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Immigration Is Not a Deal Breaker for Rubio
Sen. Marco Rubio’s involvement in the Gang of Eight attempt to pass comprehensive immigration reform has been one of his campaign’s biggest stumbling blocks. This, and and his refusal to disavow some form of “amnesty,” has left him vulnerable and at odds with the base. The only way for Rubio to win the nomination — so the theory goes — is to take a hardline on immigration.
This conventional wisdom sounds very logical and compelling. There’s only one problem with it: It’s completely wrong.
Exit polls from the first three nomination contests have revealed two interesting facts: Immigration is a top priority for only a small percentage of voters, and that 2) A majority of GOP voters so far actually support legal status for illegals working in the United States. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are all very different states in very different parts of the country, but immigration has consistently been the top priority of between only 13-15% of Republicans there in election night entrance/exit polls. What’s more, in New Hampshire, 56% of GOP voters said they support legal status for current illegals (go to the second page of results). And while one might chalk that up to the squishy nature of the average Granite State primary voter, the same question yielded almost the same result (53% favoring legal status) among staunchly-conservative South Carolinian GOP primary voters. CNN didn’t ask the same question to Iowa caucusers, but I doubt those voters are any more hawkish on “amnesty” than voters in the other two states.
Moreover, the same exit polls show that about a quarter of those who support “amnesty” for current illegals (22% in South Carolina; 24% in New Hampshire) actually support Trump. This indicates that immigration can’t account for Trump’s dominance in the race so far. His appeal is based on much more than the issue of immigration and, in fact, he is getting many votes despite his stance on immigration.
I’m going to submit that people shouting “Rubio supports amnesty!” and braying about the Gang of Eight are going to be sorely disappointed at their effectiveness in derailing a Rubio candidacy. They are probably also going to have to rethink what sort of compromise they are going to have to accept on immigration reform and legal status for immigrants. They are in a minority in their own party and are most certainly an even smaller minority among the general voting public.
Our immigration system needs a reformation and it needs to start with controlling our borders, tracking visas, and requiring verified legal status for employment. But anyone who thinks there is a silent majority looking to deport over ten million people is living in a bubble.
Published in Immigration, Politics
It’s something much more than immigration that is the primary cause of the Trump effect. No theory yet has held, but education level appears to be a hard dividing line between Trump supporters and detractors.
I grant that at this point, we have only incomplete knowledge about electability. But incomplete knowledge is not no knowledge.
If your argument is that current favorability numbers are unlikely to be predictive of later favorability, or that the association between favorability and electability is not as strong as most people would – quite reasonably – assume, OK. In that case, the evidence from current polling data is weak. But still not nonexistent.
Yes. But how likely is stuff like that to persuade people who aren’t already like you and Melissa? The more common response might be glazed eyes and “ignore”.
This is yet another ridiculous attempt to condemn people who are tired of the relentless failure and betrayal by the GOP that our complaints are merely because we demand “purity,” while much smarter leftists are willing to accept “defects.”
Contrast how rank and file GOP party members felt about John McCain and Mitt Romney compared to how leftists felt about Barry Obama.
I don’t think the left has had to compromise at all, or accept any ideological defects, in their candidates.
Meanwhile, rank-and-file conservatives, who want border security and the rule of law, are continually betrayed by the GOP. Now we must accept Marco Rubio, one term senator of dubious ethics, lest we be attacked by our side yet again.
The party leadership has spent election after election attempting to enshrine open borders into law, taking enormous damage in the process, yet they keep at it.
I suggest that conservatives have been far more tolerant of such “defects” than leftists, and we remain so.
But this has limits. Hence, Trump.
Hilarious.
Because you want it sooo much.
I’m sure Rubio is going to start winning real soon now.
Or not.
We see how well that went for Bush when he tried it. It wasn’t just the rank and file party voters who rebelled against the idea but many of their representatives as well.
