Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Food for Thought on Polling

 

A friend of mine sent me this link to a National Review article on polling. Two key takeaways from the article:

Another factor, is that “conservatives are less likely to participate in polls in general,” he says. “We see a five-to-one refusal rate among conservatives.” That means “you’ve got to work very hard to get a fair representation of conservatives, when you do any kind of a survey.”

And this:

One problem with weighting is that Republicans “who don’t like Trump can’t wait to answer a poll,” he says. “So immediately, within the 22 percent, they’ve probably overrepresented it, the anti-Trump Republicans, the Never Trumper types. Well, when you weight that up from 22 to 35, now you have skewed an already bad representation sample. So that’s kind of inherently how they can be so off.”

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  1. Susan Quinn Contributor

    His approach to polling makes sense to me! And also explains why other kinds of polls are deficient. Thanks, Stad.

    • #1
    • October 19, 2020, at 8:59 AM PDT
    • 9 likes
  2. Max Ledoux Admin

    It is true, the two polls I have ever taken (in my entire life) started like this:

    **Brrrrrrrngggggggg***

    Me: Hello?

    Pollster: Hi, I’m a pollster, could you answer a few questions? It will take 25-30 minutes.

    Me: Let’s do this. I work from home, have no children, and would crawl through a pit of snakes to vote for Trump

    • #2
    • October 19, 2020, at 9:15 AM PDT
    • 22 likes
  3. EB Thatcher

    From his lips to you-know-who’s ear.

    • #3
    • October 19, 2020, at 9:28 AM PDT
    • 7 likes
  4. Hang On Member
    Hang OnJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Red Eagle Politics has been talking about this for months and showing alternative data looking at early voting, Trafalgar, new voter registration and other metrics. He’s a college student from Michigan. Here is his latest video Biden Claims the Race is Close:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAVmrVpL_Wo

    And his channel on youtube where he has been asserting the claims for several months:

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0SMGmU6X9zJBGCGarr7ODQ

    • #4
    • October 19, 2020, at 9:58 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  5. katievs Member
    katievsJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I almost can’t bring myself to click on an NRO link these days. Me. A once-Never-Trumper.

    • #5
    • October 19, 2020, at 10:11 AM PDT
    • 18 likes
  6. JustmeinAZ Member

    I think he’s right about conservatives and answering polls. I always just hang up because I presume the questions will be loaded.

    • #6
    • October 19, 2020, at 10:32 AM PDT
    • 11 likes
  7. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member

    Max Ledoux (View Comment):

    It is true, the two polls I have ever taken (in my entire life) started like this:

    **Brrrrrrrngggggggg***

    Me: Hello?

    Pollster: Hi, I’m a pollster, could you answer a few questions? It will take 25-30 minutes.

    Me: Let’s do this. I work from home, have no children, and would crawl through a pit of snakes to vote for Trump

    For me it goes:

    Me: Hello?

    Pollster: Hi, I’m a pollster, could you answer a few questions? It will take 25-30 minutes.

    Me: Hey, go ahead and lose this number, m’kay? That’d be super. (click)

    • #7
    • October 19, 2020, at 10:48 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  8. Hang On Member
    Hang OnJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Max Ledoux (View Comment):

    It is true, the two polls I have ever taken (in my entire life) started like this:

    **Brrrrrrrngggggggg***

    Me: Hello?

    Pollster: Hi, I’m a pollster, could you answer a few questions? It will take 25-30 minutes.

    Me: Let’s do this. I work from home, have no children, and would crawl through a pit of snakes to vote for Trump

    For me it goes:

    Me: Hello?

    Pollster: Hi, I’m a pollster, could you answer a few questions? It will take 25-30 minutes.

    Me: Hey, go ahead and lose this number, m’kay? That’d be super. (click)

    Really confused. You answer your phone if you don’t know who’s calling you?

    • #8
    • October 19, 2020, at 12:08 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  9. JustmeinAZ Member

    Hang On (View Comment):
    Really confused. You answer your phone if you don’t know who’s calling you?

