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Pakistan Shoots Down Indian Jets
So far, two jets have been destroyed near the India/Pakistan border and airlines are suspending all flights. This could be pretty awful. Despite the fact that both sides seem evenly matched in the Kashmir conflict, the India/Pakistan war could erupt and we could see a limited exchange of nuclear weapons.
The problem for Pakistan is that they lack strategic depth. If a war happens, their plan involves invading India and trying to gain enough territory to force concessions. India knows this and has prepared broad defenses. It hopes to draw Pakistan in, run up against the Indian defenses, then go on the offensive and drive deep into Pakistan itself. That’s when the nukes get involved, if India takes too much territory and threatens the integrity of Pakistan.
Pakistan has a slightly better edge in regular armed forces. Many consider India to be a more corrupt, incompetent force. But they do tend to win all the wars in the long-term with Pakistan.
Hopefully, both sides can calm down.
Sports often is used by both sides to measure relations. There is a world cup soccer match in a few days between the two countries. If that gets canceled or delayed, it will be a sign of a larger problem.
Published in Foreign Policy, Military
Yikes!
Kevin Williamson had an excellent piece in NR on the situation in the subcontinent. He knows it well; I believe he edited an English newspaper in India at some point in his career.
A war between India and Pakistan is not in the interest of the USA. China will view it as an opportunity. Pakistan’s government is deeply, profoundly and institutionally corrupt.
Found the Kevin Williamson article.
Thank you @torywarwriter for writing up the overview and @douglaspratt for finding the article. I’m surprised it hasn’t been reported more.
Why worry about a nuclear war when Trump’s former attorney is testifying.
Your welcome. Its a subject I know a little bit about and felt that Ricochetti need to get some more context than just breaking news.
The problem with all of the reporting is that nobody seems to understand there is an election going on. This is kabuki.
Let’s hope.
Part of the problem is the hair trigger nature both of them have on their strategic nuclear forces is that due to their proximity warning times are literally a couple of minutes. Tremendous pressure to “use or lose”…..
Seems like a great time for the EU to do its thing.
Sell weapons to both parties?
What? Sit there and squabble?
I’ve been following developments on Twitter for several days now and thing’s have been gettung exciting. Of course, American media are more concerned with which actress was caught without underwear and who is currently denigrating the President than unimportant things like nuclear war.
To be fair, while Obama’s America was botching the Middle East, Pakistan was slaughtering its terrorists by the hundreds–if not thousands.
Google “from children of pakistan to hellbound terrorist,” click on the Dawn.com article, and take a good look at the picture of the bomb. Or watch the movie Waar.
Fighting terrorists really is a thing in Pakistan.
Not that all terrorists are the same in every way. A terrorist outfit that targets India is not in all respects the same as one that targets allegedly heretical Pakistanis–along with the government, the Christians, and foreign educators. I cannot refute Williamson’s claims regarding Pakistani friendliness to the former breed of terrorist.
So is the idea that the suicide attack was deliberately planned to be near the election by Jaish-e-Mohammad? So that it would force Modi to act before his election? Sure, Modi might be posturing at this point when it comes to all out war. But Kabuki or not, it was a huge attack that triggered this.
Cue up Tom Lehrer, because it is still February. “…the Hindus hate the Moslems….”
It’s also of interest to North Korea
Since Pakistani scientists developed their technology (also with help from Iran)
With Pakistan in fighting the Taliban. They unleashed it and controlled it for a while. They still have great influence on the ones in Afghanistan. The problem is that the foreign fighters they sent to Afghanistan came home. Saw the rural corruption and incompetence and decided that Pakistan could use there type of leadership.
So the Pakistan government was in a dilemma. Sure they could cut off their aid and influence to the Afghani Taliban, but that really hurts them long term. Not to mention much of ISI agrees with the Taliban. So the option was basically continuing to fund your own rebellion while at the same time trying to crush it.
Which is of course the USA position in Afghanistan so its not so strange after all. The USA continues to fund Pakistan which it knows is sending guns and support to the Taliban to kill US soldiers but the alternative is to no longer support a nuclear power who’s bases you need.
Despite the fact that they did harbor one of America’s greatest enemies for years.
Isnt foreign policy grand?
This is very disturbing.
I find myself grateful for the fact that India does not have a Grand Duke.
The linked article is rather incomplete. It mentions a Pakistani bombing attack in the Indian-held region, to which two Indian jets responded, at least one of which was shot down. It fails to mention the 12-jet Indian bombing attack in the Pakistani-held region, which prompted the Pakistani bombing attack.
It does accurately mention a terrorist attack in the Indian-held region that killed at least 40 Indian troops, which India linked to the Pakistani government.
So the sequence is:
Mid-February: Terrorist attack kills 40+ Indian police (I couldn’t find a precise date for this).
Feb. 26: India retaliates with a bombing attack by 12 Mirage 2000 fighters (these appear to be a pretty good, 4th generation jet fighter roughly in the class of the F-16, F-16, and F-18)
Feb. 27: Pakistan retaliates with a bombing attack, plus cross-border firing by ground forces.
Feb. 27: India retaliates with 2 jets entering Pakistani-held territory. Pakistan claims that it shot down both; India claims that one was shot down, a MiG-21. (The MiG-21 is really old, a second-generation jet fighter.)
Here’s the Wikipedia link, for what it’s worth.
Thanks. I have not had a chance to read all the incidents in the leadup. Just wanted to cover the breaking story.
Also I just posted another piece about a major unfolding scandal in Canada that is taking a lot of my time.
Pakistan doesn’t even control more than a third of its own territory. I suspect they will not win any serious confrontation.
Whence that claim? I would have estimated 90 percent. All the Punjab, plus Sindh, plus much of KP and Balochistan.
Well, I haven’t checked back in several years, but at least in 2012 more than a third of their provinces were controlled by fanatical Muslims such as Al Qaeda.
I moved there in 2012. I don’t know what you’re talking about.
This fairly recent report says that Pakistan harbors the Taliban (sorry, I wrote Al Qaeda above).
As recently as Sept 2018, Taliban forces still control large parts of Waziristan.
In 2009, a “shadow army” has defeated Pakistan in about a third of the country.
I can’t see the map on this website using my iPad (requires flash), but it’s the website I was recalling. It shows Taliban control of Pakistan in 2009.
It was a huge attack – by a Kashmiri Muslim. Can’t take revenge there, so Pakistan is attacked.
A third? The link says they were active in KP province, and happened to win some victories therein.
Yes, large portions of Waziristan even today–yes.
Various details in 2009–sure. I wouldn’t really know.
One or more branches of the Taliban not sufficiently dealt with–yes.
Nothing like your earlier claims, but serious problems to be sure.
Perhaps now. I hadn’t checked carefully in quite some time. Here’s a more recent article from 2017. I used to follow Bill Roggio very closely, especially when I was in Al Anbar Province of Iraq in 2005. I found his analysis of where my battalion was operating to be much more accurate than anything else in the press, and often more accurate than what I was seeing from the US government in open sources. My recollection is that in that time frame he was saying that Pakistani government had lost all control of Waziristan and most control of several other provinces. Perhaps it’s gotten a little better, but if so, I suspect it’s more because those elements have more influence in the government than before. So, it’s not better, it’s worse.