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The Latest Numbers from Arizona
Arizona is famously slow in counting votes. And since the debacle of 2020, state election officials have changed nothing. (I wrote about it here for the Arizona Republic.)
Adding to the confusion is that votes are counted in a specific order. The ballots tabulated so far were mailed in or dropped off before election day, and the ballots filed on election day itself. These tend to support the Democratic candidates. The last returns from these two categories were announced Friday night.
As of Friday night, some in the last category are added to the mix: the so-called “late earlies.” These are mail-in ballots dropped off at polling places on election day. These tend to support the Republican candidates, and the ballots are slower to count since election officials must verify the signature on the outer envelope before opening and counting. Observers for Democrats and Republicans are present throughout this process.
More of these “late earlies” were filed this year since Maricopa County, which holds 62 percent of the state’s residents, had tabulation machine errors. Also, after the mess in 2020, many Republicans and independents don’t trust the post office or drop-boxes to deliver their ballot properly. (Yours truly fits into this category; in my case, due to simple procrastination.)
As of about 8:30 p.m. local time, here are the latest numbers from Arizona. At this stage of the count, Democratic candidates are dominating. This is expected to change somewhat after Saturday’s numbers are released:
Governor
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Kari Lake (R) | 49.3% | 1,068,908 |
| Katie Hobbs (D) | 50.7% | 1,100,005 |
U.S. Senator (race called for Sen. Kelly at 8:15 p.m., Friday, Nov. 11)
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Masters (R) | 46.1% | 1,005,001 |
| √ Mark Kelly (D) | 51.8% | 1,128,917 |
Secretary of State (race called for Adrian Fontes at 8:25 p.m., Friday, Nov. 11)
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Finchem (R) | 47.2% | 1,011,019 |
| √ Adrian Fontes (D) | 52.8% | 1,129,144 |
Attorney General
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Abe Hamadeh (R) | 49.6% | 1,055,522 |
| Kris Mayes (D) | 50.4% | 1,074,673 |
Treasurer
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Kimberly Yee (R) | 55.3% | 1,173,483 |
| Martin Quezada (D) | 44.7% | 947,604 |
Superintendent of Public Instruction
| Candidate | Percentage | Vote Total |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Horne (R) | 49.8% | 1,059,486 |
| Kathy Hoffman (D) | 50.2% | 1,066,151 |
I plan to update these numbers at the end of each day until the various races are called. Which will hopefully happen this year…
So, where do we stand at 8:30 p.m. Friday? I expect the close races (1-2%) to eventually move into the GOP column. That means Kari Lake will be Arizona’s next Governor, Abe Hamadeh our next Attorney General, and Tom Horne our next Superintendent of Public Instruction.
Where GOP candidates lag by a lot (4% or more), I doubt they can make up the gap. That’s why Blake Masters is, very sadly, out of contention, as is Mark Finchem, the Republican nominee for Secretary of State. Both were declared defeated minutes after the latest numbers dropped Friday night and while I was writing this post.
For the record, an estimated 394,521 ballots are yet to be counted. Again, these are expected to favor GOP candidates, especially the 274,885 from Maricopa County.
Published in Elections
I would say evil behavior. Whether the subject is evil might depend on whether you believe in demonic possession or not.
This boggles this reader’s mind! It is Saturday, Nov. 12, five days (!) after election day and you guys have not counted 394,521 ballots?!!! This is insanity. And I don’t know how any race can be called already unless the victor has a 394,521 vote lead, right? Theoretically. I really don’t give a rat’s hindquarters about your governor or state officials, but you’re f’ing up the House and Senate of the United States of America. Fix your election system or maybe America should deny you representation in the U.S. House and Senate.
No, we’re not messing with anything. The new Congress does not convene until early January.
I’d like to know the outcome too, but it’s close, and as I explained on another post, we have an early voting system that allows us to drop off ballots on election day, without showing ID. As a result, there are hundreds of thousands of early ballots that require signature verification. This takes time.
It does not interfere with the government of the country in any way.
