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Are Trump Supporters Ready for Change?
Most food packages come with one of two expiration dates. One says “best if used by” a date after which the quality slowly declines. The second one says “use by” or “expires by,” after which the product may be hazardous to your health.
It appears that Donald Trump may have hit his expiration date. It is hazardous for Republicans to nominate him for another White House run.
A couple of days ago, this intrepid opinion journalist, an admitted GOP partisan, suggested it was time for a “family discussion” following the awful 2022 elections. It received twice the number of hits than my usual posts.
Since then, real journalists, such as Salena Zito (New York Post, Washington Examiner, etc.), have done the real work of talking to rank-and-file voters and grassroots party leaders, especially in her home state of Pennsylvania. The Keystone State was ground zero for much of the disaster that the GOP experienced on Tuesday and now politically resembles Hiroshima after August 9, 1945.
Hearing his bragging and big talk in the final days before the election, voters across the US feared certain Trump-backed candidates would be beholden to him or continue his rhetoric of election denial and either voted Democratic or left the top of the ticket blank despite their dislike of President Biden.
Another round of Trumpism was a bridge too far for them. They were exhausted.
JD Vance, who won a US Senate seat in Ohio, is the only high-profile Trump-backed candidate who prevailed Tuesday night. Meanwhile, Trump’s choice of candidates for Senate in Georgia, Arizona, and New Hampshire could cost the Republicans control of the upper chamber of Congress, which they were expected to clinch. Even his gubernatorial pick in Michigan, Tudor Dixon, lost to incumbent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, who was unpopular for her lockdown policies during the pandemic, which was among the strictest in the US.
Trump’s gubernatorial pick in Michigan, Tudor Dixon, lost to incumbent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, who was unpopular for her lockdown policies during the pandemic. (AP Photo)
It all adds up to a disaster for Trump. A Pennsylvania father of two grown men of voting age told me all three of them are done with him after years of loyal support.
“Trump needs to disappear,” said the voter, who asked not to be named. “He got us Oz over McCormick in the primary who would have won by at least by five points. In fact, most of the failures in last night’s midterms tie back to Trump.”
The communications professional said he still liked Trump’s policies and has long managed to overlook his crassness. “Then he made the DeSantis comment and we are all done in our family with him. It is becoming very clear it’s about Trump first, not the conservative movement.”
A couple of very smart Pennsylvania political operatives I know and respect, Matt Brouillette and Josh Novotny, among others, weighed in with the Philadelphia Inquirer this week.
“If anything should be taken away from this election, it’s that we should be over Trump. If you’re not a Never Trumper yet, you should be an Over-Trumper now,” said Matthew Brouillette, the head of Commonwealth Partners, an influential conservative group in the state. “He had his moment in the sun for four years, and it’s time for him to retire from politics.”
Josh Novotney, a Republican operative in Philadelphia, said there’s been widespread blame on Trump within GOP circles after the party lost marquee races for governor and U.S. Senate, all three of the state’s competitive U.S. House races, and possibly the state House.
Trump’s presence, several Republican leaders said, continues to motivate Democrats, and his endorsements have elevated flawed candidates who fit his personal piques.
“I’ve even heard in very Trump parts of the city and the state that he is an albatross, he is hurting us, and he needs to go,” Novotney said. “We can’t win races if he continues to be the head of the party.”
The party’s national committeeman in Pennsylvania, Andy Reilly, said Trump’s late rally in Westmoreland County and hints he would soon announce another run for president weren’t helpful.
“His presence, I think, helped the Democrats’ claims about a threat to democracy,” Reilly said, though he argued those claims were overblown. “It was not constructive for the president to be hinting about his announcement.”
All spoke after Sen. Pat Toomey (R., Pa.) on Wednesday night laid his party’s weak midterm showing at Trump’s feet, saying his endorsements led the party to nominate candidates in his own mold — ones who underperformed.
Trump’s penchant for insulting-but-catchy monikers hit a low point before the election when he pegged Florida’s Governor, Ron DeSantis, as “Ron DeSanctimonious,” at his rally in western Pennsylvania. It didn’t play well with many conservative pundits who have largely defended Trump in the past.
Conservative columnist and author Kurt Schlichter also criticized Trump’s latest name-calling. “The biggest favor you can do Donald Trump is to tell him he stepped on his crank yesterday and to stop being undisciplined and saying stupid things,” he tweeted.
More from Business Insider:
Tim Young, a conservative author, radio host, and critic, chimed in as well. “There was no good reason for Trump to attack DeSantis last night,” he tweeted.
“What has Ron DeSantis done to earn Trump’s scorn here right before an election?” tweeted Scott Morefield, a writer for Townhall. “It’s inexcusable and just shows this has always been about him.”
“Needs work,” Ben Domenech, the editor at large for The Spectator and a Fox News contributor, tweeted about the nickname.
“Nothing like trashing a Republican Governor 4 days before Election Day when his name is on the ballot. #team,” wrote Josh Holmes, a Republican strategist who formerly ran Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s campaign.
