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The Latest Numbers from Arizona (Saturday Edition)
As mentioned in last night’s post, Arizona has now counted all the mail-in ballots received before election day and the regular election-day ballots. As of tonight, we are counting mostly “late earlies” — those mail-in ballots dropped off at polling places on election day itself.
Traditionally these have swung far to the right; we’re talking 75% GOP vs. 25% Democrat. Completely lopsided. Tonight was when the count was supposed to flip into the red column.
Yep. All but guaranteed. Money in the bank. A done deal.
It didn’t happen. In fact, after Saturday’s count, the percentages shown below are exactly the same as last night.
Still, I’ve repeatedly been assured that it will happen beginning Sunday night. Stone-cold lock. For real, this time.
While the folks I bounce ideas off are data-hound experts without no motivation to deceive, they said yesterday that Saturday would be the day. So, I still believe Lake, Hamadeh, and Horne will ultimately win — only slightly less than I used to.
Governor
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Kari Lake (R) | 49.3% | 1,122,319 |
| Katie Hobbs (D) | 50.7% | 1,156,448 |
U.S. Senator (race called for Sen. Kelly, Friday, Nov. 11)
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Masters (R) | 46.1% | 1,055,566 |
| √ Mark Kelly (D) | 51.8% | 1,186,646 |
Secretary of State (race called for Adrian Fontes, Friday, Nov. 11)
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Finchem (R) | 47.2% | 1,060,754 |
| √ Adrian Fontes (D) | 52.8% | 1,186,654 |
Attorney General
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Abe Hamadeh (R) | 49.5% | 1,107,974 |
| Kris Mayes (D) | 50.5% | 1,128,784 |
Treasurer (race called for Kimberly Yee, Saturday, Nov. 11)
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| √ Kimberly Yee (R) | 55.3% | 1,231,409 |
| Martin Quezada (D) | 44.7% | 995,535 |
Superintendent of Public Instruction
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Horne (R) | 49.8% | 1,111,530 |
| Kathy Hoffman (D) | 50.2% | 1,120,333 |
So, where do we stand at 8 p.m. MST Saturday? I still expect the close races (<1.5%) to move into the GOP column. That means Kari Lake should be Arizona’s next Governor, Abe Hamadeh should be our next Attorney General, and Tom Horne should be our next Superintendent of Public Instruction. (In last night’s post, I used “will” instead of “should.”)
Following Friday’s counts, winners were projected in three races: U.S. Senator Mark Kelly (D) defeated Blake Masters (R); Adrian Fontes (D) defeated Mark Finchem (R); and Kimberly Yee (R) defeated Martin Quezada (D).
An estimated 266,763 ballots are yet to be counted. Again, these are expected to favor GOP candidates, especially the 194,885 from Maricopa County.
Kari Lake needs to win ~56 percent of these outstanding ballots to win the race. Hamadeh needs ~55 percent to break his way. Horne needs ~52 percent.
I still believe all three will happen. I’m just more cautious about my prediction.
Published in General
I am sorry, but I don’t trust the system.
As the school kids used to say, “Fingers crossed.”
Ain’t buying anything until hands are on Bibles.
Lots of Dems choose not to use Bibles. If Obama could have a third term, I bet he’d place his left hand on DREAMS FROM MY FATHER.
@johngabriel, can you tell us more about the history of Runbeck printing in the Arizona election? Linking to my post on the topic earlier.
Third World voting system ya got there. Have they found enough votes for that dynamic go-getter Katie Hobbled yet?
They’re still printing. Another steal. The GOP will say we didn’t like our candidate anyway, not the right type you know, so it’s good she lost. No need to fix this mess. The uniparty gets the desired result.
Either Dems haven’t suffered enough or they cheated. I guess they need to suffer some more.
And the clearly-addled Hobbs is overseeing the elections, right? Because of her elected position, right? The one who DIDN’T recuse herself from an obvious conflict of interest? The one who didn’t feel a need to do jack ____ as far as campaigning or debating her opponent. Maybe she knew she didn’t have to.
