Tag: Iowa Caucuses

State of the Union, Pelosi ripping up the speech, the Senate impeachment vote, and the ongoing incompetence of Iowa Democrats. We’ve got it all for you today on Wednesday’s Three Martini Lunch. Join Jim and Greg as they applaud the amazing number of record-low unemployment statistics cited by President Trump in his State of the Union address Tuesday night. They’re also big fans of conservative policy ideas espoused in the speech and note the impressive guests Trump invited and highlighted in his address. In contrast, they also assess House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ripping up her copy of the speech right after Trump finished and what is says about Democrats nine months before Election Day. Finally, they have plenty more to say as Iowa Democrats release more than two-thirds of the caucus results but aren’t sure when or if the rest of the votes will be announced.

Is it really that hard to find out who won? Grab a stool as Jim and Greg unload on the Iowa Democratic Party for insisting on a maddeningly convoluted process and failing to ensure that the technology used to transmit results was actually working.  As a result, by midday Tuesday, no one knew who won or what the delegate totals look like.  After hammering the Democrats for the lousy process and general incompetence, they explain how the Republican caucuses look clear and simple by comparison while noting that President Trump’s GOP challengers are barely even noticeable.  Finally, with conspiracy theories already flying about how Democrats are out to deny Bernie or protect Biden or that the failed app may have artificially boosted Pete Buttigieg, Jim and Greg fear Iowa’s debacle will further erode confidence that election results can be taken at face value.

In Iowa, Candidates Claim Participation Credit


If no one wins, everyone wins. Wait, what?

In lieu of actual timely caucus results in Iowa, many top Democrat presidential candidates claimed credit for their performance without knowing what it actually was.  Mayor Pete: “By all indications, we are going on to New Hampshire victorious.” Amy Klobuchar “We are punching above our weight.” Bernie Sanders: “when those results are announced, I have a good feeling we’re going to be doing very, very well here in Iowa.”

Major Garrett on CBS News Live pointed out the incredible failure of the Iowa Democrat Party to count votes and communicate the tally to the public: “This is political malpractice.”  Flummoxed, Garrett envisioned a Republican attack ad where Republicans would say: Democrats can’t even count votes in Iowa, why would you trust them with your healthcare?

With impeachment, the Iowa Caucuses, the State of the Union, and a Democratic debate on tap this week, grab a stool and join us for the fun. Today, Jim and Greg quickly sum up the Super Bowl and then dive into three crazy martinis. First, with closing arguments coming today in the impeachment trail of President Trump, they groan as reports emerge that House Democrats may be poised to pursue another impeachment effort this year depending upon what type of testimony they might get from John Bolton. They also point out that Andrew Yang might have the best political instincts in the Democratic presidential field after admitting he’d seriously consider pardoning Trump if that were ever an issue. And they have fun with reports that former Secretary of State John Kerry was overheard discussing what it would take for him to mount a serious candidacy at this point.

Nothing but crazy martinis today and the last one is a lot of fun!  Join Jim and Greg today as they try to understand how bumbling figures like Lev Parnas ended up as Rudy Giuliani’s key operatives in Ukraine.  They also shake their heads as Iowa Democrats plan to release three separate results from the caucuses next month, possibly giving multiple candidates the chance to claim victory. And they examine West Virginia’s offer for second amendment friendly counties in Virginia to switch states, leading Jim and Greg to wonder how the map would look if counties could jump to other states they find more ideologically similar.

Farewell, Spartacus: Where the Dem Race Stands Now


After months of barely hanging on, Sen. Cory Booker (NJ) has finally suspended his campaign to become the Democratic presidential nominee.

“It was a difficult decision to make, but I got in this race to win, and I’ve always said I wouldn’t continue if there was no longer a path to victory,” Booker said in an email to supporters.

In a tweet, Booker added: “To my team, supporters, and everyone who gave me a shot—thank you. I am so proud of what we built, and I feel nothing but faith in what we can accomplish together.”

