Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
Ukrainian Counteroffensive
The Ukrainians have started the counteroffensive. We don’t have solid information on how it is going in any specific way, but one key indicator is the Russian response: they blew up a major dam (and thus its 351MW generator), endangering the nuclear power stations that rely on it for cooling water. This suggests desperate panic and a “burn it all down” mindset.
Even Russia’s erstwhile allies are licking their chops. The lapdog who runs Belarus? He says he wants part of Russia. All those predictions I have been making about Russia being carved up by separatists within and invaders without? I think they will come true. Russia is ridiculously weak and powerless. Totalitarian states must have the credible threat of force to retain power. If you rely on Might to Define Right, but you no longer have the former…
Russia appears to be breaking things out of pure spite. After all, the dam was the source of Crimea’s fresh water, and now Crimea has none. Not too smart. If a radioactive cloud emerges from the huge nuclear facility, Russia is downwind.
Things might start happening VERY quickly now.
Published in General
And unfortunately, nukes. Luckily, since Putin is unlikely to believe he can earn eternal bliss he is more deterrable than a religious fanatic who believes he gets eternal redemption by mass murder.
I think how Ukraine and Russia are positioned at the end of 2023, compared to where they were positioned at the end of 2022, will be informative.
But I have no idea how long it will take for the shooting to stop.
I have a relative who was mid-level planning officer in the Pentagon for some time back in the late 90s, through 2002. He commented once how his staff in his area of war plan maintenance – Central America – all got pulled to CentCom after a certain September 2001 morning to update and go deep on Central and Western Asia Plans.
We didn’t lose on the battlefield. We gave up and walked away.
Yes. But we had a great kill ratio.
I think the comparison between the Ukraine-Russia war and the US war in Afghanistan is an interesting one.
The Taliban (not just the leader of the Taliban, but the rank and file people who have been part of the Tablian) had an intense desire to dominate Afghanistan that didn’t wane during the period of US involvement.
Rank and file Americans (by this I mean voters, not people in the State Department) might have initially been motivated to support a US backed government and struggling democracy in Afghanistan as a means of preventing Afghanistan from becoming a base of terrorism in the first years following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. But that motivation declined probably by 2008 or there abouts.
In a society where the periodic elections determine who makes policy, the attitudes of rank and file people sometimes has an impact on what the policy makers decide to do.
Obama, Trump and Biden all leaned towards the idea that the United States was too involved in military conflicts overseas, Afghanistan included. Trump negotiated with the Taliban and Biden essentially surrendered Afghanistan to the Taliban.
So, in terms of the will to fight among the rank and file people, the Taliban was in a better position to win than the United States.
The situation in the Ukraine-Russia war is different. The average Ukrainian is extremely opposed to living under Putin’s murderous dicatatorship. The average Russian doesn’t really care about Ukraine. So, while Putin is probably willing to send more Russian soldiers into combat in Ukraine, the amount of chaos within the Russian military and Russian society could perhaps increase to the point where Russia ends up being pushed out of Ukraine. This might take years if it happens at all.
Which is Russia’s best case scenario, hopefully, in Ukraine. As opposed to morale collapsing followed by a “bug out” and defeat- and that is the aim of the awaited (perhaps started) Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The trend among European nations, at least, seems to be of increasing interest in seeing Russia severely punished if not defeated outright.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was speaking to some Germans recently. Some of them heckled him, calling Scholz a warmonger. Scholz took off the gloves and said to those Germans that if they had any brains they would realize that it is Putin who is the real warmonger.
Scholz continued his rant against Putin and said that European will not let a Russian victory happen. This is a side of Scholz that has rarely been seen since the war started.
There are battlefields and battlefields.
The political battlefield is just as important as the military battlefield.
NATO expanded eastward without any military battles because the people of Central and Eastern Europe, once they had indirect influence over the policies of their nations, preferred alliance with NATO over alliance with Russia.
