Tracking Hurricane Ian

 

This may too early a start for the latest hurricane bearing down on Florida, but the last time we had a major threat of a hurricane that hit some of the state pretty hard, one of our Rico members put up a post so that the many Floridians who were impacted could regularly update us (assuming they could get online).

As of 1:30pm, Tuesday, this came from weather.com:

T​here remain uncertainties regarding exactly where and when Ian will move ashore in Florida. But there are trends in this forecast that are important.

F​irst, forecast models are trending a landfall farther south and east along the coast of western Florida. T​hat would bring Ian’s center onshore in western Florida sooner, possibly sometime later Wednesday or early Thursday.

S​econd, a sooner landfall would mean a stronger hurricane landfall, at least at Category 3 intensity, as wind shear wouldn’t have enough time to degrade it somewhat. T​his increases the danger for southwest Florida, including Charlotte Harbor and Fort Myers.

T​hat said, a track near the left (west) side of the cone below could still be a near worst-case storm surge scenario for the Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater area.

Regardless, Ian will be a large and dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the coast with life-threatening, major impacts.

We’re bundled up and tied down, and just have to fill the bathtub. We are in Central Florida, Polk County, and expect to get lots of rain and wind. I have to admit I’m a bit nervous, but there’s nothing much else to do but wait and see.

If anyone else in Florida would like to report in, please do.

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  1. 9thDistrictNeighbor Member
    9thDistrictNeighbor
    @9thDistrictNeighbor

    Had to do it.

     

    • #31
  2. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    9thDistrictNeighbor (View Comment):

    Had to do it.

     

     

    How much?   This much…


    https://vinepair.com/booze-news/record-bourbon-in-kentucky-2021/

    • #32
  3. Clavius Thatcher
    Clavius
    @Clavius

    It’s going to be a difficult couple of days in Florida.

    • #33
  4. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Live video key west


    https://www.keywestharborwebcam.com/

    • #34
  5. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Live video Tampa
    https://www.porttampawebcam.com/

    • #35
  6. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Port canaveral

    https://www.portcanaveralwebcam.com/

    • #36
  7. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Port canaveral

    https://www.portcanaveralwebcam.com/

    These are amazing, Red. Although it’s like watching a hungry monster on the way to wipe us out.

    • #37
  8. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    The hurricane is still on target, is now a Cat4 and is highly likely to become a Cat5

    • #38
  9. 9thDistrictNeighbor Member
    9thDistrictNeighbor
    @9thDistrictNeighbor

    It looks to be heading to make landfall right by the Thomas Edison and Henry Ford winter estates.  Those are frame houses set back from the Caloosahatchie River.  The NWS is predicting a 12-16 foot storm surge. 

    There has been so much development in SW Florida.  Lots of people who have never been through a storm.  We had a small storm by us with a 70 mph gust that lasted about a minute.  It toppled trees onto houses and ripped roofs and gutters off.  I can’t imagine sustained winds at twice the speed.

    • #39
  10. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    9thDistrictNeighbor (View Comment):

    It looks to be heading to make landfall right by the Thomas Edison and Henry Ford winter estates. Those are frame houses set back from the Caloosahatchie River. The NWS is predicting a 12-16 foot storm surge.

    There has been so much development in SW Florida. Lots of people who have never been through a storm. We had a small storm by us with a 70 mph gust that lasted about a minute. It toppled trees onto houses and ripped roofs and gutters off. I can’t imagine sustained winds at twice the speed.

    Imagine hell and you would be close.

    • #40
  11. 9thDistrictNeighbor Member
    9thDistrictNeighbor
    @9thDistrictNeighbor

    Ft. Myers webcam that is still working,

    https://www.diamondheadfl.com/fort-myers/beach-cam

     

    • #41
  12. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    Oh great.  My school has a huge game against Clemson Saturday night . . .

    • #42
  13. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Stad (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    What is really scary is how slow it is moving. It will be strong and overland for quite a while.

    Oh great. My school has a huge game against Clemson Saturday night . . .

    Gamecocks moved their game back to Thursday.

    • #43
  14. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    9thDistrictNeighbor (View Comment):

    Ft. Myers webcam that is still working,

    https://www.diamondheadfl.com/fort-myers/beach-cam

     

    That camera might not last for long.- lower than most.

    • #44
  15. 9thDistrictNeighbor Member
    9thDistrictNeighbor
    @9thDistrictNeighbor

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    9thDistrictNeighbor (View Comment):

    Ft. Myers webcam that is still working,

    https://www.diamondheadfl.com/fort-myers/beach-cam

    That camera might not last for long.- lower than most.

    Yeah, it’s gone.

    Here’s another.

    https://lanikaiislandresort.com/fort-myers-beach-webcam/

    (How annoying…these midwesterners looky-looing on our travails….)

    • #45
  16. Douglas Pratt Coolidge
    Douglas Pratt
    @DouglasPratt

    Dave Barry has a simple three-step hurricane plan.