Like Marvin the Martian with his illudium Q36 explosive space modulator is the Donald: “Where’s the kaboom? Where’s the earth-shattering kaboom???”
Fractured field math. That’s all this is. The only person less popular in this country than Hillary Clinton is Donald Trump.
Hillary Clinton may be the neutron star of unpopularity, but if you want to make some real gravitational waves, you have to go straight to the black hole – and that singularity of surliness is Trump.
I expect Trump will going after Rubio, if he thinks he needs to do so.
But I’m mystified with this idea that immigration isn’t a big issue.
Immigration is what made Trump the frontrunner and completely upended the entire GOP presidential race.
The idea that it’s a somehow minor issue is whistling past the graveyard by Rubio fans, because they can’t get past his inability to actually win primary elections.
So they bury Rubio’s defects under a lava flow of wishful thinking, and eagerly await glory once reality is vanquished.
Good luck with that, Rubio fans.
In the same way that a riot or burning an entire city block gets all the attention.
Some data suggests that it’s more his populist appeal, his division of the haves and have nots (much like Sanders) that is drawing in less educated white voters rather than appealing across a wide swatch of the party electorate.
It’s not. A third of Trump’s votes so far come from people who support legalizing the illegal immigrants currently here. If Trump were only getting the people who oppose “amnesty” he would have had to drop out of the race by now.
Well tell that to all the voters who’ve cast ballots so far. It’s a top issue for less than 15% of them and a majority of them oppose your position.
The wishful thinking here is all yours, both in your denial of the facts about the actual support for hardline immigration reform, and in your completely irrational belief that Trump is some kind of more trustworthy and reliable politician on the issues you care about.
Only time will tell. But remember, Trump hasn’t even really started on Rubio yet. He seems to be concentrating his efforts on Cruz at this time – likely he sees Cruz as the greater threat to the (s0-called) anti-establishment vote. When / if Cruz starts to fail, I think he’ll turn his toxic* brand of campaigning on Rubio and exploit his vulnerabilities.
(*If the CoC permits the use of the word ‘toxic’ in this context).
Mm-hmm.
It doesn’t matter if people don’t like him. It matters that people vote for him.
Unlike Rubio.
I agree with this completely. It either will or won’t happen.
Since I don’t see myself as someone likely to wield much influence over whether it happens or not, I’m mainly content to wait and see. As far as I can tell, the only reason to argue strenuously over whether it will happen or not is the hope that one’s own arguments will influence whether it happens or not.
I doubt Trump will ever top 40% in a single GOP primary contest. If you’re convinced I’m wrong, I’d encourage you to march right over to PredictIt.com and make your fortune.
He hasn’t thus far, and adding together a couple of non-Trumps trumps Trump handily in many situations.
I’m one of them. The problem is in the next wave of illegals, which Trump apparently wants to stop, unlike Rubio and his establishment friends.
I wouldn’t put it as the top issue either, if asked in a poll. And apparently you didn’t know my position.
I bet this sort of poll has questions carefully crafted to arrive at a predetermined conclusion, which is that no one really cares about immigration, so no one will care once the permanent rolling amnesty desired by the political class gets rolling. I disagree.
Again, you didn’t know my position. But I’ll make one thing clear- if I had the tiniest morsel of trust left for any establishment pol likely I wouldn’t be supporting Trump.
But I don’t. Especially Rubio.
Fine. But I find it especially grating to see complaints that Trump is a demagogue from fans of an ethically challenged partial term senator whose clumsy attempt to have an accomplishment blew up in his face- and who is now regarded as the next GOP hope because he can give good speeches, just like Mussolini.
We’ll see.
No doubt. And in many situations it doesn’t.
That’s why we play the game, and why we hold elections.
Except he won every demographic group in NH, including the well-educated.
Please reconsider the facile idea that every Trump supporters is stupid, or merely too ill-educated to vote their interests.
I’ve never said that. I’m saying that you don’t need many of them when you divide 100% by 12 in order to win. That’s all.