    I do because too many medical offices now are not identified on caller ID. I once blocked my PCP because I didn’t recognize the number and they had to send me snail mail to communicate. Same with my mail-order pharmacies.

     

    • #9
    • October 19, 2020, at 12:23 PM PDT
    • 11 likes
  10. Hartmann von Aue Member

    Dratted paywall. I already hit my four free articles. 

    • #10
    • October 19, 2020, at 12:41 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  11. WI Con Member
    WI ConJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I’m guessing every polling firm has that guy from AZ, Gary(?) on speed dial.

    • #11
    • October 19, 2020, at 12:49 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  12. kedavis Member

    People who only answer calls from numbers they know, are going to miss calls from hospitals where a relative has been admitted or possibly died…

    They’ll miss calls from people they know who had to use someone else’s phone for some reason…

    All kinds of important stuff.

    About the only calls I just ignore, are those where I can see that some scammer is pretending to use a number similar to mine, in the hopes that I’ll believe it’s someone in my area… I might still call them back, though, to verify that it was a spoof call. “We’re sorry, the number you are calling is not in service. Please check the number and try again.”

    • #12
    • October 19, 2020, at 12:51 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  13. Stad Thatcher
    Stad

    JustmeinAZ (View Comment):
    I once blocked my PCP because I didn’t recognize the number

    Guess it’s hard to get good PCP these days . . .

    • #13
    • October 19, 2020, at 12:54 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  14. Sisyphus Coolidge
    SisyphusJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    kedavis (View Comment):

    People who only answer calls from numbers they know, are going to miss calls from hospitals where a relative has been admitted or possibly died…

    They’ll miss calls from people they know who had to use someone else’s phone for some reason…

    All kinds of important stuff.

    About the only calls I just ignore, are those where I can see that some scammer is pretending to use a number similar to mine, in the hopes that I’ll believe it’s someone in my area… I might still call them back, though, to verify that it was a spoof call. “We’re sorry, the number you are calling is not in service. Please check the number and try again.”

    That’s why we have voicemail.

    • #14
    • October 19, 2020, at 12:57 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  15. JustmeinAZ Member

    Stad (View Comment):

    JustmeinAZ (View Comment):
    I once blocked my PCP because I didn’t recognize the number

    Guess it’s hard to get good PCP these days . . .

    Ha, ha. Primary Care Physician. 

    • #15
    • October 19, 2020, at 1:01 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  16. Stad Thatcher
    Stad

    Sisyphus (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    People who only answer calls from numbers they know, are going to miss calls from hospitals where a relative has been admitted or possibly died…

    They’ll miss calls from people they know who had to use someone else’s phone for some reason…

    All kinds of important stuff.

    About the only calls I just ignore, are those where I can see that some scammer is pretending to use a number similar to mine, in the hopes that I’ll believe it’s someone in my area… I might still call them back, though, to verify that it was a spoof call. “We’re sorry, the number you are calling is not in service. Please check the number and try again.”

    That’s why we have voicemail.

    That’s what we do. If it’s a number we don’t recognize, we don’t answer and let it go to voicemail. If it’s a real call, they’ll leave a message. We’ve only had a few scammers or spammers actually leave a message. The only time it’s a problem is when we’re expecting a call from someone who’s not in our system yet.

    • #16
    • October 19, 2020, at 1:02 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  17. kedavis Member

    Sisyphus (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    People who only answer calls from numbers they know, are going to miss calls from hospitals where a relative has been admitted or possibly died…

    They’ll miss calls from people they know who had to use someone else’s phone for some reason…

    All kinds of important stuff.

    About the only calls I just ignore, are those where I can see that some scammer is pretending to use a number similar to mine, in the hopes that I’ll believe it’s someone in my area… I might still call them back, though, to verify that it was a spoof call. “We’re sorry, the number you are calling is not in service. Please check the number and try again.”

    That’s why we have voicemail.