    STEP 1. Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.

    STEP 2. Put these supplies into your car.

    STEP 3. Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween.

    Be safe, Susan.

    • #46
  17. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Douglas Pratt (View Comment):

    Dave Barry has a simple three-step hurricane plan.

    STEP 1. Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.

    STEP 2. Put these supplies into your car.

    STEP 3. Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween.

    Be safe, Susan.

    Thanks for the giggle, Doug. Isn’t Barry great?!

    • #47
  18. La Tapada Member
    La Tapada
    @LaTapada

    My husband and I are supposed to be driving on Friday afternoon from just south of Charlotte to Raleigh for a one-day translators conference on Saturday. Thankfully the hurricane will be downgraded, but I wonder what the driving conditions will be like. 
    We’re also praying and waiting to hear about my nephew and his wife who live in Port Charlotte and didn’t evacuate.

    • #48
  19. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    La Tapada (View Comment):

    My husband and I are supposed to be driving on Friday afternoon from just south of Charlotte to Raleigh for a one-day translators conference on Saturday. Thankfully the hurricane will be downgraded, but I wonder what the driving conditions will be like.
    We’re also praying and waiting to hear about my nephew and his wife who live in Port Charlotte and didn’t evacuate.

    With our current technology, you’ll be able to check out the roads before you leave, I’m pretty sure. And I’ll add your nephew and his wife to our prayers.

    • #49
  20. La Tapada Member
    La Tapada
    @LaTapada

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    La Tapada (View Comment):

    My husband and I are supposed to be driving on Friday afternoon from just south of Charlotte to Raleigh for a one-day translators conference on Saturday. Thankfully the hurricane will be downgraded, but I wonder what the driving conditions will be like.
    We’re also praying and waiting to hear about my nephew and his wife who live in Port Charlotte and didn’t evacuate.

    With our current technology, you’ll be able to check out the roads before you leave, I’m pretty sure. And I’ll add your nephew and his wife to our prayers.

    Thank you, Susan. And prayers for you and yours.

    • #50
  21. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    If this storm and the response to it go well, it will be a success for the Biden administration.  If it doesn’t go well then DiSantis is worse than Hitler.  

    • #51
  22. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    If this storm and the response to it go well, it will be a success for the Biden administration. If it doesn’t go well then DiSantis is worse than Hitler.

    I’m pretty sure that either way, they will find a way to blame DeSantis for something!

    • #52
  23. Buckpasser Member
    Buckpasser
    @Buckpasser

    I’m just north of Jacksonville.  Maybe 2 days of heavy rains on Fri and Sat.  Hope that’s all it is.

    • #53
  24. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Buckpasser (View Comment):

    I’m just north of Jacksonville. Maybe 2 days of heavy rains on Fri and Sat. Hope that’s all it is.

    Fingers crossed!

    • #54
  25. Joe Escalante Member
    Joe Escalante
    @JoeEscalante

    Thanks for updates I can trust.

    I’ve been numbed by all the exaggerated weather predictions here in Southern California which seemed to be trying to beat me over the head with the notion that climate change should be more important to me than crime, terrible economy, and open borders.

    • #55
  26. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Joe Escalante (View Comment):

    Thanks for updates I can trust.

    I’ve been numbed by all the exaggerated weather predictions here in Southern California which seemed to be trying to beat me over the head with the notion that climate change should be more important to me than crime, terrible economy, and open borders.

    I lived in SoCal for a long time. In spite of the hurricanes, I love living here. Few fires or earthquakes!

    • #56
  27. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Joe Escalante (View Comment):

    Thanks for updates I can trust.

    I’ve been numbed by all the exaggerated weather predictions here in Southern California which seemed to be trying to beat me over the head with the notion that climate change should be more important to me than crime, terrible economy, and open borders.

    I lived in SoCal for a long time. In spite of the hurricanes, I love living here. Few fires or earthquakes!

    Encouraged that you were still online 25 minutes ago.

    • #57
  28. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Red Herring (View Comment):

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Joe Escalante (View Comment):

    Thanks for updates I can trust.

    I’ve been numbed by all the exaggerated weather predictions here in Southern California which seemed to be trying to beat me over the head with the notion that climate change should be more important to me than crime, terrible economy, and open borders.

    I lived in SoCal for a long time. In spite of the hurricanes, I love living here. Few fires or earthquakes!

    Encouraged that you were still online 25 minutes ago.

    Thanks, Red. So far we’ve had winds, but not major winds. And very little rain. But I’m reminded that the storm is still quite a bit south of us. If the cell towers survive, I’ll still be on, but fortunately I’m on my desktop now.

    • #58
  29. Vance Richards Inactive
    Vance Richards
    @VanceRichards

    So, I guess this didn’t happen.

    • #59
  30. The Other Diane Coolidge
    The Other Diane
    @TheOtherDiane
    • #60
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