When the field winnows down to 2-3 then we’ll see.
It has nothing to do with “stupid” or “ill-educated.” It has to do with angry. Too angry to make rational decisions. Very bright and well-educated people are not thereby immune from road rage. And that’s what Trump is – political road rage.
He moved forward because he’s an ambitious politician, and wanted to jump to the grownups table in the Senate, and make it damn clear he’s willing betray the voters that sent him to get there. “Conservatism” is a brand that Rubio sells to get to the top. His mistake, as he sees it, isn’t that he did the Gang of Eight, but that he showed his hand too soon.
He’s hit 50% in Massachusetts polls. That contest is a week away.
I would say, rather, too angry to make risk-averse or risk-neutral decisions. Instead, they are making a risk-preferring decision.
Which needn’t, strictly speaking, be irrational. We are most used to thinking of utility functions as concave (risk-averse) or neutral rather than convex. But a convex utility function, while unusual and quite likely a sign of desperation, needn’t be inconsistent with rationality.
Rubio needs a better answer to the amnesty charge. Something like, he tried to negotiate a compromise that would stop further illegal immigration and also reassure Hispanics that Republicans are their friends. He should also explain that it will be difficult for a Republican to win the Presidency without a larger share of the Hispanic vote. And conclude that with President Rubio and a Republican Congress they will be able to pass an immigration bill that protects and reassures Hispanic Americans and also stops illegal immigration permanently.
Rubio needs a good comeback for Trump. Perhaps, Trump can’t build hotels and casinos without going bankrupt, yet he thinks he can make Mexico pay for a wall. Or, Trump’s art of the deal is brilliant! He declares bankruptcy and leaves his creditors with all his debt.
Good post. And the quality of the ripostes probably tells us all we need to know about why the Republican Party is blowing up and working as hard as possible to put Hillary in office.
It is also depressing to see what Breitbart and Ann Coulter have become; originally proponents of limited government and freedom, they are now caricatures of bad thought and bad policy, screamed out at the tops of their collective lungs.
Fixed the grammar for you.
[redacted by member – not worth getting involved]
Depends. If we are talking rational decision making, we would need to consider how they view the risks
Lets assume that Cooperate and Betray have a value of 1 and -1 respectively.
If Rubio has a 75% chance of betrayal, and a 25% chance of cooperation then he is a -.5 on expected value. If Trump is a coin flip, he is neutral, and Rubio is negative value opprotunity.
One could just as likely say that Trump supporters are pessimistic about other candidates, just as much as one could say they are risk-loving.
The Dems have a superior business model. They peddle Utopia, then blame heartless, racist, greedy Republicans when they can’t deliver. Unless you are someone who is inclined to ask where all the “free” stuff is going to come from — and most people aren’t — it’s pretty easy to ignore the details and climb aboard the gravy train.
Republicans are peddling reality, which is a lot tougher sell.
I mean his character and how he deals with stressful situations. You are right about the conservative credentials.
Just so you know, I’m pretty convinced that this mantra about who his more conservative doesn’t hold much interest to me. The candidates are all conservative enough for me (except Trump) but I think a bigger issue this cycle is whether they are wimps or not. Romney was a wimp (in relative terms — relative to the Dems) and this search for the most conservative isn’t cutting it with me this time. I do want Trump to go away but one of the reasons that he is doing well is that he does fit what I and others want: he can fight the left and the Dems.
But, I want Cruz — he’s conservative AND he will fight the left on their own terms. If the enemy brings tanks to the battlefield we have to get some tanks ourselves. The samurais learned that the gun was going to have its day and finally faced that they had to give up this aversion or get killed. We are in a new time. The left has swept the field and the Republicans are the only ones left of the original America. They have to get their game on.
I wish I had your restraint!
Edit: I NEED your restraint. And I’m going to endeavor to exercise more restraint (and I’m writing it here to make it harder to fail to exercise restraint on this board)