There’s No Going Back – Ever

 

We can never go back to the “good old days.” That was a thought that occurred to me today, and I realized how that fact—and I believe it is a fact—defines not only how we see the world, but how we see our political reality. It colors how we see those who agree with us, and those who vehemently disagree with us. I also realized that all the Trump/Never Trump arguments are not really about Trump at all. The people who get stuck on either side of that conflict are struggling with something else entirely. And realizing that truth, with honesty and sincerity, might actually bridge the seemingly insurmountable polarization that has plagued this country, particularly the Conservatives, for years.

Think about it. There is no denying that life today is vastly different from the life we experienced, say, 20 years ago. And many people have a predisposition to living lives that are relatively predictable, familiar, and consistent. When they have occurrences that disrupt that predictability, they can feel beleaguered—life has turned upside down and has let them down in a way, so that they become confused, stressed, and even angry at the new and unanticipated outcomes. They feel betrayed and disappointed, and once they wrestle down these reactions, they are ready to go to war. They can decide to fight for what they once anticipated for their lives, demand that life return to some kind of normalcy, and rebel against those who think they should be prepared to go in a new direction. Even if that direction has some merit, they will reject it because it is not the life that they expected or desired.

I propose to you that this mindset evolves from that sense of life’s betrayal, and Donald Trump has become the scapegoat for those who reject Trump and life’s demands.

Before you reject my proposal, let me describe those who are on the other side of this chasm.

Many of us do prefer to have predictable lives, for one reason or another, but we have learned that life doesn’t acquiesce to our expectations. The best planning in the world can be victim to life’s vagaries, and no matter how strenuously we’ve worked to correct course, life seems determined to design its own path. We learn, either as a child, or sometimes not until we are adults, that rejecting life’s whims doesn’t always work—it smiles at us, even laughs sometimes, at our foolish beliefs that we have the power to change its course. Eventually, we learn how to ride the rapids, tolerate the roller coasters, and even swim with the sharks. Over time we begin to learn how to balance the usual patterns of our lives with the unforeseen events that meet us. If we are wise, we learn that the changes we encounter can even be enjoyable and rewarding, stretch us beyond our understanding or our limitations and expand our possibilities. The patterns we follow allow us to grab hold of the familiar so that we can take a breath and find our footing, but also free us to try something new and creative, ripe with potential.

I propose to you that this mindset characterizes the people, whether reluctantly or with vigor, who support Donald Trump.

*     *     *     *

How can these descriptions of these two groups of folks be helpful? For those of us who hope that one day the disruption among Conservatives can be mended, these factors are important and valuable to understand:

The Trump/Never Trump conflict is much deeper and primal than a fight over one man.

For those who reject Trump-

  • This conflict has to do with the loss and dread that comes with losing the past, either the past of our imagination or the past that truly existed. (In many respects, it doesn’t matter if it’s real or not—we are wedded to it.)
  • It is more comforting to hold onto our memories than to have the uncertainty of creating new ones.
  • They confuse “preferences,” such as decorum and good manners, with “values” such as truth and integrity, and struggle with having to compromise either type.
  • It’s so much easier to create a scapegoat, than to find a way to work with the reality of “what is,” rather than to insist on “what should be.”

For those who accept (however fully or reluctantly) Trump—

  • For our own peace of mind, we benefit from reminding ourselves of the depth of the rejection of Trump by others and what it represents.
  • We can find a way to talk about Conservative values and what they mean to us, and see if the people we support can live those values, and to what degree.
  • We can remember that both sides of this disagreement can be determined to win over the other side, denigrate those who disagree with us, or simply “make them wrong.”
  • Remember that the differences in beliefs are often not “values based”; they are also not fact-based but opinion based. We can accept, therefore, that we are unlikely to change the minds of those who prefer to fight to maintain the past rather than suffer through creating a new future.

For me, I have some empathy for those who desperately hold on to the past. I understood, and at one time even preferred, that outlook on life. It is the outlook with which I was raised.

But I also realized that it limited my own growth and creativity. It was an insular way to live, protecting me from considering other ways to live. It was, in fact, frightening to contemplate new directions and new ideas. Along the way, however, I encountered ideas that challenged me to explore, and people who supported my thinking about other pursuits. I enjoyed the ups and (some of) the downs that greeted me. Not everyone who resists moving forward, however, will be able to do so.

But I hope and pray they will.

Because there is no going back—ever.

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  1. HeavyWater Inactive
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Re Israel–they are not dependent on us; in effect we are partners in the Western world, and they can take care of themselves.

    I get that the point of Israel was for Jews not to have to be dependent on anybody’s good will any more, and that their current situation with the US is from this point of view a bit cognitive dissonancy – but even if you granted that Israel would be just fine without the US’ support their options and choices would be very different (and imo more realistic and sustainable).

    All countries are at least partially dependent on other countries.  The question for Israel is simply whether it wants to be more dependent on the United States, a country with representative government, or dependent on dictatorships.  But Israel is still realistic enough to sense an advantage in having decent relations with Arab dictatorships as they perceive the threat from Iran.