    It’s a nice theory, but I know a lot of people who don’t check, and/or don’t delete old messages so then you get “The mail box is full. *click*”

    Actually some of the biggest time-wasters are the people who don’t listen to your message, they just call back to ask what you wanted.

    • #17
    • October 19, 2020, at 1:03 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  18. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member

    Hang On (View Comment):

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Max Ledoux (View Comment):

    It is true, the two polls I have ever taken (in my entire life) started like this:

    **Brrrrrrrngggggggg***

    Me: Hello?

    Pollster: Hi, I’m a pollster, could you answer a few questions? It will take 25-30 minutes.

    Me: Let’s do this. I work from home, have no children, and would crawl through a pit of snakes to vote for Trump

    For me it goes:

    Me: Hello?

    Pollster: Hi, I’m a pollster, could you answer a few questions? It will take 25-30 minutes.

    Me: Hey, go ahead and lose this number, m’kay? That’d be super. (click)

    Really confused. You answer your phone if you don’t know who’s calling you?

    Sometimes, when I’m dealing with some store, office, doctor, etc., on a limited basis. Not worth the trouble to set up a contact. So in those cases I’ll answer unknown numbers. Once I’m done with the store, office, etc., it stop answering unknown numbers.

    • #18
    • October 19, 2020, at 1:05 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  19. Susan Quinn Contributor

    Stad (View Comment):

    Sisyphus (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    People who only answer calls from numbers they know, are going to miss calls from hospitals where a relative has been admitted or possibly died…

    They’ll miss calls from people they know who had to use someone else’s phone for some reason…

    All kinds of important stuff.

    About the only calls I just ignore, are those where I can see that some scammer is pretending to use a number similar to mine, in the hopes that I’ll believe it’s someone in my area… I might still call them back, though, to verify that it was a spoof call. “We’re sorry, the number you are calling is not in service. Please check the number and try again.”

    That’s why we have voicemail.

    That’s what we do. If it’s a number we don’t recognize, we don’t answer and let it go to voicemail. If it’s a real call, they’ll leave a message. We’ve only had a few scammers or spammers actually leave a message. The only time it’s a problem is when we’re expecting a call from someone who’s not in our system yet.

    We have a set-up with Spectrum, and somehow they track spam calls so that when one of those numbers tries to call us, it only rings once and stops–I love it! After a while the spammers will try new numbers, but Spectrum catches up and nails them. 

    • #19
    • October 19, 2020, at 1:20 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  20. Annefy Member

    I had a horrible experience with a customer on Friday afternoon. He called about a shipment; yelled over and over how I never called him. Huh, I said. I’ve left you several voicemails with updates, and sent an email …

    Well, okay. Let’s get the problem solved. Do I have the correct phone #? Yes? Okay. I’ll pass it on to the shipper. 

    Tell the shipper to text only, he said. My VM doesn’t work.

    Well, allrighty then. If your VM doesn’t work and you don’t answer your phone, that’s on you.

    On a related note, I am very irritated with people who don’t answer their phone. It’s A Phone. My husband is one of them, didn’t answer a call and had his surgery delayed because of it. My sister didn’t know about a kid who’d been arrested for assaulting a horse (boy, that’s a story) and another relative didn’t find out about a dying loved one until it was too late.

    My husband claims that I am subconsciously waiting for that call from Ed McMahon. No. I have four kids in three different states, grandchildren, a pregnant daughter, twenty nieces and nephews, and brothers and sisters who aren’t as young as they used to be. And more than a few friends who are struggling emotionally right now.

    I always answer my phone; if it’s someone I don’t want to talk to I simply say: sorry. I’m driving. Can’t talk.

    I haven’t been called by a pollster since I changed my registration from D to R. Used to get three or four calls per year. Good times. I like to think I converted a few.

    • #20
    • October 19, 2020, at 2:28 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
  21. Jim Wright Coolidge

    My wife has been polled once.

    When she expressed support for Trump, three times the pollster said, “let me rephrase…” and asked again with variations, before she interrupted him to say, “no amount of rephrasing is going to make me to say I’ll vote for the other guy.”