Many people seem to think that this delay enables fraud. As if people wanting to commit fraud couldn’t do so earlier, if the counting system were different.
The only problem is that huge numbers of people have the patience of a 3-year-old.
I have always been iffy on the subject. The last few years have given me plenty of evidence that it is.
No, the only problem is that OLD Arizona voters are too lazy to change their voting routine. Get off your damn couch!
I can wait.
But unless Florida doesn’t allow drop off ballots on election day, what you described doesn’t fully explain why Arizona counts votes the way the 1970s Los Angeles Rams offense moved down the football field.
Yes. We need to get this taken care of. Now.
Do you have any specific recommendations?
Does it just come down to having more poll workers-volunteers on election day? Or better technology?
If Kari Lake, et. al. win it will be done barely. I was pointing out that there is a way to win in Arizona almost every time; nominate a non-crazy Republican like Kimberly Yee who is crushing the Democrat with 55.3% of the vote.
Or in other words, as @charlotte suggests, you admit to hijacking the post.
Not really. I asked you the question on another thread and you did not answer at all. I was truly curious about the ballot measure and Coconino county, which seems to be heavily democrat. I didn’t quite see the logic of your extended reply. A simple “I don’t believe in ballot measures” would have sufficed, an analysis of this ballot measure would have been informative. Alas, it was not to be.
Your personal attack on me says quite a bit. I asked the question about voting on threads dedicated to the subject. This post seemed ideal, for Jon gave information about many statewide races but left off the ballot measure. I could have asked on your post about Tiffany Trump’s wedding. That would have been hijacking.
As for hobby horses, I ride real horses. I can handle a 1,200 pound chestnut mare in season. You are not a problem.
No. Jon has posted the current results of the six statewide contested elections. (In the seventh election, “State Mine Inspector,” the Democrats did not field a candidate. Six statewide elections. Republicans have been declared the losers in two races, and there are three very, very close races which can go either way. There was one race where the Republican is running away with a 55.3% landslide, Kimberly Yee for State Treasurer. What does Kimberly Yee have that the five races ahead of her don’t have? Why is she winning by a landslide?
Well, the top four candidates, were all Election Deniers, and repeated the Donald Trump Kool-Aid over and over again. Kimberly Yee did not try to become a Donald Trump clone, and she is winning by a landslide. The moral of the story is if you want to win, just be a simple, ordinary Republican and not be a conspiracy monger.
(There is a sixth race, the Superintendent of Public Instruction where Trump did not endorse Tom Horne. What I know because I have lived in Arizona for most of my life and continuously since 1979 is that Republican Tom Horne had a whole bunch of ethics issues when he was the Attorney General, and was beaten in the Republican Primary.)
Yee is running around 5-7% ahead of the other Republican candidates for statewide office. You attribute this to her being a “non-crazy Republican.”
Yee is the only incumbent, right? Incumbency typically gives an advantage. So to me, it makes more sense to attribute her success to incumbency.
It’s also very insulting to refer to everyone who doesn’t agree with your view of the elections as a “crazy” Republican. I don’t think that you believe that I am a “crazy” Republican, do you?
Gary, please, consider the possibility that you just hate Donald Trump, for whatever reason. You’ve been convinced by opposition propaganda that Trump and Trumpism are threats to “democracy” or something. You keep shifting from one reason to another to oppose Trump and any Republican candidate who doesn’t distance himself from Trump.
I do worry that the actions of a fairly small number of Republicans like you really hurt the electoral prospects of Republicans. There’s a billboard that I saw along First Avenue in Tucson of an older guy, saying something like: “I’m a Republican, I’m a Veteran, I’m voting Hobbs.” I think that this sort of thing may be quite effective among a number of independents.
I want to put this to you starkly, Gary. We’re friends. There’s a Dark Side and a Light Side. Who do you think is on the Dark Side — me, or Katie Hobbs?
If you don’t think it’s me, then please, bury the hatchet and come back to supporting Republican candidates.
