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It Ain’t Over Yet: Part Two
Yesterday, the Republicans held a primary in Louisiana and caucused in Kansas, Kentucky, and Maine. Ted Cruz stomped Donald Trump in Kansas and defeated him handily in Maine. In Louisiana, he lost to Trump by 3.6 percent, and in Kentucky, Trump beat him by 4.3 percent. Marco Rubio came in a distant third everywhere but Maine, where John Kasich forced him into fourth.
What we have here in states where only Republicans can vote in the primary or caucus is a real horse race, and that, I believe, is what we are going to see down the line. In Rubio’s absence — and I suspect that he will soon be absent — Cruz may well snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Stay tuned!
Published in Elections, General
What you say seems to make sense. But would it make sense to Trump. Is he prudent in the way you suppose? To pull this off, he would have to move towards the conservatives on a number of issues. Would his vanity allow that? I doubt it. And your analysis might not be right. A Trump-Kasich ticket might cut much more deeply into the disaffected Democratic vote than a Trump-Cruz ticket. And what about a Trump-Rubio ticket?
Or let me play a wild card! What about a Trump-Jim Webb ticket?
I can’t predict who is going to win, but I wish it were Rubio.
I can’t imagine why Trump went after him, then Christie, then Trump again.
He has had a very difficult road to walk, and with the exception of sinking a little bit too far to Trump’s level at Thursday’s debate, he has met every attack on him head on and with grace.
I love what he said at CPAC:
He is and will be a great man, someone who has been tested. That is the only thing I am certain of today.
I feel like I’m watching some old World War II movie in which some young GI from the cornfields of Kansas meets up with the Germans and the kid from Kansas prevails, just because he is smarter and braver.
Americans are so amazing.
There’s a lot of us in the Base that aren’t listening to you as well.
Why didn’t he ‘change lanes’? Was he restricted in some way? Yes, we’re all aware that ‘Immigration isn’t an Issue with Voters’ (that’s sarcasm) – was there any other issue that America’s Sweetheart could have championed to victory or is that still to come?
Hmm . . . for “average voters who don’t pay much attention to politics” they have—by your account—a very well-developed understanding of how Democrats and establishment Republicans caricature Ted Cruz. So which is it? They are average uninterested voters or they have dialed-in and absorbed the talking points of all the mainstream slicksters?
Ah yes, simplistic because you didn’t make it. What are we all thinking that have not supported/will support Marco Rubio.
Rubio voters are getting to be anecdotal as well.
Rubio is so likable and charismatic that Republican primary voters are rejecting him outright. Perhaps it’s time to take your dispassionate eyes to a dispassionate optometrist?
Prof. Rahe, the majority of Cruz voters like Rubio just fine, they just prefer Ted. But going forward, there are less of those Cruz voters.
I think one thing we should all be amazed at is the head-to-head match-up polls against Hillary. All of the republican nominees with the general exception of Trump beat Hillary. This is amazing. At this stage in the game, these head-to-head polls generally reflect name recognition. What it says is that the general electorate is does not want to elect Hillary. She is a deeply flawed candidate.
Or you can believe BT, who has a seemingly endless list of ‘others’ to blame for Rubio’s one unpardonable political sin: he lied to and then betrayed his constituents on a topic about which they feel great passion.
Trust. It’s a terrible thing to waste and an impossible thing to recover.
There are 2 songs I hear every 4 years on the Republican side–the Mike Murphy-Drive-by ditty and the Song of the Eightes. Personally, I have always liked Eighties music better.
I disagree. While a majority of Cruz voters would go to Rubio, you would have a lot more Cruz voters going to Trump than you would have Rubio voters going to Trump.
I get it. Cruz rubs some people the wrong way. You are apparently one of those people.
“Rubio is so likable and charismatic that Republican primary voters are rejecting him outright. Perhaps it’s time to take your dispassionate eyes to a dispassionate optometrist?”
This is silly. First, only just over a third of GOP voters have cast ballots. Secondly, of those who have voted, Rubio has gotten the same amount of votes as Cruz, except for the state of Texas, Cruz’s home state. If the people who cast votes for the candidates that left were allowed to vote again with their second choice, I’m sure Rubio would garner many more votes than Cruz. Lastly, whether Cruz can compete with Rubios likability and charisma among GOP primary voters has very little to do with who would seem most appealing to the general electorate.
“I disagree. While a majority of Cruz voters would go to Rubio, you would have a lot more Cruz voters going to Trump than you would have Rubio voters going to Trump.”
The polls I’ve seen about second choice preferences indicate you’re wrong. Cruz would do better as second choice with Rubios voters than Rubio does as second choice for Cruz supporters, but each gets a majority of the others votes as the alternative.
The thing is Rubio’s fan club thinks that only Cruz’s negatives would stick once the Clinton machine goes into action. They want us to believe Rubio will somehow be immune to Clinton’s attacks, but they’ve absolutely nothing to back that claim.
The truth is no one knows and no one will know until November, when Cruz beats Hillary 52.3 to 47.7.
