There are 33 comments.

1. Member
   unsk2

   @

   1:04 PM EST ⋅ Feb 28, 2019

   Good post Skyler.  Bill Roggio is indeed credible.  One of the advantages of getting out of Afghanistan is that we can deal with Pakistan and  their terrorist enabling more forthrightly.  One of the problems in being in Afghanistan is that too many of our supply and exit routes had to go through Pakistan which put us in a very tenuous pickle. Pakistan is not to be trusted.  

2. Coolidge
   Skyler

   @Skyler

   1:44 PM EST ⋅ Feb 28, 2019

   unsk2 (View Comment):

   Good post Skyler. Bill Roggio is indeed credible. One of the advantages of getting out of Afghanistan is that we can deal with Pakistan and their terrorist enabling more forthrightly. One of the problems in being in Afghanistan is that too many of our supply and exit routes had to go through Pakistan which put us in a very tenuous pickle. Pakistan is not to be trusted.

   Fair enough.  But being in Iraq and Afghanistan allows us to bracket Iran.  Pakistan is penny ante.  

3. Member
   Saint Augustine

   @SaintAugustine

   1:45 PM EST ⋅ Feb 28, 2019

   Skyler (View Comment):

   Saint Augustine (View Comment):

   Skyler (View Comment):

   Saint Augustine (View Comment):

   Skyler (View Comment):

   Saint Augustine (View Comment):

   Skyler (View Comment):

   Pakistan doesn’t even control more than a third of its own territory. I suspect they will not win any serious confrontation.

   Whence that claim? I would have estimated 90 percent. All the Punjab, plus Sindh, plus much of KP and Balochistan.

   Well, I haven’t checked back in several years, but at least in 2012 more than a third of their provinces were controlled by fanatical Muslims such as Al Qaeda.

   I moved there in 2012. I don’t know what you’re talking about.

   This fairly recent report says that Pakistan harbors the Taliban (sorry, I wrote Al Qaeda above).

   As recently as Sept 2018, Taliban forces still control large parts of Waziristan.

   In 2009, a “shadow army” has defeated Pakistan in about a third of the country.

   I can’t see the map on this website using my iPad (requires flash), but it’s the website I was recalling. It shows Taliban control of Pakistan in 2009.

   Yes, large portions of Waziristan even today–yes.

   Various details in 2009–sure. I wouldn’t really know.

   One or more branches of the Taliban not sufficiently dealt with–yes.

   Nothing like your earlier claims, but serious problems to be sure.

   Perhaps now. I hadn’t checked carefully in quite some time. Here’s a more recent article from 2017. I used to follow Bill Roggio very closely, especially when I was in Al Anbar Province of Iraq in 2005. I found his analysis of where my battalion was operating to be much more accurate than anything else in the press, and often more accurate than what I was seeing from the US government in open sources. My recollection is that in that time frame he was saying that Pakistani government had lost all control of Waziristan and most control of several other provinces. Perhaps it’s gotten a little better, but if so, I suspect it’s more because those elements have more influence in the government than before. So, it’s not better, it’s worse.

   That’s all fine, except that “most control of several other provinces” would be much overstated.

   Dawn.com is helpful.  Not the whole story, but a valuable resource on other sides of some of the stories.