The Latest Numbers from Arizona

 

Arizona is famously slow in counting votes. And since the debacle of 2020, state election officials have changed nothing. (I wrote about it here for the Arizona Republic.)

Adding to the confusion is that votes are counted in a specific order. The ballots tabulated so far were mailed in or dropped off before election day, and the ballots filed on election day itself. These tend to support the Democratic candidates. The last returns from these two categories were announced Friday night.

As of Friday night, some in the last category are added to the mix: the so-called “late earlies.” These are mail-in ballots dropped off at polling places on election day. These tend to support the Republican candidates, and the ballots are slower to count since election officials must verify the signature on the outer envelope before opening and counting. Observers for Democrats and Republicans are present throughout this process.

More of these “late earlies” were filed this year since Maricopa County, which holds 62 percent of the state’s residents, had tabulation machine errors. Also, after the mess in 2020, many Republicans and independents don’t trust the post office or drop-boxes to deliver their ballot properly. (Yours truly fits into this category; in my case, due to simple procrastination.)

As of about 8:30 p.m. local time, here are the latest numbers from Arizona. At this stage of the count, Democratic candidates are dominating. This is expected to change somewhat after Saturday’s numbers are released:

Governor

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Kari Lake (R) 49.3% 1,068,908
Katie Hobbs (D) 50.7% 1,100,005

U.S. Senator (race called for Sen. Kelly at 8:15 p.m., Friday, Nov. 11)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Blake Masters (R) 46.1% 1,005,001
√ Mark Kelly (D) 51.8% 1,128,917

Secretary of State (race called for Adrian Fontes at 8:25 p.m., Friday, Nov. 11)

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Mark Finchem (R) 47.2% 1,011,019
√ Adrian Fontes (D) 52.8% 1,129,144

Attorney General

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Abe Hamadeh (R) 49.6% 1,055,522
Kris Mayes (D) 50.4% 1,074,673

Treasurer

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Kimberly Yee (R) 55.3% 1,173,483
Martin Quezada (D) 44.7% 947,604

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Candidate Percentage Vote Total
Tom Horne (R) 49.8% 1,059,486
Kathy Hoffman (D) 50.2% 1,066,151

I plan to update these numbers at the end of each day until the various races are called. Which will hopefully happen this year…

So, where do we stand at 8:30 p.m. Friday? I expect the close races (1-2%) to eventually move into the GOP column. That means Kari Lake will be Arizona’s next Governor, Abe Hamadeh our next Attorney General, and Tom Horne our next Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Where GOP candidates lag by a lot (4% or more), I doubt they can make up the gap. That’s why Blake Masters is, very sadly, out of contention, as is Mark Finchem, the Republican nominee for Secretary of State. Both were declared defeated minutes after the latest numbers dropped Friday night and while I was writing this post.

For the record, an estimated 394,521 ballots are yet to be counted. Again, these are expected to favor GOP candidates, especially the 274,885 from Maricopa County.

Published in Elections
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  1. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    No question that @ garyrobbins highjacked Jon’s post.

    Jon’s post was a report on vote counts so far and where there were votes to be counted with a little flavor of where his preferences were and how they were doing.

    Gary entered with his standard diatribe about why the vote results were going the way they were.

    Gary does this at every opportunity on a main feed post.

    Is this what Jon’s posts are like?  I don’t know how I Followed it but it surely is bizarre for a main page post.  And informative of what goes on outside the member feed.

    Added: Oh, I got here through a link from a group.

    • #61
  2. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    “I believe those things.  All ten of them have been proven by clear and convincing evidence, and some of them have been proven in my eyes beyond a reasonable doubt, in that a reasonable doubt is a doubt based upon reason, and not fantasy.  If those beliefs mean that we can no longer be friends, then I will be sad about that and I will miss you.  I will think well of you and wish you well in life.”

    ***

    WOW!  1,352 words for a Dear John letter on the main feed.  This is a Ricochet I have been neglecting!

    • #62
  3. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    Charlotte (View Comment):
    #52 is about 920 words. Is that some kind of record?  [edited to the correct quote]

    No, it’s not.  :)

    • #63
  4. Al French Moderator
    Al French
    @AlFrench

    • #64
  5. 9thDistrictNeighbor Member
    9thDistrictNeighbor
    @9thDistrictNeighbor

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    I think Jon should take this post down and start over with a new post today. Updates to the results he posted will be of interest.

