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The Logic of a Primary Challenge
I just don’t see it. I know there are those who honestly think that a primary challenge to President Trump before the 2020 election could actually succeed in getting a different Republican elected, but I don’t see any way in which that makes sense.
In 2016, Donald Trump soundly defeated a solid Republican primary field. Since then, the dire predictions of a Trump presidency have failed to materialize. In fact, the most common comment made by Republicans who don’t particularly care for Trump is “he’s doing better than I expected.” Conservatives generally approve of his policies, and many of us are surprised at how well his efforts to deregulate and spur economic growth have succeeded. A large majority of Republicans continue to express their support for the President,
Now, with the completion of the Mueller investigation, the dark cloud looming over the administration has vanished. The Democrats are tripping over each other in a crazed rush to the left, even as the Trump administration has slowly racked up conservative wins — justices, taxes, jobs, wages, Israel — that seem the product of a much more traditionally conservative administration.
President Trump often speaks incautiously, exaggerates, and tends to be thin-skinned and petty. He has found himself in daily opposition to a national press that… speaks incautiously, exaggerates, and tends to be thin-skinned and petty — as well as insufferably self-righteous, arrogant, and biased. After two years, it is hard to argue that the President is taking more of a beating than the press, and this perception that one man stands against the liberal tide is not lost on many of us who were skeptical of candidate Trump but who have come to appreciate the value of his tenacity and pugilistic temperament.
Given all that, and given the absence of a new and powerful candidate on the right, one who holds the promise of being more statesmanlike than Trump while also being at least as conservative, impervious, aggressive, and steadfast as Trump — given the absence of such a figure, it seems extraordinarily unlikely that an effort to defeat President Trump in a primary has any serious chance of succeeding.
I think there’s also good reason to believe that a successful Trump challenger would lose the support of a wide swath of Trump supporters in the general, while picking up only the handful of disgruntled conservatives who, even after years of successful conservative governance, insist that they won’t vote for the man.
In short, it seems like a fantasy, a bit of wishful thinking motivated, I suspect, more by offense and outrage that this vulgar man has found success in our party than by any practical consideration of what’s best for the conservative cause over the next six years.
I think we should work together to play the hand we have, which turns out to be better than most of us expected.
Published in Elections
Gary, my answer to all five is “no, I don’t believe that.” (Or “well, I seriously doubt that.”) Now, I have a quick question for you. In 2020 America can anyone, of either party, get elected without comparably awful character? Is there even a single candidate on the Democrat side without comparably awful (or even worse) character? Certainly you could name Republicans with better character, but they would have no chance of winning. So why the double-standards? Why the wishful thinking? The sad truth is that you are not going to get a President of high moral character. Not now. Not anymore. The best you can hope for is a President who does mostly the right things. So you’d better learn to be satisfied with that.
Sorry, I was wrong. I should only say I would like to see Henry recover from this devastating argument.
Yes.
Sorry if I miss some. I’m usually multi-tasking when I’m on Ricochet and get diverted by other projects. If the question has been left hanging too long I assume it’s stale.
If the R party nominates Hulk Hogan and Bill Weld, I don’t see how third party would be worse.
It would be a great 2nd chance for the libertarians to flub their nominee and forego a second libertarian moment in less than a decade.
The current Bill Weld is too strange for fiction, but I don’t know his whole history.
I got it! Trump could run as a fake libertarian! Winning the 2020 election and breaking the stranglehold of the dual-uni-party system, thereby making American politics great again!
Who is disqualified by reason of character?
I can’t think of any current Democrat who has such bad “character.” Several of them are disqualified by reason of policy; I am not a socialist, and believe that socialism is disqualifying by reason of policy.
In recent history, I would disqualify George Wallace when he ran for President in 1968 and 1972 by reason of character. (However, after George Wallace apologized for his past racist views when he ran for Alabama Governor in 1982, he was no longer disqualified by reason of character. Good for him.)
