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It’s Time for a Family Conversation, GOP
Dear fellow Republicans – especially those of you who remain loyal and ardently supportive of former President Donald Trump. We need to have a serious and frank family conversation.
I’m no “never Trumper.” I voted for Trump twice. Reluctantly the first time since I’d strongly supported my friend and former US Senator Rick Santorum’s (R-PA) candidacy for the GOP nomination, followed by US Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), and then finally a vote in the Pennsylvania GOP primary in 2016 for US Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX). Still, there was no way I was voting to help elect Hillary Clinton. Trump got my vote in 2016, Access Hollywood tape and all.
In 2020, I enthusiastically supported Trump. His mostly stellar conservative record as President, capstoned with three impressive Supreme Court confirmations (thanks in no small part to Mitch McConnell), was enough for me. No wars, low inflation, and a booming economy (until Covid) were icing on the cake.
So I’m not here as a “never Trumper.” If he runs and is our nominee in 2024, I’ll vote for him. But we must discuss that in light of the profoundly disappointing 2020 midterm elections. The GOP may win control of the House and Senate, but that is highly uncertain and far less than GOP officials predicted. A GOP majority of 1 – 219 seats – in the House is possible. Talk about no margin for error.
Trump may be a primary reason behind turning a “red wave” into barely a nod.
The problem appears to be with independent voters, which according to one exit poll, broke +2 percent for Democrats, breaking the historic norms for ordinary midterm elections. In midterm elections over the past decade, independents broke for one party or another between 12 to 18 percent, usually the party not in control of the White House. Not so this year. Why? Not sure. Subsequent polling may tell us, but exit polling and speculation suggest Trump’s late machinations over an impending announcement of his 2024 candidacy and the abortion issue, which ranked second to inflation in voters’ minds. Gen Z voters broke heavily for Democrats.
Hear me out. I acknowledge and respect your reasons for supporting him, starting with the grotesquely unfair manner in which he’s been treated by congressional Democrats, the mainstream media, federal law enforcement and intelligence agencies, and even some fellow Republicans. I get your fascination and focus on the threat of “globalism” and elitist “deep state” dominance and Trump’s threat to it.
But he’s become too toxic. It’s time to cut our losses and move on. Trump, who will turn 80 in 2024 and would only be able to serve one term if elected, cost us House and Senate seats and increasingly looks unelectable. Democrats salivate for him to run again and serve as the GOP nominee. They were relieved when he raised his orange head with taunts of a presidential campaign announcement at rallies in Ohio, Pennsylvania (how did that work out?), and elsewhere just before the election.
Consider the evidence. Let’s start with the election results. Which Republicans romped, which ones lost, and why?
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was the election season’s big winner with a nearly 20-point romp over former GOP-turned-Democrat former Gov. Charlie Crist. His margin helped the GOP capture four new US House seats and aided Rubio in his landslide over Democratic US Rep. Val Demmings. Just four years ago, DeSantis won a tight and even surprising 30,000-vote win over Andrew Gillum.
DeSantis enjoyed no support from Trump this election. Shortly before the election, Trump attacked DeSantis at one of his rallies, calling him “Ron DeSanctimonious.” It didn’t seem to hurt, did it?
And then there’s New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, who also ran without Trump’s support or blessing. He won by 17 points. The Granite State’s congressional candidates all ran as pro-Trump Republicans, including the estimable General Don Bolduc for US Senate. Nearly 20 percent of Sununu’s vote went to Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan. The two GOP House candidates, including a former Trump White House staffer, also lost decisively.
Democrats spent millions in the GOP primary to promote Bolduc’s candidacy over former St. Sen. President Chuck Morse. It worked. Could Morse have defeated Hassan? We’ll never know, but he was more aligned with Sununu than Trump or Bolduc.
Overall, Democrats spent an estimated $46 million in GOP primaries to promote the most pro-Trump candidates, including Darren Bailey for Governor of Illinois (he lost), Bolduc, and several House candidates, many of whom in competitive races lost, especially the Trump-endorsed John Gibbs in Michigan’s previously GOP-held Third Congressional district. Gibbs defeated incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer in the GOP primary, then lost the general election by 13 points.
