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The Logic of a Primary Challenge
I just don’t see it. I know there are those who honestly think that a primary challenge to President Trump before the 2020 election could actually succeed in getting a different Republican elected, but I don’t see any way in which that makes sense.
In 2016, Donald Trump soundly defeated a solid Republican primary field. Since then, the dire predictions of a Trump presidency have failed to materialize. In fact, the most common comment made by Republicans who don’t particularly care for Trump is “he’s doing better than I expected.” Conservatives generally approve of his policies, and many of us are surprised at how well his efforts to deregulate and spur economic growth have succeeded. A large majority of Republicans continue to express their support for the President,
Now, with the completion of the Mueller investigation, the dark cloud looming over the administration has vanished. The Democrats are tripping over each other in a crazed rush to the left, even as the Trump administration has slowly racked up conservative wins — justices, taxes, jobs, wages, Israel — that seem the product of a much more traditionally conservative administration.
President Trump often speaks incautiously, exaggerates, and tends to be thin-skinned and petty. He has found himself in daily opposition to a national press that… speaks incautiously, exaggerates, and tends to be thin-skinned and petty — as well as insufferably self-righteous, arrogant, and biased. After two years, it is hard to argue that the President is taking more of a beating than the press, and this perception that one man stands against the liberal tide is not lost on many of us who were skeptical of candidate Trump but who have come to appreciate the value of his tenacity and pugilistic temperament.
Given all that, and given the absence of a new and powerful candidate on the right, one who holds the promise of being more statesmanlike than Trump while also being at least as conservative, impervious, aggressive, and steadfast as Trump — given the absence of such a figure, it seems extraordinarily unlikely that an effort to defeat President Trump in a primary has any serious chance of succeeding.
I think there’s also good reason to believe that a successful Trump challenger would lose the support of a wide swath of Trump supporters in the general, while picking up only the handful of disgruntled conservatives who, even after years of successful conservative governance, insist that they won’t vote for the man.
In short, it seems like a fantasy, a bit of wishful thinking motivated, I suspect, more by offense and outrage that this vulgar man has found success in our party than by any practical consideration of what’s best for the conservative cause over the next six years.
I think we should work together to play the hand we have, which turns out to be better than most of us expected.
Published in Elections
A primary challenge will result in losing to the Democrats. If people are for that, then they are for losing to the Democrats.
We know they are, because they wanted us to lose in 2016 and lose in 2018. Rooted for it. And are rooting for that loss in 2020. To them, being right is more important than winning elections.
If by “honestly think” you mean “desperately hope” then you are correct in at least one case. (“Good faith” my arse.) But you are correct, it is a fantasy and it won’t happen.
But I also not only do not fear a primary challenge but I welcome one [or more]. Clearly, the one chance for the non-progressive party to hold the White House for another four years is Mr. Trump and he is at his best when he is actively in the game. While undiluted focus on the opponent horse race is also wildly beneficial to his candidacy, having him exercised and already on the move as things move into convention season and beyond is the best scenario.
Also, thanks for not using the “B” word.
[EDIT]
First, I’m not sure who would even make it competetive. Rubio, Cruz? I don’t think either would do any better this time around. Rubio, I don’t know if he’ll ever regain his prior mojo.
Second, replacing Trump would be a blunder. The kind of blunder Republicans have become known for, the kind of blunder that partly brought us Trump. It would be a retreat right when we have some game going in the culture and when they have insanity on the rise..
What is in our interest in the short term will haunt us in the long term. I completely agree
Trumpkinsshrewd and discerning Trump enthusiasts, and Mr. Trump himself, will go on a petulant jihad rather than accept the democratic process. I don’t think that fact should be held as a veto over our considering other alternatives. Larry Hogan advertises himself as a Reagan Republican that has adapted to governing a blue state. Elected to a national office I cannot imagine one good thing Trump has done that Hogan would not continue and do better.I could quibble with some of your assertions – Trump did not soundly defeat a Republican field, he emerged from the demolition derby unscathed until the end when the only viable alternative reminded voters of Grandpa Munster. He did this with $2 billion in free air time from CNN and MSNBC -remember that Joe Scarborough was semi-seriously discussed as Trump’s VP running mate – and a series of black swan events that will never be repeated. I also think it’s quite unlikely that the economy will repeat in the next two years what we’ve experienced in the last two due to relief from Obamanomics.
