The Latest Numbers from Arizona (Sunday Edition)

 

Yes, Arizona is still counting. The only ballots remaining are mail-in ballots that were dropped off on election day itself, along with a minuscule number of provisional ballots. As I noted last night, from today on, these are expected to go the GOP’s way.

Sunday night’s numbers were good for the GOP, but not as great as expected. The elephants beat the donkeys by about 10 percent in this latest batch; they would have liked to see a victory closer to 15 percent.

Over the next few days, each count will favor Republicans slightly more. Onto the numbers…

Governor

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Kari Lake (R) 49.5% 1,185,584
Katie Hobbs (D) 50.5% 1,211,595

U.S. Senator (race called for Sen. Kelly, Friday, Nov. 11)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Blake Masters (R) 46.3% 1,115,654
√ Mark Kelly (D) 51.6% 1,243,400

Secretary of State (race called for Adrian Fontes, Friday, Nov. 11)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Mark Finchem (R) 47.4% 1,119,888
√ Adrian Fontes (D) 52.6% 1,243,076

Attorney General

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Abe Hamadeh (R) 49.8% 1,170,070
Kris Mayes (D) 50.2% 1,181,398

Treasurer (race called for Kimberly Yee, Saturday, Nov. 11)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
√ Kimberly Yee (R) 55.5% 1,299,047
Martin Quezada (D) 44.5% 1,041,785

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Tom Horne (R) 50.0% 1,172,816
Kathy Hoffman (D) 50.0% 1,173,408

So, where do we stand at 6:50 p.m. MST Sunday? Kari Lake did well but underperformed on today’s count. She will need an amazing showing over the next few days. As of today, she has gone from 1.4% down to 1% behind Katie Hobbs (D). This race now leans D.

Abe Hamadeh (R) is now 0.4 percent behind Kris Mayes (D) and is likely to win the AG race.

Tom Horne (R) is a mere 592 votes behind incumbent Kathy Hoffman (D) and is nearly sure to be our next Superintendent of Public Instruction.

An estimated 160,959 ballots are yet to be counted. Kari Lake needs to win 58 percent of these outstanding ballots to take the race. Hamadeh needs 54 percent to break his way. Horne needs 50.2 percent.


Previous Arizona Election Posts:

The Saturday Wrap-up

The Friday Wrap-up

Published in Elections
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  1. colleenb Member
    colleenb
    @colleenb

    Thanks for the update Jon.

    • #1
  2. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    Hold on. Let me go look for my shocked face that the Democrats stole another one. 

    So they counted something like 60% on one day but need a week to count the other 40%? Is there a known amount left to count? I saw an estimate of what’s left. If they don’t say what’s left, it can be whatever is needed. 

    • #2
  3. CarolJoy, Not So Easy To Kill Coolidge
    CarolJoy, Not So Easy To Kill
    @CarolJoy

    An app keeping track of the numbers and percentages of the ballot count in Arizona:

    https://apps.arizona.vote/info/bps/2022-general-election/33/0

    As of 18:04 mountain time, this is the data for Maricopa:

    11/13/2022 18:24 Maricopa 1,474,943 8,400 7,885 78,000 94,285 93.99 %
    • #3
  4. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):
    So they counted something like 60% on one day but need a week to count the other 40%? Is there a known amount left to count? I saw an estimate of what’s left. If they don’t say what’s left, it can be whatever is needed. 

    Right. Last I checked they were refusing to tell us how many were left to count.

    How weirdly coincidental that the places the Dems stole elections in 2020 turn out to be the same places they stole elections in 2022.

    Dems are election deniers. They deny us fair and secure elections.

    Oh, by the way. Don’t get your hopes up for the Georgia run-off or the 2024 elections. Votes don’t matter anymore.

    • #4
  5. WI Con Member
    WI Con
    @WICon

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):
    So they counted something like 60% on one day but need a week to count the other 40%? Is there a known amount left to count? I saw an estimate of what’s left. If they don’t say what’s left, it can be whatever is needed.

    Right. Last I checked they were refusing to tell us how many were left to count.

    How weirdly coincidental that the places the Dems stole elections in 2020 turn out to be the same places they stole elections in 2022.

    Dems are election deniers. They deny us fair and secure elections.

    Oh, by the way. Don’t get your hopes up for the Georgia run-off or the 2024 elections. Votes don’t matter anymore.

    I’m guessing that ‘Cocaine Mitch’ and Kevin McCarthy have a greater probability of winning their leadership elections than Kari Lake winning hers.

    • #5
  6. db25db Lincoln
    db25db
    @db25db

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):
    So they counted something like 60% on one day but need a week to count the other 40%? Is there a known amount left to count? I saw an estimate of what’s left. If they don’t say what’s left, it can be whatever is needed.

    Right. Last I checked they were refusing to tell us how many were left to count.

