Tag: Polling

Republican/Trump Voters Reject McConnell-Haley Narrative

 

Bill of Rights and TrumpSenate Minority Leader (again) Mitch McConnell and Nikki Haley badly miscalculated the American electorate, unless they are willing servants of Xi and the Thirty American Tyrants, furthering what Time proudly celebrated as a grand and good conspiracy against real, legitimate voters in their several states producing the wrong result again. To the extent the McConnell-Haley contingent succeed in clinging to control of the Republican Party, while the left asserts full control over the Democratic Party and the instruments of national power, they will hasten the end of the Republican Party, like the Whigs before them. President Trump and the portion of the real electorate that does not want a socialist America is signaling clearly that they intend to transform the Republican Party, rather than creating a new party from scratch. We are living in very interesting times.

Trump 2020 voters speak clearly:

Suffolk University, in collaboration with USA TODAY, conducts regular polling at the state and national level, along with special topic surveys. The first special topic poll for 2021 has already generated a series of articles and bold headlines. It is well worth your while to read the seven page questionnaire with answers. This is not dense print. It is a few easily read short questions and polling worker instructions, combined with tabulated responses. The instructions indicate that the survey should take six minutes to answer over the phone.

Join Host Joe Selvaggi and Harvard Professor Chase Harrison as they discuss polling methodology and what errors in 2020 reveal about voting during COVID-19 and changing attitudes toward pollsters.

Guest:
Chase Harrison is Associate Director of the Harvard Program on Survey Research and Preceptor in Survey Methods in the Department of Government. Chase served as Director of Research Computing Services and Principal Survey Methodologist at the Harvard Business School, where he was responsible for developing and maintaining core resources in the social sciences. As a survey researcher, Chase had designed, directed, and analyzed surveys in a variety of settings and with a variety of populations since 1991. He received his MA (Survey Research) and Ph.D. (Political Science) from the University of Connecticut.

Hubwonk Host Joe Selvaggi and Emerson Polling’s Spencer Kimball discuss the polling industry’s failure to reliably anticipate election results in 2020. Where were the largest errors, what may have been the reasons, and what should consumers of polling data consider when interpreting data?

Guest:
Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Assistant Professor, teaches Political and Sports Communication courses in both the undergraduate and graduate programs. He is the director of Emerson College Polling and an advisor for the Emerson Pre-Law Society and the Emerson College Polling Society. Kimball’s primary research focus is in Survey Methodology and the testing of data collection methods. His research has been published in top-tier journals and he has presented his work at conferences and workshops around the globe. He offers commentary for media outlets on his methodology and latest election polls, for MSNBC, Fox News, Harpers Magazine, The Wall Street Journal, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, the National Journal, and NPR.

Food for Thought on Polling

 

A friend of mine sent me this link to a National Review article on polling. Two key takeaways from the article:

Another factor, is that “conservatives are less likely to participate in polls in general,” he says. “We see a five-to-one refusal rate among conservatives.” That means “you’ve got to work very hard to get a fair representation of conservatives, when you do any kind of a survey.”

QoTD: Push Polls and the Wrong Answers

 

Hi Thomas, I’m Mercedes w/ For our Future WI. We’re conducting a survey and want to hear from you. Our first question is simple. With everything that’s going on right now, what’s the biggest issue facing you & your family right now?

Spammers texting me without even getting my name right. Or were you thinking less immediately than “right now?” Well, the intersection between what’s possible with digital technology and what kind of human interactions are fundamentally destructive (mass push polls for example) ranks reasonably high on my list of worries. Is that one of the options? Somehow I think you’ll have to tick the “other” box on your form.

Member Post

 

As a former consumer of public opinion polling for most of the 35 or so US House and Senate campaigns I had some affiliation with, I follow the industry pretty closely. To say it has “issues” is an understatement.   Polls are snapshots of public opinion over a specific period of time. And like the […]

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Get your first month free.

It’s all crazy today! Join Jim and Greg as we react to #MeToo activist Alyssa Milano suddenly finding a complicated gray area on assault allegations now that Joe Biden is one being accused. They also sigh as President Trump reportedly rejects polling data that suggests his coronavirus briefings could be hurting him politically and that he’s losing to Biden. And they recoil at the aggressive efforts to free prisoners under the pretense of virus mitigation.

Reading the Presidential Tea Leaves

 

Do the polls have you worried? Are you fretting about the direction of the country? If so, take a deeeeeep breath and exhale and say to yourself over and over again the word “February.”

