The Latest Numbers from Arizona (Monday Edition)

 

As expected, the votes broke the GOP’s way in Monday’s vote counts, but not nearly enough to give Republicans the lead in the remaining races. Katie Hobbs has been projected to beat Kari Lake in the gubernatorial race. The AG and Superintendent of Public Instruction contests are still too close to call, but the latter, Tom Horne, has just taken the lead.

Onto the numbers…

Governor

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Kari Lake (R) 49.6% 1,244,850
√ Katie Hobbs (D) 50.4% 1,265,331

U.S. Senator (race called for Sen. Kelly, Friday, Nov. 11)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Blake Masters (R) 46.4% 1,171,838
√ Mark Kelly (D) 51.5% 1,298,562

Secretary of State (race called for Adrian Fontes, Friday, Nov. 11)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Mark Finchem (R) 47.5% 1,175,688
√ Adrian Fontes (D) 52.5% 1,297,847

Attorney General

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Abe Hamadeh (R) 49.9% 1,228,597
Kris Mayes (D) 50.1% 1,232,792

Treasurer (race called for Kimberly Yee, Saturday, Nov. 12)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
√ Kimberly Yee (R) 55.6% 1,363,031
Martin Quezada (D) 44.4% 1,087,042

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Tom Horne (R) 50.1% 1,230,694
Kathy Hoffman (D) 49.9% 1,225,117

I will update with more analysis once the Arizona Secretary of State election site is up and functioning again. (It seems to have died about an hour ago.)

Update (7:45 p.m. MST): The State election website is finally working again. It lists 43,036 ballots yet to be counted statewide.

In order to win, Republican Tom Horne will only need 50 percent of the future counts to go his way; he should win the Superintendent of Public Instruction race, which bodes well for school choice.

Attorney General candidate Abe Hamadeh (R) would need nearly 60 percent of these votes to catch up to challenger Kris Mayes (D). In normal election cycles, this would be likely, but the GOP vote counts in 2022 keep underproducing night after night — and time is running out.

(Incidentally, Kari Lake would need about 74 percent of the remaining votes to win. Not going to happen.)

Update (8:10 p.m. MST): In other statewide races, the news is better for Republicans.

For the US House of Representatives, Arizona currently holds nine seats: five Democratic and four Republican.

That balance has how shifted into the red. In the next Congress, there will be only three Democrats and six Republicans.

The races were called for David Schweikert, Juan Ciscomani, and Eli Crane, who will join three other GOPers in the House.

In the State Senate and the State House, the GOP is expected to hold onto their one-seat majority in both chambers.


Previous Arizona Election Posts:

The Sunday Wrap-up

The Saturday Wrap-up

The Friday Wrap-up

Published in Elections
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  1. HeavyWater Reagan
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    It seems that the McCain voters control who wins and who loses in Arizona.  

    • #1
  2. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Kari Lake told us to “Get the Hell Out!”  We did, and Kari Lake lost.

    • #2
  3. Quickz Member
    Quickz
    @Quickz

    Oh no. Well, that means 2024 and 2026 elections will likely be run in the same way – very small chance for reform now with no Gov. to sign the bills.

    I wonder if Ducey’s shipping container wall and his other efforts at the border will be taken away as well.

    Thank goodness they got the school vouchers through this last session.

    Maybe AZ will celebrate the nation’s Semiquincentennial year by flipping the Gov. to GOP.

    Edit: Oh hey – looks like Abe won AG! That’s something.

    • #3
  4. Aruges Member
    Aruges
    @Aruges

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    It seems that the McCain voters control who wins and who loses in Arizona.

    Given that most of AZ’s Republican voters have voted for McCain at least once in their life, this is an obvious statement. Telling any chunk of voters you don’t want their vote is a bad idea, doubly so when they are part of your voting coalition.

    • #4
  5. Aruges Member
    Aruges
    @Aruges

    Quickz (View Comment):

    Oh no. Well, that means 2024 and 2026 elections will likely be run in the same way – very small chance for reform now with no Gov. to sign the bills.

    I wonder if Ducey’s shipping container wall and his other efforts at the border will be taken away as well.

    Thank goodness they got the school vouchers through this last session.

    Maybe AZ will celebrate the nation’s Semiquincentennial year by flipping the Gov. to GOP.

