what I meant?

     

    • #10
  11. Henry Racette Member
    Henry Racette
    @HenryRacette

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    For all that, winning is winning.

    Except when it’s not, and the Republicans just stab us in the back.

    In those cases, winning is actually just losing again.

    I know, I know. You’re Polyanna, and I’m Eeyore. I say half empty, you say full to overflowing and in fact there are four glasses!

    But don’t you get tired of leading with despair?

    “I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.”

    Forgive me, but that’s just absurd. Of course it will change our trajectory. It might not change our final destination, but preventing the Democrats from passing very bad laws next year will change our trajectory.

    You mean, I suspect, that it won’t arrest our decline, change our path from generally downward to generally upward. That might be true, I don’t know (and you don’t either). But it will almost certainly slow our rate of decline. There aren’t any guarantees in life: slowing the rate of our decline might be the best we can achieve, or the best we can do for now.

    But for crying out loud (I’m not allowed to use the name of Jesus of Nazareth as an expletive, so I’ll go with that), let’s enjoy the prospect of a win when we get one.

    • #11
  12. James Lileks Contributor
    James Lileks
    @jameslileks

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    For all that, winning is winning.

    Except when it’s not, and the Republicans just stab us in the back.

    In those cases, winning is actually just losing again.

    I know, I know. You’re Polyanna, and I’m Eeyore. I say half empty, you say full to overflowing and in fact there are four glasses!

    But don’t you get tired of leading with despair?

    “I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.”

    Forgive me, but that’s just absurd. Of course it will change our trajectory. It might not change our final destination, but preventing the Democrats from passing very bad laws next year will change our trajectory.

    You mean, I suspect, that it won’t arrest our decline, change our path from generally downward to generally upward. That might be true, I don’t know (and you don’t either). But it will almost certainly slow our rate of decline. There aren’t any guarantees in life: slowing the rate of our decline might be the best we can achieve, or the best we can do for now.

    But for crying out loud (I’m not allowed to use the name of Jesus of Nazareth as an expletive, so I’ll go with that), let’s enjoy the prospect of a win when we get one.

    This, and your previous post, seconded. Hope and optimism are attractive qualities in a party. And I suspect the swing voters have had enough of the whole “fundamentally transforming America” idea, now that it’s really playing out good and hard.

    • #12
  13. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    James Lileks (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    For all that, winning is winning.

    Except when it’s not, and the Republicans just stab us in the back.

    In those cases, winning is actually just losing again.

    I know, I know. You’re Polyanna, and I’m Eeyore. I say half empty, you say full to overflowing and in fact there are four glasses!

    But don’t you get tired of leading with despair?

    “I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.”

    Forgive me, but that’s just absurd. Of course it will change our trajectory. It might not change our final destination, but preventing the Democrats from passing very bad laws next year will change our trajectory.

    You mean, I suspect, that it won’t arrest our decline, change our path from generally downward to generally upward. That might be true, I don’t know (and you don’t either). But it will almost certainly slow our rate of decline. There aren’t any guarantees in life: slowing the rate of our decline might be the best we can achieve, or the best we can do for now.

    But for crying out loud (I’m not allowed to use the name of Jesus of Nazareth as an expletive, so I’ll go with that), let’s enjoy the prospect of a win when we get one.

    This, and your previous post, seconded. Hope and optimism are attractive qualities in a party. And I suspect the swing voters have had enough of the whole “fundamentally transforming America” idea, now that it’s really playing out good and hard.

    Partly we seem to be disagreeing because one speaks of relative good and one of absolute.

    I am very happy, relatively speaking, to be marched into slavery more slowly under Republicans who are habitually, automatically, progressively conceding the moral high ground to the Progressivist cult, rather than more quickly by the forces of evil themselves.

    But in the absolute sense, I am unhappy that the Republicans have not stood up for our beliefs and, when finally gaining power, led us away from slavery.

    The second illusory disagreement is about optimism.

    We are optimistic about the long term because we don’t believe that we will continue to be led into progressivist hell forever.  We just are not optimistic that being led into hell in the short term will make things better.

    • #13
  14. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    James Lileks (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    For all that, winning is winning.

    Except when it’s not, and the Republicans just stab us in the back.

    In those cases, winning is actually just losing again.

