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Food for Thought on Polling
A friend of mine sent me this link to a National Review article on polling. Two key takeaways from the article:
Another factor, is that “conservatives are less likely to participate in polls in general,” he says. “We see a five-to-one refusal rate among conservatives.” That means “you’ve got to work very hard to get a fair representation of conservatives, when you do any kind of a survey.”
And this:
Published in ElectionsOne problem with weighting is that Republicans “who don’t like Trump can’t wait to answer a poll,” he says. “So immediately, within the 22 percent, they’ve probably overrepresented it, the anti-Trump Republicans, the Never Trumper types. Well, when you weight that up from 22 to 35, now you have skewed an already bad representation sample. So that’s kind of inherently how they can be so off.”
Easy enough to fix: generate a proper Caller ID.
That is not my problem.
Mine goes like this:
Me: Hello, this is Vince
Pollster: **Says something about a poll I barely hear over kid noises**
Me: Sorry, no. Bye now.
I’ve repeated this at least three times so far this year.
Bryan –
Great link, especially the actual Claremont wargame report itself. Was like reading a Tom Clancy novel in short form!
The problem with R’s not participating in polls is that it gives ammunition to the D’s in any election dispute.
It could end up being your problem, depending on what information was intended to be passed to you, or the reverse.
How is your spouse or child or whatever, supposed to “generate a proper Caller ID” from someone else’s phone that they have to use to try and let you know that they crashed, or whatever?
I have no problem with answering polls, if they call me. I have always been a sucker for marketing anyway. If asked, I say I am voting (have already voted) for Trump. But I have not been polled this year, and do not expect to be.
My pet peeve is calls where the Caller ID only lists a city and a phone number. I figured out that those calls tend to be from Scientologists for Ray, and I never, ever answer them.
My financial advisor, who I have spoken to a few times, calls from an 800-number, no name. “800 Service” calls are normally marketing, but I know which one is hers, and I know that she only calls when we have an appointment.
Thanks!
How do you interpret this paragraph out of the Claremont wargame report?
“Should the results be undetermined through Jan. 20, Inauguration Day, the Succession Act would suggest that the Speaker of the House would become President. Should the results be undetermined through Jan. 20, Inauguration Day, the Succession Act would suggest that the Speaker of the House would become acting President until one is determined and, if the House cannot decide, then elevating the Vice President, even if selected out of the Senate”
The first sentence declares the Speaker of The House would become the US President. Period. Then in the second sentence it is stated that the Speaker of the House becomes the President until one is determined. Then it is stated if the House cannot decide, they will elevate the Vice President… Which Vice President? If they cannot decide which party won the Oval Office how could they decide on the VP?
Not sure, but with Pelosi as Pres, it won’t matter much.
The states have poll result certification deadlines and governors will meet them regardless of how corrupt the count and the courts will not delay the inauguration unless the sweet meteor of death takes the matter out of their hands. Judges will choose the appearance of order over the integrity of the election.
If the House refuses to certify, they have all the power.
We check voicemail and delete the messages right after listening. Most spammer, scammers, and robocalls hang up the moment they hear the recording.
We bought a gadget that came pre-programmed with known spam numbers. It also has a big red button you can hit to enter whatever number calls into the system. Works pretty well.
I would think the communications companies could come up with a way to prevent spoofing.
Voicemail. If I don’t answer the phone but there is a message I listen to it immediately.
We have one, too, but it is no longer useful because the spammers don’t use the same number twice. They just generate a new random 4-digit number at the end of a plausible area code and prefix.
We signed up with Nomorobo on Comcast, and now the spam calls just ring once, say “Incoming Call,” and then stop. For calls that get through the filter and we don’t recognize the name/number, the caller can just leave a message. Most don’t.
There’s been some work in that area recently, but I don’t know how far developed it is.
I’ve even bad “spoofed” calls from my own number. What would happen if I blocked it?
My favorite is when Caller ID says it’s from “0-000-000-0000” . . .
I get that sometimes when I’m being called back by animal control or police.
Interesting . . .
They don’t want you knowing individual officers’ direct phone numbers.
That also means that, even if they leave a message, you CAN’T call them back. Unless they leave the direct number too, which they usually don’t.
Exactly.
True, but if I let it go to message I lose the ability to block the number manually. And they’ll just keep calling from the same number until I pick up and block it.
None of the calls we have received in the last 9 months have come from the same number. The scammers calling you are not very sophisticated.
I can’t tell you how many times I have received a VM that goes something like this:
Hi Annie. This doctor’s office/insurance company/bureaucracy. We’re returning your call about rescheduling/sorting out recent foul-up/whatever. Sorry I missed you.
And that’s it. No name. No phone number. So you call back, and whomever answers the telephone has no idea what you’re talking about and it’s back to first base. The bigger the bureaucracy/office, the less likely to get return call information on the VM.
I was helping my daughter sort out an Obamacare nightmare and it went like this for days. Constant phone calls, then return phone calls with no info. Meanwhile I’m yelling at her – Answer Your D*** Phone!
We finally got it sorted on a marathon two-hour phone call with a woman named Robin. Who was delightful and helpful. She was unable to provide her last name for security purposes. Regardless, she’s in my Rosary book and gets prayed for every Wednesday. By the time the call was over I was crying, my daughter was crying, and I think Robin shed a tear when I said we’d pray for her in gratitude.
Especially in medical calls they have rules against leaving “too much” information in case someone else hears it and that means they’ve violated HIPAA. At least technically, and that can be all that matters. Indeed, just on the off chance that they got the wrong number, arguably they can’t leave ANY identifying information.