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The Latest Numbers from Arizona (Monday Edition)
As expected, the votes broke the GOP’s way in Monday’s vote counts, but not nearly enough to give Republicans the lead in the remaining races. Katie Hobbs has been projected to beat Kari Lake in the gubernatorial race. The AG and Superintendent of Public Instruction contests are still too close to call, but the latter, Tom Horne, has just taken the lead.
Onto the numbers…
Governor
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Kari Lake (R) | 49.6% | 1,244,850 |
| √ Katie Hobbs (D) | 50.4% | 1,265,331 |
U.S. Senator (race called for Sen. Kelly, Friday, Nov. 11)
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Masters (R) | 46.4% | 1,171,838 |
| √ Mark Kelly (D) | 51.5% | 1,298,562 |
Secretary of State (race called for Adrian Fontes, Friday, Nov. 11)
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Finchem (R) | 47.5% | 1,175,688 |
| √ Adrian Fontes (D) | 52.5% | 1,297,847 |
Attorney General
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Abe Hamadeh (R) | 49.9% | 1,228,597 |
| Kris Mayes (D) | 50.1% | 1,232,792 |
Treasurer (race called for Kimberly Yee, Saturday, Nov. 12)
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| √ Kimberly Yee (R) | 55.6% | 1,363,031 |
| Martin Quezada (D) | 44.4% | 1,087,042 |
Superintendent of Public Instruction
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Horne (R) | 50.1% | 1,230,694 |
| Kathy Hoffman (D) | 49.9% | 1,225,117 |
I will update with more analysis once the Arizona Secretary of State election site is up and functioning again. (It seems to have died about an hour ago.)
Update (7:45 p.m. MST): The State election website is finally working again. It lists 43,036 ballots yet to be counted statewide.
In order to win, Republican Tom Horne will only need 50 percent of the future counts to go his way; he should win the Superintendent of Public Instruction race, which bodes well for school choice.
Attorney General candidate Abe Hamadeh (R) would need nearly 60 percent of these votes to catch up to challenger Kris Mayes (D). In normal election cycles, this would be likely, but the GOP vote counts in 2022 keep underproducing night after night — and time is running out.
(Incidentally, Kari Lake would need about 74 percent of the remaining votes to win. Not going to happen.)
Update (8:10 p.m. MST): In other statewide races, the news is better for Republicans.
For the US House of Representatives, Arizona currently holds nine seats: five Democratic and four Republican.
That balance has how shifted into the red. In the next Congress, there will be only three Democrats and six Republicans.
The races were called for David Schweikert, Juan Ciscomani, and Eli Crane, who will join three other GOPers in the House.
In the State Senate and the State House, the GOP is expected to hold onto their one-seat majority in both chambers.
Previous Arizona Election Posts:
Published in Elections
Another name for conspiracy theory is spoiler alert.
Both sides should want clean elections but the doubt benefits them. European countries saw an increase in voter turnout when election integrity was increased.
There is no demonstrated election integrity. As far as I am concerned, all elections in states that have:
° Ballot drop boxes,
° “Found” votes,
° Ballot harvesting, and
° Voter rolls that are not regularly reviewed and cleaned
are illegitimate.
You can have her. However, Trump endorsed candidates lost big in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, a colorless Tony Evers won. In Georgia, Walker is in the runoff. Those are the five states that Trump won in 2016, but lost in 2020. That’s the election.
Well shoot. I went to the Secretary of State site, and then to “Unofficial results” tab and swore I saw the guy ahead.
My bad, I doubt they had it wrong.
Great question, I am not that knowledgeable of the process that would be needed, but he could sure frame the reasons for it with all the silliness that just happened with everything. It would also be the right thing to do. And it would also ingratiate him to the voting block he would need to successfully topple Sinema in ’24.
Can he do that @jon? @arizonapatriot? @garyrobbins? You guys live there – you know?
He could do that, but I doubt that he will, given that the new legislature and governor come in on January 1st.
I’m pleased that Juan Ciscomani won a House seat. After redistricting, I’m in the district that he won. I’ve been in a heavily Democratic district for about 20 years, so I haven’t had a Republican Congressman for a long time.
I am happy for you. About time.
I haven’t met him, but he is a friend-of-a-friend.
Was Jim Kolbe the last Republican of Congress for you? Martha McSally was in the Tucson area before she took the fateful Trumpy turn.
Good question. The districts changed in 2000 and 2010 and 2020, and I moved several times, so I don’t recall perfectly. I do think that Kolbe was my Congressman at one point in time, but from 2000-2020, I was in Raul Grijalva’s district. (Grijalva is a Democrat.)
My goal in 24 will be to vote against every GOPe candidate on my ballot. That is what the TDS wing taught us.
My mother has suffered in Raul Grijalva’s district as she lives in Eastern Santa Cruz County.
Some people in Ricochet will start calling you a Democrat.
Call me whatever you want.
I just checked the election figures in Arizona. It’s about 2 pm Arizona time on Tuesday, 11-15-2022. In the governor’s race, things don’t look as bad as Jon’s post indicated.
Jon’s information, as of last night, was:
On just checking now, the report is:
Notice that the estimated number of uncounted ballots is up, although an additional 9,531 votes have been reported in the governor’s race. Of those 9,531 votes, Lake received 5,925 (62.2%).
If the current estimated number of uncounted ballots is correct — 45,060 — then Lake would need to receive about 70.2% of those votes to pull even.
I was thinking about this the other day.
I am likely to vote against any Trumpy Republicans, probably by just writing in someone’s name, not voting for the Democrat. But there are several people here on Ricochet who will vote against GOPe candidates. Those are the candidate I vote for.
So, when you add it all up, it is possible that both Trumpy Republicans and GOPe Republicans will lose elections to Democrats because the Republican party is so fractured. The Democrats have divisions too. But they don’t seem a significant. And with the abortion issue reaching center stage, the Democrats could have a very successful 5 or 10 years winning elections.
We held our noses for several elections to vote for GOPe losers. When our turn came to pick the candidate, the GOPe did not reciprocate. I’m done being taken for granted.