    I know, I know. You’re Polyanna, and I’m Eeyore. I say half empty, you say full to overflowing and in fact there are four glasses!

    But don’t you get tired of leading with despair?

    “I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.”

    Forgive me, but that’s just absurd. Of course it will change our trajectory. It might not change our final destination, but preventing the Democrats from passing very bad laws next year will change our trajectory.

    You mean, I suspect, that it won’t arrest our decline, change our path from generally downward to generally upward. That might be true, I don’t know (and you don’t either). But it will almost certainly slow our rate of decline. There aren’t any guarantees in life: slowing the rate of our decline might be the best we can achieve, or the best we can do for now.

    But for crying out loud (I’m not allowed to use the name of Jesus of Nazareth as an expletive, so I’ll go with that), let’s enjoy the prospect of a win when we get one.

    This, and your previous post, seconded. Hope and optimism are attractive qualities in a party. And I suspect the swing voters have had enough of the whole “fundamentally transforming America” idea, now that it’s really playing out good and hard.

    Partly we seem to be disagreeing because one speaks of relative good and one of absolute.

    I am very happy, relatively speaking, to be marched into slavery more slowly under Republicans who are habitually, automatically, progressively conceding the moral high ground to the Progressivist cult, rather than more quickly by the forces of evil themselves.

    But in the absolute sense, I am unhappy that the Republicans have not stood up for our beliefs and, when finally gaining power, led us away from slavery.

    The second illusory disagreement is about optimism.

    We are optimistic about the long term because we don’t believe that we will continue to be led into progressivist hell forever. We just are not optimistic that being led into hell in the short term will make things better.

    Going to hell at “only” 30mph rather than 60mph doesn’t seem like a “win,” and calling it a “win” seems like it might be a distraction from the larger problems that remain.

    • #14
  15. RushBabe49 Thatcher
    RushBabe49
    @RushBabe49

    Oh, I thought you meant what will be coming over our southern “border” soon.

    Never mind.

    Proceed.

    • #15
  16. Dotorimuk Coolidge
    Dotorimuk
    @Dotorimuk

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):

    Oh, I thought you meant what will be coming over our southern “border” soon.

    Never mind.

    Proceed.

    There will be no repair for that damage.

    • #16
  17. lowtech redneck Coolidge
    lowtech redneck
    @lowtech redneck

    James Lileks (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    For all that, winning is winning.

    Except when it’s not, and the Republicans just stab us in the back.

    In those cases, winning is actually just losing again.

    I know, I know. You’re Polyanna, and I’m Eeyore. I say half empty, you say full to overflowing and in fact there are four glasses!

    But don’t you get tired of leading with despair?

    “I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.”

    Forgive me, but that’s just absurd. Of course it will change our trajectory. It might not change our final destination, but preventing the Democrats from passing very bad laws next year will change our trajectory.

    You mean, I suspect, that it won’t arrest our decline, change our path from generally downward to generally upward. That might be true, I don’t know (and you don’t either). But it will almost certainly slow our rate of decline. There aren’t any guarantees in life: slowing the rate of our decline might be the best we can achieve, or the best we can do for now.

    But for crying out loud (I’m not allowed to use the name of Jesus of Nazareth as an expletive, so I’ll go with that), let’s enjoy the prospect of a win when we get one.

    This, and your previous post, seconded. Hope and optimism are attractive qualities in a party. 

    Except when its used as cover for stabbing voters in the back, which has been the pattern for decades, now.  Besides, weren’t we just admonished to ‘temper our expectations’?

    Hope and optimism requires the expectation of good faith, that minor gains are truly stepping stones rather than end goals (or pacifying window dressing), and that other goals are not willfully sacrificed for those same minor (and almost always temporary) gains.

    Sure, I would be happier with a red ‘tsunami’ than without it, but I would not be optimistic.

    • #17
  18. Annefy Member
    Annefy
    @Annefy

    James Lileks (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    For all that, winning is winning.

    Snip 

    But don’t you get tired of leading with despair?

    “I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.”

    Forgive me, but that’s just absurd. Of course it will change our trajectory. It might not change our final destination, but preventing the Democrats from passing very bad laws next year will change our trajectory.

    You mean, I suspect, that it won’t arrest our decline, change our path from generally downward to generally upward. That might be true, I don’t know (and you don’t either). But it will almost certainly slow our rate of decline. There aren’t any guarantees in life: slowing the rate of our decline might be the best we can achieve, or the best we can do for now.

