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Decision Time in Ukraine
In the Land of Confusion podcast covering the six-month anniversary of the start of the Ukraine War, I stated that the behavior of the Ukrainians over the last six weeks struck me as consistent with their shaping the battlefield for an offensive around Kherson. The types of strikes that Ukraine had been making were designed to isolate Russian forces in Kherson by cutting supply routes, destroying ammo and fuel dumps, and forcing the Russian aircraft out of Crimea. I thought it would start in September, likely mid-September.
It appears I was off by a week or two. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources are reporting that such an offensive has begun. At this point, both sides are declaring they are winning. That, too, is to be expected.
I will make another prediction: This offensive probably means the war will end within the next ten weeks. I am not predicting who will win — just that this battle will likely settle the war. If the Ukrainians succeed, the Russians will be playing the British at Yorktown. If the Russians succeed in stopping the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians will be playing the Germans in the Ardennes. In short, the loser will lack the military assets to continue the war.
We will know better in a week who the likely winner is.
Published in Military
Well, obvs. But also whose war is this? How can Boris or Biden’s puppet masters step in and say “No, don’t you go declaring peace! You have to keep fighting until we tell you you can stop!”
Unless, of course, it really isn’t Ukraine’s war, but the West’s, only using Ukrainian soldiers for cannon fodder . . .
Some people confuse clarity with Russian sympathies.
Some people confuse cynicism and suspicions with clarity.
Some people confuse red lights with green lights and there are car accidents.
Because at this moment in time they don’t see India standing in the way of their plan for regional domination and they do see America as doing so. At least that is what I would imagine. The current regime will probably say something like it was America’s support for the Shah, but comparing human rights records the Shah was a lot less bloodthirsty and totalitarian than the current regime. They might if they are enterprising point to Mossadegh which is a favorite trope of the left, but in the end it is because we don’t want to let them reestablish the Persian Empire. How dare we.
Also I don’t really think it matters. If you chant death to America I don’t want you to have nuclear weapons because I have a suspicion what you are going to do with them and I don’t think I’ll like it much. Also I think it does have something to do with religion. I don’t know why people fail to understand that religion is a very meaningful part of human existence. Wars have been fought because of it in the past and wars are still being fought because of it in the middle east. Everyone in the middle east whether they are secular or not has a religious identity. It is a problem in the same way the religious identities in Northern Ireland were a problem. Is that all there is to it no, but it is part of it.
Drew: Unless, of course, it really isn’t Ukraine’s war, but the West’s, only using Ukrainian soldiers for cannon fodder . . .
It’s not the “West”‘s war. It is the World Economic Forum’s war. They are the puppet masters. They want death and destruction on an unbelievable scale. They wanted Europe to be driven to it’s knees , which they have largely achieved with a disastrous winter coming which will really break the back of Europe, so that the peoples of Europe will throw out their rulers, their governments and their rights and look to a new “strongman” – the WEF – to solve their problems.
Not only are the Ukrainian soldiers but so are the Ukrainian people cannon fodder to be used to achieve the WEF’s goals.
MiMac questioned whether this is really an expensive war, as only a whack job Lefty would who can’t see what is really happening would do. After WWII, America created a post Bretton Woods World economic/political/military and trade order that brought Freedom, Democracy and a touch of Prosperity to a huge number of nations around the world that had never known it, but then that order was slowly eaten away by the corrupt shenanigans of our elites, including the Bushes, Clintons, Ohamas and Biden’s, that made it vulnerable to attack and disruption.
Over the last twenty five years this world order created a vast, interconnected, interdependent and very fragile trade/ supply chain architecture that is now being ripped apart by the purposeful consequences of the WEF’s war in the Ukraine in ways that are almost too complex to figure out. Not only have the supply chains of energy, food and fertilizer been disrupted but a whole host of raw materials and critical industrial components have as well. The costs of this disruptive attack tower way, way, way above in comparison to the military costs of roughly $80 billion or so of this Ukrainian War. We may never be able to reconstruct the old world order in our lifetime at a monumental cost to societies around the world.
