The Logic of a Primary Challenge

 

I just don’t see it. I know there are those who honestly think that a primary challenge to President Trump before the 2020 election could actually succeed in getting a different Republican elected, but I don’t see any way in which that makes sense.

In 2016, Donald Trump soundly defeated a solid Republican primary field. Since then, the dire predictions of a Trump presidency have failed to materialize. In fact, the most common comment made by Republicans who don’t particularly care for Trump is “he’s doing better than I expected.” Conservatives generally approve of his policies, and many of us are surprised at how well his efforts to deregulate and spur economic growth have succeeded. A large majority of Republicans continue to express their support for the President,

Now, with the completion of the Mueller investigation, the dark cloud looming over the administration has vanished. The Democrats are tripping over each other in a crazed rush to the left, even as the Trump administration has slowly racked up conservative wins — justices, taxes, jobs, wages, Israel — that seem the product of a much more traditionally conservative administration.

President Trump often speaks incautiously, exaggerates, and tends to be thin-skinned and petty. He has found himself in daily opposition to a national press that… speaks incautiously, exaggerates, and tends to be thin-skinned and petty — as well as insufferably self-righteous, arrogant, and biased. After two years, it is hard to argue that the President is taking more of a beating than the press, and this perception that one man stands against the liberal tide is not lost on many of us who were skeptical of candidate Trump but who have come to appreciate the value of his tenacity and pugilistic temperament.

Given all that, and given the absence of a new and powerful candidate on the right, one who holds the promise of being more statesmanlike than Trump while also being at least as conservative, impervious, aggressive, and steadfast as Trump — given the absence of such a figure, it seems extraordinarily unlikely that an effort to defeat President Trump in a primary has any serious chance of succeeding.

I think there’s also good reason to believe that a successful Trump challenger would lose the support of a wide swath of Trump supporters in the general, while picking up only the handful of disgruntled conservatives who, even after years of successful conservative governance, insist that they won’t vote for the man.

In short, it seems like a fantasy, a bit of wishful thinking motivated, I suspect, more by offense and outrage that this vulgar man has found success in our party than by any practical consideration of what’s best for the conservative cause over the next six years.

I think we should work together to play the hand we have, which turns out to be better than most of us expected.

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  1. Chris Campion Coolidge
    Chris Campion
    @ChrisCampion

    Amy Schley (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    toggle (View Comment):

    I like the idea that Iran gets squeezed and Israel expands her sovereignty during Trump’s administration.
    I like the idea that our domestic hydrocarbon production is leading the world and we exited the Paris Agreement during Trump’s administration.
    I like the idea that Wall Street indices are at an all-time high, minority unemployment at an all-time low, and our economy is growing faster than before during Trump’s administration.

    I don’t like pencil necks.

    If Trump can call Adam Schiff “pencil neck” can we call Trump “fat *ss” or “fat butt”?

    No. Trump banged a porn actress; you shouldn’t do that either.

    What if it’s your job?

    • #181
  2. Amy Schley Coolidge
    Amy Schley
    @AmySchley

    Chris Campion (View Comment):

    Amy Schley (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    toggle (View Comment):

    I like the idea that Iran gets squeezed and Israel expands her sovereignty during Trump’s administration.
    I like the idea that our domestic hydrocarbon production is leading the world and we exited the Paris Agreement during Trump’s administration.
    I like the idea that Wall Street indices are at an all-time high, minority unemployment at an all-time low, and our economy is growing faster than before during Trump’s administration.

    I don’t like pencil necks.

    If Trump can call Adam Schiff “pencil neck” can we call Trump “fat *ss” or “fat butt”?

    No. Trump banged a porn actress; you shouldn’t do that either.

    What if it’s your job?

    You should get a better job.

    • #182
  3. philo Member
    philo
    @philo

    Moderator Note:

    The CoC advises you to presume good faith of other members, and avoid personal attacks.

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Based upon the information I had before me in 2017, I felt that the Mueller Investigation was warranted, which was the conclusion of the Depiuty AG.

    Could I have been wrong? Sure.

    Was I objectively wrong? I don’t know.

    Interesting that it was presented here and maintained in several repetitions as “abundant probable cause” with great authority of your favorite hacks.  Now it is shrugged off like this.  [Redacted.]

