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October’s Ricochet GOP Polling
Not much has changed since the beginning of October. Among Ricochet members, the field is coalescing around Rubio, Fiorina, Cruz, and Jindal. They remain the top vote-getters but Fiorina and Cruz have swapped rankings. Carson’s absence is worth noting, especially since he’s the current front-runner in the polls.
The second-choice results feature the same candidates, with the addition of Carson.
I think this further shows that these top four candidates are substitutes, especially Rubio or Fiorina, which I’ll show in the following graphs. Below is the second-choice among those who preferred Rubio.
This graph shows the second-choice of those who are primarily supporting Fiorina.
And finally, we see where Cruz supporters go for their second choice, which is split pretty evenly between Rubio and Fiorina.
I’ve compiled the historical data on Rubio, Cruz, and Fiorina. You can see that Fiorina seems to have peaked.
At Max’s suggestion I compared the Ricochet poll results with the Real Clear Politics average of nation-wide polls. I’ve sorted it in descending order by the RCP numbers. You can get an idea of how Ricochet members differ from (what one may reasonably assume to be) the average GOP primary voter.
I don’t know how many members we have from Iowa and New Hampshire but if we could get at least 300 or so to take a poll I’d love to see what that looks like and compare it with the nation-wide Ricochet vote, as well as other polling.
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Nice work. I’m from NH. My top two choices are Rubio and Fiorina. My top 5 add to them: Carson, Cruz and Jindal.
One key aspect of the RCP that you should keep in mind is that it is very backward looking. Polls tend to be slow in catching new trends. A rolling average of polls even moreso. I suspect the Ricochetti are a better predictor of changes and the development of new trends. Where there is a new trend developing I predict you’ll see it here a good 1-2 months before RCP.
a debate between those top four would be incredible (and a great way to market the party)
Awesome! With Undecided as Veep. Do another with Undecided also shown, in smaller letters.
I posted this one back in August.
But fine, here’s your new one, slavedriver!
Suggested slogan: “Together we can make America a thing.”
I have a hunch that the average Rico member is better informed (and less likely to be swayed by national news reports) than the typical poll respondent. That would explain some of the differences between us and the national polls.
And btw – Bereket – Thanks again for pulling this info together!
Love it. Thanks.
Where is Trump? If Carson is leading the RCP, isn’t Trump second?
Other? Is that the Donald’s secret service name?
I wonder why Ricochetti are so different from the polls I hear on FNS and Rush Limbaugh? I know that we are divided to some degree by conservatism and libertarianism but we at this website seem to be on a different plane of existence from our peers outside of Ricochet.
It’d be great if Ricochet became the bellwether of Republican primaries? Even better if we were prescient for the general.
Aren’t you Canadian?
Aren’t Canucks as entitled as the dead to vote in U.S. elections? There are more similarities than you might imagine.
I guess it may surprise you to learn that Trump isn’t very popular in these parts, which is a compliment to the Ricochet membership.
Is there a law against foreigners posting silly memes?
I am pretty clammy.
Keep in mind, too, that back when Bush was leading the polls (that happened) he was at about 1% on Ricochet, too.
Consider also that Walker led Ricochet pretty convincingly for a long time, with Rubio leading the second choice. And with Walker out, Rubio’s on top pretty convincingly. Fiorina had some movement, Cruz has moved around, but there’s some basic stability here. We’re obviously a self-selected group of unusually informed conservatives. That means it takes more to change our minds.
And while you’ll hear every view represented, we evidently reflect the basic center of conservatism more than the full range of Republican opinion.
Are those results at all meaningful? Don’t know. Ricochet arguably indicated a consensus conservative choice of Walker or Rubio months ago. As the race gets more serious all the smart people, wisely or foolishly, are starting to predict Rubio as the consensus conservative choice. Maybe we judged correctly early. Or maybe we live in a bubble.
Thanks for all your hard work on this, Bereket! Very clear and detailed info in a readily digestible format and the trend lines are interesting!
Mis: Genius stuff. Thanks for the laughs. I think I will print this up and put it on the office wall.
Very interesting. Thank you! Gives me hope.
I think that the Ricochetti are far more politically aware than the typical “GOP voter.” This is a self-selected group that: (1) thinks it’s really fun to read, and post, about politics; and (2) is willing to pay for access to the premier forum for such discussion.
I suspect that a great many people who are polled as “GOP voters” haven’t really tuned in to the candidates, and that results are substantially driven by name recognition.
I also suspect that a great many of such people are frustrated and fed up with politics and politicians in general, and therefore likely to tell a telephone pollster that they support a non-politician “outsider.” This explains the high poll numbers for Trump and Carson.
Bingo. This exactly.
It’s also an open question how this actually translates into votes. “Fed up” may mean “cynical.” It may very well not mean “furious and I’m going to do something about it.”
It’s disheartening to see so many Rubio supporters. I had no idea so many favored amnesty over the rule of law and actually enforcing the law.
Go along to get along. Enjoy the cocktail parties with your fabulously liberal friends.