    Similarly for today’s Germany.  Germany being dependent on thug-o-cratic Russia was a bad bet, whereas being dependent on a representative governments like Norway, Canada and the US for energy is a much better position to be in.

    Countries that have representative governments tend to have similar interests to other countries that have representative governments.

    Thug-o-cratic regimes like Russia and Iran often have similar interests as well, at least in the short term.

    There’s just no getting around this issue of “dependency.”  Admit that your country will be dependent, in some respects, on other countries and then prioritize relationships with countries whos interests align with your own.

    Japan and the United States are pretty tight.  Japan’s leadership recently said that they only have one military alliance, one with the United States and they aren’t looking for other alliances.

    Wow.

    Taiwan and the US have a pretty close relationship.  If Taiwan tried to be completely independent from the US and other countries, it would be an invitation for China to attack them.

    Same for Australia and New Zealand.  Small countries, if they have representative governments and sense a threat from a dictatorship, are very likely to pick up the phone and ask the United States for help.

    • #121
  2. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Similarly for today’s Germany. Germany being dependent on thug-o-cratic Russia was a bad bet, whereas being dependent on a representative governments like Norway, Canada and the US for energy is a much better position to be in.

    But inevitably, wrt Canada and the US, it comes with more expensive energy.  It’s a matter of economic and military interests diverging, which is an interesting thing to see play outl

    There’s just no getting around this issue of “dependency.” Admit that your country will be dependent, in some respects, on other countries and then prioritize relationships with countries whos interests align with your own.

    Which countries would you say the US is dependent on?  Economically? Politically or militarily?

    Same for Australia and New Zealand. Small countries, if they have representative governments and sense a threat from a dictatorship, are very likely to pick up the phone and ask the United States for help

    That’s definitely true, and Australia made its choice in the recent US/China dust up.  But Australia’s economic growth over the past three decades (at least) has been overwhelmingly dependent on China’s appetite for minerals and coal.  It’s not always an easy, or obvious, choice.

    • #122
  3. HeavyWater Inactive
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    Zafar (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Similarly for today’s Germany. Germany being dependent on thug-o-cratic Russia was a bad bet, whereas being dependent on a representative governments like Norway, Canada and the US for energy is a much better position to be in.

    But inevitably, wrt Canada and the US, it comes with more expensive energy. It’s a matter of economic and military interests diverging, which is an interesting thing to see play outl

    There’s just no getting around this issue of “dependency.” Admit that your country will be dependent, in some respects, on other countries and then prioritize relationships with countries whos interests align with your own.

    Which countries would you say the US is dependent on? Economically? Politically or militarily?

    I’d be tempted to say Canada and Mexico in the sense that the US is better off with peaceful and prosperous neighbors.  That is a kind of dependency.  But the US is also better off with a peaceful and prosperous Europe and far East.  So, nearly every European nation and also Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand.  

    India is an important country.  If India becomes freer and more prosperous, retaining and strengthening the representative nature of its government, then India-US relations will likely grow stronger.  

    I could also see, if Iran were to overthrow its dictatorship and get a government that is representative, Iran-US relations would be very good.   Iran-Israel relations would be dramatically different if Iran were to overthrow its theocratic regime with a government that was representative.  

    Same for Australia and New Zealand. Small countries, if they have representative governments and sense a threat from a dictatorship, are very likely to pick up the phone and ask the United States for help

    That’s definitely true, and Australia made its choice in the recent US/China dust up. But Australia’s economic growth over the past three decades (at least) has been overwhelmingly dependent on China’s appetite for minerals and coal. It’s not always an easy, or obvious, choice.

    There are economic incentives to buy from whomever is offering the lowest price.  But as the Russia example demonstrates, there is a risk in doing so.  

     

    • #123
  4. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    I’d be tempted to say Canada and Mexico in the sense that the US is better off with peaceful and prosperous neighbors. That is a kind of dependency. But the US is also better off with a peaceful and prosperous Europe and far East. So, nearly every European nation and also Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand.

    India is an important country. If India becomes freer and more prosperous, retaining and strengthening the representative nature of its government, then India-US relations will likely grow stronger.

    I could also see, if Iran were to overthrow its dictatorship and get a government that is representative, Iran-US relations would be very good. Iran-Israel relations would be dramatically different if Iran were to overthrow its theocratic regime with a government that was representative

    You left out a pretty important trade partner:

    File:US trade final-01.svg

    (Hint: China)

    • #124
  5. HeavyWater Inactive
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    Zafar (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    I’d be tempted to say Canada and Mexico in the sense that the US is better off with peaceful and prosperous neighbors. That is a kind of dependency. But the US is also better off with a peaceful and prosperous Europe and far East. So, nearly every European nation and also Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand.

    India is an important country. If India becomes freer and more prosperous, retaining and strengthening the representative nature of its government, then India-US relations will likely grow stronger.

    I could also see, if Iran were to overthrow its dictatorship and get a government that is representative, Iran-US relations would be very good. Iran-Israel relations would be dramatically different if Iran were to overthrow its theocratic regime with a government that was representative

    You left out a pretty important trade partner:

    File:US trade final-01.svg

    (Hint: China)

    Sure.  If we went cold turkey and completely stopped our trade with China, huge economic disruption, for both China and the US.  