    • #183
  4. Max Ledoux Coolidge
    Max Ledoux
    @Max

    Ed G. (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Also, I have a life to live outside of Ricochet, and I need to get to it.

    Nothing good is going to come out of this argument.

    You can have the last word if you need it on this thread.

    This would have been helpful several pages ago. Next time I’m just going to start flagging you for repeating conspiracy theory crap and for refusing to engage.

    Please don’t. Spamming the moderators is not going to help. 😇

    • #184
  5. Max Ledoux Coolidge
    Max Ledoux
    @Max

    Petty Boozswha (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Joshua Bissey (View Comment):

    Petty Boozswha (View Comment):
    I will not support a man who mocks the handicapped…

    That never happened. You’ll keep claiming it happened. History will probably record that it happened. But that doesn’t change the fact that it never happened.

    I was with Petty. But after looking at video evidence from a fellow Ricochetti that took about 10 minutes to watch, I conclude that I now have a reasonable doubt as to whether Trump actually mocked the disabled reporter. I have many. many, many other things I don’t like about Trump, but since I now don’t know about this one, I don’t mention this one any longer.

    I believe I’ve seen the clips that are supposed to indicate he made similar gestures in other circumstances, but it’s still pretty convincing to me. Maybe not beyond a reasonable doubt. I think a man that mocked the appearance of his opponent’s wife and his former porn companion had demonstrated the same level of self-control as someone who mocked a disabled reporter.

    Gaslighting about his comments on the Flynn investigation are not really productive.

    The point is that he mocks all kinds of people for all kinds of reasons (just like the rest of us) and didn’t single out the reporter for having a disability.

    • #185
  6. Manny Coolidge
    Manny
    @Manny

    I agree with you Henry.  No good can come from a primary challenge to Trump.  The Republican Party would be fractured.  If Trump won the challenge, he would be diminished.  If he lost it, no way in hell the winner could beat the Dems.  

    • #186
  7. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    carcat74 (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Ed G. (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Max Ledoux (View Comment):

    There was no probable cause for the Mueller witch hunt. Rosenstein did not even bother to pretend identify a potential crime to be investigated as required by DOJ regulations and by, I like to think, the Constitution. Mueller instead investigated a man, Trump, searching for a crime, any crime. This is not the way it’s supposed to work.

    I respectfully disagree. Charlie Sykes quoted David Frum as follows:

    “It’s not a theory but a matter of historical record that Vladimir Putin’s Russia hacked American emails and used them to help elect Trump to the presidency.

    “It’s not a theory but a matter of historical record that agents purporting to represent Putin’s Russia approached the Trump campaign to ask whether help would be welcome, to which Donald Trump Jr. replied, ‘If it’s what you say I love it…’

    “It’s not a theory but a matter of historical record that Donald Trump publicly welcomed this help: ‘I love WikiLeaks!’”

    See https://thebulwark.com/no-collusion-no-exoneration/

    There was probable cause to investigate.

    Stop it Gary; this is conspiracy theory stuff from 2015-2017. Frum and Sykes saying it doesn’t make it so. Neither does you repeating it over and over.

    What is your evidence that Russia (as opposed to Russians or anyone else really) hacked anything?

    What is your evidence that the hacking was done to help Trump specifically. How could such an assertion be anything other than wild speculation? Does wild speculation count as probable cause?

    How is having a meeting with a Russian lawyer (not a Russian official), where no information or promises were given, probable cause for spying on a political opponent? This is biased, speculative opinion, not a matter of “historical record.”

    Does it change things if this Russian was also connected to the same firm HRC hired to produce and procure political dirt on her political opponent?

    Is hiring a foreign agent to gather information on a political opponent from Russian officials for the purpose of influencing the election a bigger or smaller problem than accepting a meeting where nothing actually happens?

    Last: are you seriously claiming that Trump’s humorous public speech elements – highlighting HRC’s open and known criminality regarding her private server and her deletion of subpoenaed emails – is probable cause to spy on a political opponent? If so, then what is the thought process? Do you begin with the assumption that these weren’t jokes and were sincere pleas and directives to Russian agents? If they were sincere please and directives, then what is your basis for suspecting that they obeyed? What is your basis for suspecting that Trump gave them something in return?