Because in February of 2016 this what you were hearing:

Member Post

 

The Democrats are no more destined to ride an arc of history to final and permanent rule than is the liberal democratic order to persist after the prematurely proclaimed end of history. There is no socialist utopia or dystopia waiting to be finally realized. At the same time, as President Trump realizes, action in one […]

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Get your first month free.

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America welcome a new Axios/Survey Monkey poll showing five incumbent Senate Democrats losing to specific or unnamed Republicans right now and a few others barely ahead. They also rip California for brazenly impeding efforts of federal immigration officials and wonder where all the liberal love for states’ rights was when Arizona wanted to enforce federal laws when the federal government refused to do it. And they swat down a Washington Post columnist for suggesting the U.S. pursue a socialist system and dig deeper into why so many people are not satisfied with the way things are going right now.

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America look at a bunch of new polling that shows America sharply divided on banning “assault weapons,” in large agreement on mental illness needing to be addressed, and a majority now liking the tax cuts. They also rip the Pennsylvania Supreme Court for redrawing the congressional map of the state, ignoring the will of the people through their elected representatives and making the map much more favorable to their Democratic friends. And they shudder as fears grow that North Korea may punish their Olympic athletes for failing to medal at the Winter Olympics.

Quote of the Day: Apples and Oranges

 

“Do I look like I have stupid written all over my face?” – Ernest P. Worrell

In the case of Jim Varney’s iconic character, well, yeah, that’s exactly what he looked like. But what about the rest of us? We’re constantly being told stories by the government, the media and corporations that would strain the credulity of a five-year-old.

Apple is currently experiencing a bit of a public relations problem after being forced to admit that they have been intentionally slowing down the older models of their phones. Of course, they would never do something like that to try and promote the sales of newer models. No, it was done solely because as the lithium ion batteries become older and no longer perform at peak efficiency, the performance must be degraded to maintain full functionality. They really had no choice. It’s not as if they could have made that information public from the beginning, and offered replacement batteries at a reasonable price.

Member Post

 

Just saw this and thought it was interesting how close some of the approval numbers are between Obama and Trump. I must note, however, that Obama was much more popular in the beginning of his first term though not at the start of his second. You can see the number here for Trump. And here […]

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Get your first month free.

When so many polls got it so wrong this past November, is polling dead as we know it? We sit down with Kristen Anderson, co-host of the Pollsters podcast, to understand exactly what went wrong and how pollsters are adapting to the changing political landscape.

A Conversation with Mollie Hemingway

 

Ricochet’s own Mollie Hemingway, Senior Editor at the Federalist, joins us at Whiskey Politics on the Weekly Standard cruise to discuss the Democrats post-election freak out, political correctness, academia, the current state of the media, polling, and fake news. Mollie suggests what the Trump administration should focus on in the first 100 days and answers the most asked question from Ricochet members.

Member Post

 

That’s what one political science professor in Great Britain says: Pollsters often struggle to predict a Tory majority in referendums and elections because Conservative voters are busier and far more difficult to get hold of, eminent political scientist John Curtice has said. Preview Open

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Get your first month free.

Member Post

 

Here’s another interesting exit poll result. If you slice the electorate into “White Evangelical or Born-Again Christians,” on the one hand, and “Everybody Else,” on the other, Trump’s success in 2016 is entirely explained by better performance among White Evangelicals. White Evangelicals were 26% of the electorate in 2008, 2012, and again in 2016. Preview […]

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Get your first month free.

Member Post

 

Trump has often criticized polls for understating his support. He attributes this to what’s known (by others, not him, I’m sure) as social desirability bias. His hypothesis is that supporting Trump is a socially undesirable response which people will not want to offer in a survey, especially when they’re speaking to a live interviewer. It’s […]

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Get your first month free.

The Good News and Bad News in Gary Johnson’s Polls

 
Click to expand.
Click to expand.

Gary Johnson’s campaign for President has lately had a mix of bad and good news in the polls — more on that in a moment — but the poll on the front page of yesterday’s Washington Post definitely is one he will be talking about. Using SurveyMonkey online methodology, the survey measured voter opinion in each of the 50 states over the past month. And it finds the Libertarian candidate to be a serious factor in the race.

The headline finding for Johnson is that he reaches 15 percent of the vote or better in 15 states, and 10 percent or better in 42 states, that is, all but eight. The states where he makes the strongest showing are his own New Mexico (25 percent); Utah (23 percent); Alaska, Idaho, and South Dakota (19 percent); Kansas (17 percent); Colorado, Iowa, North Dakota, and Washington (16 percent); and Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, Rhode Island, and Wyoming (15 percent).