These are not “Never Trumpers” from The Dispatch, The Bulwark, the Lincoln Project, or the National Review. Far from it.
This isn’t new, by the way. An interesting bipartisan poll conducted by Democrats at Hart Research and Republicans at Public Opinion Strategies for NBC last May was a warning sign that Trump’s appeal among Republicans was waning.
“…a poll released by NBC News/Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies showed that a significant chunk of Republican primary voters actually prefer that someone else would take the reins of leading their party. The survey found that a third (33 percent) of Republican primary voters believe Trump was a good president, but that it’s time for new leaders. An additional 10 percent said Trump was a bad president and it is now time for their party to move on.”
That closely mirrors the poll results I published from Florida the other day, conducted just before the election. That survey showed that 43 percent of voters were “much less likely” to support candidates seen as favoring Trump. Four percent more were somewhat less likely to support Trumpian candidates.
Especially telling were comments yesterday from Virginia’s Lt. Gov., Winsome Sears, a conservative firebrand popular with the rank and file and who campaigned for Trump in 2020.
Virginia’s Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) joined the growing list of Republicans on Thursday who say they won’t support a 2024 presidential run by Donald Trump.
Sears made the comments in a Fox Business interview, where she lauded Trump’s Oval Office accomplishments related to black unemployment, education, and public safety, but said that the results of the 2022 midterm elections indicate that voters “want a different leader.”
“I could not support him. I just couldn’t,” Sears told host Neil Cavuto.
“The voters have spoken, and they’ve said they want a different leader,” Sears, a former US Marine, told Cavuto.
Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) on election night, November 2021.
In all candor, this will not encourage Trump to exit the stage. If anything, it will egg him on. Perhaps more persuasive are the comments made by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a strong supporter and advisor to the former President. The Washington Examiner:
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich said Wednesday that he believes former President Donald Trump may be reconsidering his plans for another presidential run.
Gingrich’s suspicions come after the Republican Party experienced disappointing results in the 2022 midterm elections, with many Trump-endorsed Republican candidates, such as Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz and Michigan gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon, falling short of victory on Tuesday night.
“I mean, just in my own emails today, [with] the number of people who want somebody other than Trump who have decided, literally overnight, that person is going to be DeSantis, he’s going to find it almost impossible to avoid running,” Gingrich told Just the News. “I think Trump’s got to look at the results and be troubled.”
The former Speaker of the House gave this thoughts on former President Donald Trump on Wednesday, Nov. 9, the day after the midterm elections. (File and AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
The former speaker said he knows Trump is a “very, very smart man” who worked “very hard” leading up to the election by attending multiple rallies. However, in light of the outcome of the midterm elections, many Republicans have shifted their focus to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as the front-runner for 2024.
Trump is supposed to announce his 2024 presidential campaign on Tuesday. Of less importance than what Trump thinks is how his ardent supporters are feeling and thinking these days.
Some Trump supporters are buying the spin that the vast majority of candidates Trump endorsed – over 200 – won on Tuesday. But that is weak sauce compared to the flawed candidates his endorsement pushed over the top in GOP primaries and who infamously crashed on election day, even losing to genuinely flawed Democratic candidates like mentally impaired stroke victim John Fetterman and Arizona’s horrifically incompetent Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (that may change, since votes are still being counted there). From Market Watch:
This cycle, Trump did not widely endorse candidates in highly competitive races. Of the 187 congressional candidates he endorsed in the general election, only eight Senate and 16 House districts were rated as lean or tossup by CPR.
Among those 16 House endorsees, only two have so far won election, according to AP race calls: Republicans Anna Paulina Luna in Florida and incumbent Ashley Hinson in Iowa, both of whose races leaned Republican. Eight others lost their elections, six of which were in tossup races and the other two of which leaned Democratic.
Of the remaining six Trump-backed congressional candidates whose races have not yet been called by the AP, only two — Zach Nunn in Iowa and Ryan Zinke in Montana — are currently in the lead. Both seats were rated as lean Republican by CPR.
The other five House candidates endorsed by Trump trail by an average of 10 points, with the furthest behind being Alaska Republican Sarah Palin, who is trailing Peltola by 20 points. That race is likely headed to a ranked-choice second-round tabulation. The closest race is that of five-term Rep. David Schweikert in Arizona, who trails Democrat Jevin Hodge by 2 points.
That means Trump’s general-election endorsement rate in competitive House races this cycle would be, at best, 50%. If all the candidates who are currently leading in their races were to win, that rate would drop to 25%. (Emphasis added)
Another retort from Trump loyalists is that Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) failed to support MAGA candidates or hit their opponents through his independent leadership political action committee, the Senate Leadership Fund. But that is wrong. Conservative Atlanta radio host and blogger Erick Erickson:
Over the past year, Mitch McConnell funded the races of men who had pledged to throw him out of the Republican leader’s slot. Lindsey Graham campaigned with America First MAGA candidates who had used him as a punchline. And Republican donors who hate Trump wrote big checks to help Trump’s candidates get elected.
