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Decision Time in Ukraine
In the Land of Confusion podcast covering the six-month anniversary of the start of the Ukraine War, I stated that the behavior of the Ukrainians over the last six weeks struck me as consistent with their shaping the battlefield for an offensive around Kherson. The types of strikes that Ukraine had been making were designed to isolate Russian forces in Kherson by cutting supply routes, destroying ammo and fuel dumps, and forcing the Russian aircraft out of Crimea. I thought it would start in September, likely mid-September.
It appears I was off by a week or two. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources are reporting that such an offensive has begun. At this point, both sides are declaring they are winning. That, too, is to be expected.
I will make another prediction: This offensive probably means the war will end within the next ten weeks. I am not predicting who will win — just that this battle will likely settle the war. If the Ukrainians succeed, the Russians will be playing the British at Yorktown. If the Russians succeed in stopping the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians will be playing the Germans in the Ardennes. In short, the loser will lack the military assets to continue the war.
We will know better in a week who the likely winner is.
Published in Military
Yes, that’s true. And with power comes responsibility.
But people are human, and fallible. Meanwhile, I would point out that to the extent the US has those kinds of problems, it’s likely because of people who want the US to be MORE LIKE Iran, not LESS like it.
Doesn’t mean we can’t (eventually) take responsibility for our actions.
The US overthrew a democratically elected Government in Iran because the US wanted to be more like Iran?
Did the US also embargo Cuba because the US wanted to be more like Cuba?
It’s a fascinating way to look at things and one, I confess, that had not so far occurred to me. Every day something new.
Not wanted, at least not nationally. But those people who want to be that way.
And, What do you think Iran does in places like Lebanon?
It acts like…..America?
The histories don’t quite align. Prior to 1906, Iran was an absolute monarchy. From 1906 to 1979, Iran was a constitutional monarchy with a nominal parliamentary system.
And the moment that parliamentary system acted with agency in the interests of the country there was a coup and it went back to nominal. Iow for the vast amount of time between 1906 and 1979 Iran was as democratic as North Korea :-(
Lebanon is actually democratic, but it’s utterly hamstrung by a weak state and an unwritten ‘agreement’ that divvies up Government posts according to religious confession based on some assumed census numbers. Iran supports one of the groups there – which is elected by Lebanon’s Shias (whose proportion of the population remains a mystery – their share of seats is not indicative).
I don’t know that that’s as indicative as you seem to think. Autocratic rule has a long history there, and it’s quite feasible that something else would have stopped it even if you think the CIA was actually the cause not just an assistant. I think also of Arafat, who didn’t dare actually make peace with Israel because he knew that he would be dead if he did.
Just wiki, but:
In fifty years maybe there’ll be a similar release of documents about Maidan?
It’s also possible that whoever the CIA was supporting, just got there first. If I wanted to support the CIA in that, I might argue that sure, our guy was bad, but those others who were going to overthrow the government were far worse!
Well, that’s certainly taking responsibility by arguing hypotheticals. Okay.
Like Commander Sinclair and Captain Sheridan both said, “It’s an imperfect world.”
We also end up voting for either Trump or Biden for president. Jesus is not on the ballot.
This is why the Ukrainian War will not be over soon. Our Supreme Leader Daddy Dearest Joe and the Faux Conservative Boris Johnson’s puppet masters at the World Economic Forum don’t want it over soon. End of Story.
Excerpted from Zero Hedge
‘Western Allies Led by UK’s Boris Johnson Sabotaged Tentative Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal … In April.”
“There’s mounting evidence that the war in Ukraine could have been over by this point, but key Western backers of Kiev sought to sabotage the potential for peaceful settlement through negotiations. That’s precisely what regional Ukrainian media reports concluded as early as May, soon after the UK’s Boris Johnson showed up in the capital on a “surprise” visit to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time the month prior
This is what a bombshell story in Ukrainska Pravda said at the time, but which was almost completely ignored in Western mainstream media:
According Ukrainska Pravda sources close to Zelenskyy, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson, who appeared in the capital almost without warning, brought two simple messages. The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured, not negotiated with.
And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they [the UK and US] are not. Johnson’s position was that the collective West, which back in February had suggested Zelenskyy should surrender and flee, now felt that Putin was not really as powerful as they had previously imagined, and that here was a chance to “press him.””
It’s obvious there is no one in the Biden Administration ( who Senile Joe? Anthony Blinken? Gen. Milley?) who could have made a persuasive case to scuttle this tentative deal so the job had to fall to Boris who is a tried and true WEF guy. What Boris did to the UK is unthinkable. The UK is now being pummeled by astronomical energy and food prices which are going to ruin the UK economy, but that was the plan from beginning, wan’t it? Thank you, Klaus, Georgie and Billie!
