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Decision Time in Ukraine
In the Land of Confusion podcast covering the six-month anniversary of the start of the Ukraine War, I stated that the behavior of the Ukrainians over the last six weeks struck me as consistent with their shaping the battlefield for an offensive around Kherson. The types of strikes that Ukraine had been making were designed to isolate Russian forces in Kherson by cutting supply routes, destroying ammo and fuel dumps, and forcing the Russian aircraft out of Crimea. I thought it would start in September, likely mid-September.
It appears I was off by a week or two. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources are reporting that such an offensive has begun. At this point, both sides are declaring they are winning. That, too, is to be expected.
I will make another prediction: This offensive probably means the war will end within the next ten weeks. I am not predicting who will win — just that this battle will likely settle the war. If the Ukrainians succeed, the Russians will be playing the British at Yorktown. If the Russians succeed in stopping the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians will be playing the Germans in the Ardennes. In short, the loser will lack the military assets to continue the war.
We will know better in a week who the likely winner is.
Published in Military
What battles are you referring to?
It is my impression that the stronger power also relies heavily on strategy and tactics. We did so in the Civil War and WWII, for example — the Anaconda Plan in the former; bombing and the Normandy Invasion in the latter in Europe, and the island-hopping campaign in the Pacific.
The Confederacy thought that their moral and strategic superiority would lead to victory. That didn’t work out well for them.
I’m trying to think of an occasion on which the obviously stronger side was beaten in a war. It’s sometimes hard to tell, because it is difficult to project power over long distances, and a stronger power may concede when it doesn’t have a strong interest in a conflict.
The Greeks/Macedonians under Alexander beat a much larger Persian empire, principally through superior weaponry and tactics.
Hmmm. I just don’t see China as being afraid of potential sanctions from the Biden administration.
Surely there’s some truth to that? Independent of whether Russia is corrupt or not (it is!), and somewhat separate to the issue of who wants to be Ukrainian (Lviv) and who wants to be Russian (Crimea) and how that relates to self determination (however far that goes in that part of the world).
Yeah, I’m not sure how anyone could possibly say there isn’t any.
The actual reduction of trade with Russia in some areas shows that China’s at least a little concerned about some of this stuff. Plus these five Chinese firms actually were sanctioned by the Biden administration, so….?
I guess what I mean is something more like “what do ‘sanctions’ even mean to the Biden regime?” That they’re still using Russia as a cutout for enabling Iran doesn’t seem to be in the spirit of “sanctions.”
Perhaps they’re trying to find a climb down, having found that sanctions which push the other half of the West into decline may be to the US’ disadvantage? I mean wouldn’t you? I would.
Re: Iran……meh. I know they’re supposed to be wild eyed crazy people who thirst only for kaffir blood regardless of the consequences, but India is the Ur Kaffir nation and the Indian state has had excellent relations with the Islamic Republic from 1979, and there is no fear of an Iranian Bomb in India. I frankly think that Trump crashed the JCPOA because it was a real Obama achievement, even if crashing it harmed concrete American foreign policy (as opposed to domestic electioneering) interests, but that is jmnsho.
I think that the Chinese are afraid not of US sanctions, but sanctions by American companies. When McDonalds pulled out of Russia to the cheers of Americans, that shocked China. If China attacks Taiwan, wait and see how many American companies continue to do business with China.
Russia has oil and gas that there is a huge demand for. But China relies on trade and making things for others.
I have had a series of Apple iPhones, Apple Watches and Apple iPads. They are all made in China. But if China attacks Taiwan, I am not going to buy anything from Apple that is made in China. Consumer boycotts scare the bleep out of China.
Ratz. I was hoping to find out what wasn’t so clear yesterday that is clear today, and what isn’t clear today that will be clearer tomorrow.
Wut?
The problem is American companies are dependent on China. There’s not a chance any of them will unhook themselves from China. The Biden administration is never going to force that issue because Your President is one of their puppets.
Why are you buying them now?
What I mean is, isn’t China’s use of slave labor already enough for boycotts?
The Russians do have a massive superiority in in numbers of tubes. Truly massive. But the Russian artillery has a much shorter range and is an order of magnitude less accurate. So they need that numeric superiority over the Ukrainians to win an artillery duel. In a set piece battle where the Russians can choose the range and have sufficient ammunition – such as a creeping advance in the Donbas, they can crush the Ukrainians to dust.
But that depends on having sufficient ammo to pull that off. In the Donbas they were close to their source of supplies and conducting a set piece battle. In Kherson they are at the end of a long supply line that runs through Crimea. And the Ukrainians have been assiduously chopping up that supply line. Those are the bridges that have been knocked out – the ones used to supply Kherson. Can they get ammo to Kherson without those bridges? Maybe. But that probably triples the length of the trip. Which puts more strain on the trucks- which have proved unreliable. (Remember all those stuck supply trucks in the war’s opening days?) So, no. They are not going to have Donbas-scale artillery barrages.
Besides, I doubt this will be set piece. If it comes to mobile warfare, inaccurate artillery is of limited use, especially if it is outranged and the opponent has artillery that is two orders of magnitude more accurate. You fire. They counterbattery. You lose some guns. They lose none (because you cannot reach them).
It’s hard to determine the numbers the Ukrainians really have. But however many they do have of course they are going to insist they need more. Because more is always better. Unless it is more jezails against the Maxim gun. As Hilaire Belloc put it in The Modern Traveller, “Whatever happens we have got / The Maxim gun and they have not.”