    I was just thinking about the state of Delaware, population about 970,000.  

    If Delaware were a country, it would be difficult for it to develop a large enough military to defend itself from a Russia or China.  So, it would make sense to enter into a military alliance with a larger country with a similar political system.  Perhaps New York or Florida.  

    Similarly, one can see how a nation like Latvia, with its small population of about 1.9 million, sees NATO membership is essential for its security, if they want to retain their representative government.  Most of NATO consists of representative governments and as Benjamin Franklin supposedly said, “We must all hang together or we must all hang separately.”  

    Why did Finland ally itself with Nazi Germany?  Because America was still isolationist and the UK did seem powerful enough to deter the Soviet Union. 

    • #125
  6. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):
    I agree that we don’t have to like a candidate to vote for that candidate. But if someone like Trump can’t get it right on an issue like Ukraine, sorry, he just can’t get my vote, even if I have to leave my ballot blank.

    When the Russians seized Crimea, Barry sent blankets and MREs.

    The Donald upgraded that to M2 sniper rifles and Javelins.

    The Russians jumped when Barry was fundamentally transforming the United States of America. They sat on their haunches when Trump was sending mean tweets and weapons systems. They jumped again after Brandon fell upstairs — three times.

    Maybe Trump’s foreign policy chops will improve. I doubt it, but it is better than anything Captain Oblivious or any of the other Democrats will come up with.

    So, maybe all of Trump’s “America First” talk is just rhetoric designed to fool some people into thinking that he isn’t a globalist, or, um an internationalist?

    The reality is that people often do pay attention to what presidents and potential presidential candidates say.

    When the US Congress voted about 40 billion dollars of aid to Ukraine, Trump criticized the vote. Among my 2 Republican US Senators, one voted for aid to Ukraine (Todd Young) and one voted against (Mike Braun).

    Guess which one of these US Senators I will be voting for? Braun isn’t up for re-election until 2024, but I might remember how he voted on an important issue.

    I am not trying to convince anyone here to vote for Biden. I didn’t vote for Biden in 2020. But Biden did request this aid for Ukraine package that was passed by Congress while Trump criticized it.

    If you want “neo-cons” like me to vote Republican for president, maybe its best to nominate people who don’t call Putin “savvy” and “genius” as Putin invades Ukraine. I’ve voted for more Republican candidates in my life time than most people. It’s not hard for someone with an R next to their name to get my vote. But people like Trump, Margorie Taylor Green, Tucker Carlson and Colonel Douglas MacGregor ain’t going to get my vote.

    I prefer the “old” GOP much better.

    Recognizing a “savvy” move doesn’t mean he supports it. In fact, he says it wouldn’t have happened if he had been reelected and events seem to support that. The “old GOP” neither saw the Marist cultural revolution nor did anything to stop it. We now see they were as useless as “tits on a bull.” they had their chance and we are done with them.

    • #126
  7. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

     

    Think of how the America First folks in 1940 opposed American aid to the United Kingdom when the UK was attacked by Nazi Germany.

    Agreed and stipulated, but that isn’t really the model Trump used in his 4 years. Although I will grant you that was the rhetoric.

    Isolationism is short-sighted. It’s good that while Biden got Afghanistan terribly wrong, he is supporting military aid to Ukraine.

    After being shamed into it. I am sorry he doesn’t get much credit in my book. He has slow walked the entire time and if he weren’t so pig headed about energy policy we would be in a better strategic position. He is giving them enough aid to bleed the Russians and not enough necessarily to win. Only the fact that the Russian military is in worse shape than everyone imagined is contributing to the success the Ukrainians are having.

    This is where all this talk about America First, isolationism and globalism seems not to clarify things much.

    Some are praising Trump for being the first president to provide military aid to Ukraine after 2014. But then when Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, months later Congress voted to massively increase aid to Ukraine and Trump criticized Congress for this.

    If we are going to praise Trump for being the first to provide military aid to Ukraine after 2014, why isn’t it kosher to criticize Trump for opposing aid to Ukraine after Putin ordered the full blown invasion?

    How is supporting one aid to Ukraine package “America First” and opposing another aid to Ukraine package also “America First?”

    Why not just admit that Trump was wrong to oppose aid to Ukraine earlier this year? Even better, if you want neo-cons like me to vote for the Republican presidential candidate in 2024, maybe it’s best not to nominate someone who called Putin “savvy” and a “genius.”

    If Trump is elected in 2024, it’s entirely possible that Trump would cut Ukraine off. With Trump it’s unpredictable. He’s pro-abortion one year, pro-life the next. Donating to Harry Reid one year, running for president as a Republican the next.

    This isn’t an endorsement of Biden by any means. I’m just hoping the GOP nominates a candidate other than Trump in 2024. Pick someone’s name out of a hat. This isn’t hard.

    Why? Trump pursued the agenda he promised. Things got better. I don’t stab people in the back because snowflakes in the party got their panties in a wad.