    Edit: Oh hey – looks like Abe won AG! That’s something.

    Anything that was an executive action will almost certainly go away with the party switch.

    Can Ducey call a lame duck emergency session for election reform? Might not matter if he could though. The brainworms  in AZ R’s over how to properly count mail ballots seem insurmountable.

    • #5
  6. Aruges Member
    Aruges
    @Aruges

    Quickz (View Comment):

    Oh no. Well, that means 2024 and 2026 elections will likely be run in the same way – very small chance for reform now with no Gov. to sign the bills.

    I wonder if Ducey’s shipping container wall and his other efforts at the border will be taken away as well.

    Thank goodness they got the school vouchers through this last session.

    Maybe AZ will celebrate the nation’s Semiquincentennial year by flipping the Gov. to GOP.

    Edit: Oh hey – looks like Abe won AG! That’s something.

    Where did you see Abe won? The results pages still have him behind.

    • #6
  7. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    Congratulations. You’re a third world state. As a wise member of Ricochet said, Arizona should be demoted to territory status until it can get its act together.

    • #7
  8. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Kari Lake told us to “Get the Hell Out!” We did, and Kari Lake lost.

    I agree with her. 

    • #8
  9. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    The top 5 Arizona statewide races are the U.S. Senate, Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General and State Treasurer.  (Term Limited Arizona Republican Governor Doug Ducey was the State Treasurer before his two terms as Governor.)

    The Democrats won three of the first four races by 126,724, 20,481, and 122,159 votes and are winning the AG post by 4,195 votes, for a total sum of 273,559 votes combined.

    Republican Kimberly Yee won the State Treasurer job, all by herself, by 275,989 votes.  Kimberly Yee’s margin of victory was bigger than the margin of victory of the top four Democrats combined.

    What did the first four state-wide Republicans have in common?  They were all endorsed by Trump, and they eked out plurality wins in the primary election.  And Kimberly Yee?  She was not endorsed by Trump; Trump did not endorse anyone in the State Treasurer Race.  She didn’t say nasty things about Trump; she said nice things about Trump.  But she did NOT dispute the results of the 2020 election either.

    Kimberly Yee is a run-of-the-mill GOPe, Pro-Life, Pro-Gun, Low Taxes, Low Regulation Republican.  But she did not deny the results of the 2020 election, while the Republican candidates for Senate, Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General were all Election Deniers, which was the requirement of any Trump endorsement.

    Kimberly Yee is winning with 55.6% of the vote.  John McCain had six statewide races.  His lowest vote percentage was 56%.  Statewide Republicans usually win in Arizona by around 55% of the vote.  That’s what we do; that is how Arizona rolls.  We are Republicans.  For example, both of the elected members of the Corporation Commission (which regulates utilities) were won by Republicans.  (You might think that Democrats would do well in regulating utilities.  Nah.  Again, Arizona is a Republican state, or at least we used to be a Republican State before Trump emerged.)

    I voted for all of the Republicans in state-wide races, who weren’t endorsed by Trump, with the exception of the Superintendent of Public Instruction.  (I had met Tom Horne and contributed to him when he ran for Attorney General.  But he has pervasive ethics problems, and lost the AG primary 8 years ago.  I didn’t vote for him this time during his comeback race.)  But I happily voted for Kimberly Yee and the Republicans who were running for the Corporation Commission, as well as the State Mine Inspector (which was unopposed this year).

    • #9
  10. Aruges Member
    Aruges
    @Aruges

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Kari Lake told us to “Get the Hell Out!” We did, and Kari Lake lost.

    I agree with her.

    Then enjoy your duly earned Hobbs governorship.

    • #10
  11. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Kari Lake told us to “Get the Hell Out!” We did, and Kari Lake lost.

    I agree with her.

    Then enjoy your duly earned Hobbs governorship.

    Fortunately, Red doesn’t live in that failed state. 

    • #11
  12. Aruges Member
    Aruges
    @Aruges

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    The top 5 Arizona statewide races are the U.S. Senate, Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General and State Treasurer. (Term Limited Arizona Republican Governor Doug Ducey was the State Treasurer before his two terms as Governor.)

    The Democrats won three of the first four races by 126,724, 20,481, and 122,159 votes and are winning the AG post by 4,195 votes, for a total sum of 273,559 votes combined.

