Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way immediately, yes, it is extremely likely that Brendan Fraser will follow Will Smith as the winner of the Academy Award for Best Actor. I don’t want to take anything away from his performance, but there is a sociological reason for this to happen in addition to the artistic achievement.

Fraser has been largely absent from the film world since his heyday twenty years ago. A story about his physical decline and about abuse by Hollywood entitled power players suggested a career that was largely in the rearview mirror. This is a comeback story, and the guy making a comeback is one of the most likable fellows you are going to encounter.

This is perhaps the perfect counter-programming to last year’s disastrous ceremony, where the eventual winner of the acting prize assaulted the host and was not removed from the venue but actually got up a few minutes later to receive an award that was overdue but was now clouded by controversy. Two years after presuming a win by the late Chadwick Boseman, only to be shown as craven exploiters of the emotional turmoil, the Academy needs a clear win for a popular player that will generate little controversy and much-needed goodwill.