    Snip- let’s enjoy the prospect of a win when we get one.

    This, and your previous post, seconded. Hope and optimism are attractive qualities in a party. And I suspect the swing voters have had enough of the whole “fundamentally transforming America” idea, now that it’s really playing out good and hard.

    Of course hope and optimism are attractive in a party. Where is it not attractive?

    34 years of parenthood and 36 years of marriage has taught me a few things. And it’s that there are many ways to screw up (and some of them are in opposite directions) and just as many to get it right (luck is a big one)

    So we slow the descent into hell, but we’re still going in the wrong direction. And were we to change course completely, hell could still be the next stop. 

    And as far as I’m concerned, lately there have been just about as many Rs hitting the accelerator as Ds. 

    National politics have become something novel to me – 100% boring. All hope lies with local elections. School boards, city councils, mayors. We’ve been blessed with a few governors who have used their power wisely. So I’d find news of more R governors to be very good news. 

    But tell me it’s going to be a wipe out and the Rs will have majorities in the house and senate? Yawn. (And I like the taste of liberal tears as much as anyone) but I’ve been there. And I’ve been disappointed too many times.

     
    Rs like to fundraise just as much as Ds. So why solve the problem?

    There are two “big” things that need to happen that would maybe turn this ship around. The border needs to be secured and we need 100% school choice. 

    Ain’t no way R majorities nationally are going to make either happen. 

    I’ve got a bunch of kids and a bunch of grandkids. “Enjoying the prospect of a win” doesn’t do it for me anymore. 

    • #18
  19. genferei Member
    genferei
    @genferei

    Henry Racette (View Comment):
    It might not change our final destination

    Who’s Mr Despair, now?

     

    • #19
  20. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    But winning is winning. November has the prospects for being a win for Republicans, and a reprieve for a nation being battered by fools.

    That pleases me. And, since I know life isn’t a fantasy, and I know perfection isn’t an option, I’ll be content to celebrate a huge win in November… and then look forward to the next one.

    I’m with you, Hank. We won’t be able to do anything at all if we don’t win. I understand why people are disappointed about the lack of productive and meaningful actions of Republicans. But continually hammering them is unlikely to bring better results. All we can do is elect them and vigorously remind them that they have a job to do. Amd hope that some of them will stand up and finally show the way. Our complaining gets us nothing.

    • #20
  21. Raxxalan Member
    Raxxalan
    @Raxxalan

    A huge win in November will be saltatory not for it effect on the Republicans but for its effect on the Democrats.  If it is big enough and seismic enough it may break the hold of the far left on the Democratic party, which would be an objective good for the country.   If it doesn’t break the hold of the left it may force a three party moment, which may be an opportunity for political realignment in the country.  If the left remains in control at a national level it probably means a coming crisis that could cause a catastrophic schism in the country, which means very bad things indeed for the future of not just the US but also the world.   

    • #21
  22. Raxxalan Member
    Raxxalan
    @Raxxalan

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.

    However I would like to propose a few words of wisdom from Dan Bongino.  “Republicans aren’t the solution to the problem but Democrats are the cause of the problem.”  A large win by Republicans won’t necessarily change the trajectory but a win by Democrats will increase the velocity.  A crash at 30mph is much preferable to one at 60mph.

    I agree with you though.  Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy don’t inspire confidence for a course correction.  

    • #22
  23. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):
    Which “traditional republican” goals? Many leaders of the Party run on great positions and then support policies that undermine that. Bush immigration policy anyone? Many go on about liberty and vote for bills that increase the scope of the administrative state. Romney is a guy that pretty much personifies one flavor of “traditional republican” and in addition to all the other damage he’s done he just helped make sure that Jackson was confirmed to the Supreme Court.

    Many conservatives on Ricochet talk about great, abstract positions but refuse to support the specific, concrete steps that would advance those positions.

    • #23
  24. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member
    MWD B612 "Dawg"
    @danok1

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    For all that, winning is winning.

    Except when it’s not, and the Republicans just stab us in the back.

    In those cases, winning is actually just losing again.

    I know, I know. You’re Polyanna, and I’m Eeyore. I say half empty, you say full to overflowing and in fact there are four glasses!

