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Iowa Predictions: For the Record
I just want it on the record.
I think Trump is going to get creamed. He has no ground game in Iowa. His lead poll captain thinks 9/11 was an inside job. He is too cheap to give said poll captain $500 to rent a hall. Iowa is a ground game state that requires an infrastructure. Trump doesn’t think he needs an infrastructure! He can win on sheer guts alone!
Oh, the polls say he’s in the lead, eh? These, the same polls that said Mitt Romney was neck-and-neck with Obama? The same polls that said that the Georgia governor was so unpopular in 2014 that he was going to sink the sitting senator with him? How did that turn out? The same polls that said McConnell was going to lose in Kentucky? He carried that state by 17 points!
I’m no expert in polling. My father is, though. Taught it in university for twenty years. A good, solid poll needs at least a thousand respondents. Most polls have half that, and +/- 3.5 is a 7-point swing. With fewer than 300, polls start getting +/- ratios of 5. That’s a ten-point swing!
My gut feeling is that come Tuesday morning, we’re going to have a bunch of pundits standing around talking about his dramatic loss and how no one could have seen it coming.
But I saw it coming, so nyah.
And if he wins? Well, I’m sure I’ll come up with something appropriate.
What’s everyone else’s prediction?
Published in Elections, General, Politics
So no one knows the answer to this? Does that mean the media accepted from Cruz propaganda?
Here is Red State with an analysis of Iowa Turnout machines. There analysis seems to match my own.
http://www.redstate.com/2016/01/28/iowa-voter-registration-data-point-ted-cruz-victory-iowa/
I cant stand some of the polls being cited on Realclear Politics. 266 respondents and a 12 candidate race. That has like a 10 point margin of error. Its useless.
The money shot from the Red State Analysis.
“The polls are all over the place in Iowa. But some things are fixed. As Iowa radio talker and Ted Cruz supporter Steve Deace has noted, the polls giving Trump the largest leads are based turnout models that have 300K Iowans attending a caucus. This would translate into close to 200,000 Republicans, or, to put it in perspective you would have more people voting in the GOP caucus as there were votes cast in the Senate primary in 2014 by both parties.”
Emphasis added by me.
Nice, but it needs a thought bubble that says, “how stupid are Iowans”. ;) Looking back, I had my numbers wrong. 20% of registered Republicans caucus in Iowa. The 5% number is the percentage who caucus for any party out of Iowa’s total population. I’ll fix it.
You mean like this:
Really it should be a speech bubble, since he has uttered those words – with strong emphasis – to an Iowan audience.
I wonder how they will answer the question ultimately…
NRO speculates about the Non-existing machine.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/430461/donald-trumps-iowa-turnout-risks