In 1991 David Duke was the Republican candidate for Governor of Louisana. He was disqualified in my mind by reason of character.
In 2018 Arnold Jones was the Republican Candidate in IL-3. He is a Holocaust Denier. He would neither admit or deny an affiliation with a Neo-Nazi party. He was disqualified in my mind by reason of character.
I would disqualify by reason of character several of the overtly racists who were in the Democratic Party before the 1965 Voting Rights Act.
What Republicans could win in 2020?
I think Trump will lose in 2020, also causing us to lose the Senate and hundreds more state legislators. In 2016, we won the national House vote by 1.1%, 49.1% to 48.0%. In 2018, we lost the national House vote by 8.6%, 53.4% to 44.8%. Given this massive 9.7% swing, I assert that Trump is too toxic and will be an albatross. However, given how far left the Dems are going in 2020, I think that a Non-Trump Republican could win in 2020 and could win back the House, while retaining the Senate.
You are a great sport, and a good man.
I see a bunch of liars that like central planning, heavy taxation, and social engineering. #vomit
Look at what Obama did.
Haven’t you told us 100 times that Republicans are no better? Shouldn’t we at least have someone less abrasive to let folks get on with their lives?
But Obama was wrong based on policy, not character.
My five examples of Trump’s lack of character were (a) that Obama was born in Kenya, (b) that Ted Cruz’s father helped assassinate JFK, (c) that Trump “really” won the popular vote, (d) that Trump had a larger inauguration crowd than Obama, or (e) that it really wasn’t Trump’s voice on the Access Hollywood recording, Obama never said something so delusional.
O.K. the Democrats are worse. I guess what I mean is they promise more and it’s obviously going to be worse. The Republicans just try to get past the next election.
Obama’s a liar who two-faced on abortion but was so strident about it, he flubbed his “faceless” record in the Senate to vote yes on partial birth abortion – the only thing he didn’t vote “present” on.
Obama does not have the character you think he does. He only looks nice to people too shallow to look past pretty clothes and pretty words.
The lie to get power and then they impose socialist regression on us. I just don’t think like you at all.
The only one that bothers me is the one about Ted Cruz. I just don’t see the consequence.
Obama:
https://images.app.goo.gl/LKnPRkmRWvHKZYtE9
Gary and friends:
https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2F66.media.tumblr.com%2F931d3139f7c74cb2814bb4df7a54c368%2Ftumblr_nt2hxldTH31t2smr4o1_500.gif&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Falantlm.tumblr.com%2Fpost%2F126660132464%2Falans-triplets-from-beauty-and-the-beast&docid=gOJaP6u5kmniDM&tbnid=JTVZI0nR_1LLlM%3A&vet=1&w=500&h=246&source=sh%2Fx%2Fim
Edit: I’m so disappointed this didn’t work. @maxledoux what did I do wrong?
So, the Bulwark
Of course not. Telling, isn’t it?
Queen – Fat Bottomed Girls (Official Video)
You say this on a day when Biden is accused of groping again?
Wow. Just wow.
Thank you for using The Bulwark’s given name, and not “Bul****.”
I didn’t find Trump to be disqualified by reason of his serial adulteries. Given Clinton, JFK and LBJ, that would disqualify a whole bunch of people.
And this is a great example of not treating people in good faith. Could we please not create conspiracy theories and not accuse fellow Americans of wanting to ignore the democratic process, based on no more proof than “I don’t trust those people”?
No. Trump banged a porn actress; you shouldn’t do that either.
Can we please not confuse Larry Hogan, governor of Maryland, with Hulk Hogan, professional wrestler? (Side note: if you’re thinking of a professional wrestler turned governor, that would be Jesse Ventura of Minnesota)
Trump was laying the predicate for disputing the election last time in the final week of his campaign, talking of massive illegal alien voting robbing him of his victory and refusing to say he would accept the outcome.
Touche!
I like you.
President Gary Robbins or President Mark Camp?
It’s my good faith belief that Petty is recycling talking points that were used in 2015.