America may well weather this storm because we unlike any other nation on the planet have a unique ability to feed and provide energy to ourselves with a unique geographic fortification of two oceans to protect us with an already in place infrastructure that can still innovate and create new products to replace much of was lost. With the exception of a few countries that can effectively hitch their wagon to ours like, Canada, Mexico, Great Britain and Japan, most of the rest of the world will not be so lucky. But all that said the cost to us alone will be enormous beyond belief.
You’re making a lot of this up, right?
Oooh nooo insults (or at least bad attempts at them)….
This war is Russia’s- they desired it, they planned it & started it. The guilt is theirs alone. Ukraine has no choice but to defend itself or risk genocide. The West has a moral duty to aid it Ukraine. The outcome is far from clear, but so far Russia has failed dramatically in its initial war goals.
“whack job lefty”- you are comical indeed. Try providing a quote where I said the war isn’t expensive….but facts & data typical elude you at every turn-so much better to wallow in conspiracy theories. The cost so far to the US is a fraction of the cost borne by Ukraine & Russia. What we have spent will be well worth it if we can maintain an independent Ukraine. A Ukraine that defeats the invasion & solidly aligns with the NATO is a nightmare for Putin- and he is the catalyzing that outcome.
Our ties with NATO & our alliance with Japan etc are now much stronger than they were 2 years ago- b/c nothing cements an alliance more than the recognition that countries like Russia & China are real threats. For too long many in Europe refused to see it, but now it is clear. Trump rightly criticized many in the EU for failures to live up to their commitments- but that is no longer a problem (thanks Vlad!). Putin hoped to split NATO with a rapid coup de main in Kyiv- but his failure has only strengthened the ties among our allies. If we can prevent his dismemberment of Ukraine than he will have suffered a major strategic reversal- an enlarged and engaged NATO (which should include Ukraine) and the distrust of virtually every nation on earth.
addendum- a decent outcome to this war & the US will have Poland & Ukraine as close allies. Together 80+ million people who are more than willing to bear their share in any alliance. That alone would be a major deterrent to any future Russian mischief.
hallucinating it is a better term….
Oooh nooo insults (or at least bad attempts at them)….
War and profits share the same relationship that medicine and profits share.
Have a strategically planned out war necessary for a nation’s defense, and no one minds the profits of the defense industry. (It should be noted that during & immediately after WWII, quite a bit of the fraud in the system was actually discovered and people indicted for it.)
This is quite similar to how a patient doesn’t mind the expense of a med procedure if it was actually warranted and it did the trick.
But if a war is unnecessary and is stoked into an overextended period as the generals have no strategy, & the soldiers on the ground had almost worthless equipment & the main reason it was kept ramped up was to initially allow Lyndon Johnson entry into war profits (Quarter of a million went into his pocket over the development of a military-suitable Cam Rahn Bay,) then both the war and the profit structure are hard to defend.
When the overall public was sick of the Vietnam war, we were in turn fed the slick and sick propaganda that if we didn’t continue to send young men over there to die, then the sacrifices of those who had died previously were being dishonored.
14 minute video on Ukrainian officials and how they are currently lacking honor. The thefts these officials committed involves 22 massive shipping containers filled to the brim and an entire train that had over 350 freight cars. Money was also stolen, also 220 trucks filled with US aid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM2qjkMLxUE
Like the discussion panel mentions: what a travesty it is that these thefts are occurring even as American consumers are facing massive supply shortages, and people having to choose between food or meds, or rent or food, or utilities or food.
Well an awful lot of the plunder will end up in the hands of Ukrainians. See my post right above this one.
“The Redacted” You Tube channel you mention is run by Clayton and Natali Morris. They left the US for Portugal after lawsuits were filed against them claiming a real estate scam. Legal trouble seems to be a feature of some pro-Russian bloggers like “The Duran.”
I tried to find who was funding them, but they made about $5 million in their alleged real estate scam.
