The Latest Numbers from Arizona (Monday Edition)

 

As expected, the votes broke the GOP’s way in Monday’s vote counts, but not nearly enough to give Republicans the lead in the remaining races. Katie Hobbs has been projected to beat Kari Lake in the gubernatorial race. The AG and Superintendent of Public Instruction contests are still too close to call, but the latter, Tom Horne, has just taken the lead.

Onto the numbers…

Governor

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Kari Lake (R) 49.6% 1,244,850
√ Katie Hobbs (D) 50.4% 1,265,331

U.S. Senator (race called for Sen. Kelly, Friday, Nov. 11)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Blake Masters (R) 46.4% 1,171,838
√ Mark Kelly (D) 51.5% 1,298,562

Secretary of State (race called for Adrian Fontes, Friday, Nov. 11)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Mark Finchem (R) 47.5% 1,175,688
√ Adrian Fontes (D) 52.5% 1,297,847

Attorney General

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Abe Hamadeh (R) 49.9% 1,228,597
Kris Mayes (D) 50.1% 1,232,792

Treasurer (race called for Kimberly Yee, Saturday, Nov. 12)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
√ Kimberly Yee (R) 55.6% 1,363,031
Martin Quezada (D) 44.4% 1,087,042

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Tom Horne (R) 50.1% 1,230,694
Kathy Hoffman (D) 49.9% 1,225,117

I will update with more analysis once the Arizona Secretary of State election site is up and functioning again. (It seems to have died about an hour ago.)

Update (7:45 p.m. MST): The State election website is finally working again. It lists 43,036 ballots yet to be counted statewide.

In order to win, Republican Tom Horne will only need 50 percent of the future counts to go his way; he should win the Superintendent of Public Instruction race, which bodes well for school choice.

Attorney General candidate Abe Hamadeh (R) would need nearly 60 percent of these votes to catch up to challenger Kris Mayes (D). In normal election cycles, this would be likely, but the GOP vote counts in 2022 keep underproducing night after night — and time is running out.

(Incidentally, Kari Lake would need about 74 percent of the remaining votes to win. Not going to happen.)

Update (8:10 p.m. MST): In other statewide races, the news is better for Republicans.

For the US House of Representatives, Arizona currently holds nine seats: five Democratic and four Republican.

That balance has how shifted into the red. In the next Congress, there will be only three Democrats and six Republicans.

The races were called for David Schweikert, Juan Ciscomani, and Eli Crane, who will join three other GOPers in the House.

In the State Senate and the State House, the GOP is expected to hold onto their one-seat majority in both chambers.


Previous Arizona Election Posts:

The Sunday Wrap-up

The Saturday Wrap-up

The Friday Wrap-up

Published in Elections
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  1. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Dotorimuk (View Comment):

    You no longer have to answer tough questions, debate or even campaign to win elections, even for Governor or President. What a country.

    Well, when you’re tainted with bonkers conspiracy, are the worst possible fit for a state, or are a tiresome ass, don’t be surprised with you lose to someone who hides in the basement. Maybe reflect on how you lost to someone who literally wasn’t there. Maybe there’s a clue there. Maybe the lesson is “They’d rather elect literally anyone than you”

    What a failure of a county when conspiracy theories are a viable option to the level of incompetence displayed for two straight elections. Because the Republican lost again, it won’t be fixed.

    Another name for conspiracy theory is spoiler alert. 

    • #31
  2. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    Both sides should want clean elections but the doubt benefits them. European countries saw an increase in voter turnout when election integrity was increased. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

    • #32
  3. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    There is no demonstrated election integrity. As far as I am concerned, all elections in states that have:

    ° Ballot drop boxes,

    ° “Found” votes,

    ° Ballot harvesting, and

    ° Voter rolls that are not regularly reviewed and cleaned

     are illegitimate.

    • #33
  4. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

     

    Dang. Wish we had Lake in our state. Glad Cheney is toast as a Repub and can slink away now.

    You can have her.  However, Trump endorsed candidates lost big in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania.  In Wisconsin, a colorless Tony Evers won.  In Georgia, Walker is in the runoff.  Those are the five states that Trump won in 2016, but lost in 2020.  That’s the election.  

    • #34
  5. Quickz Member
    Quickz
    @Quickz

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Quickz (View Comment):

    Edit: Oh hey – looks like Abe won AG! That’s something.

    Where did you see Abe won? The results pages still have him behind.

    Well shoot. I went to the Secretary of State site, and then to “Unofficial results” tab and swore I saw the guy ahead.

