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Out of Chaos Comes Order (?)
Even Werner Heisenberg would be shaking his head at the unpredictable mess that is election 2016. And consider this; we may not have seen anything yet. In today’s New York Post Charles Gasparino offers this tidbit:
FBI chief James Comey and his investigators are increasingly certain that presidential nominee Hillary Clinton violated laws in handling classified government information through her private email server, career agents say. “You don’t start granting people close to Clinton immunity unless you are seriously looking at charges against your target,” one former official told me. [… Some] FBI staffers suggest the probe’s at a point where Comey might quit in protest if Justice ignores a recommendation to pursue a criminal case against Clinton.
If Hillary is criminally charged and is required to suspend her campaign, the internal strife for Democrats will make the current GOP family squabble look like a meditation circle.
The Hill considers the chaos scenario for Democrats:
It’s the scenario that Republicans dream of and Democrats believe is all but impossible: Hillary Clinton being forced to drop out of the presidential race due to criminal charges over her email server. Any bombshell findings in the FBI’s investigation of Clinton could plunge the Democratic race into chaos.
Bernie Sanders could stand to gain. As the only other candidate in the Democratic race, the party could quickly coalesce around him in an effort to halt the bedlam. But that’s far from a sure thing, with many in the party fearful he would be a weak general election candidate.
In the event that Clinton stepped aside after winning the nomination at the convention, the Democratic National Committee could decide on the replacement on its own.
[…]Then there are the superdelegates, the 712 Democratic Party leaders, including members of Congress, who have the freedom to support any candidate at the convention.
The superdelegates are supporting Clinton in droves right now — 95 percent of those who have expressed a preference have chosen Clinton. But they could desert Clinton just as emphatically if her candidacy came to the brink of imploding, some say.
“The superdelegates would flee first because they are politicians,” said one Democratic strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns.
“They are most likely to feel the pressure not to cast their ballots in favor of a nominee under indictment.”
If enough pledged Clinton delegates and superdelegates went to Sanders and delivered him 2,383 delegates, he would win the nomination.
[…]“Superdelegates do not necessarily vote as a bloc in a contested situation … there would be superdelegates going any number of ways in this scenario,” Putnam said.
So if the Democratic race ends up with its own contested convention, all bets are off on how it would conclude, since the final decision ultimately rests on the whims of the 4,765 delegates.
“It would be a [expletive] of the first order,” the Democratic strategist said.
DC partisans are nervously/gleefully whispering rumors in huddled packs. The fact is, we can only wait and see what comes from the FBI and what, if anything, the Obama Department of Justice will do with it.
It seems clear that Director Comey is personally overseeing this investigation. The overwhelming pressure can not be understated as he is undoubtedly aware of the likely profound, historic and pivotal ramifications of his findings on a presidential election.
Published in Politics
I don’t recall Nietzsche ever dabbling in the art of predicting elections, therefore I don’t find it hard to believe that he might shake his head at nearly any electoral period.
;-)
SOP for the Obama administration would be for the Justice department to start their own investigation after the receiving the report from the FBI. Loretta Lynch has already used to word ‘thorough’ in describing such an investigation, and I would expect it to be scheduled to complete sometime after the election.
So for me the question is whether the leaked FBI recommendation will sway opinion enough that Hillary feels the need to drop out (unlikely) or whether others see a need and start to abandon her.
I don’t expect an indictment, but, if one comes, I don’t think that she’ll drop out. It just isn’t the Clinton way. She will spin and fight, then fight and spin. If there’s no indictment, just a series of leaks about FBI findings, that’s water off of a duck’s back.
Why would she be required to suspend her campaign if she is criminally charged? Indeed, if she were charged with a crime, her best hope is to continue her run, and hope she is elected President. As President she is pretty well immune from criminal prosecution while in office. About the only way she can be removed is through impeachment, and the Senate would never muster a two-thirds majority for removal.
If she were criminally charged (especially before the convention) she is going to double down, continue to run, and decry the whole thing as “a vast right-wing conspiracy.” That approach has worked for her in the past.
Seawriter
Yeah, I think if he would be surprised at anything it would be that we are still here.
David, do you think we are already seeing the impact of all the released emails?
I think she merits indictment, but as others have said she can and will spin that into right wing conspiracy victimhood.
It seems the bulk of the damage comes from the court of public opinion and on that matter most of the evidence is in the public domain.
David,
Well done on the post. I saw the article this morning but I didn’t have time to write about it. You did an excellant job.
My only comment is that no one is asking ultimate questions. We have been well trained that Republicans/Conservatives must be dragged down over minor offenses while Democrats/ Liberal/Radicals can get away with anything. We are a society of laws. She has held a Senate seat and was Secretary of State. She graduated law school. Anyone else would have been gone from public life or in jail over what we already know. There is no excuse for her.