Also for those clowns who still think the Ukraine is winning this War; What nation shells a fragile Nuclear Power Plant on it’s own soil? What nation uses it’s own citizens as Human Shields? What nation shoots at it’s own civilians who are trying to flee the fighting? What nation shells territory as it is doing in Crimea that still has Ukrainian citizens? A desperate nation that is losing the war- that’s who.
I think Zero Hedge is a little over the top, but it does mystify me that attempts at negotiation were scuttled by the West. (The U.S. may not have been involved directly — although they probably were — but that was about the time that members of Congress started talking about it as “our” war and how “we” were going to fight to the last Ukrainian.)
Yes, it could have been over long ago.
Why? Wars = $$$.
and a little pro-Russian. Maybe they are offended that Ukrainians refer to Russians as “orcs”. I don’t know the history with that. Maybe it is some kind of neo-Nazi LARPing thing. Dehumanizing language is always a concern.
As opposed to chinks? gooks? Charlie? etc.
It certainly could have, if Obama/Biden had succeeded in getting Ukraine to succumb to the Minsk agreements. Then Russia would have conquered Ukraine without a fight. It would have been over.
Yes, wars are expensive, for both the winners and the losers.
Calling people clowns in such a tone of voice sounds like a winner?
If you, the taxpayer, are incurring an expense – say procuring arms – then it’s likely that someone is making a profit. If they in turn make donations to your elected representatives, then said reps have a conflict of interest. The point is the expenses and profits aren’t evenly spread across the winning nation.
No, they never are. Nor are the deaths evenly spread out. Do you think it could be otherwise?
Being a little more clear eyed about everybody’s motivations couldn’t hurt.
Some people confuse smears with clarity.
How was the expression “Citation” not a clue as to what material was from Consortium News?
Ukraine Merges Nazis and Islamists
July 7, 2015
Exclusive: Ukraine’s post-coup regime is now melding neo-Nazi storm troopers with Islamic militants called “brothers” of the hyper-violent Islamic State stirring up a hellish “death squad” brew to kill ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine, on Russia’s border, reports Robert Parry.
By Robert Parry
In a curiously upbeat account, The New York Times reports that Islamic militants have joined with Ukraine’s far-right and neo-Nazi battalions to fight ethnic Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine. It appears that no combination of violent extremists is too wretched to celebrate as long as they’re killing Russ-kies.
The article by Andrew E. Kramer reports that there are now three Islamic battalions “deployed to the hottest zones,” such as around the port city of Mariupol. One of the battalions is headed by a former Chechen warlord who goes by the name “Muslim,” …
Full article can be found at:
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/07/07/ukraine-merges-nazis-and-islamists/
The thing about military escalation and conflict resolution that separates one from the other is that military escalation almost immediately revs up the USA’s Congressional might to start the printing presses at US Treasury such that lots of money will go into weaponry, satellites, defoliants and other necessities of war. At that point, the Ruling Class becomes entrenched in keeping the conflict going.
Sure, conflict resolution will occur as a form of window dressing that this war or that one is not about profits.
But since WWII ended, profit is exactly what our wars have been about. Otherwise someone needs to explain to me how it was we ended the European theater of WWII on June 6th 1944, and defeated the Germans by May of 1945, due to a clear game plan, but lacked any sort of game plan for Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan.
Not only did we defeat Germany in 1945, the USA put into practice a very successful re-hab program for the defeated nation.
Things going swimmingly for the Russians in Kherson:
contract soldiers getting drunk & shooting FSB officers, would be colonists fleeing back to Russia…….
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2022/08/31/three-fsb-officers-walk-into-a-bar-and-get-shot-by-drunk-russian-soldiers-n493737
Saw that. Does not bespeak high morale or discipline in my view. I might be wrong though. I’ve been assured this is all Russian disinformation to suck the Ukrainians into launching a counteroffensive.
I wonder how the disinformation sources explain all the sudden falls out of windows?Putin has been murdering any possible opponents as he is tightening his grip on power. Russian hospitals are very dangerous, numerous healthcare providers who spoke out about the poor response to COVID have “fallen” out of windows, as have oligarchs who are critical of the invasion of Ukraine :
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-oil-oligarch-dies-6-094741834.html
https://www.thearticle.com/why-are-russian-doctors-falling-out-of-windows
https://www.polygraph.info/a/russia-suspicious-deaths-from-falling-out-window-/29178628.html
https://www.npr.org/2018/04/21/604497554/why-do-russian-journalists-keep-falling
I don’t even know what it means to say that a war is “about” profits and that another is not. Some people profit in all wars, some legitimately and some not. Wars are about a lot of things, including profit.