    Drew, I’m reminded of what the late Francis Cardinal George said to a group of priests in 2010:

    I expect to die in bed, my successor will die in prison and his successor will die a martyr in the public square. His successor will pick up the shards of a ruined society and slowly help rebuild civilization, as the church has done so often in human history.

    Applied to our situation, I take this as things will continue to get worse, though maybe at a slower rate. In the long run, there will be a rebuilding of a free society. Whether by G-d’s hands or Man’s, I do not know. But I’m please to have wins now when we can get them.

    • #24
  25. Miffed White Male Member
    Miffed White Male
    @MiffedWhiteMale

    Raxxalan (View Comment):
    However I would like to propose a few words of wisdom from Dan Bongino.  “Republicans aren’t the solution to the problem but Democrats are the cause of the problem.”

    I’d follow that with “Our side may be bad, but they’re [redacted] nuts!”

     

    • #25
  26. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    I think that you are right, a tsunami is coming.  “Biden Republicans” gave Biden a chance based upon his promise to govern as a moderate.  About the only thing Biden has done right is to stand up to Putin in Ukraine.  Otherwise, he has been a total mess.

    I think that the next huge strike against Biden will be on the border.  Trump was able to justify his “Stay in Mexico” policy for refugees on Title 42 on the pandemic.  Well, the pandemic is essentially over (We have .1% getting Covid in Coconino County, down from 10% over five weeks earlier this year.)  

    There is a place for a Refugee Program.  I think that it was proper to open our doors after Viet Nam fell in 1975 to the South Vietnamese Boat People.  I would add the Hungarians after the 1956 revolt and Cubans since Fidel.  Looking forward, I see a place for people who live in Hong Kong.  I would be open to Ukrainians.  But the purpose of the Refugee Program was never to admit economic immigrants, something that liberals just don’t understand.  

    We need a huge overhaul of our laws on refugees.  It appears to me that by statute, once the Title 42 option is no longer in effect, an ICE officer has only two options when a person says the magic words:  take the person into custody, or release them into the United States pending a hearing which the alleged “refugee” will likely never attend. 

    There are solutions.  First, build large detention sites, with less security than jails.  (At any time a “refugee” is willing to “stay in Mexico,” send them back, pending their hearing.)  Second, have universal ID cards needed to be employed and enforce the law on employers.   Third, have a “guest worker” program where the employer must have already purchased the “return trip” ticket” as a precondition to admission. 

    But the best solution is this:  Change the doggone statute!  Enact by statute the “remain in Mexico” provisions.  Yes, it will be hard to get through the Senate with the filibuster.  But this is not an impossible task.  I think that we could win Sinema, Manchin and Tester.  (Biden lost West Virginia and Montana by a lot, and won Arizona only by .3%)  If we have a tsunami, this would be in reach.  At a minimum, include it as a rider to budget bills, in that economic refugees are very expensive to admit.  If we would be willing to cut a break to the “dreamers,” but not their parents, the deal could be there.  In the interim, build large detention sites, have universal ID card and a guest worker program.  

    The border issue is going to crush the Democrats.  The words “Abolish ICE” will be famous last words, akin to “Defund the Police,” and “What are your pronouns?”  Your Father’s Democrats would never have been so stupid.

    • #26
  27. DrewInWisconsin, Oik! Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik!
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    You mean, I suspect, that it won’t arrest our decline, change our path from generally downward to generally upward. That might be true, I don’t know (and you don’t either). But it will almost certainly slow our rate of decline. There aren’t any guarantees in life: slowing the rate of our decline might be the best we can achieve, or the best we can do for now.

    How is that optimistic? Perhaps you’re a pessimist cosplaying an optimist. You’re trying, but “we might slow the rate of decline” isn’t a message of hope to me. The trajectory is still downward.

    All this happy talk about the coming tsunami reminds me of October 2020 — pretty sure the same word tsunami was used then, too, when there was no way in hell that the basement-dweller would emerge victorious. Until he did. (Questionably, but we’re not supposed to question it. Certainly Republican leadership won’t question it. McConnell has made that clear.)