The JCPOA was a way to bring them into the American sphere of influence (or empire, if you will), in a way that they perceived to be to their own benefit – and that is the opportunity that was squandered.
Interaction and interdependence is a two way street. At some point there would have been a critical mass of bazaris in Tehran who were doing well from interaction with the West and who started to question whether actions that disturbed the West were worth it. (Ditto with the West and actions that disturbed Iran. That’s how the Abraham Accords will hopefully work given time.)
They distrust the US because of concrete actions (coup, maintain a dictator, support Iraq in the war, impoverishing sanctions, capriciously exiting the JCPOA = yet more sanctions) or because of something airy fairy (won’t let us have an empire! so unfair!). I know which seems far more persuasive to me, but the US is not my country so maybe it’s easier for me to look at it with a colder eye?
Aren’t you even slightly curious as to why they chant this?
Is America the real victim here?
Wrt Death To America, I’ll confess I’m surprised. I thought it was fading, but apparently it’s still going strong and they use it more or less like ‘Viva la Revolucion!’ Interestingly it pre-dates the Islamic Revolution.
https://apnews.com/article/politics-ap-top-news-iran-donald-trump-barack-obama-b366e2dbdec548808c7313fd06bc9118
https://www.timesofisrael.com/to-support-us-protesters-iranian-lawmakers-chant-death-to-america/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/08/18/globalpost-iran-death-america-doesnt-mean-what-you-think-means/31910553/
https://themedialine.org/news/iranian-leader-reflects-on-death-to-america-chant-during-40th-anniversary-ceremony/
Agree – though if everybody has a religious identity then that identity isn’t chosen or even a function of belief. So it can be given more weight than it merits. It isn’t like it is in the West.
Excuse me, I am the whack job Lefty working this side of the street. MiMac is the whack job Righty.
Thanks.
They got hundreds of millions in cash — flown in to sidestep sanctions — as a ransom for four American prisoners.
Seems like they got quite a benefit out of it.
Criminals get picked up for a crime by the police, and hopefully end up in prison.
Then they chant “F the Police!”
Do I care why?
No.
(Although I do already know.)
It bears repeating – this was Iran’s money, it wasn’t a hand out:
It’s incredibly frustrating when people forget that.
Here’s the issue.
I found it appalling that Trudeau froze the truckers bank accounts. It may have been ‘legal’, but it was over-reach and brought the whole free market into question imo – because if the Govt can just freeze your access to the money that you, yourself have earned or own or whatever, then it’s no longer fully your money. In which case what’s the point of a free market?
I don’t see any difference between that and a Government freezing any other account – the way the US did for Iran’s accounts, and now again for Russia’s accounts. What’s the difference? Why is one bad but the second in any way moral?
I don’t buy that excuse. It was ransom. The Obama regime tried to say that the release of prisoners only coincidentally happened at the same time palettes of cash were flown in.
Not a chance.
Oh I think you’re right, but I don’t think the US should have been holding that cash back in the first place. It’s murky, and neither side seems to have acted above board.
That Ukrainian cannon fodder is particularly tough- they have provided photographically verified evidence of over 1000 destroyed Russian tanks (plus the Lord only knows how many others that they lack photographs of), in addition to thousands of other weapon systems.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
EDIT: Never mind.
It hasn’t worked very well with China. I am less optimistic that it would work with Iran. Functionally Obama had an opportunity early in his presidency to push on Iran when the Arab spring was going on. He neglected the opportunity and the hardliners were able to reestablish control. The JCPOA is a way for Europe to make a lot of money off Iran and Iran to continue with it’s anti-American/ anti-Israel policies. Obama also hoped to make Iran a counter balance to the Saudis, which seems foolish. I don’t know how that really benefits US interests in the region. Actually though the JCPOA did probably help facilitate the Abraham Accords, it gave the Gulf states and Israel a common enemy.