I think the most likely outcome is Republicans will know in their hearts my position is correct but will still ride the Trump train to a 40 state wipeout, losing the Senate in the process, because altering this pattern of inertia is too much hard work.
It could motivate Trump’s base to better organize early on which would have a positive carry-forward effect going into the general.
It would also suck in 99.9% of media coverage with all Trump all the time. In the meantime, under the cover of darkness, the D primary candidates would be able to overindulge in more promises of free this and further central government control over that in an effort by each to outmaneuver the other to the left.
By the time the general campaign they will have managed to nominate a SJW who would make Calypso Louie look like a paragon of moderation. McGovern déjà vu all over again ?
Mojo? Are you serious? I guess I missed that part.
And insofar as the insanity part, it seems to be contagious. Like the Plague.
A primary challenge is a waste of time & money. Trump will be the 2020 candidate and he will win.
Hogan is a higher quality human being than President Trump.
He is not as conservative, though. We will get better policies and outcomes from Trump. We would get less drama from Hogan.
A fair trade I think.
The debate reminds me of that around Brexit. Each side makes a strong case that each of the others will be a disaster. They’ve convinced me that they’re right.
An electorate that can sustain itself as a self-governing society can only be the fruit of sturdy republican institutions of the previous generation. If they were failed institutions then, there’s nothing to be done now. The future of a democracy that inherited a faith consisting of drugs, sex, rock and roll, and the nanny state, with nothing but a moral and intellectual void under it as foundation, could be told now, without running the hideous experiment that we are living through.
Some new spiritual and intellectual revival will be needed. It will come in one form or another.
I agree. On the night of Trump’s election I quoted John Adams: Our Constitution was made only for a religious and moral people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.
I was, and am today, more horrified by the abdication of the pharisees of the evangelical community than any other aspect of the Trump phenomenon.
Larry Hogan? The bloggers I follow in Maryland are not fans of him. Do you have an evidence that he won’t fold like a cheap suit under the pressure democrats apply to any (and I mean any) GOP candidate? Any times that he took a tough position against the dems?
Seriously, do you have a Kavanaugh-like candidate hiding somewhere? Someone with conservative principles, likeable civility, and an unbreakable iron will? Our candidate must be willing to be hated by all leftists, viewed as Hitler coated in liquid Satan by the Media. Do you have such a candidate?
I support one for the laughs. This season has been pretty great, I mean emmys all around for the writers that came up with the Devin Nunes Cow lawsuit subplot! I still laugh just thinking about that chump, suing his cow!
But I could see a primary challenge as a fun plot twist. My hope is the writers pick The Rock to run. (He might win!)
Hogan stood up to the abortion lobby opposing a recent pro-abortion law, even thought they had a super-majority in the legislature and the general public of the state, and could dismiss his opposition.
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson!!!
He’s the People’s Champion!
The Bulwark-type people have a business model and selling out American requires an endless stream of intra-party fighting to keep the lights on. They aren’t just fanatics, but desperate for the cash.
Have Hogan primary Trump? I did not even know Hulk Hogan was a Republican. To me the whole thing sounds like a subplot in The Fallible Fiend, a humorous fantasy novel by L. Sprague de Camp.
Who knows? Maybe a wrestling star could beat Trump and win the Presidency. That is certainly more likely than a politician – say a governor – primarying Trump and having any result other than total political humiliation or possibly giving the election to a socialist.
Spin. Hogan governs as pro-choice–non-confrontationally and in acceptance of the status quo. End of story.
Well, I’m not serious in that I think mojo is some quantifiable property of political attractiveness. It’s casual shorthand for the fact that Rubio used to be a hot property on the rise, but not so much anymore.