    Republican Kimberly Yee won the State Treasurer job, all by herself, by 275,989 votes. Kimberly Yee’s margin of victory was bigger than the margin of victory of the top four Democrats combined.

    What did the first four state-wide Republicans have in common? They were all endorsed by Trump, and they eked out plurality wins in the primary election. And Kimberly Yee? She was not endorsed by Trump; Trump did not endorse anyone in the State Treasurer Race. She didn’t say nasty things about Trump; she said nice things about Trump. But she did NOT dispute the results of the 2020 election either.

    Kimberly Yee is a run-of-the-mill GOPe, Pro-Life, Pro-Gun, Low Taxes, Low Regulation Republican. But she did not deny the results of the 2020 election, while the Republican candidates for Senate, Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General were all Election Deniers, which was the requirement of any Trump endorsement.

    Kimberly Yee is winning with 55.6% of the vote. John McCain had six statewide races. His lowest vote percentage was 56%. Statewide Republicans usually win in Arizona by some 55% of the vote. That’s what we do; that is how Arizona rolls. For example, both of the elected members of the Corporation Commission (which regulates utilities) were won by Republicans. (You might think that Democrats would do well in regulating utilities. Nah. Again, Arizona is a Republican state, or at least we used to be a Republican State before Trump emerged.)

    I voted for all of the Republicans in state-wide races, who weren’t endorsed by Trump, with the exception of the Superintendent of Public Instruction. (I had met Tom Horne and contributed to him when he ran for Attorney General. But he has pervasive ethics problems, and lost the AG primary 8 years ago. I didn’t vote for him this time during his comeback race.) But I happily voted for Kimberly Yee and the Republicans who were running for the Corporation Commission, as well as the State Mine Inspector (which was unopposed this year).

    If John McCain hadn’t been such a self important ass, the impulse to glom onto anyone “brave” enough to denounce him wouldn’t have led AZ R’s to fall prey to the likes of Kelli Ward. That said, no excuses for the primary base doing so, just an absolute disaster. And then Trump’s poisoning the well on proper voting reform in AZ.

    • #12
  13. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Kimberly Yee for Governor, 2026!

    • #13
  14. Aruges Member
    Aruges
    @Aruges

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Kimberly Yee for Governor, 2026!

    And Ducey for Senate!

    • #14
  15. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Kimberly Yee for Governor, 2026!

    And Ducey for Senate!

    Ducey for Senate in 2024!  He wanted to run, but was vetoed by Trump, who would not forgive Ducey for certifying the election.

    • #15
  16. Aruges Member
    Aruges
    @Aruges

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Kimberly Yee for Governor, 2026!

    And Ducey for Senate!

    Ducey for Senate in 2024! He wanted to run, but was vetoed by Trump, who would not forgive Ducey for certifying the election.

    I wish he had better chances against Sienma , but we have to lead with the best we got. He would have walked over Kelly.

    • #16
  17. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Kari Lake told us to “Get the Hell Out!” We did, and Kari Lake lost.

    I agree with her.

    Then enjoy your duly earned Hobbs governorship.

    I don’t live in Arizona or in a state dominated by Trump hatred. I have a heavy dose of schadenfreude for anyone in AZ who was petty enough to vote for Dems because they hate Trump. They deserve what they will get.

    I have a Repub governor, 2 senators, and House member. Life is good. 

    • #17
  18. Aruges Member
    Aruges
    @Aruges

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Kari Lake told us to “Get the Hell Out!” We did, and Kari Lake lost.

    I agree with her.

    Then enjoy your duly earned Hobbs governorship.

    I don’t live in Arizona or in a state dominated by Trump hatred. I have a heavy dose of schadenfreude for anyone in AZ who was petty enough to vote for Dems because they hate Trump. They deserve what they will get.

    I have a Repub governor, 2 senators, and House member. Life is good.

    I’m a FL guy. I’m living fat and happy. I hate it when good people do stupid things. Going with conspiracy nuts like Lake and obvious losers like Masters when obvious winners were available was heartbreaking. It’s true, that DeSantis was the non obvious choice in 2018, but he didn’t traffic in conspiracy and was obviously competent on day 1. Lake demonstrated true political talent… but sabotaged herself repeatedly with the Trump sycophancy and performative McCain hatred. If she’d been just a skosh more “normal” she’d have won.

