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Trump Takes SC, Rubio Second, Cruz a Close Third
With 99.8 percent of the South Carolina vote counted (as of 11pm ET), the GOP primary now looks like a three-man race:
| Trump | 32.5% |
| Rubio | 22.5% |
| Cruz | 22.3% |
| Bush | 7.8% |
| Kasich | 7.6% |
| Carson | 7.2% |
Western, I love you and all you stand for, but Rubio+ Kasich?
Very Interesting. Thank you for linking.
If winning is what you want, why not vote for Hillary?
The betting markets do not agree with you.
I don’t think the effect of a VP carrying his home state if it wouldn’t other wise have gone that way is a real thing.
Put Kasich out to pasture.
Beating Felony (or Bernie) is why I want to win. The Left is destroying us. I’ll take anyone who can stop them, up to, but maybe not including Trump. He’s really a Democrat with nationalist rhetoric.
I agree. With all of that Bush money going after Rubio it’s a wonder he hasn’t tanked. I thought he might, after New Hampshire.
Trump will find something, though, so far he’s only gone after Marco for being sweaty, so it’s probably along those lines.
Cruz, has just as bad a record on Amnesty as Marco, that is why that attack fails. I know his supporters don’t think so, but they are too biased about it. They spent months obsessing over the gang of 8.
So does Trump, but record seems not to matter for Trump. People have watched him fire people for over a decade… it’s hard for them not think he’s their buddy I guess.
I’d like to see the break down of Trump’s support by those who watched his show. But I bet many of his supporters were regular watchers. So nothing bad Trump says matters, they feel like they know who he really is no matter what he says.
And actually Ivannka is very impressive!
Also, how much good press is Trump going to get when Ivannka’s baby is born in a few weeks? Probably right before Super Tuesday…
Oh man, there really is not much hope of beating that. Ug.
“…Cruz won’t win a single county, even a small one. Rubio wins most populous counties. Devastating for Cruz.” — Ellen L. Carmichael, former presidential campaign
Yeah, because it would be completely fatal if a Republican didn’t carry the liberal urban areas of every state. (Most populous counties: Los Angeles County, Cook County, etc.)
What are they saying? Out of curiosity…
In SC, Cruz’s + Rubio’s + Bush’s voters = ~52%, to Trump’s 33%.
It’s bloody time to cut a deal.
Truly, the Party of Stupid.
I am very happy with these results. It demonstrates what I have been saying for the past 2 years: the GOP is playing with fire by trying to appeal to the bottom quarter of the IQ distribution.
A saga which begun 8 years ago with an ignorant reality TV show star, Sarah Palin, had nowhere else to end up with other than the triumph of another ignorant reality TV show star.
I’m very very happy. When Clinton wins the most massive landslide in American presidential history in November, maybe maybe, the GOP will finally decide to part ways with the monstrosity of “conservative movement” it has created.
And then the “dey took my jerb!”, “we’re all gonna die from ebola!”, “we need strong leadership!” crowd can find a home in some other party. Either that, or the GOP will double down on the stupid (which given their history, is the unfortunately likely outcome)
Work the odds.
If Cruz and Rubio reach an arrangement, it is >80% likely that the person who advances beats Trump, and at least 50% likely that he goes on to win POTUS.
Rubio is a better bet in the general. He just is. I like Cruz better, but I see why he bugs people.
Rubio’s biggest question mark: is he a real conservative? Promising a Cruz SCOTUS appointment answers that one. Pick the man who clearly is NOT swayed by standard DC magic.
Do the deal. PLEASE.
That’s kind of interesting. I don’t know how I was exposed to it, but I watched some small amount of the show (less than one full episode). All I thought to myself is “this man is utterly disgusting.” I agree with a previous commenter who marvels that Trump can get even a single Evangelical Christian vote. My only guess is that these are people who “self-identify” but are not practicing Christians. As Delingpole’s guest (who was extremely wrong in most of his other analyses but correct on this one) said a few weeks ago, Trump embodies virtually everything that social conservatives strive to avoid. That is at least partially why I say his hard-ceiling means that he could not possibly do anything in a general except lose in the world’s biggest landslide. Even though plenty of “moderates” and “independents” swung for the snake-oil of Obama, perhaps blinded by the positive spin he put on pure negativity, I cannot imagine any of those same people buying Trump’s “proud to be an a**hole” routine.
Mike Murphy’s last sigh.
Interesting that it indicates it may be premature to talk of Cruz or Rubio dropping out.