    My bad, I doubt they had it wrong.

    Can Ducey call a lame duck emergency session for election reform? 

    Great question, I am not that knowledgeable of the process that would be needed, but he could sure frame the reasons for it with all the silliness that just happened with everything. It would also be the right thing to do. And it would also ingratiate him to the voting block he would need to successfully topple Sinema in ’24.

    Can he do that @jon? @arizonapatriot? @garyrobbins? You guys live there – you know?

    • #35
  6. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Quickz (View Comment):

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Quickz (View Comment):

    Edit: Oh hey – looks like Abe won AG! That’s something.

    Where did you see Abe won? The results pages still have him behind.

    Well shoot. I went to the Secretary of State site, and then to “Unofficial results” tab and swore I saw the guy ahead.

    My bad, I doubt they had it wrong.

    Can Ducey call a lame duck emergency session for election reform?

    Great question, I am not that knowledgeable of the process that would be needed, but he could sure frame the reasons for it with all the silliness that just happened with everything. It would also be the right thing to do. And it would also ingratiate him to the voting block he would need to successfully topple Sinema in ’24.

    Can he do that @ jon? @ arizonapatriot? @ garyrobbins? You guys live there – you know?

    He could do that, but I doubt that he will, given that the new legislature and governor come in on January 1st.

    • #36
  7. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot) Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot)
    @ArizonaPatriot

    I’m pleased that Juan Ciscomani won a House seat.  After redistricting, I’m in the district that he won.  I’ve been in a heavily Democratic district for about 20 years, so I haven’t had a Republican Congressman for a long time.

    • #37
  8. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    I’m pleased that Juan Ciscomani won a House seat. After redistricting, I’m in the district that he won. I’ve been in a heavily Democratic district for about 20 years, so I haven’t had a Republican Congressman for a long time.

    I am happy for you.  About time.  

    • #38
  9. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot) Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot)
    @ArizonaPatriot

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    I’m pleased that Juan Ciscomani won a House seat. After redistricting, I’m in the district that he won. I’ve been in a heavily Democratic district for about 20 years, so I haven’t had a Republican Congressman for a long time.

    I am happy for you. About time.

    I haven’t met him, but he is a friend-of-a-friend.

    • #39
  10. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    I’m pleased that Juan Ciscomani won a House seat. After redistricting, I’m in the district that he won. I’ve been in a heavily Democratic district for about 20 years, so I haven’t had a Republican Congressman for a long time.

    I am happy for you. About time.

    I haven’t met him, but he is a friend-of-a-friend.

    Was Jim Kolbe the last Republican of Congress for you?  Martha McSally was in the Tucson area before she took the fateful Trumpy turn.

    • #40
  11. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot) Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot)
    @ArizonaPatriot

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    I’m pleased that Juan Ciscomani won a House seat. After redistricting, I’m in the district that he won. I’ve been in a heavily Democratic district for about 20 years, so I haven’t had a Republican Congressman for a long time.

    I am happy for you. About time.

    I haven’t met him, but he is a friend-of-a-friend.

    Was Jim Kolbe the last Republican of Congress for you? Martha McSally was in the Tucson area before she took the fateful Trumpy turn.

    Good question.  The districts changed in 2000 and 2010 and 2020, and I moved several times, so I don’t recall perfectly.  I do think that Kolbe was my Congressman at one point in time, but from 2000-2020, I was in Raul Grijalva’s district.  (Grijalva is a Democrat.)  

    • #41
  12. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

     

    Dang. Wish we had Lake in our state. Glad Cheney is toast as a Repub and can slink away now.

    You can have her. However, Trump endorsed candidates lost big in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, a colorless Tony Evers won. In Georgia, Walker is in the runoff. Those are the five states that Trump won in 2016, but lost in 2020. That’s the election.

    My goal in 24 will be to vote against every GOPe candidate on my ballot. That is what the TDS wing taught us. 

    • #42
  13. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    I’m pleased that Juan Ciscomani won a House seat. After redistricting, I’m in the district that he won. I’ve been in a heavily Democratic district for about 20 years, so I haven’t had a Republican Congressman for a long time.

    I am happy for you. About time.

    I haven’t met him, but he is a friend-of-a-friend.

    Was Jim Kolbe the last Republican of Congress for you? Martha McSally was in the Tucson area before she took the fateful Trumpy turn.

