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Trump Takes SC, Rubio Second, Cruz a Close Third
With 99.8 percent of the South Carolina vote counted (as of 11pm ET), the GOP primary now looks like a three-man race:
| Trump | 32.5% |
| Rubio | 22.5% |
| Cruz | 22.3% |
| Bush | 7.8% |
| Kasich | 7.6% |
| Carson | 7.2% |
Not a good outcome at all for Cruz. He needed to finish at least a strong second.
Nonetheless, Rubio has no chance. The nomination is Trump’s to lose.
Ok, I’m officially tired of Trump and tired of Trumpers. I know they’re (justifiably) angry, but Trump is boorish, he’s interested only in Trump (not you), and he’s neither an economic nor social conservative.
But I also believe that we’re here, in this position today, because the republican “leaders” have tried and tried again to cram amnesty down the throats of a population that has been asking for years that their laws be enforced. (edit:) Trump is just exploiting this.
As a non-Christian, what type of evangelical votes for trump? I will hang up and listen
Disappointed, but not shocked. Respectfully disagree with Brother LaRoche. Cruz and his PAC’s spent half as much as Rubio, had no meaningful endorsements, and finished a close 3rd. Not great, but not bad.
However if someone has every endorsement in the state and spends that much money to get his butt kicked by a real estate agent with $0 PAC funds how does that get positive spin?
It’s from January 19, but still, the analysis seems right. Stanford Political Journal — Donald Trump Will Not Win the Nomination.
The fed up kind. It’s not cognitive dissonance. It’s a statement of their trust in “Name Brand Conservative” politicians (hint: zip, nada, none, shot). The rebellion lane, if you want to call it that, encompasses Trump, Cruz, and Carson. That’s, what, 67% of the vote? That’s why the assumption that if it’s down to Trump and Rubio, then all of support of other candidates voters goes to Rubio is delusional. No one is going to buy Rubio as a revolt candidate. By week’s end, the establishment itself will brand him as the face of the establishment.
Has there ever been a candidate that won 2/3 of the first states and not gone on to the nomination.
Please excuse me while I call my Ammo supplier.
Either Cruz or Rubio will become the primary challenger to a Trump depending on where Bush, Carson and Kasich supporters go. I don’t believe they will break evenly – if they do Trump wins because I don’t see either Rubio or Cruz dropping out if they are neck and neck
Nope, which Coulter was excitedly tweeting, to which Jonah Goldberg replied (paraphrasing), “Yeah, but this election is different”.
Check out the net negatives. Only three of this year’s candidates fall on the positive side. Care to guess? Hint: It’s not Trump (net -30%). SPOILER:
——————————————
SPOILER: Sanders and Kasich are both +5%; Rubio is +1%
Felony is -11%
I’m thinkin’ a Rubio/Kasich ticket, but that’s just me. And, yes, all I care about at this point is winning.
If Rubio/Kasich = Winning. Uuuggghhh
“I’m not voting because I like this guy but because I hate the other guy” tickets don’t win. All you’ll have to hope for is the possibility that the Bernie voters stay home too, and it’s a race for which side is less enthusiastic.
I think Douglas has this correct.
Politico calls this a crushing defeat. Math? How do it werk?
I like Rubio. I don’t entirely trust him, and I think he has the potential to choke, but I like him and I think that’s what his net positive polling indicates.
If Americans decide they like Bernie more?? There’s no saving us anyway.
If we can get Rubio over the finish line, that’s when the real work begins of influencing imperfect politicians to do the right thing.
Did you see their “Rubio = Romney 2.0” thing? That’s exactly what the Democrats are gonna use, so you might as well get used to it.
Cruz and Rubio need to do a deal. If the field is narrow enough, Trump loses.
The Republic needs it.
I suggest Rubio offers the SCOTUS nomination to Cruz. Both men should take that deal.
My thoughts exactly. It’s predicated on Republicans not folding and being able to fight the media narrative on “obstructing” Obama’s nominee, though. But, I believe Cruz would make a much better justice than president, and he’s unlikely to win the general anyway.
This is the most encouraging thing I’ve read in a long time, although it is old… But it does support the idea that what we really need to observe is whether Trump outperforms or underperforms projections. So far, he has underperformed in every primary to date.
He did it with two maybe three guys dragging him down. Who has had as much money spent against him as Rubio?
Rubio has been fighting off everyone including the midget governors. If those guys weren’t in the race Rubio may have beaten Trump, or at least it would have been much closer.
Rubio cannot nominate Cruz to SCOTUS since apparently Cruz doesn’t speak Spanish. That isn’t going to work after we open the borders and have to push 2 for English.
Well, she said that Rubio/Kasich are net positive, which implies that people would be voting because they like the candidates, and because they hate the other guy. I think that is a decent strategy, though I would not like Kasich as Veep.
I’ve been trying to picture the upcoming debates between Trump and Sanders. Can Trump convince the American public that Sanders’ tax increases will not be worth the value of his giveaways? Let us hope.
Don’t shoot the messenger.
I’m not crazy about the idea either, but if he helps bring Ohio??? Whaddya gonna do?
VP is somewhat irrelevant, and Kasich in the senate wouldn’t be such a terrible thing. I think a Rubio presidency could help restore some sanity to this country after 8 years of the most polarizing administration in history. If he stays off of late night television, stays respectful even to the other side, and ignores the media, I think it could be extremely good for this country, apart from the SC nominees.
Yeah, and see my comment #26. I’m not crazy about Kasich, but if that was the ticket I would happily vote. Of course, VP is almost always a surprise. Heck, it could even be Walker. :) Why else did he drop out so early?
Not John Kasich. I want to slit my wrist every time I hear Kasich speak. At least with Trump we’ll get amused as we’re hurling ourselves off the cliff.
Right. I would have hope for the country if he won. However, I understand the concerns of the anti-Rubio crowd (less so the pro-Trump people). I’ve long said Rubio doesn’t seem to be a fully formed conservative, and he would likely disappoint those of us who have a sense of urgency about the reforms needed to save the Republic.
However, the (Democrat) alternatives are much, much worse, in my opinion.
That supposes that Cruz always gets the majority of the Evangelical vote. And that vote is split. That probably changes things a lot.
Also, Trump brings in Democrats, so his level of support goes up.
I’d like to see the analysis that same chart was started from today.
Most analysis I’ve seen shows it is only impossible for Cruz to win unless he can expand outside his narrow Evangelical appeal.