    My response was “it’s 2020. I’m voting for the meteor.” *click*

    • #21
    • October 19, 2020, at 3:52 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  22. kedavis Member

    I think the meteor’s official name is Biden/Harris.

    • #22
    • October 19, 2020, at 4:01 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  23. Western Chauvinist Member
    Western ChauvinistJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    “Put me on your do not poll list.” I never, never answer polls. Not since I was push-polled decades ago. 

    To paraphrase Klavan, if we don’t answer polls, they won’t hear us coming at the ballot box. I like to give ’em a surprise.

    • #23
    • October 19, 2020, at 4:02 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  24. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. StephensJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    They will just steal it.

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/19/we-gamed-out-the-2020-election-and-found-our-constitution-can-handle-the-madness/

    They won’t seat Republicans. Remember when they flirted with halting the turn over before?

    Nancy Pelosi.

    • #24
    • October 19, 2020, at 4:07 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  25. Sisyphus Coolidge
    SisyphusJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):

    “Put me on your do not poll list.” I never, never answer polls. Not since I was push-polled decades ago.

    To paraphrase Klavan, if we don’t answer polls, they won’t hear us coming at the ballot box. I like to give ’em a surprise.

    This. 

    And polls are designed to achieve a certain end, which is never, ever an end I would agree with. Even if it is just their use in place of actual facts in “news” reports.

    • #25
    • October 19, 2020, at 4:15 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  26. OldPhil Coolidge

    katievs (View Comment):

    I almost can’t bring myself to click on an NRO link these days. Me. A once-Never-Trumper.

    They still have plenty of good people. Victor Davis Hanson, Kyle Smith, Andrew McCarthy, David Harsanyi, Alexandra DeSanctis, etc.

    • #26
    • October 19, 2020, at 4:47 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  27. JamesSalerno Coolidge

    I was watching a Gavin McIness video on polls and I think he nailed it right on the head. To paraphrase:

    “Have you ever seen a dad answer the phone? Picks it up, “Who is this?” He then holds the phone away from his head and looks at it confused “Huh? Who? Why are you calling me? Do I know you?”

    I know that’s pretty much my dad to a T. Dads have work to do and can’t be bothered with chit chat. The dads/men of America don’t show up in polls because a poll takes away from productive time. Dads vote for Trump.

    • #27
    • October 19, 2020, at 6:04 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  28. Theodoric of Freiberg Member

    Hartmann von Aue (View Comment):

    Dratted paywall. I already hit my four free articles.

    Listen to the podcast for free: https://www.nationalreview.com/podcasts/the-editors/special-episode-the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/

    • #28
    • October 19, 2020, at 6:11 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  29. Headedwest Coolidge

    JustmeinAZ (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):
    Really confused. You answer your phone if you don’t know who’s calling you?

    I do because too many medical offices now are not identified on caller ID. I once blocked my PCP because I didn’t recognize the number and they had to send me snail mail to communicate. Same with my mail-order pharmacies.

    I do not understand why big corporations cannot arrange to have proper Caller ID when they phone me. It’s a mystery, wrapped in an enigma..

    • #29
    • October 19, 2020, at 6:19 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  30. kedavis Member

    Headedwest (View Comment):

    JustmeinAZ (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):
    Really confused. You answer your phone if you don’t know who’s calling you?

    I do because too many medical offices now are not identified on caller ID. I once blocked my PCP because I didn’t recognize the number and they had to send me snail mail to communicate. Same with my mail-order pharmacies.

    I do not understand why big corporations cannot arrange to have proper Caller ID when they phone me. It’s a mystery, wrapped in an enigma..

    I’ve found that when people are working from home these days, they don’t have a corporate phone number. They might show as “anonymous” so you don’t get their personal phone number, or they might even “spoof” a more or less random number.

     

    • #30
    • October 19, 2020, at 6:22 PM PDT
    • 2 likes