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Ukrainian Counteroffensive
The Ukrainians have started the counteroffensive. We don’t have solid information on how it is going in any specific way, but one key indicator is the Russian response: they blew up a major dam (and thus its 351MW generator), endangering the nuclear power stations that rely on it for cooling water. This suggests desperate panic and a “burn it all down” mindset.
Even Russia’s erstwhile allies are licking their chops. The lapdog who runs Belarus? He says he wants part of Russia. All those predictions I have been making about Russia being carved up by separatists within and invaders without? I think they will come true. Russia is ridiculously weak and powerless. Totalitarian states must have the credible threat of force to retain power. If you rely on Might to Define Right, but you no longer have the former…
Russia appears to be breaking things out of pure spite. After all, the dam was the source of Crimea’s fresh water, and now Crimea has none. Not too smart. If a radioactive cloud emerges from the huge nuclear facility, Russia is downwind.
Things might start happening VERY quickly now.
Published in General
The irony is that Russia, by being paranoid about invasion, has created a prophecy that might fulfill itself. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s borders were under no threat at all. Now? Marauding raiders waltz across the border at will.
The endgame is Unconditional Surrender.
Historical note:
Ukrainian control of the Kakhovka Dam and the control over Crimea’s fresh water was one of the reasons for the 2022 “special military operation.” With that over with, he can go home any time now.
Or, did UAF blow up the dam?
Do we know that it was Russia that blew the dam, or are you speculating? Seems that most of the flooding was on Russian-held territory, and now Russian-occupied Crimea lost a main water source.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the flooded area puts a major crimp in Ukraine’s options for the offensive, and allows the Russian forces to be redeployed since the area behind the flood is now secure from Ukrainian troops.
Three pieces: The Russians controlled the dam and it seems to have blown from internally placed explosives.
Second: The controlled rise in water levels to all-time highs prior to the explosion – consistent with a plan to get maximum “Flood-For-the-Buck.”
Critically, the Third piece: This: https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1666015265971118082 . Give it a read. I find it quite persuasive.
Russia deliberately flooded the trenches they spent half a year building?
I think the food waters, when they recede, may end up making the river easier to ford. Lots of unintended consequences.
I don’t have a Washington Post subscription so I can’t easily verify, but someone posted this screen shot on Twitter:
If true, UKR at least considered blowing the dam.
A quick search of the news indicates that both sides are blaming the other.
So, we have no idea, right?
A dam was blown. The Ukrainians blame the Russians, and the Russians blame the Ukrainians.
The dam was on the Dnieper river, right? The Russians are on one side, and the Ukrainians on the other.
The potential loss of the water source to Crimea hurts the Russians. The nuclear plant in question is on the east bank of the reservoir, under Russian control, so again, the potential loss of water hurts the Russians.
I’d be surprised if there were many civilians left in the areas subject to flooding, but I don’t know. There was quite a bit of fighting in the area last year, and the river is the front line, I think.
I do find your reaction totally irrational, iWe. You simultaneously claim that the Russians blew the dam and that this does a great deal of harm to the Russians. That makes little sense. Your apparent explanation is some massive — but thus far invisible — Ukrainian counteroffensive that has supposedly driven the Russians to desperation.
Consider the possibility that you are engaged in wishful thinking.
Russians first bragged about blowing up the dam early this morning, but after realizing the scale of destruction started to deny it and blame it on Ukraine. tweet
Russian soldier Yehor Guzenko, who is in Kherson region, confirmed that russians blew up Kakhovska HPP. He is happy and calls for blowing up other dams.
video
Any military force that didn’t consider the ramifications of blowing up dams on any part of a battlefield would be criminally incompetent.
That is to say, completely in harmony with the character of the Putin regime.
Quite so. And ramifications of major changes are quite hard to predict.
The Russians have sought to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure for most of the war. This is consistent.
Eh.
I guarantee the US Military has a fully detailed plan sitting in a drawer somewhere to invade and occupy Canada.
Read the Russian Telegram channels. They seem to think the Russians are losing on the battlefield.
We’ll know who is right in the coming days.
From …. 1854 maybe.
the major fortifications aren’t near the river….
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65615184
there you go- that describes the Russian army to a “T”…
Plus, battlefield situations change. Just because you built fortifications doesn’t mean they’re in a place you’ll need them later, or that other considerations won’t override their use.
Some Russians are starting to get it:
War Plan Red – 1919-1939. Canada was Crimson. India was Ruby, Australia was Scarlet, New Zealand was Garnet, and Ireland was Emerald.
The US military has war planners. You know what they do? They plan wars. War Plan Black was Germany. War Plan Gold was France. War Plan Orange was Japan.
I know a guy that is a career officer in the army. He has spent his whole career creating contingency plans that will (likely) never be used. Planning ahead is what smart people do.
The rise in water levels to dangerous levels began about a month ago, at upstream locations controlled by … Ukraine:
You’ve thought that for about 9-10 months now, right? The fall of Bakhmut didn’t change your assessment at all.
I do agree that we’ll see what happens. I’m not the one insinuating that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is going well because of a dam being destroyed by someone. That’s you, getting ahead of the facts, as usual on this issue.
This is Russian infrastructure, right? It’s a dam that supplies water to Crimea.
For the most part, from what I’ve seen and heard, the Russians have sought to avoid destroying infrastructure in the areas that they have conquered. That only makes sense. They have been targeting Ukrainian infrastructure elsewhere, especially electrical generation and distribution, from what I’ve heard.