Three well-known science fiction films all take place in this new year of 2019: “Blade Runner” (1983), “The Running Man” (1987), and “Akira” (1988). “Blade Runner,” although released longest ago, may be freshest of mind thanks to the excellent 2017 sequel, “Blade Runner 2049.” And when that follow-up hit the big screen, there were plenty of news stories comparing the technological predictions of the two films to the tech gear we actually have today. For instance: The two movies show or suggest far more advanced AI, robotics, biotechnology, and space travel (lots of theorizing that the “Blade Runner” and “Alien” franchises kinda-sorta exist in the same universe), as well as the famous physics-defying flying cars or “spinners.”

On the other hand, the real 2019 has far better communication tech thanks to the internet and smartphones. And since the original “Blade Runner” missed that information revolution, it also of course missed the accompanying business disruption. It featured companies such as Atari, Bell Telephone, and RCA as important tech sector players. It’s a theme that “Blade Runner 2049” continued as creators chose to show a world where Atari is a tech colossus rather than Apple or Microsoft, which both existed when “Blade Runner” was released. The films depict a reality where there’s not a lot of obvious Schumpeterian creative destruction. Yet one would think there would need to be plenty of entrepreneurial and technological churn to arrive at a place where advances such as off-world colonies and replicants exist.

It might also seem like “Blade Runner” really missed the mark when it comes to Japan, portrayed in the films as a cultural and economic powerhouse. Japan’s ascent sure appeared likely in the 1980s when it seemed to many — especially US policymakers — to be on the verge of eclipsing America as the world’s economic and technological leader. Then came Japan’s “lost decades” of stagnation, and then usurpation by China as the supposed Asian threat to American dominance. But maybe “Blade Runner” wasn’t so far off. Japan’s pop culture impact, as seen for instance in the popularity of anime and manga, is pretty significant. And even the economy is better than you might think, once you account for its shrinking population. GDP per person, adjusted for inflation, has risen considerably this century. Check out this chart from the Financial Times:

And maybe when we look back at these films from 2049, they will have appeared to have underestimated our overall tech progress. This from innovation scholar Daniele Archibugi in a 2014 presentation titled “Blade Runner Economics: Will Innovation Lead the Economic Recovery?”:

My bet is that in the next decades, perhaps not in the next decade, but in twenty years’ time, there will be a new fusion, similar to the integration achieved at the end of the XIX century between the electrical and chemical industry. The new fusion will therefore lead us to a much greater use of bio-technology in combination with nano-technology, often controlled by software and other ICT devices. I expect to see that quality of human life will change substantially and that the next major advances will not be associated to our ability to connect everywhere and with everybody, but to understand better how our bodies work and what are the implications for well-being. I envisage a society in which our next portable devices will not be able to let us know instantaneously how much it will rain in our street this afternoon, how to avoid the cold that we would otherwise catch, and fix diseases. These devices may also be able to provide advice on how to avoid depression and what is the food and beverages we will need.

My forecast is therefore that, when I will watch again “Blade Runner” with my grand-children, they will be totally unimpressed by the innovations in both ICTs and Bio-technologies. And, perhaps, they will note with wiseacre attitude that the film underestimated progress by all accounts and, of course, will pet me as the think and dumb grand-father. I should be ready to have something else to impress them: today I could show the recent film Transcendence, by Wally Pfister, a story that has already predicted the full integration of ICTs and Bio-tech. If this will not work, I will teach them an evergreen lesson: economists, futurologists and business analysts often get it wrong. But artists, real artists, are always right.