    • #18
  19. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Kimberly Yee for Governor, 2026!

    And Ducey for Senate!

    Ducey for Senate in 2024! He wanted to run, but was vetoed by Trump, who would not forgive Ducey for certifying the election.

    I wish he had better chances against Sienma , but we have to lead with the best we got. He would have walked over Kelly.

    Ducey would have creamed Kelly.  

    • #19
  20. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Kari Lake told us to “Get the Hell Out!” We did, and Kari Lake lost.

    I agree with her.

    Then enjoy your duly earned Hobbs governorship.

    I don’t live in Arizona or in a state dominated by Trump hatred. I have a heavy dose of schadenfreude for anyone in AZ who was petty enough to vote for Dems because they hate Trump. They deserve what they will get.

    I have a Repub governor, 2 senators, and House member. Life is good.

    I’m a FL guy. I’m living fat and happy. I hate it when good people do stupid things. Going with conspiracy nuts like Lake and obvious losers like Masters when obvious winners were available was heartbreaking. It’s true, that DeSantis was the non obvious choice in 2018, but he didn’t traffic in conspiracy and was obviously competent on day 1. Lake demonstrated true political talent… but sabotaged herself repeatedly with the Trump sycophancy and performative McCain hatred. If she’d been just a skosh more “normal” she’d have won.

    I remember a time when Florida had poorly run elections and now when people point out problems in other states, we get a Floridian calling them a “conspiracy nut.”  

    • #20
  21. Aruges Member
    Aruges
    @Aruges

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Kari Lake told us to “Get the Hell Out!” We did, and Kari Lake lost.

    I agree with her.

    Then enjoy your duly earned Hobbs governorship.

    I don’t live in Arizona or in a state dominated by Trump hatred. I have a heavy dose of schadenfreude for anyone in AZ who was petty enough to vote for Dems because they hate Trump. They deserve what they will get.

    I have a Repub governor, 2 senators, and House member. Life is good.

    I’m a FL guy. I’m living fat and happy. I hate it when good people do stupid things. Going with conspiracy nuts like Lake and obvious losers like Masters when obvious winners were available was heartbreaking. It’s true, that DeSantis was the non obvious choice in 2018, but he didn’t traffic in conspiracy and was obviously competent on day 1. Lake demonstrated true political talent… but sabotaged herself repeatedly with the Trump sycophancy and performative McCain hatred. If she’d been just a skosh more “normal” she’d have won.

    I remember a time when Florida had poorly run elections and now when people point out problems in other states, we get a Floridian calling them a “conspiracy nut.”

    AZ has legitimate problems with their elections, poor choices with how to handle mail ballots and inefficient practices, but there’s no fraud there. Just stupidity. They are slow ON PURPOSE and it undermines people’s faith in the elections which invites the conspiracy cranks and prevents people from actually dealing with how the state is changing and some end up giving up on the process as “rigged”, thereby ENSURING that they lose.
    This is downright EVIL.

    • #21
  22. Dotorimuk Coolidge
    Dotorimuk
    @Dotorimuk

    You no longer have to answer tough questions, debate or even campaign to win elections, even for Governor or President. What a country.

    • #22
  23. Aruges Member
    Aruges
    @Aruges

    Dotorimuk (View Comment):

    You no longer have to answer tough questions, debate or even campaign to win elections, even for Governor or President. What a country.

    Well, when you’re tainted with bonkers conspiracy, are the worst possible fit for a state, or are a tiresome ass, don’t be surprised with you lose to someone who hides in the basement. Maybe reflect on how you lost to someone who literally wasn’t there. Maybe there’s a clue there. Maybe the lesson is “They’d rather elect literally anyone than you”

    • #23
  24. Dotorimuk Coolidge
    Dotorimuk
    @Dotorimuk

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Dotorimuk (View Comment):

    You no longer have to answer tough questions, debate or even campaign to win elections, even for Governor or President. What a country.

    Well, when you’re tainted with bonkers conspiracy, are the worst possible fit for a state, or are a tiresome ass, don’t be surprised with you lose to someone who hides in the basement. Maybe reflect on how you lost to someone who literally wasn’t there. Maybe there’s a clue there. Maybe the lesson is “They’d rather elect literally anyone than you”

    “Bonkers conspiracy” vs trans agenda/unlimited abortion etc.