So, which chick have you seen in Maxim (magazine) that had the best guns (muscles)?
Sorry. Hadda.
I think only $30 B of the approved money and equipment has been spent. Mostly Ukraine got old equipment and the money is used to buy new and better stuff for the US and other NATO members. I’d guess the true value of items sent to Ukraine is less than $10B.
The number Carol was trying to think of for Ukraine was $40 billion. The $80 billion was for the IRS. It should have been the other way around. No, on second thought we would be better off if the whole $120 billion went to Ukraine, and the sooner it was beyond Biden’s reach the better.
What about those who say that sending $ to Ukraine is what puts it in Biden’s reach?
Most of the funds aren’t being sent to Ukraine, they’re being spent inside the US to make weapons ‘for Ukraine’ – with some delivery dates 3 years from now.
Might have worked at one time, but I don’t think it would work now. There are some bad actors in Ukraine who might be willing to work out something that involves 10% for the big guy, but there are a lot of patriotic Ukrainians who will call out people who diminish the war effort. So it would be hard in the current environment. Russians of course will spread the word that it’s happening, and why shouldn’t they? They’re like Democrats. If you want to know what they’re doing, look at what they’re accusing the opposition of doing.
If I hear about Hunter getting more $80K/month consultant jobs in Ukraine, though, I might have to eat my words.
Do you have some documentation for that?
Seems more likely it’s being used to pay for replacement of weapons that are already sent.
Bit dated, but
https://stephensemler.substack.com/p/a-breakdown-of-the-ukraine-aid-bill
https://jacobin.com/2022/05/ukraine-aid-bill-congress-biden-military-health
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-military-aid-weapons-front-lines/
Edited to add: also
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/24/joe-biden-ukraine-military-aid-zelenskiy
From which:
Thank you. That includes some of the kind of information I was looking for. Perun on YouTube had given an overview of the aid package, but this provides more detail.
BTW, I was amused by this paragraph:
The writer seems tos think that military escalation and conflict resolution are two different things, and that weapons and public well-being are also two different things.
Well, they aren’t necessarily the same thing. But in this instance I think the US maintaining (somehow, how?) the US dollar’s current position as global reserve currency is vital to US public’s well-being. However it goes in Ukraine I think that’ll be difficult at this point.
Yes, but it’s good to see that despite all the delays and circuitous routes involved in sending aid to Ukraine, this writer at least things there will be military escalation, which is what is needed for the Ukrainians to drive the Russians out of their country.
Or to keep them fighting there indefinitely. Also an option. There may be others as well.
I don’t think we have the ability to keep them fighting there indefinitely unless they feel they need to resist the Russian invasion indefinitely.
You are right – I goofed on the number. 40 billion is the number I should have been thinking of.
But as far as monies sent to the Ukraine being beyond Biden’s reach: I hope you are correct, but in the past that doesn’t seem to be the way it worked out.
I think that anyone who believes Biden willingly supports the Ukraine is an optimistic fool. Prior to the war, Biden was signaling his paymaster Putin the US would stand by and do nothing if Russia annexed Donbas and Luhansk.
Biden’s paymaster is not Putin. It is the Great Reset Guys. The Great Reset to take over needs chaos and mass deprivation which it is getting in spades.
It’s the Ukrainians who have been shelling civilians indiscriminately. The CIA propaganda isn’t true. The Russians have fired more precision weapons in the last month than the Americans have since the first Gulf War. And the Russians have destroyed many more depots than the Ukrainians/Nato contractors have.
Great Comment. I fear for the Ukrainian people. They do not deserve this. They are pawns in a greater struggle. As much as I think the Totalitarian Zelensky is a villain here, he is not the guy driving the bus. Our Supreme Leader Daddy Dearest Joe and Puppetmasters are. But Zelensky’s repugnant tactics are likely to kill more Ukainaians when Putin finally gets pissed and puts the hammer down.
You seem to suggest that the Ukrainians have artillery superiority over the Russians. My impression is that the Russians have overwhelming superiority, about 15:1. If I recall correctly, this is what the Ukrainians said in early June, when they were begging for more weapons — which they didn’t get. They asked for 3oo rocket launchers, and it appears that they got 15.
Jerry, I think you are correct although I think as you say you can’t believe either side now. BTW, do any of you believe the Joint Chiefs anymore?
Kedavis:
Also Biden’s fault, and Putin’s and somewhat parts of Western Europe (those that foolishly decided to trust Russia for energy), but absolutely not Ukraine’s.
Oh absolutely. But one should ask why was our military so unprepared for this war? Why wasn’t Ukraine given the quality artillery and other lethal stuff before the war so maybe Putin would have thought twice before invading?It’s not like they couldn’t see this thing coming? But then again when Ukraine really needed the aid – right in the beginning – why did it take the Democrat controlled Congress over a month to vote for some aid?And why five months later hasn’t it arrived? One could only say that this “let’s help Ukraine win this war” thingie is a just a charade; a con in a much greater game.
Kozak: Sad how “conservatives” have swallowed all the agitprop coming out of Moscow. Makes me sick. Makes me start to question a lot of things around here.
None of the “agitprop” on either side should be wholly believed now. But that is not the point. Yes, the average Ukraine is taking it on the chin big time, I get it, but what really “makes me sick” is what is happening to the whole world. The devastation is incredible.
Chinese civil war. Mao was massively outnumbered, etc.
Russia abruptly cuts off France’s gas line…
https://www.dailyfetched.com/russia-cuts-off-gas-supply-to-france-as-country-faces-energy-disaster/