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Out of Chaos Comes Order (?)
Even Werner Heisenberg would be shaking his head at the unpredictable mess that is election 2016. And consider this; we may not have seen anything yet. In today’s New York Post Charles Gasparino offers this tidbit:
FBI chief James Comey and his investigators are increasingly certain that presidential nominee Hillary Clinton violated laws in handling classified government information through her private email server, career agents say. “You don’t start granting people close to Clinton immunity unless you are seriously looking at charges against your target,” one former official told me. [… Some] FBI staffers suggest the probe’s at a point where Comey might quit in protest if Justice ignores a recommendation to pursue a criminal case against Clinton.
If Hillary is criminally charged and is required to suspend her campaign, the internal strife for Democrats will make the current GOP family squabble look like a meditation circle.
The Hill considers the chaos scenario for Democrats:
It’s the scenario that Republicans dream of and Democrats believe is all but impossible: Hillary Clinton being forced to drop out of the presidential race due to criminal charges over her email server. Any bombshell findings in the FBI’s investigation of Clinton could plunge the Democratic race into chaos.
Bernie Sanders could stand to gain. As the only other candidate in the Democratic race, the party could quickly coalesce around him in an effort to halt the bedlam. But that’s far from a sure thing, with many in the party fearful he would be a weak general election candidate.
In the event that Clinton stepped aside after winning the nomination at the convention, the Democratic National Committee could decide on the replacement on its own.
[…]Then there are the superdelegates, the 712 Democratic Party leaders, including members of Congress, who have the freedom to support any candidate at the convention.
The superdelegates are supporting Clinton in droves right now — 95 percent of those who have expressed a preference have chosen Clinton. But they could desert Clinton just as emphatically if her candidacy came to the brink of imploding, some say.
“The superdelegates would flee first because they are politicians,” said one Democratic strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns.
“They are most likely to feel the pressure not to cast their ballots in favor of a nominee under indictment.”
If enough pledged Clinton delegates and superdelegates went to Sanders and delivered him 2,383 delegates, he would win the nomination.
[…]“Superdelegates do not necessarily vote as a bloc in a contested situation … there would be superdelegates going any number of ways in this scenario,” Putnam said.
So if the Democratic race ends up with its own contested convention, all bets are off on how it would conclude, since the final decision ultimately rests on the whims of the 4,765 delegates.
“It would be a [expletive] of the first order,” the Democratic strategist said.
DC partisans are nervously/gleefully whispering rumors in huddled packs. The fact is, we can only wait and see what comes from the FBI and what, if anything, the Obama Department of Justice will do with it.
It seems clear that Director Comey is personally overseeing this investigation. The overwhelming pressure can not be understated as he is undoubtedly aware of the likely profound, historic and pivotal ramifications of his findings on a presidential election.
Published in Politics
Yeah, you lost me in that scenario at that point.
Never going to happen.
And I wish I had enough faith in the Democratic party to think they’d drop her in the unlikely scenario that she gets indicted…
But she’s still doing quite well in the polls, although not as well as Sanders.
Feel the Bern.
There is a saying in Italy: In Heaven the Italians are the cooks. In Hell they run the government.
Now I’m going to return to my single malt and GK Chesterton in my attempt to create my own cloistered environment.
If only the GOP had a candidate who could get enough media attention to drive that home…
[Disclaimer: lemons to lemonade suggestion only]
Oh I know that. I was doing a little wishful thinking.
sob can be read in 2 ways, and they are both appropriate.
I would be happy if she was simply indicted, at which point it wouldn’t effect me whether she lives the rest of her life in Martha Stewart country club prison or Chappaqua. Either way, she would be a disgrace. … … or not.
You’re a kinder, more forgiving man than I. But yeah – an indictment would be good.
Lorretta Lynch is talking about prosecuting Climate Change Deniers. This is her serious cause?
Do we really think LL would take on the Clinton machine?
I don’t think there are enough body guards to protect her.
So deep is the hatred for Republicans that there would have to be a traumatic tragedy, right here on American soil, directly tied to her misdeeds, for opinion to truly turn against her.
And as earlier stated, our Senate is in such disarray that they might not be able to reach a 2/3 majority on an impeachment during a HRC presidency.
This country may well get the fire and brimstone brewing. Maybe the ancient Lot will pray for our salvation.
So, don’t look back, unless you favor becoming a salt lick for the creatures that remain.
I hope Comey is having any vehicle he drives or is driven in checked VERY thoroughly before he enters it, varies his route to and from work and home, and watches for any vehicles following him. I’d be wary of the pizza guy, the UPS man, the mailman, etc….. (you’re NOT paranoid if ‘they’ really are out to get you!)
Agree it is disturbing. It is also true.
We’re going to learn if there are any Pariots at Justice, or just “Civil Servants” filling a chair….
As Hoyacon has suggested, if this starts to become an issue with the general public – or even in the Democratic primary – Hillary will spin and fight furiously. And as Judge Mental has suggested, if the FBI makes a formal recommendation to the Justice Department, Loretta Lynch will take her own sweet time “reviewing” the matter and conducting an “independent” investigation. Then, if necessary, Obama will declare that this whole matter was an unintentional oversight on Hillary’s part for which she bore little direct responsibility, and he’ll issue a pardon. The Democrats will do whatever is necessary to protect their putative nominee.
Hillary has three things going for her that means she will never have to answer for her crimes.
She’s a member of the Political Class
She’s a Democrat
She’s a Clinton
The first offers a wide variety of protections that we, the citizen class, would never be given. The second adds another layer, as Democrats control so many of the levers of power in Washington. As mentioned above, Republicans are tossed from office for minor slights. Democrats can survive dozens of ethics violations and still continue in office until finally retiring in style. The third is almost magical — except that by now it’s a sort of mundane and fully-expected magic.