Well did occupy our embassy and hold a bunch of American’s hostage. That is actually an act of war against the US, so in some sense they got off easy. They are also a major state sponsor of Terror, which really didn’t change when they were in the JCPOA the first time. Also that was a violation of the terms of the JCPOA, so I don’t think you could say the US capriciously exited the agreement. It is clear they want to be a regional hegemon, so not sure that is so airy-fairy. Also it is difficult to say what is the feeling of an citizen of Iran verses the Leadership in Iran. I suspect the average citizen of Iran doesn’t think much about the revolution in 1979 and justifications. I could be wrong, but normally people don’t have that long of a memory/ attention span.
Not really? I mean if you are talking in the cosmic scheme of things and trying to imply they are more sinned against than sinning you may have a point; however, that doesn’t change the calculation about what is in my interest.
Once again who cares. Why should the US make it easier for a regime to maneuver that at least rhetorically is still advocating harm to it. Also where as I am not as much a fan of preemption as some hawks are. I might make an exception to stop a hostile regime from gaining nuclear weapons.
I don’t think I follow your last point. I think that a great deal of the problem in the middle east doesn’t come down to a religious struggle between Israel and the Arab countries because of Judaism vs Islam. I think much of the issues comes down to differences between Sunnis vs Shias. The Israelis may be a convenient distraction at times, but by and large it is the Sunni / Shia struggle that defines much of what is going on.
How could Obama have pushed on Iran, as a country or regime? If the JCPOA had been properly implemented that would have weakened the hard liners and strengthened the reformers. Very relative terms in Iran – so let’s not get too excited about the reformers – but without actually going to war that was Obama’s (and the US’) best option.
Why wouldn’t the US and Iran also make a lot of money off each other? And why wouldn’t that work the way we hope the Abraham Accords will?
The more options you have for local support the less beholden you are to one of them and the less constrained you are in which course of action you can take. Also it’s good to keep allies a bit competitive, makes them more cooperative.
The US exiting the JCPOA did that.
Why?
Americans remember the hostage crisis pretty vividly. And that shapes how Iran is seen today. For Iran, it’s 1953 and what followed.
It’s in your interest not to do things which cause people to shout Death To America. No?
The frustrates me. The US could win the long game easily, imho, by being decent. And the American people are decent. So your foreign policy is not just flawed, but it’s out of step with the country’s interests.
Indeed not. It doesn’t come down to Sunni vs Shia either. It’s about which groups have access to resources and power and which don’t. Defined by religious identity, often, but not driven by differing beliefs. jmho.
Thank you for the info on “The Redacted” youtube channel.
I found the youtube video of the young real estate entrepreneur who had once interviewed Clayton Morris on his show.
He has fully investigated Claytom Morris’ real estate deals. He at first quite reluctantly began to question if the pissed off marks were telling the truth about being defrauded by Clayton.
But with more and more information being uncovered, he decided the ripped off investors were right. He even took the youtube episode which had featured Morris off his channel.
He could have supported the Green Revolution, at least rhetorically and called for new elections in Iran. It was an easy thing to do and to your point would have been in keeping with American values.
I don’t actually believe that their are many reformers in Iran’s government. I think Iran alternates between the appearance of hard liners and the appearance of reformers based on internal and external needs of the regime. The real power in Iran is the supreme council and the IRGC. The elected leadership is pretty much window dressing, at least in my view.
If the Abraham Accords work they will work because the Gulf States and the Israelis have a common enemy in Iran. In time there may be enough cultural exchange between Israel and the Abraham Accord nations that it turns into genuine feelings of respect and friendship. It won’t work with Iran because that isn’t what they want. They don’t want to make money in the region and live the Iranian version of the good life, most Iranians probably do want this, but the leadership of the country don’t. They are a revolutionary republic and want to export the revolution. They have done so successfully to Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and Yemen. They want to destroy Israel presumably because they see it as an affront to Islam. They want to dominate the Gulf. Until their leadership’s goals change I don’t expect that much is gained by working with them.