    How weirdly coincidental that the places the Dems stole elections in 2020 turn out to be the same places they stole elections in 2022.

    Dems are election deniers. They deny us fair and secure elections.

    Oh, by the way. Don’t get your hopes up for the Georgia run-off or the 2024 elections. Votes don’t matter anymore.

    Doug Ducey and Brian Kemp didn’t have this problem.

    • #6
  7. Titus Techera Contributor
    Titus Techera
    @TitusTechera

    Indeed. Kimberly Yee is winning her election by a comfortable quarter a million votes / 10% of the vote. She’s going back to State Treasurer with no trouble from the vote counting. There’s something outrageous in the incompetence with which elections are being handled, but there are also apparently a significant number of split tickets. Yee won more votes than anyone else, R or D, in the statewide or federal election. 

    • #7
  8. BDB Coolidge
    BDB
    @BDB

    Thank you for the updates.  I admit that I’m watching out of one eye. 

    How derivative this all is now, with the necessity to prognosticate and track “performance” across days of counting, when all the action should already be over.

    • #8
  9. Old Bathos Moderator
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    I will not claim there was cheating–the billions spent to build a left-wing political machine was well spent and the Democrats are now vastly better mobilized where they need to be.  

    But if there were cheating, the clown show that administers elections in AZ would be totally incapable of detecting it.  And the AZ GOP will likely continue to lose needlessly from defections by “mavericks”, a problem that the other side does not have.

    • #9
  10. Old Bathos Moderator
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    I have perused numbers and I do not see anything obviously aberrant.  Turnout looks like around 56% of registered voters.  This looks like the new post-COVID/mail-happy off-year norm.  

    Democrats in AZ have about 2-3 percentage points fewer than GOP but a third of AZ voters are not registered in either party.  Barring some specific evidence of fraud, better organization, money, ground troops, and banking lots of votes early could explain the outcome. 

    A red wave kinda requires showing up to vote.  There is no evidence that Republicans turned out at a higher rate than the other guys despite the political and economic climate.

    Maricopa needs to give up on the idea of everyone in that giant county being able to vote anywhere given the complexities of customizing a ballot for local offices.  It seems to cause serious logistical issues when counting.

    I was assured by one AZ Republican on Ricochet that the 2020 result was accurate and spot on.  However, running the same mess through the same technology and getting the result is not as reassuring as he seems to think. 

    The somewhat less-than-Prussian efficiency of Katie Hobbs running the state voting authority while running for governor has an odor all its own. But the stench of failure from GOP leadership is stronger.  If Trump is responsible in any way for deterring Ducey from running for Senate, then that is another big reason to shut up and get off the stage.

     

    • #10
  11. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member
    MWD B612 "Dawg"
    @danok1

    Old Bathos (View Comment):
    The somewhat less-than-Prussian efficiency of Katie Hobbs running the state voting authority while running for governor has an odor all its own.

    I don’t accept this from Stacey Abrams. I won’t accept it from (or about) Kari Lake.

    • #11
  12. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    Old Bathos (View Comment):
    I have perused numbers and I do not see anything obviously aberrant.  Turnout looks like around 56% of registered voters.  This looks like the new post-COVID/mail-happy off-year norm.  

    I’m with others I’ve seen on the internet, at this point I don’t trust any of it. Kari Lake winning would be suspicious too.

    • #12
  13. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):

    Old Bathos (View Comment):
    I have perused numbers and I do not see anything obviously aberrant. Turnout looks like around 56% of registered voters. This looks like the new post-COVID/mail-happy off-year norm.

    I’m with others I’ve seen on the internet, at this point I don’t trust any of it. Kari Lake winning would be suspicious too.

    I’m glad I left Maricopa County  and moved back to Utah. We had little difficulty defeating Evan McMullin.

    • #13
  14. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    As Jesse Waters mentioned on Fox, Democrats have created a system based on ballots, not votes. Voting no longer matters in many states, and may no longer matter as a nation either. What matters is the number of ballots, pre-filled for Democrats, the party can produce. As Joe Biden’s puppet masters showed, all you have to do is steal the vote in specific places (where the election rules are loose enough) and you can “win” an election.

    Your vote doesn’t count in Wisconsin, in Georgia, in Pennsylvania, in Arizona, in Nevada, or in Michigan. Probably not in Minnesota or Illinois either. Certainly not in Commiefornia. Probably not in Washington or Oregon. Not in New York.

    Heck, it’s getting harder to figure out where votes actually do matter. Florida?

    Any state that did not have its results by Wednesday morning is guilty of fraud. Prove me wrong.

    • #14
  15. Albert Arthur Coolidge
    Albert Arthur
    @AlbertArthur

    They will continue counting until the Democrat wins. I’m calling it now — Joe Biden will be re-elected in 2024.