Georgia’s incumbent Governor, Brian Kemp, also cruised to reelection over his 2018 opponent, election denier Stacey Abrams. In May, Trump endorsed his primary opponent, former US Senator David Perdue (defeated in the 2020 Georgia Senate runoff). Kemp demolished Perdue with 71% of the GOP primary vote. On the other hand, Trump-endorsed US Senate nominee Herschel Walker ran at least five points behind Kemp and now is headed to a December runoff that may decide which party controls the US Senate.
Last is incumbent Governor Mike DeWine’s 25-point romp to reelection in the Buckeye State. While Trump’s late endorsement in Ohio’s US Senate primary catapulted author (Hillbilly Elegy) JD Vance to the nomination, he won his election by just 7 points. Three GOP candidates for state Supreme Court seats fared better, all with double-digit victories. Former Marine and Yale Law-educated Vance kept his distance from Trump in the general election. JD Vance is now Senator-elect.
Vance may owe his nomination to Trump, but that endorsement was a burden. His margin of victory mirrored Trump’s Ohio win two years ago.
Arizona remains a mystery, given the vagueries of its bizarre election counting system. Both gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Senate nominee Blake Masters – endorsed by Trump and embracing him in return – are trailing at this stage. Democratic nominee and Secretary of State Katie Hobbs was singularly the worst candidate of the 2022 election. And she may win.
In Pennsylvania, Trump’s endorsement of New Jersey transplant and celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz propelled him to a narrow GOP primary election win. His late endorsement of GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano helped seal his primary win. How did those candidates fare? I think you know. Trump now reportedly blames his wife for his endorsement of Oz. Wow. Don’t try that at home.
Want more evidence? How about a poll conducted in a “red” part of Florida (what part isn’t red anymore?) by a pollster and their client, whose names I will protect.
QUESTION *. WOULD YOU BE MORE OR LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A CANDIDATE WHO IS A DONALD TRUMP SUPPORTER?
1. Much More 24%
2. Somewhat more 9%
3. Somewhat less 4%
4. Much less 43%
5. No difference 15%
6. Not sure 6%
It doesn’t take a math genius to realize that there is a 14-point difference between those somewhat or more likely to support Trump candidates (33%) and those less inclined (47%). And pay attention to the intensity – 43% are “much less” likely. That is yuge, as Trump might say.
I know what some of you are saying. “The GOP can’t win without us,” extol fervent Trump supporters, citing polls showing him as the clear favorite for the GOP presidential nomination in 2024. For now. But midterm election polls and results also show that more voters are lost than gained by Trump’s embrace.
I also know the popular MAGA argument for Trump, as shared in this interesting American Thinker post by J.B. Shurk.
There are videos making the rounds showing President Trump standing on stage in Miami’s pouring rain while imploring Americans to get out and vote. The metaphor is striking. There’s Trump, battling the elements, lively as ever, refusing to give up, insisting on finishing what he’s started. Citizen Free Press appropriately notes that “President Trump is truly a force of nature.”
I know that the months ahead will make for some spirited political debate among friends, but I encourage you to cement in your minds this quintessential image of Trump unbroken and unbowed. Whatever else can be said about the man (and there is plenty), he remains the only leader in our times unafraid to stand alone. When other self-proclaimed allies run the other way or look for somewhere safe to weather the approaching storm, Trump stands inside the tempest, demanding that it give up and surrender. That’s something that will forever separate him from those who pretend to be him.
It has become normal to deconstruct Trump’s public appeal to something as basic as he fights! Yet it is not just that Trump fights; it is why he fights that has attracted such a diverse voting coalition unlike any other political movement today.
I get all that. Ardent Trumpers also cite support for DeSantis from alleged “globalists,” including major GOP financiers like Ken Griffin. Funny, DeSantis hasn’t behaved like one. And DeSantis, for his part, has never criticized Donald Trump. Some thanks he gets, being called “Ron DeSanctimonious.” Trump’s name-calling schtick is getting a bit old and lame.
The problem is this: Unfairly or not, Trump is toxic. Charles C.W. Cooke, editor of the National Review opines:
I’m not being cute: Trump is the Republican establishment now. He’s the default, the Man, the swamp. It is Trump who is widely considered the front-runner for the party’s nomination in 2024. It is Trump whose endorsements are treated as if they were official edicts. It is Trump to whom the press and the public tend to link all GOP nominees. And, judging by the squeals that emanated from his allies yesterday, Trump’s machine intends to do everything it can to keep it that way, and to thus ensure that he wins the next primary election and loses the next presidential election. With the country in its present state, Republicans simply cannot afford that sort of frivolous, low-energy, old-boys-club complacency. GOPe, you’re on notice.
