Out of Chaos Comes Order (?)

 

HillaryEven Werner Heisenberg would be shaking his head at the unpredictable mess that is election 2016. And consider this; we may not have seen anything yet. In today’s New York Post Charles Gasparino offers this tidbit:

FBI chief James Comey and his investigators are increasingly certain that presidential nominee Hillary Clinton violated laws in handling classified government information through her private email server, career agents say. “You don’t start granting people close to Clinton immunity unless you are seriously looking at charges against your target,” one former official told me. [… Some] FBI staffers suggest the probe’s at a point where Comey might quit in protest if Justice ignores a recommendation to pursue a criminal case against Clinton.

If Hillary is criminally charged and is required to suspend her campaign, the internal strife for Democrats will make the current GOP family squabble look like a meditation circle.

The Hill considers the chaos scenario for Democrats:

It’s the scenario that Republicans dream of and Democrats believe is all but impossible: Hillary Clinton being forced to drop out of the presidential race due to criminal charges over her email server. Any bombshell findings in the FBI’s investigation of Clinton could plunge the Democratic race into chaos.

Bernie Sanders could stand to gain. As the only other candidate in the Democratic race, the party could quickly coalesce around him in an effort to halt the bedlam. But that’s far from a sure thing, with many in the party fearful he would be a weak general election candidate.

In the event that Clinton stepped aside after winning the nomination at the convention, the Democratic National Committee could decide on the replacement on its own.

 

[…]Then there are the superdelegates, the 712 Democratic Party leaders, including members of Congress, who have the freedom to support any candidate at the convention.

The superdelegates are supporting Clinton in droves right now — 95 percent of those who have expressed a preference have chosen Clinton. But they could desert Clinton just as emphatically if her candidacy came to the brink of imploding, some say.

“The superdelegates would flee first because they are politicians,” said one Democratic strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns.

“They are most likely to feel the pressure not to cast their ballots in favor of a nominee under indictment.”

If enough pledged Clinton delegates and superdelegates went to Sanders and delivered him 2,383 delegates, he would win the nomination.

 

[…]“Superdelegates do not necessarily vote as a bloc in a contested situation … there would be superdelegates going any number of ways in this scenario,” Putnam said.

So if the Democratic race ends up with its own contested convention, all bets are off on how it would conclude, since the final decision ultimately rests on the whims of the 4,765 delegates.

“It would be a [expletive] of the first order,” the Democratic strategist said.

DC partisans are nervously/gleefully whispering rumors in huddled packs. The fact is, we can only wait and see what comes from the FBI and what, if anything, the Obama Department of Justice will do with it.

It seems clear that Director Comey is personally overseeing this investigation. The overwhelming pressure can not be understated as he is undoubtedly aware of the likely profound, historic and pivotal ramifications of his findings on a presidential election.

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  1. donald todd Inactive
    donald todd
    @donaldtodd

    Seawriter:

    donald todd: On the Republican side, we are looking at the GOPe considering a convention whereby they can enshrine their candidate.

    What folks miss is the GOPe has less say in a convention than the party grass roots. It is the delegates who choose the nominee, not the party establishment (especially if you define GOPe as the Beltway establishment). The delegates get largely selected from grass roots participants at each state.

    Delegates are bound to their pledged candidate on the first ballot (and depending on the state, a few more ballots). After that they can pick whomever they choose. This was one reason the Ron Paul supporters always got their slate sent to the national convention. If no candidate had gotten enough to get 50%+1 on the first ballot, they believed they could get Paul nominated on later slates.

    Does anyone really believe (other than the delusional John Kasich) believe grass roots delegates will swing for John Kasich if neither Trump nor Cruz reaches 50%? I cannot see it.

    What I can see happening is delegates coalescing around a conservative Republican because most delegates are more conservative than GOPe. It will not be Trump, because Trump is neither conservative nor a Republican. It might be Cruz. Equally it could be Rick Perry, Scott Walker, or someone else west of the Mississippi and disengaged from GOPe. It will not be an establishment candidate, however.

    Seawriter

    I think it is the GOPe’s convention.  What the GOPe wants, it gets.

    • #61
  2. Matt Upton Inactive
    Matt Upton
    @MattUpton

    Red Fish, Blue Fish: An FBI recommendation that gets ignored and covered up is EXACTLY the outrageous behavior that so many voters are rebelling against. Including Bernie supporters.

    This is anecdotal, but I have heard from several liberal democrats whose preference is Sanders first, Trump second. The combination of Hillary’s history of deception and six figure speeches is too much for them anymore.

    None of these people are party leaders, however, who will only be swayed by perception of electability. I don’t know if the principled liberals have enough sway in the electorate.

    • #62
  3. David Sussman Member
    David Sussman
    @DaveSussman

    Misthiocracy:

    David Sussman: Even Friedrich Nietzsche would be shaking his head at the unpredictable mess that is election 2016.

    I don’t recall Nietzsche ever dabbling in the art of predicting elections, therefore I don’t find it hard to believe that he might shake his head at nearly any electoral period.

    ;-)

    Ha!

    Clarification: Nietzsche was the source of the post title.

    • #63
  4. David Sussman Member
    David Sussman
    @DaveSussman

    Pugshot:As Hoyacon has suggested, if this starts to become an issue with the general public – or even in the Democratic primary – Hillary will spin and fight furiously. And as Judge Mental has suggested, if the FBI makes a formal recommendation to the Justice Department, Loretta Lynch will take her own sweet time “reviewing” the matter and conducting an “independent” investigation. Then, if necessary, Obama will declare that this whole matter was an unintentional oversight on Hillary’s part for which she bore little direct responsibility, and he’ll issue a pardon. The Democrats will do whatever is necessary to protect their putative nominee.