    • #15
  16. CarolJoy, Not So Easy To Kill Coolidge
    CarolJoy, Not So Easy To Kill
    @CarolJoy

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):
    So they counted something like 60% on one day but need a week to count the other 40%? Is there a known amount left to count? I saw an estimate of what’s left. If they don’t say what’s left, it can be whatever is needed.

    Right. Last I checked they were refusing to tell us how many were left to count.

    How weirdly coincidental that the places the Dems stole elections in 2020 turn out to be the same places they stole elections in 2022.

    Dems are election deniers. They deny us fair and secure elections.

    Oh, by the way. Don’t get your hopes up for the Georgia run-off or the 2024 elections. Votes don’t matter anymore.

    Until we audit the actual hackability of all data sites which  the US Fed government uses so election officials can deal with elections, there will be NO fair elections. (And the system described here does not even mean officials are knowingly participating!)

    Over on twitter, someone was implying that the military vote collection system is the one place where we don’t have any worries.

    It is the opposite of that, as the following video indicates:

     Run time is less than 4:20:

    https://youtube.com/video/KPsZlp2IXPo/
    https://youtube.com/video/KPsZlp2IXPo/

    • #16
  17. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Albert Arthur (View Comment):

    They will continue counting until the Democrat wins. I’m calling it now — Joe Biden will be re-elected in 2024.

    Good to see you around “Albert.”

    And yes, you’re right. Because nobody on the right has the balls to stop this. Votes don’t matter anymore. The only thing that matters is producing enough ballots.

    • #17
  18. J. D. Fitzpatrick Member
    J. D. Fitzpatrick
    @JDFitzpatrick

    Old Bathos (View Comment):

    I have perused numbers and I do not see anything obviously aberrant. Turnout looks like around 56% of registered voters. This looks like the new post-COVID/mail-happy off-year norm.

    Democrats in AZ have about 2-3 percentage points fewer than GOP but a third of AZ voters are not registered in either party. Barring some specific evidence of fraud, better organization, money, ground troops, and banking lots of votes early could explain the outcome.

    A red wave kinda requires showing up to vote. There is no evidence that Republicans turned out at a higher rate than the other guys despite the political and economic climate.

    Maricopa needs to give up on the idea of everyone in that giant county being able to vote anywhere given the complexities of customizing a ballot for local offices. It seems to cause serious logistical issues when counting.

    I was assured by one AZ Republican on Ricochet that the 2020 result was accurate and spot on. However, running the same mess through the same technology and getting the result is not as reassuring as he seems to think.

    The somewhat less-than-Prussian efficiency of Katie Hobbs running the state voting authority while running for governor has an odor all its own. But the stench of failure from GOP leadership is stronger. If Trump is responsible in any way for deterring Ducey from running for Senate, then that is another big reason to shut up and get off the stage.

    Well, at this point, according to someone looking at the tallies (I know, not the best source), more people voted for the Republican candidate for Treasurer than voted for Kari Lake.

    It’s certainly worth looking into.

    If it’s true, I would like to see the number of elections prior to 2016 where this was the case with 90% or more of the votes counted.

    • #18
  19. Old Bathos Moderator
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Old Bathos (View Comment):
    The somewhat less-than-Prussian efficiency of Katie Hobbs running the state voting authority while running for governor has an odor all its own.

    I don’t accept this from Stacey Abrams. I won’t accept it from (or about) Kari Lake.

    To be clear, my insinuation about M. Hobbs was not direct involvement with cheating so much as a bias in favor of chaos.
    Clean voting rolls, uniform reliable voting methods, strict accounting and uncomplicated, accurate reporting would have kept Al Franken out of the Senate, Christine Gregoire out of the WA gov chair, swung WI to Bush in 2000 etc. Sloppy, messy, drawn out, confusing confers an edge on the side that keeps a few stray boxes of ballots up the sleeve for when it’s close.

    • #19
  20. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member
    MWD B612 "Dawg"
    @danok1

    Old Bathos (View Comment):

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Old Bathos (View Comment):
    The somewhat less-than-Prussian efficiency of Katie Hobbs running the state voting authority while running for governor has an odor all its own.

    I don’t accept this from Stacey Abrams. I won’t accept it from (or about) Kari Lake.

    To be clear, my insinuation about M. Hobbs was not direct involvement with cheating so much as a bias in favor of chaos.
    Clean voting rolls, uniform reliable voting methods, strict accounting and uncomplicated, accurate reporting would have kept Al Franken out of the Senate, Christine Gregoire out of the WA gov chair, swung WI to Bush in 2000 etc. Sloppy, messy, drawn out, confusing confers an edge on the side that keeps a few stray boxes of ballots up the sleeve for when it’s close.

    Ah, I understand now. Comment withdrawn.

    • #20
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