The idea that the counter-offensive has begun would be surprising to the Ukrainians most of all (at least as of this morning).
“Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, dismissed statements by Russian officials who have said the counteroffensive has already begun.
‘All of this is not true. When all this will begin, it will be decided by our military,’ Danilov told Reuters in an interview. ‘When we start the counteroffensive, everyone will know about it, they will see it.’
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-has-not-yet-launched-counteroffensive-senior-security-official-2023-06-07/
Unless this is a ruse de guerre, I’m not sure were your information is coming from.
Um, the water level is controlled at the dam, not at the upstream locations. Unless you’re talking about some other dams further upstream.
Why would the fall of Bakhmut change anyone’s assessment? The fighting in and around Bakhmut didn’t stop.
Wouldn’t Yehor be the Ukrainian version of Igor? Pretty sure I’ve seen that elsewhere, though not transliterated into English with that spelling.
Yes, there were a lot of people saying that. At the time I didn’t want to believe them.
A year from now we’ll still be arguing over when the counteroffensive began, or if we’re still waiting for it.
I’ll take that bet. It has started in earnest this week. See Russian milbloggers.
Last year there was a much discussed Ukrainian counter-offensive in the eastern part of Ukraine and talk of thousands of square kilometers of territory recaptured from the Russians by the Ukrainians.
For good or for bad, that seems to be the measure of the success of a counter-offensive, territory recaptured. Obviously, Ukraine wants to do this while suffering the fewest number of casualties as possible.
After the Russians skedaddled over the Dnepro, they destroyed the bridge part of the dam from the center to the Ukrainian side of the river. In order to blow the dam, they either sent divers with hundreds of pounds of explosives to the base of the dam, or they ninjaed even more hundreds of pounds onto the dam from the Russian side. This would pretty much require that the Russian security on the dam be dumber than rocks.
The Russians blew the dam. They perhaps wanted to do less, but all that water had other ideas, and the damage to the dam was greater than they anticipated.
This would be a poor bet to take – regardless of whether or not the counteroffensive has begun, odds are we will still be arguing over it a year from now…..
Said Ambassador of Israel to Ukraine Mikhail Brodskyi
Right. The most important battlefield was in Washington DC. President Nixon wisely put in place a policy that allowed South Viet Nam to successfully defend itself for the long term. That continued until a certain corrupt senior FBI official, Mark Felt, had a fit of pique. This prompted him to initiate a coup in which he successfully brought down President Nixon (sound familiar?). Nixon was not doing anything worse than what had been done by his three predecessors. That didn’t make it right, but it wasn’t unique and it was precedented. With the Watergate “scandal” and Nixon’s wrong-headed reaction to it, the Commie-led Democrats came to power. They then proceeded to save one of their own, North Viet Nam, by cutting off the aid to South Viet Nam. Of course Ho Chi Minh still got his aid from the Kremlin, so….
Russia is continuing its “mobilization,” attempting to gather up more people to serve in the war in Ukraine.
The Russian government, including the courts, are removing many exemptions from military service, which will allow more men to be put into military service.
Exemptions saying that those who are sick, disabled or over the age of 65 years of age don’t have to serve have been removed. Recruiters are now allowed to recruit Russians convicted of serious crimes. Exemptions for scientists and people with degrees have been removed.
The Russian Supreme Court has also banned those eligible for mobilization from travelling abroad.
Bet a lot of them are planning summer vacations in Karelia or points north this year. You know. Hiking in the tundra.
I am reading unconfirmed reports that Russia soldiers are retreating, away from advancing Ukrainian forces, and some of these Russians are getting killed by Russia mines.
I guess that is one way to motivate soldiers to never retreat. Lay mine fields behind them.
The old, sick, and disabled, eh? Why, things must be even more existentially desperate for the Russians than during the darkest days of WWII.
I’d love to know what your source is. Care to share it (including a link, of course)?