A few days ago, Trump started criticizing Ron DeSantis. A day or two later, Trump started threatening DeSantis. “I think if he runs,” Trump said, “he could hurt himself very badly. I really believe he could hurt himself badly. I don’t think it would be good for the party.” Upping the ante, Trump then pretended that he knew “things” about DeSantis “that won’t be very flattering,” and promised to reveal them if DeSantis even considered challenging him in 2024.
This is classic establishment gate-keeping. It is also richly undeserved. Trump is a loser. He squeaked past the most unpopular woman in America in 2016, he presided over a blue wave in 2018, he lost to a barely breathing Joe Biden in 2020, and he hand-picked a bevy of losing Republican nominees in 2022. Ron DeSantis is a winner. He beat the Democratic wave in 2018, he got the biggest challenge of the last four years — the Covid-19 pandemic — almost exactly right, and he won reelection by the largest margin achieved by any Republican gubernatorial nominee in Florida’s 177-year-history. Perhaps, on the internet, “loser lambasts winner” is an interesting story. In the real world, it is not.
And conservative Twitter might have already moved on.
Voters also are not interested in relitigating the 2020 election or putting up with so-called “election deniers,” even though Trump has strong cases that election irregularities and even fraud played a significant role. The scourge of “vote by mail” fueled by Democrats during the pandemic is a curse on our election system and invites corruption and distrust in the integrity of our elections. But that ship has sailed. The need here is not airing grievances but fixing laws at the state level.
This is no endorsement of DeSantis, someone I’ve never met. There will be several strong candidates in the race, especially if Trump bows out to play “senior statesman.” I won’t name them – you know. And while Trump may still have the pole position as we advance, we need to be blunt. Our country needs a strong leader after the Biden-Harris debacle, but Trump is the likely major GOP candidate least likely to recapture the presidency and course-correct the nation. And we cannot afford another Democratic presidency.
The Democrats’ best hope to retain power is a Trump nomination in 2024. He helped deliver them a mild midterm election.
Let’s not give it to them. This is not being “never Trump.” It is being “over Trump.”
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I never thought of Trump as one of the really good guys. But as a New York resident billionaire he saw the real evil in play and it went way beyond anything he ever engage in or had thoughts of doing so. Epstein and Clinton are good examples. A lot was exposed during the Trump Administration such as the Biden’s dealings in China and Ukraine, as well as the criminal behavior in the federal bureaucracy. These behaviors demonstrated the lowest possible levels of immoral and unpatriotic behaviors and Trump is not in that group. But he is not the best possible leader to move the American people back to where we should be as a nation.
One of the truest things the Babylon Bee has published:
Really? I haven’t checked, but I would have thought they increased share like most other (face it, all other) groups. between 2016-2020. I don’t believe I’ve heard any 2016 RT become hard no for 2020.
Have we ever been given the opportunity to elect the best possible leader?
By that same reasoning you could say ‘the choice is between a conservative GOP and winning elections.’
No, but Trump will tell us it is him.
Sorry, I engaged by accident, thinking you had something to say. My mistake.
Just because a few couples you know didn’t cheat on their spouses does not mean that it is a good thing for our President to set the example by cheating on his spouse.
I agree, but most people are not intelligent and many take their moral cues from leaders, including political leaders. Do you remember in the 1990’s when teenagers who were caught in compromising positions would claim that oral sex was not “real sex” because the President said so?
My issue is both.
The word “Trump” has become a synonym for whatever the GOPe doesn’t like. Any time you see his name in this context, try replacing it with Tea Party, Conservatism, Pro-Choice, God, Guns, and so on. I’m not throwing stones at anybody here — just generalizing the point made by @lowtech-redneck. Also, we were supposed to choose between Trump and winning elections even when Trump won.
What Bob said was probably truer than it was funny.
It is neither true nor funny that we elect a “leader to move the American people back to where we should be as a nation.” That’s straight-up Progressivism, even if it does come carrying a cross.
The Logitarians on this site kept chiding Trump supporters about our “leader” in the run-up to 2016. We do not model our thoughts or morals upon his, we do not “follow” him, and we elected him to do our bidding, not the other way around. Results were mixed, but better than what we expected from the establishment’s cookie-cutter rejects.
