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Trump Takes SC, Rubio Second, Cruz a Close Third
With 99.8 percent of the South Carolina vote counted (as of 11pm ET), the GOP primary now looks like a three-man race:
| Trump | 32.5% |
| Rubio | 22.5% |
| Cruz | 22.3% |
| Bush | 7.8% |
| Kasich | 7.6% |
| Carson | 7.2% |
While I’ll disagree with you on Rubio and his street cred, I’ll fully agree with you on the second part of your comment.
But, this is what “we” asked for (well, not me. I’ve been saying for 2 years, well maybe 4, that you’re creating a monster that will eat you alive by appealing to these self-proclaimed “conservatives”).
Now, enjoy them. At least, you better learn something from this experiment in absurdity: be careful what you wish for because you might actually get it.
We have a pretty extensive history of multi-round elections with “send a message” candidates and parties outside America. Inside America, you get the occasional Pat Buchanan, but that’s mostly it. It isn’t unusual for them to do well in the first rounds, but it is very unusual for that success to be maintained. The desire to “send a message” weakens with time, and the desire to not have Trump/ Le Pen/ whoever grows. The big WTA states are late enough in the cycle that it seems likely to me that Trump will have worn out his support and opposition will have coalesced.
Maybe I’m wrong; predictions are hard, especially about the future. Still, that’s why I’m not sweating too much about a Trump victory. That combines with Trump having become a far more traditional candidate (I recognize that the latter mitigates against the former, but I think his talent lies in being an untraditional candidate). The New Trump of the last month and a bit does a lot less harm to the GOP brand than 2015 Trump. Both Trump and Cruz probably do need to be paid off somehow, once they’re beaten (I don’t think a SCOTUS appointment works, and Cruz doesn’t have an issue movement that could be supported, but maybe pre-eminent place at the Convention and a pre-announced cabinet role (AG?) might work; some sort of “fence czar” position for Trump?), but if they choose to support the party, and I suspect that they won’t go full Newt/ Paul, things look pretty good for the cycle so far. The New Hampshire debate was a disaster with long running consequences, and Bush stayed on too long, but the future looks bright.
I’ve only been saying this for the past 4 years. “Conservatism” means nothing anymore, other than “I’m an angry person who’s angry that no one is listening to me and I’m afraid my own shadow may be after my jerb”.
You are the prototypical Trump voter, that’s for sure.
Yes, but that is Trump’s genius. He has a scandal every single day. One more thing that puts him on the front page, and steps on everyone else’s moments. Even the bad stuff… everyone is outraged, then a sane sounding Trump comes out, and walks it back, and then that is on the front page for the next day!
I do not know how Trump got the Pope to attack him, but it was genius. (I doubt it was planned, just you are so right! Have the man many Evangels despise most pick a fight… ) Poof… get a third of the vote.
I wish I knew what Trump would do if he won. I have no idea what his core beliefs are at all.
Every election is a risk. But this one? It could be suicide! Trump needs no one, so no one can stop him if he gets out of control.
Except that I’m a Cruz voter. Try again.
LOL. Indeed. The Trumpeters are salivating at the mouth at the prospect of all those good sweatshop “jerbs” coming back from China. At last, they’ll finally be hireable for a job they are qualified to do.
That thought crossed my mind too, but I still found it interesting. I think a lot of the Cruz should drop out talk is kind of panicky.
Mike I respect your opinion. Where does Cruz go if he can’t win in SC? Will you, like me, hold your nose and vote for Rubio if he’s the nominee?
A difference without a distinction.
I don’t care if he’s a real conservative or a really good fake, and immigration isn’t my number 1 issue. But Marco has not showed us that he can withstand the hate machine the way Cruz has.
2012 Republican Primary Results for South Carolina:
Results
Updated Jan. 22 | 100% reporting
VOTES
PERCENT
DELEGATES*
Newt Gingrich
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum
Ron Paul
Others
What could anyone offer Trump? He was willing to step aside for Romney last time. There was something about Romney that he liked. What ever that is… what ever he is really after, assuming he hasn’t gotten so used to the idea of being President now, what ever that is.
He got in because Obama failed in foreign policy, but I bet it’s trade that is dear to his heart. The rest is just pandering. He talks about China the most… tariffs.
I think the wall was poll tested, not genuine, because he criticized Romney for the same position just 4 years ago.
The problem is, trying to negotiate with Trump is hazardous. He would announce it and spin it to make everyone look bad.
If Cruz ever leaves the race, I will transfer my support to Donald Trump. I simply cannot forgive Rubio for his role in the Gang of Eight bill. Trump is far from perfect, but he is right on the issue about which I care the most: immigration and border security.
Should Rubio be the nominee, I will withhold my vote in the general election.
It’s interesting to compare the 2012 results with today’s for South Carolina. Gingrich supporters went for Trump? I wonder.
Romney and Rubio supporters would be close to the same block of people.
To let Clinton win? That’s irrational, cutting-off-your-nose-etc.
You say that immigration is your top issue. Rubio might have rolled over on the Gang of Eight deal . . . but Clinton will fling the borders open (more Democratic voters, you know).
