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As expected, the votes broke the GOP’s way in Monday’s vote counts, but not nearly enough to give Republicans the lead in the remaining races. Katie Hobbs has been projected to beat Kari Lake in the gubernatorial race. The AG and Superintendent of Public Instruction contests are still too close to call, but the latter, Tom Horne, has just taken the lead.
Onto the numbers…
|Kari Lake (R)||49.6%||1,244,850|
|√ Katie Hobbs (D)||50.4%||1,265,331|
U.S. Senator (race called for Sen. Kelly, Friday, Nov. 11)
|Blake Masters (R)||46.4%||1,171,838|
|√ Mark Kelly (D)||51.5%||1,298,562|
Secretary of State (race called for Adrian Fontes, Friday, Nov. 11)
|Mark Finchem (R)||47.5%||1,175,688|
|√ Adrian Fontes (D)||52.5%||1,297,847|
|Abe Hamadeh (R)||49.9%||1,228,597|
|Kris Mayes (D)||50.1%||1,232,792|
Treasurer (race called for Kimberly Yee, Saturday, Nov. 12)
|√ Kimberly Yee (R)||55.6%||1,363,031|
|Martin Quezada (D)||44.4%||1,087,042|
Superintendent of Public Instruction
|Tom Horne (R)||50.1%||1,230,694|
|Kathy Hoffman (D)||49.9%||1,225,117|
I will update with more analysis once the Arizona Secretary of State election site is up and functioning again. (It seems to have died about an hour ago.)
Update (7:45 p.m. MST): The State election website is finally working again. It lists 43,036 ballots yet to be counted statewide.
In order to win, Republican Tom Horne will only need 50 percent of the future counts to go his way; he should win the Superintendent of Public Instruction race, which bodes well for school choice.
Attorney General candidate Abe Hamadeh (R) would need nearly 60 percent of these votes to catch up to challenger Kris Mayes (D). In normal election cycles, this would be likely, but the GOP vote counts in 2022 keep underproducing night after night — and time is running out.
(Incidentally, Kari Lake would need about 74 percent of the remaining votes to win. Not going to happen.)
Update (8:10 p.m. MST): In other statewide races, the news is better for Republicans.
For the US House of Representatives, Arizona currently holds nine seats: five Democratic and four Republican.
That balance has how shifted into the red. In the next Congress, there will be only three Democrats and six Republicans.
The races were called for David Schweikert, Juan Ciscomani, and Eli Crane, who will join three other GOPers in the House.
In the State Senate and the State House, the GOP is expected to hold onto their one-seat majority in both chambers.
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