I did not appreciate Obama’s attempts to “move the American people back to where we should be,” and will fight that damnable urge in any politician. Go to church for that if you wish, or work to convince people you care about. Write books, teach classes, give speeches, volunteer, work for a NPO or a mission-focused company, fine. But I won’t be chided for not being PROGRESSIVE enough in my politics on a conservative site.
In short, Suburban and urban (single) women, who self-identify as “fiscally conservative and socially liberal”. More elaboration later.
<Yoda Voice> To Mollie, you listen! </Yoda Voice>
Hemingway: Republican Leadership’s Inability To Create A Red Wave An Indictment On How They’re Running Things
I think the lesson from Biden 2020 and Fetterman 2022 is that the Dem ballot harvesting machine can put anybody into office.
I don’t think it’s as simple as that. I would want to have the breakdown of voters in places where Trump’s candidates failed. But yes, I think issues like inflation and crime have turned suburban women back to the GOP.
I have thought Dump Trump for quite awhile. If he gets the nomination I will vote for him, but only as the lesser evil, and with no hope of actually winning.
Since I’m a Constitutionalist in the Russell Kirk sense your characterization of my thoughts as Progressivism is off base. I personally seek a federal executive who abides by the Constitution. The Progressives fail because they try to go well beyond that.
Trump rose at the right time in isolation. We still have only a few politicians in leadership positions who are ready to expand Trump’s efforts. Our nation has a Constitution and an amendment process. We are now testing to see if the people want to abide those terms. Trump was alone in the forefront in 2016. That has changed because of him.
That sounds like . . . 2016.
Then just give up. I personally think Trump repulsed the electorate ( and he didn’t have to, it was a choice ), and that Oz was successfully portrayed as a Jersey carpetbagger and slimy TV pitchman. Yes I voted for Trump, and would have voted for Oz, but most people don’t think the Democratic Party is Satanic like I do.
I don’t even know anything about Oz. But that’s because I don’t watch Oprah like so many of you apparently do. ; )
I don’t either but Trump has had enough experience with carpetbaggers (Clinton and Romney) to know better.
It was six years ago that he won. He hasn’t won anything since. Time to move on.
He is a quack doctor. He promotes homeopathy.
Always wise advice. Also listen when she says to not take anyone seriously who uses election denier.
Someone else said that if McConnell and McCarty are blaming Trump for poor leadership, they need to demonstrate good leadership by stepping aside and letting new people take the reins. Even if they manage to get majorities, a lot was left on the playing field.
Right. That’s a quack doctor these days. We should probably rename it “defensive medicine.” /sarc
Just shows how easy it is to be wrong, huh?
Many people arguing with you would actually prefer DeSantis (and DeSantis specifically*) over Trump for 2024, but we get the distinct impression that most people eagerly calling for the GOP to ‘move on’ at this time really mean that they want conservatives to ‘move on’ from the issues and concerns that are important to them, and resign ourselves to feckless and treacherous-but decorous-politicians like Sununu and McConnell….so as not to scare away the Independents, of course. Speaking of which, where is the outcry about ‘moving on’ from McConnell-who has presided over numerous failures, is hated by almost everybody (including Independents) outside the Beltway, and is largely responsible for huge ruptures within the party, not to mention abused his power to kneecap candidates who wouldn’t commit to supporting him-among all these concerned parties who seek to bring forth another, on the spot ‘autopsy report’ that ‘just so happens’ to involve moving in the decoration that the GOPe wants to go?
*Kelly Johnson chose to obfuscate this issue, but the fact is that DeSantis is the only alternative to Trump that currently has any strong support or appeal to the conservative base in addition to proven political savvy, and any such list certainly does not include the likes of DeWine, Sununu, and Kemp.
I don’t know about the average Republican, but in conservative circles (including this site) there has been a great outcry to replace McConnel for many years now.
I think that is mostly because DeSantis soaks up the only news coverage that is left over after they are done talking about Trump. I think the Republican bench is very deep with competent candidates. As an Ohioan, I can tell you that DeWine is not one of them.
Well said, and I agree.
Yes, and as I have said, Trump has passed his expiration date. It was foolish to be NeverTrump. It’s now foolish to be AlwaysTrump.
Arizona disproves this argument. We do not allow ballot harvesting by a state law that allows a person to deliver only the ballot of a family member. Nonetheless, Biden won in 2020, and so far Kelly is 115.037 votes ahead of Blake Masters as of Thursday night at 9:32 p.m.