    • #127
  8. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Victor Tango Kilo (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):
    I prefer the “old” GOP much better.

    The “old” Neocon GOP started a land war in Asia on false premises; spent two trillion dollars and squandered thousands of young lives over twenty years, achieved nothing, and left the Taliban back in power with billions of dollars worth of American armaments. (“Biden did that last thing.” Only because the Neocons started a war and didn’t finish it.)

    The “old” GOP decided we ought to have unregulated mass immigration across open borders because American workers “just can’t cut it” (Marco Rubio’s chief-of-staff), because illegal immigrants were “fertile” (Jeb Bush), because they didn’t want their children performing menial labor (Dick Cheney).

    The “old” GOP claimed to be fiscally responsible, while doubling the national debt and nearly doubling domestic spending under the Bush Administration.

    The “old” GOP made Communist China a “most favored” trading partner and gutted the American working class.

    The “old” GOP thought it was distasteful and ungentlemanly to fight against the left’s Culture War; and now Democrats are proclaiming they want “a drag queen in every classroom,” because it’s a “blessing of liberty,” and you can lose your job if you oppose the sexual mutilation of children.

    That’s the “old” GOP … the party of failure, debt, and betrayal.

    Trump loaded America up on a lot of debt also.

    By the way, I support legal immigration but I oppose illegal immigration. I think we should enact an immigration policy similar to that of Canada and Australia, where work skills are given more weight.

    During the 2016 election year, the Republican legislature in North Carolina passed a bathroom bill that would override the bathroom bill passed in the Democrat heavy city of Charlotte. This NC bathroom bill would have retained the policy of letting only women into women’s bathrooms.

    Many businesses threatened to boycott North Carolina. Trump responded by criticizing the North Carolina legislature for protecting women against the radical transgender lobby.

    Trump just promised to oppose letting men in women’s bathrooms. I suspect you got your wires crossed.

    • #128
  9. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    Victor Tango Kilo (View Comment):

    David Foster (View Comment):
    If the Democrats hold both the House and Senate in this election, then things are going to be very bad and quite possibly unrecoverable.

    I think things are already unrecoverable.

    I pray you are wrong and fear you maybe right.

    Thing are recoverable. Heck, if the people of Eastern Europe could overcome their communist enslavers, clearly we Americans can overcome Biden, Pelosi and Schumer. But only if we offer the voters a candidate a bit more articulate than Trump.

    How’s this for an idea? How about we nominate a candidate for president in 2024 who has not bragged about having affairs with married women and/or sleeping with a porn star? Sound good?

    It isn’t Trump who was the weak link.

    • #129
  10. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Sure.  If we went cold turkey and completely stopped our trade with China, huge economic disruption, for both China and the US.

    So at some level, in this globalised world economy, we are all dependent on each other.

    ..one can see how a nation like Latvia, with its small population of about 1.9 million, sees NATO membership is essential for its security, if they want to retain their representative government.  Most of NATO consists of representative governments and as Benjamin Franklin supposedly said, “We must all hang together or we must all hang separately.”  

    Why did Finland ally itself with Nazi Germany?  Because America was still isolationist and the UK did seem powerful enough to deter the Soviet Union.

    My feeling is they all want to retain their independence – and in the Baltics it’s personal when it comes to Russia.

    • #130
  11. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Why did Trump endorse Dr. Oz in the Pennsylvania US Senate Republican primary?

    Just recently former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said, “I will defend Dr. Oz as a man from New Jersey. The problem is Dr. Oz is running in Pennslvania.”

    Get rid of Trump and many, though not all, of the problems that afflict the Republican party vanish.

    No, the old problems will return. You will just have to accept that. Trump won more votes then any president had before. That isn’t a sign of a party in distress. No, not at all. What we have are two groups who vote out of emotion (hatred) Democrats and Never Trumpers.

    • #131
  12. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Victor Tango Kilo (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):
    What about Iran? Should the United States support those in Iran who are protesting against the Theocratic dictatorship that has ruled Iran since 1979?

    How do you suggest the US “support” them? Spend two trillion dollars and thousands of lives of young working class Americans and then leave the mullahs in power with lots of new weapons? Or just run them an unlimited tab like Ukraine?

    Perhaps provide Iranians with communications capability, since the Theocrats have shut down social media?

    If you didn’t vote for Trump, you enabled the man who is returning to the Iran deal.

    • #132
  13. TBA Coolidge
    TBA
    @RobtGilsdorf

    Rodin (View Comment):

    @ susanquinn, great framing. And I will add this: America had a destination when it adopted the constitution. It wasn’t there yet. Some people think it arrived at some point in the past and others think it has yet to arrive. In reality it never arrives because every generation is called upon to take up the journey. The constitution is a compass pointing toward the destination. The debate is now and ever whether we have strayed from the path and what to do to get back on the path. If we see this as a common journey and debate about the direction our constitution points us to, fine. If your goal is to throw away the compass, then we should have a real problem.

    It is interesting to note that the framers’ goal was a “more perfect union” which is a quite modest but achievable goal, as opposed to a ‘perfect union’ or any other kind of perfection. 