As far as the insanity part I sense a backhand, but I don’t know which part you think I’m being insane about. It helps if you state it explicitly.
There’s a lot of life to be lived between now and Jan 2020. I intend to do that living and at some point I will be casting a vote in the Republican primary. Until then it’s important to remember the wise alleged words of Harold McMillan describing what will influence his administration, “Events, dear boy, events.”
I agree with all of this, but draw a far different conclusion than Petty.
How on earth does a people raised in this cultural rot manage to rally behind the kind of man you think should exemplify America?
The very sad (but very true) fact is that Trump does exemplify American culture – and we can debate whose fault it is that that’s the case, but this rot has been settling since the 90s… well before Trump ran for President.
If a scant middle schooler could tell the underpinnings of values was being ripped out, how is it all the political leaders who seemed to value those underpinnings found them so irrelevant? Were you all having a classical liberal/libertarian moment in the conservative party?
Trump is the result of 20 years of cultural decay.
We absolutely need a revival… but right now, Trump is emphatically what we all deserve.
You are not going to change the culture by voting for a (better) pope.
Cultural change is affected at lower institutions. Politics is downstream of culture (Andrew Breitbart). You need to find what is upstream.
Religious revival begins in churches. You want to affect cultural change? Get in your church and start changing them.
Sorry, I’m not used to being taken seriously.
No backhand at all, Mr. Ed! The party of AOC et al has gone nuts and it seems to be getting worse and worse. That is the insanity to which I was referring, nothing at all of yours. Our only disagreement is a very minor one, if it is anything – I don’t believe Little Marco would have survived even absent the Donald. He just did not measure up. All Trump did was accelerate his demise.
I have noticed that the Cult of the Anti-Trump Primary believes that the Sacrament of Holy Primary Challenge will begin a process of cleansing the Republican Party of the sin of MAGA. It may take a few election cycles, but they believe that non-deplorable voters will forgive the GOP for its MAGA season, assured that we are now tame, and ready to
give our country fully into the hands of race-baiting, infanticidal, socialist gun-bannersbe reasonable.Won’t happen. In a world where the GOP is still blamed for being pro-slavery during the Civil War, what makes anyone think we’ll be forgiven for whatever Trump is accused of doing? Love him or hate him, the GOP will bear that slightly orange shade for generations.
Most of this comment appears to be from 2015.
You folks have nearly convinced me to challenge Trump in the primary. But let me warn you, I plan a Lethal Weapon style campaign that will make PDT seem like the more presidential guy. I will also throw in some Triumph the Insult Comic Dog mixed with the spirit of Rodney Dangerfield and spend my days shredding the Democrats in a way that will make debate moderators blush and cause PDT to ask me to “take it down a few notches”. I am almost ready to announce. Almost.
Hogan. Haha.
Thanks for reminding me that I voted for Trump because of CNN and MSNBC. I’d forgotten that was the reason, mostly because I don’t own a TV.
With respect, I am so sick of that quote. Nothing could be further from the truth. Our Constitution was made for a corrupt and rapacious people, with the full expectation that they would elect corrupt and rapacious leaders. Everything about the Constitution was designed to limit and check the behavior of those leaders – The separation of powers, the checks and balances, the enumerated powers, the system of federalism, the express prohibitions on government overreach contained in the Bill of Rights. All of these building blocks of the Constitution presupposed that politicians (and the voters who elect them) would try to do very bad things, and needed to be stopped whenever possible.
If you really want to know what our Constitution is about look to the guy who wrote the thing, Madison, who said, “If men were angels, no government would be necessary.” And look to the guy who justified it all in the Federalist Papers, Hamilton, who added, “If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself.”
Could we please tone back the rhetoric and treat each other in good faith?
Does anyone think there’s any chance President Trump will decide himself not to run?
No, but it does raise the interesting question of who would be the front-runner Republican if he did. I would have to think it would be Pence, who could run as bringing a second Trump term, without the Trump personality. Of course, I’m not entirely sure that Pence hasn’t been the secret President all along, given the wild disparities between how Trump talks and what his Administration actually does.