Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
The Battle for Bakhmut
The battle for Bakhmut has lasted for about nine months. It is the bloodiest and most intense fight in Europe since WWII. Advances and retreats are measured in two to six kilometers increments.
Thousands of Russian and Ukrainian forces have been killed in this battle as Russian forces try to encircle the city, and Ukrainian forces try to prevent the taking of the city.
Once again, the following video shows the grunts in the field. I’m not interested in the policy wonk views in the West, nor the Kremlin’s perpetual aggrievement of losing the old Soviet Empire. This fight has become like WWI trench warfare with newer and more deadly weapons.
My opinion is that this war is not going to end anytime soon. Regardless of the past history between Russia and Ukraine, it should be obvious that Ukrainians are fighting for hearth and home.
.
Published in Military
See comment #354.
Its too soon to tell whether its ‘rope-a-dope’ (and if so, on which side? Russia has lost more, but they can arguably afford to lose more).
According to …?
The Wagner Group is holding the inner city, from ISW, May 21:
Wagner Group mercenaries likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut City while Ukrainian forces are continuing to prioritize counterattacks on Bakhmut’s outskirts. Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces control an “insignificant” part of southwestern Bakhmut City around the T0504 highway — a tacit acknowledgement that Russian forces have secured the rest of western and northwestern Bakhmut, if not all of it.
These officials’ statements indicate that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the remaining areas in Bakhmut except those adjacent to the two highways into the city. Geolocated footage published on May 21 showed Wagner forces raising Russian and Wagner flags over a residential building in westernmost Bakhmut. The Wagner Group’s likely capture of the last remaining small area of western Bakhmut does not impact ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks north or south of Bakhmut, nor does it impact Ukrainian control over the ground lines of communications (GLOCs) around Bakhmut that exhausted Wagner forces would need to reach in order to conduct further offensive operations.
Russian forces will likely need additional reinforcements to hold Bakhmut City and its flanks at the expense of operations in other directions. ISW has observed artillery units of the 132nd Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (which was previously observed in the Avdiivka area) operating in the Bakhmut direction.
Its true about Russia and rail lines, but I’m not sure how useful it would be for them in this context (my understanding is that Bakhmut is oriented towards connecting east and west Ukraine, which is quite different from rail lines originating from Russia and crossing thru strongly held territory on the way to the front lines).
In any event, I think we’ll find out just how important-or not-Bakhmut is during the Summer fighting season.
Most sources, backed up by common sense; invaders are at a natural disadvantage against entrenched positions. I also suspect if Russia were able to pull off this type of operation with fewer losses than the defenders, they wouldn’t have had as much trouble as they’ve been having, and if Ukraine were performing that badly, they probably couldn’t have lasted this long (military equipment is worthless if there aren’t enough people who can use it). But, I cannot offer absolute proof that this is the case.
Here’s a map of the rail system there:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/84/DZD.svg
Bakhmut (Artemosk) has two stations (Artemosk 1 and Artemosk II) and seems to be one of the junctions between North-South [important for moving troops down to strengthen the land bridge) and East-West [moving them towards to the rest of Ukraine].
Not the ONLY such junction, but one such.
I’m sure that’s true.
There’s no denying the intuitive appeal of this claim. Here’s some “it ain’t necessarily so” type material for your consideration, however:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/03/ukraine-is-lying-about-casualty-ratios-to-justify-holding-of-bakhmut.html
I strongly doubt the numbers are 7:1 in any sides favor, but I think if the casualty numbers were as optimistic for Russia as they claim, Russia would not need to risk the upheaval of their recent conscription efforts, and if the losses for Ukraine were as lopsided as they believe plausible, they would not be able to hold such a long defensive line, much less regain the amount of territory they did several months ago. Their analysis simply doesn’t reflect any policies or facts on the ground discernible from afar (nor does a 7:1 ratio in favor of Ukraine). As for the 10:1 artillery claim, factors such as inferior product, poor upkeep through corruption or negligence, lousy intelligence, and misguided allocation would cut into that, assuming the numbers are even accurate.
Much of the propaganda can be reasonably filtered simply by looking at the information conceded by both sides (which usually, but not always, takes place well after the fact), which for a long time hasn’t presented anything other than a virtual stalemate with periods of momentum for each side.
What measures do you think the U.S. and EU should take to help Ukraine reverse any losses in Bakhmut?
Agree. This is a slow grind kind of war. Its current dynamics more closely resemble the beginning of a chess game (where much of the work is done by slow-moving pawns), rather than the middle. The end stage seems quite far away at the moment, unfortunately.
Given that the U.S./NATO and Ukraine have determined that Bakhmut is of little to no strategic importance, I should think that they themselves would consider devoting even more Western treasure and Ukrainian blood to the task of retaking it to be an irresponsible as well as unconscionable folly.
I must admit my research is more confusing then ever on this, but it does line up. It seems like from a strategic standpoint Bakhmut may be much more important for the Russians because of the North-South line then it is for moving from east to west. It seems like Bakhmut helps anchor the Russian supply lines in the East. It is difficult to say there is a lot of propaganda around this one.
That is rapidly the point I think I am coming too.
My research so far hasn’t generated much illumination on the subject. I think in the end I am going to have to agree with @lowtech-redneck we’ll know how strategically significant it is when the fighting season kicks off. Here is what I have been able to piece together from various sources:
That is about it. I think this is a definite setback for Ukraine and a definite victory for Russia. Ukraine did manage to damage Wagner to a point where it will be out of the fight for two months at least, that takes an important piece off the board for Russia if Ukraine can capitalize. It will be interesting to see if the replacement forces for Wagner can hold onto the city. I have seen analysis both ways on this one, I think the best analysis which is supported by the facts is that Bakhmut is defensible and it will be difficult for the Ukrainians to take it back.
I can see why Bakhmut — the Russians actually still use the Stalinist name for the city — is important to Putin.
After all, it’s one thing to illegally annex land you have occupied. But annexing territories you don’t control is not just illegal but absurd.
The conflicting messages [from the two militaries] may indicate that there are a number of things happening simultaneously and the battle for the city may not be over but rather entering a new phase, said Neil Melvin, the director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, or RUSI, a London-based think tank.
Wagner forces have concentrated in the central area of the city and ceded control of the flanks to reinforced troops from the regular Russian army in recent weeks, Melvin told NBC News, giving the mercenary fighters sufficient strength to seize basically all of the city.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military appears to have withdrawn from its final positions in the center and concentrated on the flanks to the north and south, where it recently began pushing back Russian troops.
It now seems to be aiming to surround the city, which could allow it to cut off and then destroy the Wagner forces in the center, Melvin added.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-claims-bakhmut-victory-ukraine-encircle-troops-wagner-putin-rcna85509
Again, let’s remember this is all taking place deep inside territory Putin declared annexed last year.
It reminds me of historical battles in which, say, the left flanks of both armies advanced, while the right flanks retreated, so that the two armies ended up pinheeling 180° and facing back the way they came. Of course, here we see Wagner troops advancing and Russian troops retreating at the same time.
The difference between the two is that the Russians became murderers and rapists by the way they carried on the war; while the Wagner troops were already murderers and rapists before they joined.
Latest:
I am not aware that the Ukrainians have determined that. The Battle of Bakhmut is still going on, even though the Russians have occupied all the buildings.