At least they finally released the Coolidge results.
From what I understand from reading stuff from AZ GOP folks, it’s a FIFO method of post-election counting; First In, First Out. The first groups of ballots that arrived at the main counting centers came from more Blue areas (more urban/central, didn’t have as much in-person voting, drop-offs, or have problems with printers – yeah that last one is strange…) they will be the first counted and released as well. The Red areas are less urban, had issues that created long lines and kept them open late, and otherwise were slower in getting their ballots to the counting center, therefore they will all be counted after the Blue areas.
Even that Saturday dump, when it was revealed where it came from, was predominantly Blue areas. There remains a large number of ballots to be counted from areas that break aggressively to the Right.
They should come, and as @jon says, they should cause several flips.
The upcoming word to get ready for is, “AJUDICATION,” or possibly, “RECOUNT”
What all this means is hopefully AZ can fix their election laws with R Gov. and Leg. NV, PA, WI, and MI are lost – the Right must play by the New Rules in those states. They are also kinda blue, and on that note a relaxing album for the rest of your day:
No, Hobbs is not really overseeing the election. The vote counts are done by county officials.
As Secretary of State, Hobbs is responsible for adding up the vote totals reported by the counties. This is some involvement, but not overseeing the main job of counting the votes.
I see. No “buck stops here” for Hobbsie, right?
More nonsense from Arizona.
https://www.uncoverdc.com/2022/11/10/maricopa-county-election-judge-speaks-out/
Election judge Michele Swinick has come forward to report what she experienced in Maricopa County on Election Day. She worked Election Day as a judge at the Islamic Voting Center in Scottsdale, AZ. She reports that the center is heavily Republican, with “no party” designated voters as the second most populous demographic, followed by very few democrat voters, evidenced by the fact that she checked in very few of them on Election Day. She reports she spent the entire day checking in voters.
Michele has also been threatened by her supervisor (first name Timothy) for speaking out about what she has witnessed. He called her and said they “have been scouring social media and saw posts (that Michele) would be going on several podcasts to report information about the election.” Michele told UncoverDC that she was questioned about her podcast, what it’s about, and that they accused her of already appearing on other podcasts earlier in the day, even though, at the time, that was untrue. As per Swinick, her supervisor told her, “if I find out you have gone on any podcasts, I will terminate you.”
UncoverDC asked Michele for her opinion of what was going on, given her experience. She said:
“In my opinion, the machines were programmed to do this, and it was all planned. The process and narrative, both machines and people. It was brilliantly done. They isolated the ballots to replace or not count them in 223 bags. The hard part for them in 2020 and during the primary was getting the ballots to match their manufactured machine count. This way, they have everything isolated in the bags.”
Michele will be appearing today at 5 pm ET on the Zelenko Report. You can watch it by clicking this link.
I wonder what next Saturday’s update will bring and how many votes still won’t be counted?
Count long, count wrong!
My question to Jon is, what happened to Arizona? Why are these so close?
It looks like your native land is turning Left fast.
Someone just posted this:
Maricopa County in these presidential elections:
2004: R+15
2012: R+11
2020: D+2
2022 Senate race: D+8.
…
Compare that to my congressional district:
2004: R+46
2012: R+47
2020: R+56
2022: R+54 (Hmm, I guess even Southeast Missouri is slipping a bit as the Democrat candidate increased the percentage from 21.4% to 21.9%. Yikes!)
MO-8 voted Republican 76.0%
Compare that to its adjacent districts, with votes mostly counted:
IL-12 — 75.4% Republican
KY-1 — 74.9% Republican
AR-1 — 74.2% Republican
TN-8 — 73.9% Republican
MO-4 — 71.3% Republican
MO-7 — 70.9% Republican
MO-3 — 65.2% Republican
MO-2 — 54.9% Republican (barely appears to tough this suburban St. Louis district)
It’s quite the divided country.