Tracking Hurricane Ian

 

This may too early a start for the latest hurricane bearing down on Florida, but the last time we had a major threat of a hurricane that hit some of the state pretty hard, one of our Rico members put up a post so that the many Floridians who were impacted could regularly update us (assuming they could get online).

As of 1:30pm, Tuesday, this came from weather.com:

T​here remain uncertainties regarding exactly where and when Ian will move ashore in Florida. But there are trends in this forecast that are important.

F​irst, forecast models are trending a landfall farther south and east along the coast of western Florida. T​hat would bring Ian’s center onshore in western Florida sooner, possibly sometime later Wednesday or early Thursday.

S​econd, a sooner landfall would mean a stronger hurricane landfall, at least at Category 3 intensity, as wind shear wouldn’t have enough time to degrade it somewhat. T​his increases the danger for southwest Florida, including Charlotte Harbor and Fort Myers.

T​hat said, a track near the left (west) side of the cone below could still be a near worst-case storm surge scenario for the Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater area.

Regardless, Ian will be a large and dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the coast with life-threatening, major impacts.

We’re bundled up and tied down, and just have to fill the bathtub. We are in Central Florida, Polk County, and expect to get lots of rain and wind. I have to admit I’m a bit nervous, but there’s nothing much else to do but wait and see.

If anyone else in Florida would like to report in, please do.

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  1. Clavius Thatcher
    Clavius
    @Clavius

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving.  It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    • #1
  2. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    Thanks for a great map, Clavius. It’s going to be ugly.

    • #2
  3. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/fl/saint-petersburg

    • #3
  4. Vance Richards Member
    Vance Richards
    @VanceRichards

    I was supposed to fly into West Palm tonight but I rescheduled for next week. My sister (a long time Florida resident) mocked me for wussing out since the heavy stuff will be to the northwest of there, but with limited vacation days, I don’t need to fly in so I can sit in the rain.

    • #4
  5. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Vance Richards (View Comment):

    I was supposed to fly into West Palm tonight but I rescheduled for next week. My sister (a long time Florida resident) mocked me for wussing out since the heavy stuff will be to the northwest of there, but with limited vacation days, I don’t need to fly in so I can sit in the rain.

    I can remember spending a week in Kauai in the rain. I almost murdered my husband for being cranky. As long as you could reschedule, I think you made the right decision. But I’ve only lived in FL for 16 years.

    • #5
  6. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member
    MWD B612 "Dawg"
    @danok1

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    Yeah, yesterday it showed the remnants near Charlotte, NC on Saturday morning. Really slowed down.

    • #6
  7. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    It’s probably obvious to everyone but me, but does anyone know what the black circles with M, H and S stand for in the cone?

    • #7
  8. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member
    MWD B612 "Dawg"
    @danok1

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    It’s probably obvious to everyone but me, but does anyone know what the black circles with M, H and S stand for in the cone?

    Believe it’s “Major hurricane,” “Hurricane,” and “Tropical Storm.”

    • #8
  9. Clavius Thatcher
    Clavius
    @Clavius

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    It’s probably obvious to everyone but me, but does anyone know what the black circles with M, H and S stand for in the cone?

    Believe it’s “Major hurricane,” “Hurricane,” and “Tropical Storm.”

    Exactly, based on sustained winds.  The explanation is below “Forecast positions.”

    The map is here on National Hurricane Center web site.  The map gets updated every few hours.

     

    • #9
  10. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Clavius (View Comment):

    Exactly, based on sustained winds.  The explanation is below “Forecast positions.”

    The map is here on National Hurricane Center web site.  The map gets updated every few hours.

    Duh! That’s an awesome site, but I’m not sure I want that much bad news at one time! Seriously, thanks!

    • #10
  11. Clavius Thatcher
    Clavius
    @Clavius

    Here is a current (1:11pm PDT 9/27/2022) radar image of Florida.

    • #11
  12. Clavius Thatcher
    Clavius
    @Clavius

    Clavius (View Comment):

    Here is a current (1:11pm PDT 9/27/2022) radar image of Florida.

    FYI it is from here

    • #12
  13. Dr. Bastiat Member
    Dr. Bastiat
    @drbastiat

    It’s supposed to get to Hilton Head this weekend.  Likely to just be a heavy rainstorm by then, I think.  But just in case, I figured it was best to stock up on provisions…

     

    • #13
  14. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    Yeah, yesterday it showed the remnants near Charlotte, NC on Saturday morning. Really slowed down.