    I may not subscribe to the “bonkers conspiracy,” but I don’t believe that people who believe US elections are corrupt are worse than the opposition, just because that belief may be unfounded (smoke/fire be d*mned).

    • #24
  25. Aruges Member
    Aruges
    @Aruges

    Dotorimuk (View Comment):

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Dotorimuk (View Comment):

    You no longer have to answer tough questions, debate or even campaign to win elections, even for Governor or President. What a country.

    Well, when you’re tainted with bonkers conspiracy, are the worst possible fit for a state, or are a tiresome ass, don’t be surprised with you lose to someone who hides in the basement. Maybe reflect on how you lost to someone who literally wasn’t there. Maybe there’s a clue there. Maybe the lesson is “They’d rather elect literally anyone than you”

    “Bonkers conspiracy” vs trans agenda/unlimited abortion etc.

    I may not subscribe to the “bonkers conspiracy,” but I don’t believe that people who believe US elections are corrupt are worse than the opposition, just because that belief may be unfounded (smoke/fire be d*mned).

    When people are given 2 crazy options, don’t be surprised when they choose the one you think is worse. They may not have any exposure to trans insanity. They sure as hell got exposure to Jan 6 and the post election conspiracy crap.

    • #25
  26. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Kari Lake told us to “Get the Hell Out!” We did, and Kari Lake lost.

    I agree with her.

    Then enjoy your duly earned Hobbs governorship.

    I don’t live in Arizona or in a state dominated by Trump hatred. I have a heavy dose of schadenfreude for anyone in AZ who was petty enough to vote for Dems because they hate Trump. They deserve what they will get.

    I have a Repub governor, 2 senators, and House member. Life is good.

    I’m a FL guy. I’m living fat and happy. I hate it when good people do stupid things. Going with conspiracy nuts like Lake and obvious losers like Masters when obvious winners were available was heartbreaking. It’s true, that DeSantis was the non obvious choice in 2018, but he didn’t traffic in conspiracy and was obviously competent on day 1. Lake demonstrated true political talent… but sabotaged herself repeatedly with the Trump sycophancy and performative McCain hatred. If she’d been just a skosh more “normal” she’d have won.

    I remember a time when Florida had poorly run elections and now when people point out problems in other states, we get a Floridian calling them a “conspiracy nut.”

    AZ has legitimate problems with their elections, poor choices with how to handle mail ballots and inefficient practices, but there’s no fraud there. Just stupidity. They are slow ON PURPOSE and it undermines people’s faith in the elections which invites the conspiracy cranks and prevents people from actually dealing with how the state is changing and some end up giving up on the process as “rigged”, thereby ENSURING that they lose.
    This is downright EVIL.

    You are no more able to state there is no fraud there than you are able to accuse others of being wrong about fraud existing. As to how the state is changing, I have had a poor opinion of the state for two decades so I am not sure what is different. If I am still alive when the country splits, I will be content to see AZ go with the left coast. The only states I care to hang on to are those that value the founders’ Constitution. I consider the rest a liability for preserving free society, prosperity, and “American exceptionalism.” We are going to have a hard enough time preserving those virtues within the red states as it is. 

    • #26
  27. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Dotorimuk (View Comment):

    You no longer have to answer tough questions, debate or even campaign to win elections, even for Governor or President. What a country.

    Don’t blame the country, just the states with issues. 

    • #27
  28. HeavyWater Reagan
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

     

    • #28
  29. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

     

    Dang. Wish we had Lake in our state. Glad Cheney is toast as a Repub and can slink away now. 

    • #29
  30. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    Aruges (View Comment):

    Dotorimuk (View Comment):

    You no longer have to answer tough questions, debate or even campaign to win elections, even for Governor or President. What a country.

    Well, when you’re tainted with bonkers conspiracy, are the worst possible fit for a state, or are a tiresome ass, don’t be surprised with you lose to someone who hides in the basement. Maybe reflect on how you lost to someone who literally wasn’t there. Maybe there’s a clue there. Maybe the lesson is “They’d rather elect literally anyone than you”

    What a failure of a county when conspiracy theories are a viable option to the level of incompetence displayed for two straight elections. Because the Republican lost again, it won’t be fixed.

    • #30
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