The Latest Numbers from Arizona

 

Arizona is famously slow in counting votes. And since the debacle of 2020, state election officials have changed nothing. (I wrote about it here for the Arizona Republic.)

Adding to the confusion is that votes are counted in a specific order. The ballots tabulated so far were mailed in or dropped off before election day, and the ballots filed on election day itself. These tend to support the Democratic candidates. The last returns from these two categories were announced Friday night.

As of Friday night, some in the last category are added to the mix: the so-called “late earlies.” These are mail-in ballots dropped off at polling places on election day. These tend to support the Republican candidates, and the ballots are slower to count since election officials must verify the signature on the outer envelope before opening and counting. Observers for Democrats and Republicans are present throughout this process.

More of these “late earlies” were filed this year since Maricopa County, which holds 62 percent of the state’s residents, had tabulation machine errors. Also, after the mess in 2020, many Republicans and independents don’t trust the post office or drop-boxes to deliver their ballot properly. (Yours truly fits into this category; in my case, due to simple procrastination.)

As of about 8:30 p.m. local time, here are the latest numbers from Arizona. At this stage of the count, Democratic candidates are dominating. This is expected to change somewhat after Saturday’s numbers are released:

Governor

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Kari Lake (R) 49.3% 1,068,908
Katie Hobbs (D) 50.7% 1,100,005

U.S. Senator (race called for Sen. Kelly at 8:15 p.m., Friday, Nov. 11)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Blake Masters (R) 46.1% 1,005,001
√ Mark Kelly (D) 51.8% 1,128,917

Secretary of State (race called for Adrian Fontes at 8:25 p.m., Friday, Nov. 11)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Mark Finchem (R) 47.2% 1,011,019
√ Adrian Fontes (D) 52.8% 1,129,144

Attorney General

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Abe Hamadeh (R) 49.6% 1,055,522
Kris Mayes (D) 50.4% 1,074,673

Treasurer

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Kimberly Yee (R) 55.3% 1,173,483
Martin Quezada (D) 44.7% 947,604

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Tom Horne (R) 49.8% 1,059,486
Kathy Hoffman (D) 50.2% 1,066,151

I plan to update these numbers at the end of each day until the various races are called. Which will hopefully happen this year…

So, where do we stand at 8:30 p.m. Friday? I expect the close races (1-2%) to eventually move into the GOP column. That means Kari Lake will be Arizona’s next Governor, Abe Hamadeh our next Attorney General, and Tom Horne our next Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Where GOP candidates lag by a lot (4% or more), I doubt they can make up the gap. That’s why Blake Masters is, very sadly, out of contention, as is Mark Finchem, the Republican nominee for Secretary of State. Both were declared defeated minutes after the latest numbers dropped Friday night and while I was writing this post.

For the record, an estimated 394,521 ballots are yet to be counted. Again, these are expected to favor GOP candidates, especially the 274,885 from Maricopa County.

Published in Elections
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  1. Charlotte Member
    Charlotte
    @Charlotte

    Zafar (View Comment):
    If one is too lazy/entitled to bother editing what one’s responding to down to the relevant bits….anyway, I think editing is part of good writing and is, in fact, a basic courtesy in this context.

    +1

    • #91
  2. HeavyWater Reagan
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    Governor Doug Ducey would likely have won the US Senate race. 

    But Trump hated Ducey because Ducey accepted the results of the 2020 presidential race in Arizona, with Trump losing the state to Biden by 10,457 votes.  

    So, the Democrat gets the Senate seat.  

    • #92
  3. Jon Gabriel, Ed. Admin
    Jon Gabriel, Ed.
    @jon

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    How did this get to be the topic? This is why I encourage @ Jon to start a new post for the Arizona vote results.

    Yes, I’ll make a new post for tonight’s results.

    • #93
  4. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    #52 is about 920 words. Is that some kind of record?

    Surprisingly not. There was at least one that was 4000.

    I once made a mistake, saying a comment was 4000 when it was only 2000.

    • #94
  5. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    I voted against this proposition, given how I have seen the recreational marijuana proposition lead to pothead parents. (I don’t think that most Arizona voters who voted for recreational marijuana realized that it is a green light for pothead parents.)

    It’s a green light for pothead EVERYONE. Why would – and how could – parents be excluded?

    That was snuck into the ballot proposal.

    • #95
  6. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    I voted against this proposition, given how I have seen the recreational marijuana proposition lead to pothead parents. (I don’t think that most Arizona voters who voted for recreational marijuana realized that it is a green light for pothead parents.)

    It’s a green light for pothead EVERYONE. Why would – and how could – parents be excluded?

    That was snuck into the ballot proposal.

    Not the point.  If the bill is for “recreational marijuana” why would anyone be surprised if parents become potheads too?

    • #96
  7. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    One problem comes from the 500-word limit applying to also what you’re replying to, not just your own part.

    If one is too lazy/entitled to bother editing what one’s responding to down to the relevant bits….anyway, I think editing is part of good writing and is, in fact, a basic courtesy in this context.

    Absolutely.

    • #97
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