    But how will that impact the voters?

    • #64
  5. Michael Collins Member
    Michael Collins
    @MichaelCollins

    Possible weird scenario:  Hillary is indicted before primary season is much further along.  Mainstream media becomes alarmed that with Hillary out of the race Trump could actually become president.  They immediately unload all the opposition research on Trump that they had been saving to use against him in the general election.   This ensures the nomination of of Ted Cruz.  Reality check.  If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.  But I can dream, can’t I?

    • #65
  6. John Seymour Member
    John Seymour
    @

    Susan Quinn:I think I’m going to just check myself in to the nearest psychiatric hospital . . . let me know when it’s over . . .

    Save a padded room for me.

    • #66
  7. John Seymour Member
    John Seymour
    @

    donald todd:

    Susan Quinn:I think I’m going to just check myself in to the nearest psychiatric hospital . . . let me know when it’s over . . .

    If the Democrats win, they’ll find someone to take over your ward. It is merely the extension of power for the sake of power.

    As long as they continue the meds, why would we care?

    • #67
  8. James Gawron Inactive
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron

    Michael Collins:Possible weird scenario: Hillary is indicted before primary season is much further along. Mainstream media becomes alarmed that with Hillary out of the race Trump could actually become president. They immediately unload all the opposition research on Trump that they had been saving to use against him in the general election. This ensures the nomination of of Ted Cruz. Reality check. If it seems too good to be true, it probably is. But I can dream, can’t I?

    Michael,

    Keep dreaming.

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #68
  9. Robert E. Lee Member
    Robert E. Lee
    @RobertELee

    John Seymour:

    donald todd:

    Susan Quinn:I think I’m going to just check myself in to the nearest psychiatric hospital . . . let me know when it’s over . . .

    If the Democrats win, they’ll find someone to take over your ward. It is merely the extension of power for the sake of power.

    As long as they continue the meds, why would we care?

    But they won’t continue the meds.  They will “mainstream” the patients and put the into society (out on the street) so they can live up to their potentials as actualized handicapable human beings.

    • #69
  10. Ralphie Inactive
    Ralphie
    @Ralphie

    Tuck:

    Ralphie:I expect either Obama or Trump (if elected) to pardon her if given the chance, and Cruz to prosecute her. She needs any indictment to come between the election and inauguration, after it could damage her election chances, and before Cruz is sworn in.

    We shall see:

    “‘Please FBI, please go after Hillary. I wanna run against Bernie!’ Trump hollers at N.H. rally.

    He does worse against Bernie. Anyway, he usually just says what is on the top of his head, it seemed like the thing to say at the time; that the crowd would like it. He’ll pardon her, more than 50% chance.

    • #70
  11. donald todd Inactive
    donald todd
    @donaldtodd

    John Seymour:

    donald todd:

    Susan Quinn:I think I’m going to just check myself in to the nearest psychiatric hospital . . . let me know when it’s over . . .

    If the Democrats win, they’ll find someone to take over your ward. It is merely the extension of power for the sake of power.

    As long as they continue the meds, why would we care?

    The meds will run out.

    • #71
  12. Pugshot Inactive
    Pugshot
    @Pugshot

    David Sussman

    Pugshot:As Hoyacon has suggested, if this starts to become an issue with the general public – or even in the Democratic primary – Hillary will spin and fight furiously. And as Judge Mental has suggested, if the FBI makes a formal recommendation to the Justice Department, Loretta Lynch will take her own sweet time “reviewing” the matter and conducting an “independent” investigation. Then, if necessary, Obama will declare that this whole matter was an unintentional oversight on Hillary’s part for which she bore little direct responsibility, and he’ll issue a pardon. The Democrats will do whatever is necessary to protect their putative nominee.

    But how will that impact the voters?

    I think what you mean is, “how will the voters react?” First, I don’t think Obama really cares. Second, the Democrats, by and large, have not been repulsed by Hillary’s past behavior, and considering all the “wonderful things she’ll give them,” I don’t think that voting for a pardoned criminal will be a bridge too far for most of them – particularly if they can comfort themselves with the reminder that her opposition is (probably) Donald Trump and the evil Republicans. Third, there’s always the possibility that Obama cuts a deal with her: in return for the pardon, she voluntarily withdraws her candidacy. The Democrats then have a convention where Bernie doesn’t have enough votes for the nomination and the delegates end up (after a deadlock of sorts) voting for their new dream ticket: Biden/Warren. Then an overwhelming majority of Democrats and probably of independents (who can’t stomach Trump) will flock to the new Democrat nominee and the third term of the Obama/Biden administration will commence. Meanwhile, the Republican Party will lay in ruins.

    • #72
  13. Miffed White Male Member
    Miffed White Male
    @MiffedWhiteMale

    Kozak:Don’t you have to convicted, or plead guilty to get a pardon?

    Ever heard of Richard Nixon?

    • #73
  14. Michael Collins Member
    Michael Collins
    @MichaelCollins

    James Gawron:

    Michael Collins:Possible weird scenario: Hillary is indicted before primary season is much further along. Mainstream media becomes alarmed that with Hillary out of the race Trump could actually become president. They immediately unload all the opposition research on Trump that they had been saving to use against him in the general election. This ensures the nomination of of Ted Cruz. Reality check. If it seems too good to be true, it probably is. But I can dream, can’t I?

    Michael,

    Keep dreaming.

    Regards,

    Jim

    Hey, I dreamed I got six likes.  When I woke up it was true!

    • #74
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