The only people attacking the GOP from inside the GOP right now are Donald Trump, Liz Cheney, and Adam Kinzinger. The latter two are finished in politics. The former wants back in.
I respect Trump and his supporters. I voted for him twice before and would be willing to do so again as our party’s nominee in 2024. But his strongest supporters need to ponder why Democrats are salivating for him to run again, even more so than them. The reality is there for all to see. It’s time to embrace the late William F. Buckley’s sage advice: vote for the most conservative candidate who can win.
Complaining as many do about Trump, it is essential to remember that many grassroots Republicans take him, his advice, and his endorsements to heart. And Trump-endorsed candidates won a lot of GOP primaries this year. Those votes came from a lot of people. He’s still the 800-pound gorilla within the GOP.
As one blogger opined at Ricochet.com:
There is an expiration date on politicians. This is less so for legislative politicians since they can blend back into the mass group of other legislators, but not so for the executive leaders, and especially the President of the United States or whether one wants to be President. Like it or not, and it may be unfortunate, Donald Trump has passed his expiration. I take no glee in it. I will vote for him again if he wins the primary, but I sure hope he doesn’t.
Trump has earned a moniker of his own: Toxic Trump.
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Perhaps. There is one rather prominent post at present that is not, however.
Just one more narrative served to us that we’re willfully eating and crapping out the other side. Just the latest in a long line. Starting (to pick a point prominent for me) with all the voices telling us to not be so extreeeeme and draconian in the 90’s. Followed by the need for compassionate conservativism. Not to mention the embarrassing record 2012-present from refusing to call Obama racist (or at least racialist) to accepting the array of hoaxes and terms like denier and insurrection not realizing that the terms themselves are a weapon we’re using against ourselves.
Which one? Flicker’s?
No. It starts with a quote from an unnamed “commentator.”
Okay, I’ll bite. Do I look on the main page or the member page?
It is not 2016.
And they are going to get it good and hard.
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.
H. L. Mencken
Just below QOTD.
Ummmm … at best a prediction (w.a.g) or more likely just an opinion, ‘cuz like everyone’s got one of those too.
Oh, yes. I have passed over that.
Any plan for the near future should, in my opinion, have a strategy to earn approximately 50% of voters 30 and younger.
I’ll vote for Trump if he is the Republican nominee.
But he wouldn’t have made the three SCOTUS nominations that he did. I suppose he would have picked Hillary, Barack, and his sister.
True but to overcome the dullard factories that produced these voters, we’d have to do something like offer tickets to Beyonce concerts or something like that.
Exactly the opposite.
But you aren’t the target audience- you need more than Ricochet types to vote for you to win. That is the rub, Trump seems stuck at <47%. That isn’t a roadmap to victory. We need to enlarge the coalition not purify it.
It’s a question for the ages, but it seems “enlarging the coalition” requires compromising core principles.
Also, Trump arguably enlarged the coalition between 2016 and 2020 perhaps more than any other President.
We may have many young people voting Democrat who have been misled by propaganda in all our institutions.We need to convert some of them with actual knowledge to exceed that 47%.
And arguably enlarged their coalition too.
Or just enlarged the fraud. Which they didn’t have fully operating in 2016 because they didn’t think they needed it.
No- he was behind GWB & RR. That is one reason he lost.
Trump1 (63M) Trump2 (74M)
GWB1 (50.4M) GWB2(62M) more total & greater % increase
RR1(44M ). RR2 (54.5M) greater % increase
“Enlarging the coalition” isn’t just – or necessarily even at all – larger total numbers, it was – especially for Trump – about increasing the share of votes from… non-traditional… segments especially “minority” groups that previously avoided Republican candidates.
It’s clear that Trump increased the Republican share of black voters etc, and if Miss College-Educated Suburban White Female went to her fainting couch, maybe that’s HER problem, not Trump’s?
It is definitely Trump’s problem if he can’t get enough votes- and ultimately the country’s problem if we continue to get Democrats running things.
Politicians who don’t get enough votes are known as loser. And only a poor politician blames the voters.
Can you supply a link Flick, I must be blind.
So, if the voter doesn’t like either Dimocrat or Republican candidates and writes in Putin, that’s not the voter’s problem? The fault is the candidates’ because neither of them is more like Putin?
It’s not Trump’s fault Republicans lost. Why are we not investigating where the swing votes came from? nursing homes, homeless folks, drug addicts, why do we let the radical left define our own talking points?
I can’t find it either now.
If you know who wrote it, wouldn’t be hard to find in their profile. Unless it’s been deleted or something.
Always “enlarging,” to pick up hapless votes. That won’t stop the slide into this Marxist claptrap, just enable it. Dems will just cheat and lie more, or import future voters, to get back the votes. I’m done sliding left. at this point, those not in the big tent are Marxists, “useful idiots,” fools, or too picky to be taken seriously. The tent wants freedom. If that isn’t enough, then it isn’t deserved.