    Gary I want answers, otherwise you’re just glibly peddling nonsense conspiracy theories and fever swamp hate fantasies. Time to put up or shut up with this crap.

    I am so relieved that Mueller did not find that Trump was an agent of a foreign country, and I accept Meuller’s conclusion.

    The point was not if I believe now in collusion. I don’t.

    The point is not if I used to believe in collusion. I didn’t know and was waiting for the Mueller Report.

    The point is if I believed that there was probable cause to justify an investigation. I did. (The irony is if Trump had not impulsively fired Comey, there would never have been the Mueller Investigation.)

    He fired Comey at Rosenstein’s recommendation!

    There were a whole lot of Democrats who wanted Comey fired for incompetence, malfeasance, etc… until Trump fired him for incompetence, malfeasance, etc.

    • #187
  8. Chris Campion Coolidge
    Chris Campion
    @ChrisCampion

    Amy Schley (View Comment):

    Chris Campion (View Comment):

    Amy Schley (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    toggle (View Comment):

    I like the idea that Iran gets squeezed and Israel expands her sovereignty during Trump’s administration.
    I like the idea that our domestic hydrocarbon production is leading the world and we exited the Paris Agreement during Trump’s administration.
    I like the idea that Wall Street indices are at an all-time high, minority unemployment at an all-time low, and our economy is growing faster than before during Trump’s administration.

    I don’t like pencil necks.

    If Trump can call Adam Schiff “pencil neck” can we call Trump “fat *ss” or “fat butt”?

    No. Trump banged a porn actress; you shouldn’t do that either.

    What if it’s your job?

    You should get a better job.

     

    • #188
  9. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Congressman @DevinNunes calls for a second special counsel to investigate the Russiagate fraud. https://audioboom.com/posts/7217898-congressman-devinnunes-calls-for-a-second-special-counsel-to-investigate-the-russiagate-fraud?utm_campaign=detailpage&utm_content=retweet&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter via @batchelorshow 

    Six minutes.

    • #189
  10. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    You are a great sport, and a good man.

    Thanks, Gary. That encourages me to try to be a bad sport less often, and a bad man less often.

    You’ve already noticed that we’ve got lots of good sports and good men and women on Ricochet.  But like most people, you probably wonder if you are one yourself. (You are the only person who can’t make an independent judgement on it.)

    So you will be glad to know my evaluation, me being one who’s read many of your posts:  you are both a good man and an remarkably good sport, based on that admittedly biased data.  (The possible distortion is that, like most people, you may be trying to keep your worst qualities secret from us.)

    • #190
  11. Henry Racette Member
    Henry Racette
    @HenryRacette

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    You are a great sport, and a good man.

    Thanks, Gary. That encourages me to try to be a bad sport less often, and a bad man less often.

    You’ve already noticed that we’ve got lots of good sports and good men and women on Ricochet. But like most people, you probably wonder if you are one yourself. (You are the only person who can’t make an independent judgement on it.)

    So you will be glad to know my evaluation, me being one who’s read many of your posts: you are both a good man and an remarkably good sport, based on that admittedly biased data. (The possible distortion is that, like most people, you may be trying to keep your worst qualities secret from us.)

    Mark, I have a file cataloguing Gary’s very worst qualities, which I can send to you for a surprisingly modest monetary consideration. (I must warn you that the parts involving yogurt cost a considerable amount more, but are well worth it.)

    • #191
  12. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    You are a great sport, and a good man.

    Thanks, Gary. That encourages me to try to be a bad sport less often, and a bad man less often.

    You’ve already noticed that we’ve got lots of good sports and good men and women on Ricochet. But like most people, you probably wonder if you are one yourself. (You are the only person who can’t make an independent judgement on it.)

    So you will be glad to know my evaluation, me being one who’s read many of your posts: you are both a good man and an remarkably good sport, based on that admittedly biased data. (The possible distortion is that, like most people, you may be trying to keep your worst qualities secret from us.)

    Mark, I have a file cataloguing Gary’s very worst qualities, which I can send to you for a surprisingly modest monetary consideration. (I must warn you that the parts involving yogurt cost a considerable amount more, but are well worth it.)

    I Liked this but GR is going to Love it.

    • #192
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