Mike, don’t agree but I certainly understand your position. I couldn’t forgive Poppy Bush for sandbagging Bob Dole with his “read my lips” promise on taxes, then violating it. I voted Libertarian that year.
I don’t think that Cruz is out; he needs to pick up considerably, but if he wins Nevada, has a great debate on Thursday, and delivers a stellar performance on Super Tuesday, winning not just Texas by a tremendous proportion, but all seven Southern states and the Minnesota, North Dakota, and Colorado Caucuses, he’ll be delivering a Santorum plus candidacy. It wouldn’t mean mathematically that he’d be the obvious victor (unless he wins absolute majorities, the proportionate allocation of delegates doesn’t yield huge differences), but it’d mean that he was the obvious leader and that’d probably be enough pressure for voters to coalesce around him and push him over the top.
If he performs in line with current polls on Super Tuesday, he probably doesn’t have a clear line to the end; if he loses across the non-Texas South, where does he go to catch up? Nonetheless, “the polls suggest that defeat is the plurality outcome in this election” is not the sort of message that a successful politician hears and responds to by throwing in the towel. Cruz’s promise not to go quietly into the night tonight was kind of terrifying, but a promise of that nature was probably inevitable.
I think it’s a shame that Francis suggested that he wasn’t a Christian on the basis of statements not about Christ, confirming Francis’ general level of talent at, and interest in, theological analysis. I also agree that Francis was very helpful to Trump and Cruz. We already knew about the Papal approach to scripture though, and it’s hard to blame him for not being smart about American politics; when you don’t have a JPII/ BXVI sort of a genius in the position, it seems entirely reasonable for Popes not to devote the effort it takes to speak thoughtfully about the subject.
Regardless of how I vote (or don’t vote), Hillary Clinton will not be the next President of the United States. In a general election, Cruz, Trump, or Rubio would beat her handily.
Dad, Mike’s in Texas. It’s fine.
Ummm have you seen Cruz’s negatives. And did you notice all the ads that Bush ran trying to bring down Rubio’s negatives.
Cruz hasn’t gotten half the hate Rubio has. And most of Cruz’s is because he had too much pride to see that his campaign really did try to steal Carson’s votes. He only apologized for half of what was done, that didn’t cut it.
Rubio does seem wet behind the ears. But he is very likable and very inspiring. That is half the battle.
And I am in WA, so my vote counts for naught either.
I thought this was about the best result Rubio could realistically hope for. He put in a respectable second place to cement his status as a viable candidate, and then Jeb Bush dropped out. I would assume that the majority of Jeb voters will move to Rubio. The same goes for Kasich – when he gets out, Rubio is going to pick up the majority of his voters.
Then the establishment is going to kick in behind Rubio, he’s going to pick up endorsements, more money will flow in, and he’ll become the primary opponent to Trump.
Or, as soon as he’s the ‘establishment’ candidate, he’ll become the new Bush/Kasich and voters will flee.
How’s that for a hedge?
JoEngland, I agree with your premise. If Cruz wins every primary and leaves Trump wimpering in the corner he still has a shot. But my question is if he couldn’t win in a state with the demographics of South Carolina where is he going to win [besides Texas]? He’s a very bright man, he sees the writing on the wall. If Rubio offered the Supreme Court appointment I think he would take it.
Right, but Rubio can’t put him in charge of dealing with trade for the same reason that he couldn’t put Paul in charge of Defense, in addition to the degree to which Trump’s interactions with foreign media would put awful incentives in place for foreign leaders.
Further I’m pretty sure the trade stuff is pandering, too. His most absurd line at CPAC was about going to China and making them give us the jobs back, but he’s said lots of nicer things about globalization and economic integration in the past.
No, he criticized Romney for “self-deportation”. It’s a mistake to conflate immigration into one issue. My guess is that his belief in the Trump brilliance at building things is very genuine indeed, and that building a Great Wall of Trump would be right up his street.
The nice thing about the wall is that it’s actually pretty bipartisan. Having Trump as a real estate developer looks to his strengths and would emphasize the good work being done on the wall. Heck, the offer could be made publicly early on. Trump’s certification that he would be handling that stuff would help Rubio gain trust in wall building commitments without costing too much. One of the keys to negotiation is to be genuine, to find a solution that results in everyone’s brand being improved (except Texans grumpy about eminent domain, but Texas ain’t a swing state).
There’s the winning message of the future! “The GOP: now with more elitists.” *Small Print* “Stupid factory workers not allowed”
Nonsense. And he’s right about Mike Murphy. This should be fairly uncontroversial. I’m not a Cruz guy, but if you think Trump and Cruz supporters are the same, you know very little about either.
And what if Trump offers Cruz the same deal? Or offers it first? Cruz’s voters are far more in his wheelhouse anyway. As much as his own colleagues have badmouthed Cruz, it’s not like he owes them any favors.
They’re not the same, but they’re more similar than Rubio or Bush’s followers.
I think there is too much bad blood between Trump and Cruz to make a deal, and I believe Cruz does not think Trump can win the election against Hillary as Rubio probably can to fulfill the promise.
Dangit, Mike…
Well, I still think Cruz and Trump are very different. To swap between the two seems irrational.