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Arizona is famously slow in counting votes. And since the debacle of 2020, state election officials have changed nothing. (I wrote about it here for the Arizona Republic.)
Adding to the confusion is that votes are counted in a specific order. The ballots tabulated so far were mailed in or dropped off before election day, and the ballots filed on election day itself. These tend to support the Democratic candidates. The last returns from these two categories were announced Friday night.
As of Friday night, some in the last category are added to the mix: the so-called “late earlies.” These are mail-in ballots dropped off at polling places on election day. These tend to support the Republican candidates, and the ballots are slower to count since election officials must verify the signature on the outer envelope before opening and counting. Observers for Democrats and Republicans are present throughout this process.
More of these “late earlies” were filed this year since Maricopa County, which holds 62 percent of the state’s residents, had tabulation machine errors. Also, after the mess in 2020, many Republicans and independents don’t trust the post office or drop-boxes to deliver their ballot properly. (Yours truly fits into this category; in my case, due to simple procrastination.)
As of about 8:30 p.m. local time, here are the latest numbers from Arizona. At this stage of the count, Democratic candidates are dominating. This is expected to change somewhat after Saturday’s numbers are released:
|Kari Lake (R)||49.3%||1,068,908|
|Katie Hobbs (D)||50.7%||1,100,005|
U.S. Senator (race called for Sen. Kelly at 8:15 p.m., Friday, Nov. 11)
|Blake Masters (R)||46.1%||1,005,001|
|√ Mark Kelly (D)||51.8%||1,128,917|
Secretary of State (race called for Adrian Fontes at 8:25 p.m., Friday, Nov. 11)
|Mark Finchem (R)||47.2%||1,011,019|
|√ Adrian Fontes (D)||52.8%||1,129,144|
|Abe Hamadeh (R)||49.6%||1,055,522|
|Kris Mayes (D)||50.4%||1,074,673|
|Kimberly Yee (R)||55.3%||1,173,483|
|Martin Quezada (D)||44.7%||947,604|
Superintendent of Public Instruction
|Tom Horne (R)||49.8%||1,059,486|
|Kathy Hoffman (D)||50.2%||1,066,151|
I plan to update these numbers at the end of each day until the various races are called. Which will hopefully happen this year…
So, where do we stand at 8:30 p.m. Friday? I expect the close races (1-2%) to eventually move into the GOP column. That means Kari Lake will be Arizona’s next Governor, Abe Hamadeh our next Attorney General, and Tom Horne our next Superintendent of Public Instruction.
Where GOP candidates lag by a lot (4% or more), I doubt they can make up the gap. That’s why Blake Masters is, very sadly, out of contention, as is Mark Finchem, the Republican nominee for Secretary of State. Both were declared defeated minutes after the latest numbers dropped Friday night and while I was writing this post.
For the record, an estimated 394,521 ballots are yet to be counted. Again, these are expected to favor GOP candidates, especially the 274,885 from Maricopa County.Published in