Probably true in theory. Worts and all Saudia Arabia has been a US ally for decades. Iran has been engaged in a proxy war with the US in Iraq for decades, including while Obama was making this deal. I think probably he (Obama) who always had a high opinion of himself thought he could flip the script by shear force of his personality and will. I think the Iranians recognized this and rolled him.
Not really the Israelis and Saudis had been working clandestinely since Obama started pivoting to Iran. They both saw the writing on the wall. The JCPOA was flawed from the start and Iran was violating the agreement six to sixteen ways from Sunday. Effectively the JCPOA was a deal only one side the US was following, so exiting it made sense. You can’t be the only one honoring an agreement, that looks and smells like weakness and others will take advantage.
I don’t care. I thought I made that clear. I know you greatly subscribe to the Mossadegh theory of the case I really just don’t. I think it equally likely they don’t like us because we drink alcohol, eat pork, don’t cover up our women, and support gay marriage. Although granted that last one probably didn’t apply in 1979. It also could be they don’t like us because we support Israel.
Perhaps. I don’t actually think most Americans remember the hostage crisis. I don’t think most Americans really remember 9/11 that well. We don’t tend to have very long memories. I also doubt most Iranians (median age 32) care much about something that happened 60+ years ago. I will admit I may be projecting there.
Depends really. I am not a interventionalist, so broadly I think we do too many things in too many parts of the world. I am also not an Isolationist so I don’t think that we should not be involved in the world at all. I don’t like what Iran is doing in the world and has been doing since the revolution, so I don’t really care what their underlying grievance is. Russia is unhappy with the US because we are supporting Ukraine. North Korea is upset with the US because we support South Korea. China is upset with the US because we support Taiwan and Japan. I don’t think we shouldn’t be supporting those people, so I don’t really care that much that we are making Russia, China, and North Korea upset, as long as they don’t get so upset they decide to use nuclear weapons.
What is being decent? I think that depends a lot on your perspective. I don’t think the JCPOA is being decent. I think it is helping a revolutionary export misery to the region. I don’t think Hamas, and Hezbollah have been good for the region or the world. I use to be a big fan of the two state solution in Israel. After watching what happened after the Israelis left Gaza I am not so sure it is really a viable solution.
All this being said I tend to agree that US foreign policy is a mess. Generally speaking I don’t think it is aligned at all with US interests or values. It tends to be either just perpetuating the status quo at the end of the cold war or too interventionalist. I would not necessarily have an issue with a much more modest foreign policy. That having been said I don’t think allowing Iran freedom to pursue its current objectives is a prudent move, and getting back into the JCPOA appears to be inane and insane.
That is perhaps true. It fits nicely with the sweep of human history and human nature. That having been said there are definitely actors in the region that are primarily motivated by their interpretation (often strict) of Islam. I think the west does itself a disservice when we fail to recognize this.
Vocal American support for any movement in Iran is the kiss of death for that movement. Let’s be real.
These are very relative terms, and yes, the real power does lie with the Supreme Council. But they can’t completely ignore public opinion either, or the country would become ungovernable.
They will work when people make enough money off each other that it matters more than other disagreements. And at this point they’re ‘working’ because none of the Arab countries that signed up are democracies – the opinion of the people is secondary, but in the long run that’s what you need for the Accords to be stable. And that…well, it does depend on Israel resolving the Palestinians’ issues.
So why did the enter the JCPOA in the first place?
If people in these countries weren’t under attack (Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Yemen) or being oppressed by their own Governments (Gaza, Yemen) there would be no appetite or need for Iranian help. That is a symptom, not the cause.
It’s the last overt Western colonial project in the Middle East. And they keep killing Palestinians.
But so do you. And probably a lot of other countries.
Hence the JCPOA. Opportunity squandered.
A war you started, and which you can end. To everybody’s benefit.
Not true:
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2017/jun/14/karen-handel/iran-complying-nuclear-deal-yes-small-hiccups/
Now you’re speaking for the Iranians?
Why not? Isn’t it something that the US should avoid in future?
If the Arab countries were actually concerned with the “Palestinians'” issues, they could have been resolved long ago.