    Bracing for some bad flooding in the Carolinas

    • #14
  15. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member
    MWD B612 "Dawg"
    @danok1

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    Yeah, yesterday it showed the remnants near Charlotte, NC on Saturday morning. Really slowed down.

    Bracing for some bad flooding in the Carolinas

    Luckily I’m well inland. Those in the low country though….

    • #15
  16. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    Yeah, yesterday it showed the remnants near Charlotte, NC on Saturday morning. Really slowed down.

    Bracing for some bad flooding in the Carolinas

    Luckily I’m well inland. Those in the low country though….

    NC or SC? I’m SC

    • #16
  17. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    https://scemd.org/

    • #17
  18. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    https://scemd.org/prepare/know-your-zone/

    • #18
  19. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member
    MWD B612 "Dawg"
    @danok1

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    Yeah, yesterday it showed the remnants near Charlotte, NC on Saturday morning. Really slowed down.

    Bracing for some bad flooding in the Carolinas

    Luckily I’m well inland. Those in the low country though….

    NC or SC? I’m SC

    NC, just south of the CLT.

    • #19
  20. AMD Texas Coolidge
    AMD Texas
    @DarinJohnson

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    Thanks for a great map, Clavius. It’s going to be ugly.

    Feel for you. The biggest downside to living in Corpus is the storms.

    • #20
  21. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    AMD Texas (View Comment):
    Feel for you. The biggest downside to living in Corpus is the storms.

    You Texans have had your share of nasty storms.

    • #21
  22. 9thDistrictNeighbor Member
    9thDistrictNeighbor
    @9thDistrictNeighbor

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    I figured it was best to stock up on provisions…

     

    That’s how they do it in Bermuda…plenty of brown liquor.

    The World Equestrian Center in Ocala has permanent stables for over 2200 horses.  They announced yesterday that they are at capacity sheltering animals from the storm.  The only food available in the hotel is from the coffee shop and the Yellow Pony bar.  Figures.

    One stall is shared by a goat, a miniature horse and a kangaroo.

     

    • #22
  23. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    Stay safe, Susan. Hope the power isn’t out too long. To me, that’s always the worst part – no power. (I sound like a megalomaniac.) 

    • #23
  24. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Stay safe, Susan. Hope the power isn’t out too long. To me, that’s always the worst part – no power. (I sound like a megalomaniac.)

    I agree. That would be bad. We have a generator, but it can’t be used all the time. My husband just agreed to get some sandbags available in our community. We’ve never used them before, but the ground is already saturated and if we get the heavy rains they’re predicting. . . 

    Thanks for the positive thoughts, HangOn

    • #24
  25. Front Seat Cat Member
    Front Seat Cat
    @FrontSeatCat

    I’m nervous too and will check in as it continues – ugh……

    • #25
  26. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Front Seat Cat (View Comment):

    I’m nervous too and will check in as it continues – ugh……

    What are you expecting?

    • #26
  27. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    It’s supposed to get to Hilton Head this weekend. Likely to just be a heavy rainstorm by then, I think. But just in case, I figured it was best to stock up on provisions…

     

    Good choice.   It won’t make anything better but you won’t mind so much.   I’m reminded of coming down  with a nasty ear infection while on vacation.   I went to the Dr when got home. He said “This is really bad.  Why didn’t you go to a Dr there?”   I told him I had been self medicating with Bourbon and  cigars.   He asked if it helped.   My reply… “Not a bit.   But I didn’t mind being sick so much.”

    • #27
  28. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    Yeah, yesterday it showed the remnants near Charlotte, NC on Saturday morning. Really slowed down.

    Bracing for some bad flooding in the Carolinas

    Luckily I’m well inland. Those in the low country though….

    NC or SC? I’m SC

    NC, just south of the CLT.

    Due south of you. Whatever you get, I will get.

    • #28
  29. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    It’s supposed to get to Hilton Head this weekend. Likely to just be a heavy rainstorm by then, I think. But just in case, I figured it was best to stock up on provisions…

     

    I would have a bug -out car packed in case of evacuation.

    • #29
  30. Dr. Bastiat Member
    Dr. Bastiat
    @drbastiat

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    It’s supposed to get to Hilton Head this weekend. Likely to just be a heavy rainstorm by then, I think. But just in case, I figured it was best to stock up on provisions…

     

    I would have a bug -out car packed in case of evacuation.

    I’m hosting a hurricane party for the neighborhood Friday night.  The morning after the last hurricane party, I really wished that I had evacuated like they told us to.  I felt awful. 

    Hopefully this will be a party hurricane & not a damaging hurricane.  We’ll see, I guess… 

    • #30
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