    No one should feel the need to take down a post for any reason–especially on the main page, for as @Flicker said, it is

    …informative of what goes on outside the member feed.

    • #65
  6. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    9thDistrictNeighbor (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    I think Jon should take this post down and start over with a new post today. Updates to the results he posted will be of interest.

    No one should feel the need to take down a post for any reason–especially on the main page, for as @ Flicker said, it is

    …informative of what goes on outside the member feed.

    OK, maybe just start a new post for the updated vote statistics.

    • #66
  7. Quickz Member
    Quickz
    @Quickz

    ChrisShearer (View Comment):

    Blondie (View Comment):

    Titus Techera (View Comment):

    Thanks much for laying out what’s happening. Do you have any idea why the GOP legislature & Governor didn’t, don’t care to improve the system?

    This is a good question, Titus. Florida decided after 2000 that it was tired of looking incompetent and changed things. You would think Arizona would feel the same way.

    The AZ Republican Party spent the last 2 years fighting itself. And of course the biggest fight was the 2020 vote count. do you think in that atmosphere they’d be able to straighten out the voting process?

    Noisy off-topic thread under the OP, but this here sub-thread is of interest to me, as it should be to the curious. Why didn’t the Leg *do* something?

    From what I recall there were several attempts at passing some election reforms post 2020. Perhaps @jon can correct my likely errors, but I think that several legislative attempts were made, but either failed to pass or were vetoed (I might have that veto thing wrong).

    The AZ GOP only had a 2 seat advantage in both houses of the AZ Legislature, so it was not hard to torpedo any bills, which I believe happened by two or three down votes. Perhaps quorum came into play as well. One of the bills was voted down by a rep – was it Ugunte-sargon something? – who didn’t think the bill went far enough. I get that, but sometimes half a loaf is better yadda-yadda. There also might have been a special session that was requested but not called for?

    Anyway, that is a great question and only one I tangentially recall some information on.

    Oh yeah – I believe there has been R growth in both of these houses as a result of this election? And the AZ Freedom Caucus has grown? More questions that I think @jon or @arizonapatriot might have much more solid info on.

    • #67
  8. Charlotte Member
    Charlotte
    @Charlotte

    Flicker (View Comment):


    I believe those things. All ten of them have been proven by clear and convincing evidence, and some of them have been proven in my eyes beyond a reasonable doubt, in that a reasonable doubt is a doubt based upon reason, and not fantasy. If those beliefs mean that we can no longer be friends, then I will be sad about that and I will miss you. I will think well of you and wish you well in life.

    No, it’s not. :)

    Hey @flicker, could you please edit your comment #63 to reflect that these are Gary’s words, not mine? Thanks.

    • #68
  9. TempTime Member
    TempTime
    @TempTime

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    #52 is about 920 words. Is that some kind of record?

    Yeah.  I was wondering about that too.   Curious. 

    I think excessively long, repetitive, comments may reasonably be construed as prima facie evidence of highjacking.

    Opinion/Suggestion:  I think the 500 word limit is good for everyone equally.   If a member requires more than 500 words to express himself  —  in the comments section of a post originated by a member other them himself — perhaps then the rule should be that the wordy commenting dude if, after exhausting his 500 word limit, still has more to say —  he must do so by beginning his own post with the remainder of this thoughts/words. 

    • #69
  10. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    If you nominate Election Deniers, or Donald Trump wanna-be’s don’t expect to get my vote, and in Arizona, don’t expect to get the vote of 104000+ voters who did vote for a standard issue Republican.  BTW, I don’t belong to a Country Club, nor do I expect that the other 104,000 voters belong to a Country Club.

    Thanks for the perfect example of why your advice leads to nothing other than huge losses. You want to win with 104,000 votes. 

    • #70
  11. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    If you nominate Election Deniers, or Donald Trump wanna-be’s don’t expect to get my vote, and in Arizona, don’t expect to get the vote of 104000+ voters who did vote for a standard issue Republican. BTW, I don’t belong to a Country Club, nor do I expect that the other 104,000 voters belong to a Country Club.

    Thanks for the perfect example of why your advice leads to nothing other than huge losses. You want to win with 104,000 votes.

    The 104,000 votes is a veto, that’s all.  You have our votes, unless you engage in crazy talk.

    • #71
  12. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    Stealing again?