You forgot the, let’s see, how did @charlotte put it?:
[Several hundred words Trumpity Trumpery Trumperoo]
The AZ Republican Party spent the last 2 years fighting itself. And of course the biggest fight was the 2020 vote count. do you think in that atmosphere they’d be able to straighten out the voting process?
You didn’t address Charlotte’s point at all. As usual.
@charlotte … if you don’t have any plans to copyright this phrase, I am prepared to file the paperwork:
“several hundred words Trumpity Trumpery Trumperoo“
All yours, baby. Do your worst. :-)
No question that @garyrobbins highjacked Jon’s post.
Jon’s post was a report on vote counts so far and where there were votes to be counted with a little flavor of where his preferences were and how they were doing.
Gary entered with his standard diatribe about why the vote results were going the way they were.
Gary does this at every opportunity on a main feed post.
It’s kind of hilarious to me that this is an elected office, presumably open to anyone with the interest and wherewithal to run. Don’t you need, you know, some experience with mines and mining to hold this position?
Well, yes. Sure, but you do know that the only thing that really matters is Trumpity, Trumpery, Trumperoo!
Jerry, we are friends. I admire and respect you. And I think that you and my physician brother have a blind spot when it comes to the results of the 2020 election. He keeps pointing me to crazy websites and podcasts which have byzantine conspiracies about how computers were hacked and the election results for Trump were changed so he would lose, while they weren’t magically changed for any other race. I love my brother. He has just gone down the rabbit hole on the 2020 election. We can either argue over that at lunch, or we can talk about other things, like his children, how I can lose more weight, or how we can care for our mother.
This is what I believe. The sun rises in the east. Six million Jews died in the Holocaust. Bush did not know about 9/11 beforehand. Bush won in 2000 and 2004, and Trump won in 2016. Obama was born in Hawaii not Kenya. Santa Claus really isn’t real. And based on the complete lack of proof by Trump, Biden was elected in 2020.
My great nieces believe in Santa Claus. I still love them. I think that it is kinda sweet, and I remember where I was when I first realized that Santa Claus simply didn’t make sense. That was a stunning realization, akin when my parents answered my question while being in their car at Camelback Road and 44th Street, that sooner or later I was going to die of old age, even if I weren’t killed in an accident or being murdered, etc.
My beloved Father became a Birther, and he saw that as a magic way to knock out Obama. I tried to point out to him that Obama’s birth was reported in Hawaii newspapers after he was born, but when my father stuck to his guns, I did not argue with him further. Frankly, this was one of the first signs of dementia for him. He was still my father. I still loved him, and honored him as my father. But he had a delusion about Birtherism.
I have appointed by the Court to represented mentally ill people or people with dementia in guardianship and conservatorship cases. They are still children of God, just as I am. They just have delusions. (Don’t we all?)
I think that Trump is engaging in crazy talk. I think that many, many people think that that is crazy talk. Some of them will say, well, Trump’s other policies were good, so I can tolerate that crazy talk, because I really, really dislike Democrat policies. But others of us, and it looks like we number 104,000+ Arizona voters so far, simply refuse to vote for Republicans who engage in crazy talk, but will vote for a standard issue Republican like Kimberly Yee.
It looks like two Republicans are winning the two seats at large seats on the Corporation Commission. What do they have in common with Kimberly Yee? They also haven’t embraced the Trump crazy talk about the 2020 election. (Since the Corporation Commission sets utility rates, it is a favorite target for Democrats who promote “lower” power bills.)
While Kimberly Yee is an incumbent, being the State Treasurer is frankly a very small and relatively obscure position. It could be argued that Kimberly Yee would be doing better if other Republicans candidates on the ticket for the four races above her, Senator, Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General, had not all gone down the Trump rabbit hole.
I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 out of a huge distaste for him, his birtherism until he finally dropped it, and how he trashed every other Republican who had run for President before him. The thing that troubled me the most was that he said that Hillary could only beat him if she cheated. So I voted for Evan McMullin.