She has a triple-layer of protection around her.
A Clinton indictment would be simultaneously the most anticipated and yet the least expected event in this crazy campaign season.
The only way for a Hillary indictment to happen is if it becomes an issue with the general public. If the public doesn’t “buy in” to her guilt, then she’ll walk free. Again. Pressure must be put on Washington.
I recommend protests on the Washington Mall, weekly, until she’s behind bars. (I would take part, but like many in the citizen class, I have to work two jobs just to keep a roof over our heads.)
I think placards highlighting how Joe P. Citizen would be locked away for life if he did even half of what she did. Highlight the division between the political class and the citizen class. Obama is famous for dividing the nation between rich and poor, white and everyone else. Let’s respond by pointing out the divide that most threatens our nation — that between the political class and the citizen.
Gonna take large numbers. And the crowd has got to be one that the media can’t ignore or spin as a bunch of angry white men. Which is to say, it has to be entirely made up of women. Better if they’re women of color.
What he said!
Should all the sane people end up in the psychiatric ward, you know who the jailers will be, don’t you?
When her husband’s efforts were exposed on a blue dress, he was tried and then given a pass. If Hillary!’s efforts are exposed, she will be given a pass (with or without trial) and quite probably be found electable by the Democrat Party at large. Whether she would be elected is another consideration, but… I for one would not be surprised. The Party of Death is also the Party of Betrayal so nothing that they do is a surprise to me any longer.
On the Republican side, we are looking at the GOPe considering a convention whereby they can enshrine their candidate. Of note, since at this point neither Trump or Cruz is their candidate, who do you think most likely? Kasich? Experienced. Biddable. Represents what the GOPe wants. Has won a state and has some delegates. Watch the money.
On the Democrat side, the Democrat Party has stacked the deck against Sanders using super delegates. The Democrat Party wants socialism in bits and pieces here and there, but it also wants cronyism so that it can afford certain things, and Bernie does not appear to be biddable on that.
So the Democrat Party does not want Bernie and it may turn out that Hillary! is not available. “Hey Joe (Biden)! Over here!” But they will need time to ensure that he can be placed on the ballots. Or not, since the law doesn’t seem to affect Democrat politics. Just ask the dead who vote, or the felons who vote (Minneapolis), or other demographics which don’t have the votes that they cast. The law is no longer a problem for most well-placed Democrats. The law is only something to be used against the enemies of the Democrats, never their favorites or pets.
I think it is more likely that FBI chief James Comey and his investigators will be hounded out of government service and end up on the unemployment line if not arrested themselves if they try anything. I look for a full court press painting these guys up as angry GOP operatives and part of the vast right wing conspiracy that is always after the Clintons. The FBI guys are playing a dangerous game and if they are smart and value their careers, reputations and family livelihoods they will lose all evidence and go hide till this thing blows over.
The smart thing would be for them to place any evidence they have in a very safe and keep it for later as leverage when HRC is elected.
What folks miss is the GOPe has less say in a convention than the party grass roots. It is the delegates who choose the nominee, not the party establishment (especially if you define GOPe as the Beltway establishment). The delegates get largely selected from grass roots participants at each state.
Delegates are bound to their pledged candidate on the first ballot (and depending on the state, a few more ballots). After that they can pick whomever they choose. This was one reason the Ron Paul supporters always got their slate sent to the national convention. If no candidate had gotten enough to get 50%+1 on the first ballot, they believed they could get Paul nominated on later slates.
Does anyone really believe (other than the delusional John Kasich) believe grass roots delegates will swing for John Kasich if neither Trump nor Cruz reaches 50%? I cannot see it.
What I can see happening is delegates coalescing around a conservative Republican because most delegates are more conservative than GOPe. It will not be Trump, because Trump is neither conservative nor a Republican. It might be Cruz. Equally it could be Rick Perry, Scott Walker, or someone else west of the Mississippi and disengaged from GOPe. It will not be an establishment candidate, however.
Seawriter
presidential pardon
Don’t you have to convicted, or plead guilty to get a pardon?
Not so’s you’d notice. Remember, this is democrats we’re talking about here.
“Yep.”
I agree, although I think the grassroots types aren’t so rash as to choose someone no longer in the race. And, representatives of Perry and Walker would have to be working the unbound delegates right now! Which, unless I’ve lost my tap to the rumor mill, doesn’t seem to be happening. Therefore, I predict Cruz in this scenario.
We should also remember that superdelegates have fled Felony before in 2008. There’s a history of this in the Democrat Party.
I think the indictment would be the death knell because the Democrats would realize she would lose.
That said, I also think that if the FBI recommends an indictment and Justice ignores it, it will also have a seriously negative effect on Hillary. Perhaps to the point of ensuring she loses.
An FBI recommendation that gets ignored and covered up is EXACTLY the outrageous behavior that so many voters are rebelling against. Including Bernie supporters. It’s a serious big deal in this election. Trump would call Hillary “that felon Hillary” every single time he mentions her, including in the debates to her face. It would be devastating.
I think the Democrats are walking into a trap on this one and have not realized it yet.
I do not believe they would do it as a first choice. But if Cruz does not win by the fourth ballot (yes, it could happen) a new candidate is likely to emerge. Rather than deadlock between Trump and Cruz forever, someone else could be chosen. It often happened in the past, although not since World War II.
Seawriter
I expect either Obama or Trump (if elected) to pardon her if given the chance, and Cruz to prosecute her. She needs any indictment to come between the election and inauguration, after it could damage her election chances, and before Cruz is sworn in.
We shall see:
There is orderly chaos and there is disorderly chaos. Disorderly was Weimar Germany and the US today. Not good. Orderly chaos are markets encumbered only by clear law. Good.