    • #133
  14. Barfly Member
    Barfly
    @Barfly

    I got the 2000th view.

    Susan, you’re right – there is no going back. Of course, there’s no going back in anything, really. Even in something as controlled as software development and delivery, when I make a mistake I don’t get to take it back. The only course is to fix it forward.

    • #134
  15. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Barfly (View Comment):
    Of course, there’s no going back in anything, really.

    You’re right, of course, Barfly. But I can say that in my daily life I occasionally wish for a time, or the repeat of a special event, that I could change. It is nonsense, and I don’t usually dwell on those thoughts, but they show up now and then.

    • #135
  16. Barfly Member
    Barfly
    @Barfly

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Raxxalan (View Comment):
    I think it is further than just a difference in strategy and temperament. I think the entrenched Republicans don’t share the base’s end goals on Immigration, Foreign Adventurism, and especially Globalism and Corporatism. In fact I think on the last one they share the views of the democratic party. This has led to the often vicious interparty fights.

    So in a sense, they are not legitimate Republicans. Maybe it’s clearer if we refer to Conservatives as I did in the OP. If we can agree on what makes up Conservative values, anyone else doesn’t fit in.

    I agree. I remember my Dad saying something like that in the early  ’70’s, that Conservatives and Liberals was a better description. 

    Consider the fundamental elements. Earth, air, fire, and water themselves are proportioned combinations of simpler qualities: hot/cold and dry/wet. Republican and Democrat are the social expression of individuals’ conservative/liberal and adult/child qualities.

    • #136
  17. TBA Coolidge
    TBA
    @RobtGilsdorf

    Barfly (View Comment):

    Susan, you’re right – there is no going back. Of course, there’s no going back in anything, really. 

    This is certainly true – the genie doesn’t go back into the toothpaste tube. 

    But I could wish the libs would stop ‘fixing’ stuff faster than we can stay afloat. 

    • #137
  18. Tonguetied Fred Member
    Tonguetied Fred
    @TonguetiedFred

    Eh… Not really.  I mean I agree with you that there is no going back but painting the Never Trumpers as psychologically damaged individuals who just can handle life and want to put their hands over their ears and close their eyes and chant “I can’t hear you” over and over is so simplistic as to be laughable.

    In your eagerness to paint your side as the cold eyed realists who are the only ones to understand the danger you are missing out on what many Never Trumpers are saying that is real and that many of the dangers they are warning about are truly concerning.

    I am not a Never Trumper.  I am not a Trumper.  I strive to understand what both sides are saying and come to my own conclusions.  My current conclusion is that while a second Trump term in 2020 would have been problematic in many ways, it would have been better for the country than Biden.  However at this point I believe a second Trump term beginning in 2024 would be disastrous.

    • #138
  19. TBA Coolidge
    TBA
    @RobtGilsdorf

    Tonguetied Fred (View Comment):

    Eh… Not really. I mean I agree with you that there is no going back but painting the Never Trumpers as psychologically damaged individuals who just can handle life and want to put their hands over their ears and close their eyes and chant “I can’t hear you” over and over is so simplistic as to be laughable.

    In your eagerness to paint your side as the cold eyed realists who are the only ones to understand the danger you are missing out on what many Never Trumpers are saying that is real and that many of the dangers they are warning about are truly concerning.

    I am not a Never Trumper. I am not a Trumper. I strive to understand what both sides are saying and come to my own conclusions. My current conclusion is that while a second Trump term in 2020 would have been problematic in many ways, it would have been better for the country than Biden. However at this point I believe a second Trump term beginning in 2024 would be disastrous.

    Assuming it is a choice between Trump and Biden, which would be the more disastrous? 

    • #139
  20. Raxxalan Member
    Raxxalan
    @Raxxalan

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    I don’t know that I agree with you entirely that this is US foreign Policy? Western Europe has been playing footsie with Ukraine for a long time and this feels more like the US got dragged/ shamed into the Ukraine policy by other NATO allies. In fact in February through March the US was debating with itself about what aid it could give Ukraine, while other NATO countries were doing more. That is why I don’t give Biden a lot of credit for Ukraine.

    Germany and the US have a different cost: benefit ratio for supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russia.

    (And Germany has a different ratio from Poland, or the Baltics, etc. And Germany itself encompasses different voices and agendas.)

    At this point it looks like the US’ views are prevailing. There’s the potential for Germany to have a different relationship with Russia, and it’s definitely in the US’ interests to stop that relationship from developing.

    I agree with you support for Ukraine isn’t necessarily in Germany’s interest, but I don’t think that they ones necessarily dragging Bidden kicking and screaming into helping Ukraine.  NATO is a large organization.  I think that Poland, UK, and the Baltics were more on the pro-Ukrainian side at least in the beginning.  Now it may have more or coalesced as a US foreign policy objective.  I just don’t believe it started out that way. 

    I agree with you that Germany has a different conception than the US which is fine, but you can’t be in military alliance with the US.  Not be meeting your commitments under that Alliance and also have a relationship with a strategic competitor of that alliance.   I realize Germany might want to have its cake and eat it too, but it isn’t just the US that is going to have heartburn with that it is much of NATO that is going to have a issue with that as well. 