The real question is whether a Republic founded on the rule of law can endure not indicting her. If at minimum she is not driven from the public stage by this I think there is a serious question as to the future of this country.
Regards,
Jim
Good question… I would guess public opinion is baked only until there is a decision. If nothing comes from the investigation she is the likely next POTUS (based on current polls). However, if FBI recommends indictment, whether or not DOJ proceeds, public opinion and the media will likely go against her. When she loses Jimmy Fallon…
I think I’m going to just check myself in to the nearest psychiatric hospital . . . let me know when it’s over . . .
JM, you could be right, but I think she loses much support and then Dems go through the chaos discussed outlined in The Hill.
Suzy,
Please don’t do that. The crazies are loose and they are driving the sane people mad. We just need a very large net.
Regards,
Jim
This would be a decidedly different calculation if there was a real race for the Democratic nomination (something closer to ’08) where an ambitious rival could be counted on to make this a real issue in the campaign. Gone is the right wing conspiracy and up goes the public visibility. But noooo, instead we get everybody’s least favorite socialist uncle talking crazy about foreign policy at the dinner table.
Realistically, the only one who can make the decision to indict is Obama, and right now Obama is likely more interested in not seeing Trump become president than anything else.
So it all comes down to electoral politics. I can’t imagine any indictment before the convention, which would by necessity result in Sanders having a real shot at the nomination.
But if Trump can start gaining serious ground on Clinton in the polls in a 1 vs 1 matchup – which is a real possibility – I can see Obama pulling the plug on her in a situation in which party insiders could choose the nominee.
A lot of people would agree with this.
Again, many people are suggesting this, and maybe my inner boy scout is unrealistic, but I don’t see how everyone but her most loyal sycophants don’t abandon her. James Carville will be spitting venom and we suddenly are back again in 1996. People don’t want that.
I expect the GOP realizes that they have two candidates that will attack her relentlessly on this, using all the weapons of social media , MSM and ads.
Therefore, they will fully support any effort to derail both of those candidates to protect Hillary.
Dave,
Agreed.
Regards,
Jim
Why do you think Trump would gain on her? If she’s indicted? Her fans will still think she’s the victim of a right wing conspiracy. Or am I missing something about Trump that will move him up?
Because Hillary is, by nature, a horrible campaigner; while Trump is an incredibly gifted natural campaigner. And her performance in 2008 showed that when someone got the best of her, her worst side came out. In other words, once she starts going downhill, she can quickly go off the rails.
Keep in mind that Hillary tends to do much worse than Bernie Sanders among all voters in general election polling matchups vs all of the Republican candidates. That should be the other way around based simply on Clinton’s center-left political stances and her name recognition.
We’ll have to disagree. I’d say that Trump is the one candidate against whom Clinton would have a shot even under indictment. Campaigner or not, he has serious credibility issues; he’s not going to persuade with his take on Clinton as possible felon. In addition, his mere presence will cure one of Clinton’s weaknesses–motivated voters and turnout. It won’t be that hard to motivate the 65% with an unfavorable view of Trump to vote and at least make Clinton look like a viable alternative.
This.
And if Hillary is not criminally charged, a sufficiently determined GOP candidate will drive that home to expose the crookedness and criminality of the Democrat party.
It’s a win/win.
Jim,
Thanks. The most curious thing about Hillary isn’t that she is a corrupt opportunist and likely criminal, but how she still garners so much support. Hillary’s potential of sitting in the Oval Office says less about her and more about us.
You don’t always get what you want. Look at it from Hillary’s point of view. She has nothing to lose by doubling down, and her freedom, wealth, and power if she does withdraw. Do you think she puts the desires of the people or the good of the nation before her own interests? Never has.
And there are people – even on Ricochet – who would likely vote for her regardless, even if she were found holding a bloody axe over the body of a chopped-up four-year-old, if Trump is the nominee.
Seawriter
That is a disturbing visual SW.
If there’s a recommended or even actual indictment don’t you think it’s up to the DNC and not her?
It would be pretty to think so.
Seawriter
If the Democrats win, they’ll find someone to take over your ward. It is merely the extension of power for the sake of power.
So there really is no escape….sob…
David, Do you really think the DNC will stand up to the Clinton machine? With 95% of the superdelegates preferring her? That would be another interesting kerfuffle to watch if it comes to that.
I think Democrat, Inc is as self serving as Clinton, Inc, and bigger. They have down-ballot races to concerns themselves over. Yes, I do believe there would be mutiny within the ranks.
Let’s all go. It’s just getting too weird.
I am about eight toes over the edge of giving up completely on the idea that the American Justice system still works. But if the FBI and the Justice Department can withstand the inevitable, withering pressure from the Left, do the right thing, and Hillary Clinton is indicted, prosecuted and jailed for her many crimes, then I could be hopeful once again that justice in this country doesn’t play political favorites.