    Show me a Republican party that puts America first. I don’t see it. Other than a handful of Republicans, regularly smeared by the establishment wing, and hamstringed whenever possible, the rest of the party just doesn’t give a rat’s ass about America. They’ll hold hands with the Democrats to send taxpayer money all around the globe, but won’t lift a finger to relieve suffering at home. And we’re suffering. As I keep saying, there’s not a single problem in America today that is not the direct result of government policy. Everything we’re suffering is due to government. The GOP should be throwing sand in the gears, but they’re not. They don’t even have an agenda should they gain the House. When the Democrats weren’t in power, they managed to gin up a fake Russian Collusion scam to harm the President and kept it going for four years. That’s when they WEREN’T in power.

    The GOP makes a lot of promises when they’re not in power, but the moment they get into power they break every promise. The differences we see in the parties are artificial constructs to be used for fundraising purposes.

    If I see Republicans actually changing the direction of this country away from certain doom, then maybe I’ll start to trust them again. I’m more than half a century old, and I haven’t seen Republicans do anything positive since Newt actually took seriously the contract with America. Today Rick Scott (about whom I’m on the fence) tries the same approach, and his own party leadership shoots him down.

    Is that a party I want to support? Not really. I’m ready for a new one!

    Sorry, kids. If we clap real hard, Tink will not come back to life. It takes a lot more than clapping.

    • #27
  28. Columbo Member
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    James Lileks (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    For all that, winning is winning.

    Except when it’s not, and the Republicans just stab us in the back.

    In those cases, winning is actually just losing again.

    I know, I know. You’re Polyanna, and I’m Eeyore. I say half empty, you say full to overflowing and in fact there are four glasses!

    But don’t you get tired of leading with despair?

    “I have no faith that Republicans winning in the fall will change our nation’s trajectory.”

    Forgive me, but that’s just absurd. Of course it will change our trajectory. It might not change our final destination, but preventing the Democrats from passing very bad laws next year will change our trajectory.

    You mean, I suspect, that it won’t arrest our decline, change our path from generally downward to generally upward. That might be true, I don’t know (and you don’t either). But it will almost certainly slow our rate of decline. There aren’t any guarantees in life: slowing the rate of our decline might be the best we can achieve, or the best we can do for now.

    But for crying out loud (I’m not allowed to use the name of Jesus of Nazareth as an expletive, so I’ll go with that), let’s enjoy the prospect of a win when we get one.

    This, and your previous post, seconded. Hope and optimism are attractive qualities in a party. And I suspect the swing voters have had enough of the whole “fundamentally transforming America” idea, now that it’s really playing out good and hard.

    We are so far removed from hope and optimism due to the inability of gOp leadership to do anything conservative with strength and intentionality (or even defend conservatism with strength and intentionality), you can’t put lipstick on that pig any longer.

    • #28
  29. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Partly we seem to be disagreeing because one speaks of relative good and one of absolute.

    I am very happy, relatively speaking, to be marched into slavery more slowly under Republicans who are habitually, automatically, progressively conceding the moral high ground to the Progressivist cult, rather than more quickly by the forces of evil themselves.

    But in the absolute sense, I am unhappy that the Republicans have not stood up for our beliefs and, when finally gaining power, led us away from slavery.

    The second illusory disagreement is about optimism.

    We are optimistic about the long term because we don’t believe that we will continue to be led into progressivist hell forever. We just are not optimistic that being led into hell in the short term will make things better.

    Going to hell at “only” 30mph rather than 60mph doesn’t seem like a “win,” and calling it a “win” seems like it might be a distraction from the larger problems that remain.

    Lileks calls it a win because it is a win relative to going to hell at 60.  Speaking in absolute terms one calls it a loss.

    Both sentences are true, given the idea that the writer intends to express.  So take your pick.

    But don’t commit the “reification of language” fallacy.  Sentences are not facts!  “It is not a win” is merely a verbal object: a sentence that expresses (is a conventional pointer to) some idea of the author. You cannot examine a sentence and discover any truth from it. It is like confusing a painting with a portrait. 

    • #29
  30. Henry Racette Member
    Henry Racette
    @HenryRacette

    genferei (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):
    It might not change our final destination

    Who’s Mr Despair, now?

     

    That’s not despair, merely humility: none of us knows what the future will bring. I can’t promise that saving America is a battle we can win. I’m hopeful, and think there’s a practical value in having and expressing hope, but I’m also mindful of the limits of our ability to predict the future.

    • #30
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