    I do agree with your point that the US has the whip hand in the foreign policy posture of NATO, and that we should because we are paying the lion share of the budget and will bear disproportionate losses if it comes to NATO operations in Europe.

    If the confrontation happens in Europe that’s not really the case. They’re ground zero, not the US.

    Fair point.  I meant in terms of military losses; however, we are seeing that the Russian way of war is much less discriminant than the US tries to be, so I agree they have skin in the game, which is all the more reason for them to do more in the name of their own defense.

    I just don’t necessarily think that is good thing. I would much rather German pay for its own military and NATO be an organization that has its own foreign policy posture in which the US had a say.

    I would also rather Germany develop its own energy resources rather than depend on Russia.

    Germany’s energy resources? Isn’t it dependent on importing energy from somewhere, given the size of its manufacturing sector? Do you mean alternative resources to Russia?

    I actually meant their own resources.  They had sizable Nuclear energy sector which they began decommissioning after Fukushima.  They have pretty good reserves of coal.  I am not sure what their gas reserves look like but I doubt they have actually really even done much exploration to determine what those might be.   My sense of German energy is that it is very similar to California in the US.  A net energy importer not necessarily from lack of resources but because exploiting those resources goes against the fashionable green movement in Western Europe.  It is a kind of NIMBYism that is long term harmful.  France and the UK aren’t much better mind you they too are not keeping up with domestic energy production, although France does better because of Nuclear.  In general though all of Western Europe has gone on a pseudo green kick.  I say pseudo because they aren’t really decarbonizing they are just importing carbon from Russia, which I suppose in a different world would be rational but when Russia is an existential threat to the European project that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.  Importing from the US and Canada would make more sense if we weren’t also caught up in our own green boondoggle.    

    I’ve read that Germany should have been less dependent on Russia for gas, and should have switched to importing LNG from the US instead. Which is fair enough, but that’s just another dependency. Dependent on Russia. Dependent on the US. Still dependent.

    They should be working to become independent themselves.  Not decommissioning Nuclear power plants would be something.  Also working to make supplies available from Western Europe would make sense too.  Norway and the UK have exploitable gas reserves.  I agree dependence isn’t good but it is a choice for Germany.  It isn’t their fate.

    Also if Biden had not reversed course on the Nordstream 2 sanctions I doubt Putin would have invaded Ukraine. If Germany wants a bigger say in NATO they definitely have the economy to be doing more in their own defense.

    Yes and yes. I’m not sure how pleased the US will be if/when the latter happens. Germany will be a lot less biddable. imho.

    Agreed but not necessarily a bad thing in the long run.  Realistically Europe should be taking up its own defense and foreign policy that better reflects their own values and priorities.  If they don’t align with the US that is fine as long as you aren’t expecting the US to foot the bill for your defense.  Also I expect that Germany would have a large say, but not only say.  Their are plenty of other NATO countries or EU countries that would tend to balance out Germany.

    The thing is, geography dictates that Russian energy is the cheapest option for the German economy. Fighting that has a whole pushing water uphill thing to it. Economic gravity pulls towards a certain outcome (with the Russians no longer out) and always will.

    It does to an extent.  As I pointed out if Germany wasn’t on a pseudo green fetish, They would have other options.  They might even have cheaper options.  They chose to go down the path of dependence.  I don’t think it isn’t rational but Putin doesn’t have Western Europe’s or Germany’s long term welfare in mind.  Something that policy makers in Europe should realize and take into account.  If you are going to be a client of a great power then It is better to be a US client than a Chinese client or a  Russian client.   Europe itself could bid fare to be a great power if they are willing to developed their own energy resources and take ownership for their own defense.

    • #140
  21. Raxxalan Member
    Raxxalan
    @Raxxalan

    Zafar (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    I’d be tempted to say Canada and Mexico in the sense that the US is better off with peaceful and prosperous neighbors. That is a kind of dependency. But the US is also better off with a peaceful and prosperous Europe and far East. So, nearly every European nation and also Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand.

    India is an important country. If India becomes freer and more prosperous, retaining and strengthening the representative nature of its government, then India-US relations will likely grow stronger.

    I could also see, if Iran were to overthrow its dictatorship and get a government that is representative, Iran-US relations would be very good. Iran-Israel relations would be dramatically different if Iran were to overthrow its theocratic regime with a government that was representative

    You left out a pretty important trade partner:

    File:US trade final-01.svg

    (Hint: China)

    That is a bit of a double edged sword as we are learning.  The question is how much of a double edge sword is it for China as well.

    • #141
  22. TBA Coolidge
    TBA
    @RobtGilsdorf

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

     

    I do agree with your point that the US has the whip hand in the foreign policy posture of NATO, and that we should because we are paying the lion share of the budget and will bear disproportionate losses if it comes to NATO operations in Europe.

    If the confrontation happens in Europe that’s not really the case. They’re ground zero, not the US.