EDs & all,
Did somebody say 3 man race?
Regards,
Jim
Unfortunately, Rubio made a implicit promise to his constituents on immigration that he failed to keep. How would Cruz regard a Rubio promise to put him on the Supreme Court?
Oh spot on!
When, I ask, WHEN are the GOP gonna realise that chronic unemployment, health pandemics and weak leadership are the REAL vote-winners?!
Unfortunately, there’s a major flaw in this idea: anyone whose ego is big enough to think they should be president (and especially if they have yet to serve a single term in statewide office) has an ego which is too big to ever consider withdrawing in favor of a lesser candidate.
I find it hard to put much faith in that analysis. The author assumes that current levels of support will stay generally static.
However, history has shown that once a strong frontrunner (or two) emerges, many people seem to gravitate toward that person(s) – perhaps simple attraction to a winner, perhaps for the sake of unity, perhaps just due to media attention. Either way, I doubt the distribution of Trump/conservative/establishment voters will remain static from now through April.
I agree that it’s unlikely that Cruz would be interested before it became clear that he was going to lose the primary, which should take a couple of weeks if things head in that direction. Super Tuesday is his chance to run up a delegate count and to discover if he can win in a state that Huckabee/ Santorum could not (aside from Texas). If he does poorly then, I could imagine him being more interested in a deal.
If, as I suspect, there is no deal, iWe doesn’t like my answer for why that might be. I wonder if others have their own reasons.
Cruz took a shot to the solar plexus tonight – if he couldn’t do better than 22% in a state tailor-made for his candidacy he’s smart enough to realize he’s not going to win. He will go through the motions for his supporters in the SEC primary but he’s probably willing to make a deal as described above. The underplayed issue that killed him was Huckabee’s commercials pointing out to evangelicals that he talked the talk but has not tithed to his church per his tax return info.
Rubio also got screwed by the Pope’s inexcusable intervention in the election on behalf of Trump in the last two days, stepping on Rubio’s momentum from the Haley endorsement. If that had been the focus of the media rather than elite lectures on immigration he might have closed with Trump rather than ending up 10 points behind.
A bit harsh. But I actually think considering the Democrats we have the upper quarter of the lower half of the IQ distribution. They keep voting Democrat even though life gets worse for them, they aren’t even smart enough to get mad. That does make them easier to control however.
Oh the “conservatives” have no monopoly on low IQ voters. No question there. But this isn’t much of an argument, now is it.
The problem is that “conservatism” has simply become a movement comprised mostly, if not entirely, or ignorant low-IQ voters.
But as I said, this is about the best outcome I could have hoped for. Then again, I see ignorant people who get scared of their own shadow as being a bigger threat to this country than anything else, so I’ll understand if you don’t share my feelings.
I think Rubio is fully formed in the Reagan mold of conservatism, but not in the recent form of Conservatism, which seems to include yelling insults as proof of membership.
Oh you just wait on all those great jerbs that are going to be created once The Donald goes on economic warfare against Mexico and China. You just wait for the money to roll in. (although I suspect Ricochet might have to shut down once the price of computers jumps to $5,000 for a lap top as a result. But hey, Jerbs!)
You just wait till you get a real “strong leader” in the White House. A strong leader, like our pal, Vlad.
As for health pandemics, I assume that you, just like me, survived the latest ebola pandemic just fine, despite the horrible treachery, lying and criminal behavior of this monstrously irresponsible president in not shutting down world travel.
LOL. Its like, you people live on another planet.
I do see it. In fact, the definition has morphed so much I doubt there are two people who know what the word means. It is certainly not the nice smart guy that Reagan was.
To win an election you must offer honey or sugar with the hard stuff. Straight up hard stuff doesn’t sell.
We have to be able to see the President’s face on our TV and hear his voice for 8 years. And if you put up someone who makes even people who agree with them switch channels, he isn’t going to win.
Trump though, he is breaking rules. I can’t watch his shows, but millions do. So what do I know? I do not see the appeal.
Go home, Mike Murphy. You’re drunk.
English and Irish markets have Trump low fifty-ish and Rubio low forty-ish with more movement towards convergence than otherwise.
Predictit has the two of them sharing more-or-less equally about 92% of its reliable inefficient market of 112%. Predictit is more erratic, impulsive and incoherent than Andrew Sullivan ever was.
What exactly are the criteria of a “real conservative” for all those people who seem to doubt Marco? Cause I can’t tell any more. Is it just immigration, because that’s all it seems to be.