You heard it here first, folks! [:-)
I know, poor Marco, and the Republican Establishment hates him so. Fox News hates him so, Nikki Haley hates him so, and that dunderhead, Trump, has been slandering him since Iowa calling him a liar, impugning his credentials to run; and creepy Cruz said Marco lies all time, said Marco just makes things up; and creepy Cruz lied about lovable Marco supporting Gang 8, supporting ethanol subsidies, telling Univision Marco wouldn’t end DACA on Day One. Outrageous.
It’s tough loving Marco with dispassionate eyes.
“Or you can believe BT, who has a seemingly endless list of ‘others’ to blame for Rubio’s one unpardonable political sin: he lied to and then betrayed his constituents on a topic about which they feel great passion.
Trust. It’s a terrible thing to waste and an impossible thing to recover.”
This is brilliant except for two things, Trump has been exposed as a far, far bigger liar and flipper compared to Rubio, including on immigration and trade, but these Trump voters stick with him. Second, exit polls consistently show Rubio is viewed as more trustworthy than both Trump and Cruz.
We were told after Super Tuesday that it was all downhill for Ted. His best states were behind him. Then he crushed Trump and Rubio in KS and ME, and came close to winning in LA and KY.
Elections are dynamic. Personally, I used to think Cruz’ “affect and mien” (in Douthat’s phrase) were too off-putting. Now I think his strengths as a candidate far outweigh such superficial considerations. Listen to his CPAC speech. Listen to his interactions yesterday with the voters in Idaho. He is incredibly knowledgeable and quick on his feet.
Also, he seems to have caught Rubio’s cold, which brings out his natural personality and shows it to be remarkably likable and relatable.
I think we’re going to win.
If I remember correctly, Palin was more vivid and brighter than the Maverick. Even she, as formidable as she was then, wasn’t sufficiently formidable to keep Maverick from losing.
Whatever one thinks of Rubio, he is not catching on. His charisma must have “use by” date.
Should one compare Mitt with Cruz, well Mitt wasn’t great shakes either. One a technocrat, the other a scold.
In 2008 the Democratic primaries had a slew of candidates of varying backgrounds and skills – including the VP nominee from 2004 – and one recognized, indisputable front-runner. There were many issues, but the one that overrode all others was opposition to the Iraq War. The eventual winner, a long-shot when the campaign began, was the candidate with the strongest bona fides as anti-Iraq War.
Similarly in 2016 immigration ranks as the dominant issue in the GOP primaries. It is what motivates the largest elements of the Republican base. Slowing immigration has provided ballast for a totally unexpected candidate while capsizing some formerly impressive candidates if they are on the wrong side of this powerful political current. One simply cannot row against it, anymore than one could be seen in 2008 Democratic circles as being for the Iraq War.
Deny it all you want, but
RIP Jeb!
RIP Marco
I know, it’s so silly, just 1/3 have cast votes, and Marco has done so poorly he’s about to drop out.
I know, dispassionate eyes tell me Rubio wins second choice votes over Cruz hands down.
I know, the Drive-bys have fed me again and again purists like Cruz can’t win in the general. It’s just impossible and they keep giving us one constitutional conservative after another. These conservatives are so narrow, unlikable. Just ask Mike Murphy, he knows, he’s won so many presidencies for us.
It’s so exasperating.
Yes, you’ve just proved that Trump voters are different from other voters. News flash. Here’s another one: Trump has no constituents . . . never been elected to anything. Oddly enough, voters are able to discern subtle differences like that . . . especially in Florida, where there’s soon to be a rather important primary.
Also, did you happen to see the results from yesterday’s voting? Trump is now starting to pay the price for … well, for being Trump.
Finally, your faith in exit polls taken during primaries is . . . remarkable (and I’ll just assume you are accurately portraying them b/c I wouldn’t waste a minute reading one). They have zero significance for the vote in November.
Perhaps, but it seems more likely that lack of knowledge of immigration positions is what motivates large elements of the base.
All that typical voters will compare is the two nominees. So if you want to do historical comparisons, the relevant match-ups are Mitt-Barack and Ted-Hillary. It’s what the world looks like through that narrow, two-person, Ted-Hillary lens that matters in November.
As opposed to the warm and charming Hillary?
I’d still rather be stupid than evil.
I must say that I have trouble seeing as far as November. Who wins will depend on what the nominees of the two parties look like at that moment. If Hillary is the Democratic nominee, her warts (which are enormous) will be visible, and I suspect that she will appear to be old, halting, and at times confused.
If Trump is the nominee, the media will unload on him bigtime, and the problem is that most of the awful things that they will say will be true. Rubio and Cruz have much less baggage. The latter does not have the former’s charm. That may matter, but it may not. He does have gravitas — more than Rubio — and he is younger and far more nimble than Hillary.
Let’s face it. This is not a year that is easy to predict. How many of you foresaw the Trump phenomenon? I certainly did not. Nor could I have imagined the popularity of Bernie Sanders.
We can guess at what will happen in November. But we know very little. My guess is that if Cruz can edge out Trump he can win, and I would say the same for Rubio. Cruz’ lack of likeability is a defect; Rubio’s boyishness may be a defect as well.
The weekend of Trump attacks and Twitterpalooza did him no favors. He didn’t look presidential no matter how legitimate the criticism of Trump was.
Running around stage reading someone else’s tweets looks like 8th grade, not the Republican primary.