    Fair point.  I meant in terms of military losses; however, we are seeing that the Russian way of war is much less discriminant than the US tries to be, so I agree they have skin in the game, which is all the more reason for them to do more in the name of their own defense.

    The US has a solid history of flying our skin over to be in Europe’s games, and others’ games as well. 

    • #142
  23. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Tonguetied Fred (View Comment):

    Eh… Not really. I mean I agree with you that there is no going back but painting the Never Trumpers as psychologically damaged individuals who just can handle life and want to put their hands over their ears and close their eyes and chant “I can’t hear you” over and over is so simplistic as to be laughable.

    In your eagerness to paint your side as the cold eyed realists who are the only ones to understand the danger you are missing out on what many Never Trumpers are saying that is real and that many of the dangers they are warning about are truly concerning.

    I am not a Never Trumper. I am not a Trumper. I strive to understand what both sides are saying and come to my own conclusions. My current conclusion is that while a second Trump term in 2020 would have been problematic in many ways, it would have been better for the country than Biden. However at this point I believe a second Trump term beginning in 2024 would be disastrous.

    Your characterizations of my descriptions are exaggerated and distorted. Not even close. 

    • #143
  24. CarolJoy, Not So Easy To Kill Coolidge
    CarolJoy, Not So Easy To Kill
    @CarolJoy

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    I don’t know that I agree with you entirely that this is US foreign Policy? Western Europe has been playing footsie with Ukraine for a long time and this feels more like the US got dragged/ shamed into the Ukraine policy by other NATO allies. In fact in February through March the US was debating with itself about what aid it could give Ukraine, while other NATO countries were doing more. That is why I don’t give Biden a lot of credit for Ukraine.

    Germany and the US have a different cost: benefit ratio for supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russia.

    (And Germany has a different ratio from Poland, or the Baltics, etc. And Germany itself encompasses different voices and agendas.)

    At this point it looks like the US’ views are prevailing. There’s the potential for Germany to have a different relationship with Russia, and it’s definitely in the US’ interests to stop that relationship from developing.

    I agree with you support for Ukraine isn’t necessarily in Germany’s interest, but I don’t think that they ones necessarily dragging Bidden kicking and screaming into helping Ukraine. NATO is a large organization. I think that Poland, UK, and the Baltics were more on the pro-Ukrainian side at least in the beginning. Now it may have more or coalesced as a US foreign policy objective. I just don’t believe it started out that way.

    I agree with you that Germany has a different conception than the US which is fine, but you can’t be in military alliance with the US. Not be meeting your commitments under that Alliance and also have a relationship with a strategic competitor of that alliance. I realize Germany might want to have its cake and eat it too, but it isn’t just the US that is going to have heartburn with that it is much of NATO that is going to have a issue with that as well.

     

    The thing of it is, Hillary Clinton ran for the US presidency in 2016. It is important to note how the US general she was most closely aligned with during that time period was a guy who published a book in 2016. In that screed, he clearly stated that war against Russia was a US necessity by Dec 2017.

    It was not at all EU officials aligned with NATO officials who oversaw the Maiden revolution in Dec 2013, that toppled the legitimately elected president of the Ukraine. It was our funding via the John Kerry/Biden forces inside the Obama Administration that accomplished that.

    Why? Well for one thing, Ukraine sits on a super valuable shale oil reserve. And then after the president was deposed, Burisma Energy had the ability to employ both Biden and Kerry’s offspring.

     

     

     

    • #144
  25. Raxxalan Member
    Raxxalan
    @Raxxalan

    CarolJoy, Not So Easy To Kill (View Comment):

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    I don’t know that I agree with you entirely that this is US foreign Policy? Western Europe has been playing footsie with Ukraine for a long time and this feels more like the US got dragged/ shamed into the Ukraine policy by other NATO allies. In fact in February through March the US was debating with itself about what aid it could give Ukraine, while other NATO countries were doing more. That is why I don’t give Biden a lot of credit for Ukraine.

    Germany and the US have a different cost: benefit ratio for supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russia.

    (And Germany has a different ratio from Poland, or the Baltics, etc. And Germany itself encompasses different voices and agendas.)

    At this point it looks like the US’ views are prevailing. There’s the potential for Germany to have a different relationship with Russia, and it’s definitely in the US’ interests to stop that relationship from developing.

    I agree with you support for Ukraine isn’t necessarily in Germany’s interest, but I don’t think that they ones necessarily dragging Bidden kicking and screaming into helping Ukraine. NATO is a large organization. I think that Poland, UK, and the Baltics were more on the pro-Ukrainian side at least in the beginning. Now it may have more or coalesced as a US foreign policy objective. I just don’t believe it started out that way.

    I agree with you that Germany has a different conception than the US which is fine, but you can’t be in military alliance with the US. Not be meeting your commitments under that Alliance and also have a relationship with a strategic competitor of that alliance. I realize Germany might want to have its cake and eat it too, but it isn’t just the US that is going to have heartburn with that it is much of NATO that is going to have a issue with that as well.