    • #72
  13. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    A quick post script to my Comment #52.  

    A wise man suggested to me right after the 2020 election that I respect that strong Trump supporters were hurting and suggested that they would come around.

    He was both right and wrong.  He was right that I needed to be more humble and less arrogant.  But I think that my silence and the silence of other Republicans gave license to the crazy element of Trump supporters to spin fantastic theories about how the election was stolen.

    In football, if you have a lead, you need to keep the pressure on.  Stay on offense.  Don’t take your foot off of the neck of the other team, and let them get back into the game. 

    Trump lost in 2020.  That is the truth.  And I will keep speaking the truth, albeit with more humility and respect for the feelings of others.   

    • #73
  14. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    #52 is about 920 words. Is that some kind of record?

    No, it’s not. :)

    Hey @ flicker, could you please edit your comment #63 to reflect that these are Gary’s words, not mine? Thanks.

    Done.

    • #74
  15. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    TempTime (View Comment):

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    #52 is about 920 words. Is that some kind of record?

    Yeah. I was wondering about that too. Curious.

    I think excessively long, repetitive, comments may reasonably be construed as prima facie evidence of highjacking.

    Opinion/Suggestion: I think the 500 word limit is good for everyone equally. If a member requires more than 500 words to express himself — in the comments section of a post originated by a member other them himself — perhaps then the rule should be that the wordy commenting dude if, after exhausting his 500 word limit, still has more to say — he must do so by beginning his own post with the remainder of this thoughts/words.

    A lawyer, I forget whom, just wrote four 500-word comments in response to Gary.  They were worth reading.  Only time I’ve seen that done.

    • #75
  16. Charlotte Member
    Charlotte
    @Charlotte

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    #52 is about 920 words. Is that some kind of record?

    No, it’s not. :)

    Hey @ flicker, could you please edit your comment #63 to reflect that these are Gary’s words, not mine? Thanks.

    Done.

    Mucho appreciado!

    • #76
  17. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Flicker (View Comment):

    TempTime (View Comment):

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    #52 is about 920 words. Is that some kind of record?

    Yeah. I was wondering about that too. Curious.

    I think excessively long, repetitive, comments may reasonably be construed as prima facie evidence of highjacking.

    Opinion/Suggestion: I think the 500 word limit is good for everyone equally. If a member requires more than 500 words to express himself — in the comments section of a post originated by a member other them himself — perhaps then the rule should be that the wordy commenting dude if, after exhausting his 500 word limit, still has more to say — he must do so by beginning his own post with the remainder of this thoughts/words.

    A lawyer, I forget whom, just wrote four 500-word comments in response to Gary. They were worth reading. Only time I’ve seen that done.

    See if you can come up with the name, PM me.

    • #77
  18. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    #52 is about 920 words. Is that some kind of record?

    Surprisingly not. There was at least one that was 4000.

    • #78
  19. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    #52 is about 920 words. Is that some kind of record?

    No, it’s not. :)

    Hey @ flicker, could you please edit your comment #63 to reflect that these are Gary’s words, not mine? Thanks.

    Done.

    Mucho appreciado!

    You speak French!

     

    • #79
  20. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    I voted against this proposition, given how I have seen the recreational marijuana proposition lead to pothead parents.  (I don’t think that most Arizona voters who voted for recreational marijuana realized that it is a green light for pothead parents.)

    It’s a green light for pothead EVERYONE.  Why would – and how could – parents be excluded?

    • #80
  21. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Blondie (View Comment):

    Titus Techera (View Comment):

    Thanks much for laying out what’s happening. Do you have any idea why the GOP legislature & Governor didn’t, don’t care to improve the system?

    This is a good question, Titus. Florida decided after 2000 that it was tired of looking incompetent and changed things. You would think Arizona would feel the same way.

    Now that the light is off Florida and on Arizona, maybe they will.  Although not if they get a Dimocrat governor.

    • #81
  22. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Columbo (View Comment):

    For the record, an estimated 394,521 ballots are yet to be counted. Again, these are expected to favor GOP candidates, especially the 274,885 from Maricopa County.

    This boggles this reader’s mind! It is Saturday, Nov. 12, five days (!) after election day and you guys have not counted 394,521 ballots?!!! 

    To be clear, it’s not that they haven’t finished counting all 394,521 ballots that were cast.  They haven’t yet finished counting an ADDITIONAL 394,521 ballot after the over TWO MILLION ballots that HAVE BEEN counted.