    Good question. The districts changed in 2000 and 2010 and 2020, and I moved several times, so I don’t recall perfectly. I do think that Kolbe was my Congressman at one point in time, but from 2000-2020, I was in Raul Grijalva’s district. (Grijalva is a Democrat.)

    My mother has suffered in Raul Grijalva’s district as she lives in Eastern Santa Cruz County.

    • #43
  14. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

     

    Dang. Wish we had Lake in our state. Glad Cheney is toast as a Repub and can slink away now.

    You can have her. However, Trump endorsed candidates lost big in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, a colorless Tony Evers won. In Georgia, Walker is in the runoff. Those are the five states that Trump won in 2016, but lost in 2020. That’s the election.

    My goal in 24 will be to vote against every GOPe candidate on my ballot. That is what the TDS wing taught us.

    Some people in Ricochet will start calling you a Democrat.

     

    • #44
  15. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

     

    Dang. Wish we had Lake in our state. Glad Cheney is toast as a Repub and can slink away now.

    You can have her. However, Trump endorsed candidates lost big in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, a colorless Tony Evers won. In Georgia, Walker is in the runoff. Those are the five states that Trump won in 2016, but lost in 2020. That’s the election.

    My goal in 24 will be to vote against every GOPe candidate on my ballot. That is what the TDS wing taught us.

    Some people in Ricochet will start calling you a Democrat.

     

    Call me whatever you want. 

    • #45
  16. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot) Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot)
    @ArizonaPatriot

    I just checked the election figures in Arizona.  It’s about 2 pm Arizona time on Tuesday, 11-15-2022.  In the governor’s race, things don’t look as bad as Jon’s post indicated.

    Jon’s information, as of last night, was:

    • 1,265,331 votes for Hobbs (D)
    • 1,244,850 votes for Lake (R)
    • 43,036 ballots to be counted

    On just checking now, the report is:

    • 1,268,937 votes for Hobbs
    • 1,250,775 votes for Lake
    • 45,060 estimated number of uncounted ballots

    Notice that the estimated number of uncounted ballots is up, although an additional 9,531 votes have been reported in the governor’s race.  Of those 9,531 votes, Lake received 5,925 (62.2%).

    If the current estimated number of uncounted ballots is correct — 45,060 — then Lake would need to receive about 70.2% of those votes to pull even.

    • #46
  17. HeavyWater Reagan
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

     

    Dang. Wish we had Lake in our state. Glad Cheney is toast as a Repub and can slink away now.

    You can have her. However, Trump endorsed candidates lost big in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, a colorless Tony Evers won. In Georgia, Walker is in the runoff. Those are the five states that Trump won in 2016, but lost in 2020. That’s the election.

    My goal in 24 will be to vote against every GOPe candidate on my ballot. That is what the TDS wing taught us.

    Some people in Ricochet will start calling you a Democrat.

    I was thinking about this the other day.  

    I am likely to vote against any Trumpy Republicans, probably by just writing in someone’s name, not voting for the Democrat.  But there are several people here on Ricochet who will vote against GOPe candidates.  Those are the candidate I vote for.  

    So, when you add it all up, it is possible that both Trumpy Republicans and GOPe Republicans will lose elections to Democrats because the Republican party is so fractured.  The Democrats have divisions too.  But they don’t seem a significant.  And with the abortion issue reaching center stage, the Democrats could have a very successful 5 or 10 years winning elections.  

    • #47
  18. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

     

    Dang. Wish we had Lake in our state. Glad Cheney is toast as a Repub and can slink away now.

    You can have her. However, Trump endorsed candidates lost big in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, a colorless Tony Evers won. In Georgia, Walker is in the runoff. Those are the five states that Trump won in 2016, but lost in 2020. That’s the election.

    My goal in 24 will be to vote against every GOPe candidate on my ballot. That is what the TDS wing taught us.

    Some people in Ricochet will start calling you a Democrat.

    I was thinking about this the other day.

    I am likely to vote against any Trumpy Republicans, probably by just writing in someone’s name, not voting for the Democrat. But there are several people here on Ricochet who will vote against GOPe candidates. Those are the candidate I vote for.

    So, when you add it all up, it is possible that both Trumpy Republicans and GOPe Republicans will lose elections to Democrats because the Republican party is so fractured. The Democrats have divisions too. But they don’t seem a significant. And with the abortion issue reaching center stage, the Democrats could have a very successful 5 or 10 years winning elections.

    We held our noses for several elections to vote for GOPe losers. When our turn came to pick the candidate, the GOPe did not reciprocate. I’m done being taken for granted. 

    • #48
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