Tag: Polling

Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Now Here’s an Interesting Poll

 

In most of the major polls conducted, just about any Democrat candidate beats Trump. According to Quinnipiac, Trump even loses to Socialist Bernie Sanders in Texas. Think about that for a second. Texas. Austin, Texas, maybe. But all of Texas? It raises questions on the methodology of the polling that’s being done. And after all, we all know how accurate the polling was in the 2016 election…until the final poll came in on Election Night…where previous polling in some states was definitely called into question. 

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Reading the Presidential Tea Leaves

 

Do the polls have you worried? Are you fretting about the direction of the country? If so, take a deeeeeep breath and exhale and say to yourself over and over again the word “February.”

Because in February of 2016 this what you were hearing:

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Member Post

 

The Democrats are no more destined to ride an arc of history to final and permanent rule than is the liberal democratic order to persist after the prematurely proclaimed end of history. There is no socialist utopia or dystopia waiting to be finally realized. At the same time, as President Trump realizes, action in one […]

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(This originally appeared at my site on writing.com on Oct. 22). Should most political polling in 2018 be ignored? More

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America welcome a new Axios/Survey Monkey poll showing five incumbent Senate Democrats losing to specific or unnamed Republicans right now and a few others barely ahead. They also rip California for brazenly impeding efforts of federal immigration officials and wonder where all the liberal love […]

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America look at a bunch of new polling that shows America sharply divided on banning “assault weapons,” in large agreement on mental illness needing to be addressed, and a majority now liking the tax cuts. They also rip the Pennsylvania Supreme Court for redrawing the […]

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Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Quote of the Day: Apples and Oranges

 

“Do I look like I have stupid written all over my face?” – Ernest P. Worrell

In the case of Jim Varney’s iconic character, well, yeah, that’s exactly what he looked like. But what about the rest of us? We’re constantly being told stories by the government, the media and corporations that would strain the credulity of a five-year-old.

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Just saw this and thought it was interesting how close some of the approval numbers are between Obama and Trump. I must note, however, that Obama was much more popular in the beginning of his first term though not at the start of his second. You can see the number here for Trump. And here […]

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. What’s the future of polling?

 

When so many polls got it so wrong this past November, is polling dead as we know it? We sit down with Kristen Anderson, co-host of the Pollsters podcast, to understand exactly what went wrong and how pollsters are adapting to the changing political landscape.

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. A Conversation with Mollie Hemingway

 

Ricochet’s own Mollie Hemingway, Senior Editor at the Federalist, joins us at Whiskey Politics on the Weekly Standard cruise to discuss the Democrats post-election freak out, political correctness, academia, the current state of the media, polling, and fake news. Mollie suggests what the Trump administration should focus on in the first 100 days and answers the most asked question from Ricochet members.

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That’s what one political science professor in Great Britain says: Pollsters often struggle to predict a Tory majority in referendums and elections because Conservative voters are busier and far more difficult to get hold of, eminent political scientist John Curtice has said. More

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Here’s another interesting exit poll result. If you slice the electorate into “White Evangelical or Born-Again Christians,” on the one hand, and “Everybody Else,” on the other, Trump’s success in 2016 is entirely explained by better performance among White Evangelicals. White Evangelicals were 26% of the electorate in 2008, 2012, and again in 2016. More

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Trump has often criticized polls for understating his support. He attributes this to what’s known (by others, not him, I’m sure) as social desirability bias. His hypothesis is that supporting Trump is a socially undesirable response which people will not want to offer in a survey, especially when they’re speaking to a live interviewer. It’s […]

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. The Good News and Bad News in Gary Johnson’s Polls

 
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Gary Johnson’s campaign for President has lately had a mix of bad and good news in the polls — more on that in a moment — but the poll on the front page of yesterday’s Washington Post definitely is one he will be talking about. Using SurveyMonkey online methodology, the survey measured voter opinion in each of the 50 states over the past month. And it finds the Libertarian candidate to be a serious factor in the race.

The headline finding for Johnson is that he reaches 15 percent of the vote or better in 15 states, and 10 percent or better in 42 states, that is, all but eight. The states where he makes the strongest showing are his own New Mexico (25 percent); Utah (23 percent); Alaska, Idaho, and South Dakota (19 percent); Kansas (17 percent); Colorado, Iowa, North Dakota, and Washington (16 percent); and Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, Rhode Island, and Wyoming (15 percent).

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Coalition Politics and the Respect Gap

 

handshake-respectEconomist Bryan Caplan sought to explain why so few Asian Americans support the Republican Party, despite their seemingly aligned philosophies. Asians would seem to be natural Republicans, as they tend to be highly entrepreneurial and have socially conservative traits, including low rates of single motherhood (lower than whites, actually). Yet, despite this, Asians vote for Democrats in higher proportions than even Latinos.

In an earlier most, Caplan looked to the 2012 Presidential Election for examples of what he calls “the Respect Motive.” In that election, Romney won the following demographics: whites, people with income > $50k, whites under 30, white women, and independents. Meanwhile President Obama won majorities of: non-whites, people with income < $50k, non-whites under 30, and non-white women. Caplan observes:

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. What Pollsters Worry About

 

I found this article really informative: Flashpoints in polling, by Pew. They cover many of the issues that have been debated in the wake of some significant recent pollster fumbles. Here are some of the highlights, with links to the research in question:

Contrary to claims that the decline of landlines has polling “teetering on the edge of disaster,” there is solid evidence that well-designed telephone polls are as accurate, if not more so, today than they were a generation ago.

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Let’s All Go to the Polling and Get Ourselves Some Facts

 

TrumpClinton_1458169673550_976759_ver1.0There’s been a lot of talk here about the candidates’ characters, legal challenges, personal outlooks towards out-groups, and so on. But, for a moment, let’s step back from emotion and look at something more concrete: polls. National and state polling are still getting their acts together — only Rasmussen is polling on a week-to-week basis for the general election — but we can get a sense of the trend lines to try to understand where the race currently is and how it might proceed from here.

(A few notes about the polls I’ll be citing, all of which are from Real Clear Politics. In 2008, RCP’s polling average was quite accurate, predicting a 7.6 percent popular vote victory for Barack Obama, who won by 7.3 percent. Despite our head-in-the-sand act four years later, RCP’s polling average correctly called the election, though not as accurately:Tthey projected that the president would win by a mere 0.7 percent; in actuality, he had a 3.9 percent advantage over Mitt Romney.)

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. December 2015 Ricochet Polling

 

For the most part, not much has changed from the previous month. Trump continues his rise among the Ricochetti, although it is still pretty small. Here are the top candidates from December:

1st choice all PORPOISE

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Last spring, I received a very long and quite interesting polling phone call. The caller wanted to know my nuanced position on a host of immigration issues. I was allowed to explain that my biggest concern with immigration was that, if we could not expect current law to be enforceable, there was no apparent reason […]

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Funding Is But Half the Question, Planned Parenthood

 
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Ken Wolter / Shutterstock.com

By now, you’ve heard that Americans oppose federal and state legislative efforts to defund Planned Parenthood. Americans, we are told, overwhelmingly believe that the world’s largest abortion business should continue to receive more than a half billion dollars in taxpayer money per year. After all:

No government shutdown over Planned Parenthood, Americans say
“Just over seven in 10 Americans say it’s more important for Congress to avoid a shutdown than to end federal funding for Planned Parenthood…”

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