In 2020, I was further deeply troubled by Trump not saying that he would accept the election results if Biden won. For the first time in 48 years, I voted for a Democrat for President. (At this rate, I will next vote for a Democrat for President in 2068, when I am 116 years old.)
But I have gone, way, way, way farther than now than how I “felt” in 2016 and 2020. There are two events in my adult life that totally radicalized me, 9/11 and the Capitol Riot. In their letter to Trump with their subpoena, the House Select Committee on the January 6th Attack on the Capitol accused Trump of the following:
I believe those things. All ten of them have been proven by clear and convincing evidence, and some of them have been proven in my eyes beyond a reasonable doubt, in that a reasonable doubt is a doubt based upon reason, and not fantasy. If those beliefs mean that we can no longer be friends, then I will be sad about that and I will miss you. I will think well of you and wish you well in life. But I am not willing to lie about my beliefs, and since Trump is an existential threat to the Republic, I am not willing to shut up about that either. If Ricochet decides to kick me off of their site, so be it. If I lose friends, so be it. Arizona Speaker Rusty Bowers ran down the various theories offered to him and found them to not be proved. The same of former Attorney General William Barr. I guess you can say that I am a Rusty Bower/William Barr Republican. Rusty Bowers lost an election over his beliefs. But my two of my nephews are members of the Armed Services and are willing to give up their lives for their country. My Father served in the Navy. My family goes back to before the Revolutionary War. I can give up friends in the protection of my country.
I am locked in. I think that the sooner Republicans can exit from Trump crazy talk, the better, because Democrats are wrong on all of their policies (other than Ukraine). But the Democrats are right on the Rule of Law, and that when a candidate loses an election, they have a duty to concede to their opponent.
What would I do I were to receive $1 million dollars, such as winning the lottery? My answer was simple. I would tithe to my my church which is a matter of religious faith and doctrine (see Malachi 3:10) and with the remaining $900,000, I would buy a really good nursing home insurance policy and an annuity for the rest. Then I would close my practice and move to New Hampshire so that I could start organizing for Trump’s defeat. I would hook on to the strongest candidate who could beat Trump. I think that that would be DeSantis, but if DeSantis sits this out, I would be there likely for Chris Christie. That is my life’s calling; I can do no other.
I think Jon should take this post down and start over with a new post today. Updates to the results he posted will be of interest.
Pro-tip: if the words “Donald Trump” appear anywhere in your lottery-winning fantasy bucket list you’re doing it wrong.
So, did you vote No, or did you vote Yes?
#52 is about 920 words. Is that some kind of record?
But then you actually voted against strengthening voter ID laws. Not abstaining, but voting No. This makes no sense. Leave the voting on this proposition to those who read it and have an opinion about the proposition.
You scuttled your own government’s accountability.
Psychopathy is evil, but I don’t think it necessarily has to involve demon possession.
Here is my preferred election denier, a quote from Paul Craig Roberts:
“Now, ask yourself, what is worse, a stolen US election or an American electorate so insouciant and out to lunch that they would keep a political party in office that is leading us into war with Russia and China, that hates white people and persecutes them, that has politicized the FBI and Department of Justice turning them into Gestapo agencies serving Democrat power, that fervently believes that parents are bad for children and should have no say in their education (brainwashing), that is demonizing normality and normalizing perversity, that . . . I could go on and on. Here was a chance for voters to register their dissent, and according to the vote results they failed to do so. If the vote count is honest, then the conclusion is that we must write off the American people as beings too stupid to survive as a free people.
This is why I much prefer to believe that the election was again stolen.
What can be done about stolen elections? Nothing. Especially when a previously stolen election has left Democrats in control of the executive branch. The executive branch is the police branch. It is not going to enforce election or any law against itself.
The Democrat controlled cities are empires unto themselves. They can steal every election and nothing can be done about it. The media is an appendage to the Democrat party. The media supports whatever the official narrative is.”
Agreed. Human souls are capable of great evil all on their own.
Demons don’t need to posses most people.