     

    The thing of it is, Hillary Clinton ran for the US presidency in 2016. It is important to note how the US general she was most closely aligned with during that time period was a guy who published a book in 2016. In that screed, he clearly stated that war against Russia was a US necessity by Dec 2017.

    It was not at all EU officials aligned with NATO officials who oversaw the Maiden revolution in Dec 2013, that toppled the legitimately elected president of the Ukraine. It was our funding via the John Kerry/Biden forces inside the Obama Administration that accomplished that.

    Why? Well for one thing, Ukraine sits on a super valuable shale oil reserve. And then after the president was deposed, Burisma Energy had the ability to employ both Biden and Kerry’s offspring.

     

     

     

    I agree the democrats were up to their elbows in the Maiden revolution; however, it was originally a dispute between pro-Russian and pro-European political groups in Ukraine.  The EU types definitely stirred the pot.    

    • #145
  26. TBA Coolidge
    TBA
    @RobtGilsdorf

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    CarolJoy, Not So Easy To Kill (View Comment):

    The thing of it is, Hillary Clinton ran for the US presidency in 2016. It is important to note how the US general she was most closely aligned with during that time period was a guy who published a book in 2016. In that screed, he clearly stated that war against Russia was a US necessity by Dec 2017.

    It was not at all EU officials aligned with NATO officials who oversaw the Maiden revolution in Dec 2013, that toppled the legitimately elected president of the Ukraine. It was our funding via the John Kerry/Biden forces inside the Obama Administration that accomplished that.

    Why? Well for one thing, Ukraine sits on a super valuable shale oil reserve. And then after the president was deposed, Burisma Energy had the ability to employ both Biden and Kerry’s offspring.

    I agree the democrats were up to their elbows in the Maiden revolution; however, it was originally a dispute between pro-Russian and pro-European political groups in Ukraine. The EU types definitely stirred the pot.

    And Biden and Kerry got heapin’ platefulls

    • #146
  27. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    I agree with you support for Ukraine isn’t necessarily in Germany’s interest, but I don’t think that they ones necessarily dragging Bidden kicking and screaming into helping Ukraine.

    On the contrary, I think the US dragged the rest of NATO into a confrontation with Russia over Ukraine.

    The Germans weren’t behind Maidan (or any of the other colour revolutions), that was the US.

    NATO is a large organization. I think that Poland, UK, and the Baltics were more on the pro-Ukrainian side at least in the beginning.

    The UK is the only one of that lot capable of shaping NATO policy – Poland and the Baltics are not really in that position, it’s as possible as Turkey shaping NATO policy to its own benefit at a cost to other NATO members, ie not in any substantive way – and the UK, at this point, is very much Deputy Dog.  They need the US after Brexit, they have no option but to support.

    I agree with you that Germany has a different conception than the US which is fine, but you can’t be in military alliance with the US. Not be meeting your commitments under that Alliance and also have a relationship with a strategic competitor of that alliance.

    I think the core issue is Russia’s place in the world – equal(ish) or subordinate.  It all flows from that.

    …Germany might want to have its cake and eat it too, but it isn’t just the US that is going to have heartburn with that it is much of NATO that is going to have a issue with that….

    Does NATO really need Russia as a strategic competitor?  Does the US need Russia as a strategic competitor? Does Europe need Russia as a strategic competitor?

    In each of these cases, if so why so? (Imo: maybe, yes, no.)

    Realistically Europe should be taking up its own defense and foreign policy that better reflects their own values and priorities. If they don’t align with the US that is fine as long as you aren’t expecting the US to foot the bill for your defense.

    Again, I think you are putting the cart before the horse.  The US paid for a lot of global security after WWII, and as a consequence the US has had a the power to dictate (mostly politely, but still) the post war security architecture (!!) of much of the world.  That was a feature, not a bug.

    The US now wants to stop paying, and that’s fair enough, but I’m not sure the US is ready for the reduction in power that will come with that.  What will a world where German interests are not subordinate to US interests look like?

    (My guess is that it would include a functioning Nordstream 2 pipeline.  And I also expect a colour revolution attempt in Germany if they look like they’re even thinking of being more independent.)

     

    • #147
  28. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Zafar (View Comment):
    Does NATO really need Russia as a strategic competitor?  Does the US need Russia as a strategic competitor? Does Europe need Russia as a strategic competitor?

    Why do you suppose it is that Putin has been thundering around Moscow for almost two decades blaming the US for all of Russia’s problems and putting himself forward as the solution? He wants us as an enemy – why not indulge him?

    • #148
  29. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Percival (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):
    Does NATO really need Russia as a strategic competitor? Does the US need Russia as a strategic competitor? Does Europe need Russia as a strategic competitor?

    Why do you suppose it is that Putin has been thundering around Moscow for almost two decades blaming the US for all of Russia’s problems and putting himself forward as the solution?

    Does he have any justification at all for this?

    He wants us as an enemy – why not indulge him?

    Cart, horse?

    • #149
  30. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Does he have any justification at all for this?

    We’re not the ones that let the ones who allowed the oligarchs to accumulate all the distributed shares of formerly Communist-owned Gazprom and all the other commodities goodies for kopeks on the ruble.

     

    • #150
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