Immigration Is Not a Deal Breaker for Rubio


Sen. Marco Rubio’s involvement in the Gang of Eight attempt to pass comprehensive immigration reform has been one of his campaign’s biggest stumbling blocks. This, and and his refusal to disavow some form of “amnesty,” has left him vulnerable and at odds with the base. The only way for Rubio to win the nomination — so the theory goes — is to take a hardline on immigration.

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And the winner of the award for the Most Deranged Performance by a Trump Supporting Blogger goes to … Conservative Treehouse The loons on the far right, who actually believe the larger U.S. electorate will vote for a smarmy preacher who wraps himself in carefully interpreted pages of the constitution and calls upon the body of […]

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Everyone Won, Everyone Lost


“This is the only Iowa caucus analysis you’ll ever need,” writes Paul Waldman in The Week:

Democratic story #1: Everybody wins. Hillary Clinton was the clear winner. … Clinton mobilized her formidable ground operation … doing what she was unable to do eight years ago. … by avoiding [losing], she won. … Bernie Sanders was the clear winner. A year ago he trailed Clinton by 50 points in Iowa, but he generated extraordinary enthusiasm …

My Iowa Poll Methodology


Albia1So, sort of feels like the 300,000-odd folks who are apt to caucus in Iowa tomorrow hold the fate of seven billion people in their hands, doesn’t it?

Come on, Iowa, don’t blow this!

I figure this is one of those rare days when it makes perfect sense for me to spend the whole day thinking about Iowan politics. After all, tomorrow we’ll know: Has our country formally gone insane? Or maybe everyone’s just been bored and yanking our chain? Is Ann Selzer, the best pollster in the world, going to emerge from this with her reputation unscathed?

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In 1937 President Roosevelt’s Supreme Court packing plan was unpopular in Texas. In a special election for the 10th Congressional district that year eight of the nine candidates in the Democratic primary supported the plan tepidly, -or downright opposed it. The ninth candidate saw an opportunity. Lyndon Johnson made support for FDR’s plan his signature […]

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Iowa Predictions: For the Record


IowaI just want it on the record.

I think Trump is going to get creamed. He has no ground game in Iowa. His lead poll captain thinks 9/11 was an inside job. He is too cheap to give said poll captain $500 to rent a hall. Iowa is a ground game state that requires an infrastructure. Trump doesn’t think he needs an infrastructure! He can win on sheer guts alone!

Oh, the polls say he’s in the lead, eh? These, the same polls that said Mitt Romney was neck-and-neck with Obama? The same polls that said that the Georgia governor was so unpopular in 2014 that he was going to sink the sitting senator with him? How did that turn out? The same polls that said McConnell was going to lose in Kentucky? He carried that state by 17 points!

Why Democrats Could Win in 2016


Sen. Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton at Democratic presidential debate in Las Vegas, October 2015. Joseph Sohm / Shutterstock.com

With the hotly contested Iowa primaries only two weeks away, the level of political polarization is higher than it’s been in decades. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are veering sharply to the populist left as they each champion a brand of democratic socialism. On the Republican side, the rise of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz reveals the rise of a muscular conservatism that appeals to the far right. By November, this political divide will become more pronounced. No one will be able to say, to quote George Wallace’s oft-repeated remark, that there is not a “dime’s worth of difference” between the two parties.

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Every night, cable news shows offer countless polls that attempt to forecast the winner of this year’s presidential election. The polls are surveys of real people, ranging from likely voters, to adults, to people who may or may not stand in the cold for hours to caucus in Iowa. Then the news programs will use […]

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Ted Cruz has surged into the lead in a poll of likely caucus-goers released today by Monmouth University. The Hill reports: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has surpassed Donald Trump and Ben Carson in Iowa, a new poll finds, giving the Texas Republican his first lead of the cycle in an early voting state. Preview Open

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