     

    • #82
  23. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    Thank you Jon for the statistics. The Republican candidates for Senator, Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General were all endorsed by Trump and all are Election Deniers. They won narrow plurality wins in the primary; none of them had a majority of votes cast in the primary.

    [Several hundred words Trumpity Trumpery Trumperoo]

    Gary, Jon managed to write a straightforward, informative 540-word post about the election without once mentioning Donald Trump. Yet there you are jumping in at #3 yammering on about…Donald Trump.

    And then in #19 you accused 9th District of highjacking the post.

    I mean, do you really not see it?

    If Kari Lake, et. al. win it will be done barely. I was pointing out that there is a way to win in Arizona almost every time; nominate a non-crazy Republican like Kimberly Yee who is crushing the Democrat with 55.3% of the vote.

    Or maybe people realize that Kimberly Yee’s position isn’t all that important, compared to governor?

    • #83
  24. Viruscop Inactive
    Viruscop
    @Viruscop

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Blondie (View Comment):

    Titus Techera (View Comment):

    Thanks much for laying out what’s happening. Do you have any idea why the GOP legislature & Governor didn’t, don’t care to improve the system?

    This is a good question, Titus. Florida decided after 2000 that it was tired of looking incompetent and changed things. You would think Arizona would feel the same way.

    Now that the light is off Florida and on Arizona, maybe they will. Although not if they get a Dimocrat governor.

    A Dimocrat governor from the Demonrat Party.

    • #84
  25. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    State Mine Inspector

    It’s kind of hilarious to me that this is an elected office, presumably open to anyone with the interest and wherewithal to run. Don’t you need, you know, some experience with mines and mining to hold this position?

    Probably not, since there are other employees who actually do the inspecting.

    • #85
  26. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    ….

    What would I do I were to receive $1 million dollars, such as winning the lottery?  My answer was simple.  I would tithe to my my church which is a matter of religious faith and doctrine (see Malachi 3:10) and with the remaining $900,000, I would buy a really good nursing home insurance policy and an annuity for the rest.  Then I would close my practice and move to New Hampshire so that I could start organizing for Trump’s defeat.  I would hook on to the strongest candidate who could beat Trump.  I think that that would be DeSantis, but if DeSantis sits this out, I would be there likely for Chris Christie.  That is my life’s calling; I can do no other.

    What was this one, a few THOUSAND words, Trumpery Trumpity Trumperoo?

    • #86
  27. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    TempTime (View Comment):

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    #52 is about 920 words. Is that some kind of record?

    Yeah. I was wondering about that too. Curious.

    I think excessively long, repetitive, comments may reasonably be construed as prima facie evidence of highjacking.

    I suppose this is where I bring up SSM?

    Opinion/Suggestion: I think the 500 word limit is good for everyone equally. If a member requires more than 500 words to express himself — in the comments section of a post originated by a member other them himself — perhaps then the rule should be that the wordy commenting dude if, after exhausting his 500 word limit, still has more to say — he must do so by beginning his own post with the remainder of this thoughts/words.

    That 500 word limit is an invitation to good writing. 

    • #87
  28. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Zafar (View Comment):

    TempTime (View Comment):

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    #52 is about 920 words. Is that some kind of record?

    Yeah. I was wondering about that too. Curious.

    I think excessively long, repetitive, comments may reasonably be construed as prima facie evidence of highjacking.

    I suppose this is where I bring up SSM?

    Opinion/Suggestion: I think the 500 word limit is good for everyone equally. If a member requires more than 500 words to express himself — in the comments section of a post originated by a member other them himself — perhaps then the rule should be that the wordy commenting dude if, after exhausting his 500 word limit, still has more to say — he must do so by beginning his own post with the remainder of this thoughts/words.

    That 500 word limit is an invitation to good writing.

    One problem comes from the 500-word limit applying to also what you’re replying to, not just your own part.

    • #88
  29. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    kedavis (View Comment):

    One problem comes from the 500-word limit applying to also what you’re replying to, not just your own part.

    If one is too lazy/entitled to bother editing what one’s responding to down to the relevant bits….anyway, I think editing is part of good writing and is, in fact, a basic courtesy in this context.

    • #89
  30. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    How did this get to be the topic? This is why I encourage @Jon to start a new post for the Arizona vote results.

    • #90
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