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Is Ukraine Winning the War Against Russia?
I have been reading recent posts on social media claiming that Ukraine is recapturing dozens of square miles of territory from Russia, Russian troops are taking heavy casualties, and many Russian troops are cut off from supply lines.
It seems that the western nations are pouring weapons into the Ukraine military, which has outperformed expectations in using these weapons to their advantage. It’s starting to look like Russia’s military is not the second best military in the world, but rather the second best military in Ukraine.
One doesn’t want to read too much into these social media reports of Ukraine’s success. Who knows what is really going on over there? But former General of the US Army in Europe, Ben Hodges, says that Ukraine will recapture Crimea in a year. He seems to have backed off his earlier prediction that Ukraine would retake all of the territory it lost after February 22, 2022, by the end of summer (which would be right about now, it would seem).
Still, I bet that if Putin had known how badly this invasion would go and how unified the liberal-democratic world would be in supporting Ukraine, he would not have ordered the invasion of Ukraine. This shows how wars can start based on miscalculation, the underestimating of the opposition. In any case, we will have to watch over the next month or so to see if Ukraine is able to keep this counter-attack going.
Published in General
So, maybe Putin will end up with egg on his face yet again.
I should have indicated the sarcasm in my remark. It likely would just be more disastrous since our leaders have no understanding of what it takes to carry out military operations.
I used to hear him pretty regularly on the Northern Alliance Radio Network (NARN) podcasts.
How does the loser, retaliate? If anything I would expect Ukraine to do that more, retaliation for having been attacked, perhaps by ruining significant parts of the Nordstream 2 pipeline etc.
You’re right. I should’ve thought of this. Ukraine will march all through Russia and destroy all of their munitions they could retaliate with. After that they will remove him from the Kremlin by force.
Ar Ar, Earth Humor. But really, how does a loser, retaliate for losing? Wouldn’t that actually be more like… winning?
I have two more hours for this. After that you will have to wait for tomorrow, to start again.
If you keep up with current events, he has plenty of defended territory to operate from. He still has munition factories. He is not out of fighter planes. Conveniently, he is a dictator.
So then, he capitalizes on all of that too drop munitions on Ukraine. They won’t like that. It’s also a political move for a strong man to stay in power.
LETS MAKE THIS LONG!
You can call that retaliation if you want. I don’t think it accurately qualifies.
Thank you God.
And how is that different from the present situation? It isn’t restraint that has held back the Russian Air Force from bombing more- it is b/c they can’t suppress Ukrainian air defenses-which are only improving with the arrival of western gear (HARMS, IRIS-T). If anything the pendulum is swinging away from the Russian Air Force and the Russians appear to be depleting their long range, accurate missiles.
I’m saying he can vandalize whatever he wants. Gratuitous destruction without any strategic gain. The guy on the podcast predicted he was going to do it if he loses.
It’s like the old story, Abe Lincoln asks, “If you call a tail a leg, how many legs does a dog have?” Answer: “5”. Lincoln: “No, 4. Calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it one.”
And you saying that’s “retaliation” doesn’t mean it fits the meaning of the word.
Now all that’s needed is a good term for that, because “retaliation” just isn’t it.
Well what if I say that doesn’t settle it? I say you are WRONG!
Russia retains the potential to spoil the peace, even if they lose. (However you define Russia’s loss.) Or at least make peace much more expensive (in terms of re-building Ukraine, supplying the EU with Energy). That’s a tactical capacity which can have strategic impact, not least because it will have an impact on what the EU (and maybe Zelensky? and maybe not the US?) will find an acceptable outcome.
I mean absolutely. He could bomb those nuke plants. Maybe the right kind of PR around a cyber attack. He obviously has options for this. It strikes me as easy and obvious. He’s not like some tinpot dictator without any resources.
And it begins:
Just before winter. Who would have imagined?
But he risks the West upping the ante as well- ATACMS and F-16s for Ukraine would be easy. With the ATACMS many Russian bases would be under grave threat. Russia already can’t establish air superiority in Ukraine- with F-16s Ukraine can greatly worsen the difficulties the Russia Air Force faces. Crimea would be under constant attack & Belgograd would not be safe as well.
Pressure on Putin at home:
Iow: nu, Vladimir?
He hast to make a calculation as a strongman in a bad situation.
Effectively, you have Biden, Putin and Xi sabotaging the worlds economy. It is going to be very hard for Europe to avoid getting screwed the next 2 years. The EU is not agile and they are still mentally controlled by that pint-sized Swedish girl.
The GOP got to squander $9Trillion in nation building. Now it is the Dems turn to squander trillions on national building.
you mean like this one.
Named the “Power of Siberia,” the pipeline runs more than 8,100 kilometers (5,000 miles) across the two countries, according to Chinese state-run news agency Xinhua, and will deliver 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually by 2024. It will be operated by Russia’s state-owned company Gazprom.
38 B cubic meters is about 10% of Europe’s annual consumption. There is another pipeline (Power of Siberia2) that is on and off and has a larger capacity.
100%
This sounds like pretty good analysis. Russia is probably pretty screwed. If you listen to the end, he gets into the complications of Putin lashing out.
He talks about other Russian nationalists deposing him, but he doesn’t really get into the complications and difficulties other than saying that Western governments aren’t ready for it, including to the extent that they don’t want it to happen. I’m just reporting what he said.
https://audioboom.com/posts/8155866-ukraine-the-ukrainians-on-the-march-what-is-to-be-done-professor-h-j-mackinder-internatio
https://audioboom.com/posts/8155867-ukraine-what-do-the-russians-mean-by-taking-the-gloves-off-professor-h-j-mackinder-interna
Weakness and stupidity is really fun to resolve when it comes to foreign policy.
I would listen to the guy on the John Batchelor show on Saturday as well. He says it’s going to last for another year and the Biden administration is possibly too stupid to front load Ukraine with enough weapons.
They are also reporting that the energy issues are going to last for three years.
The outcomes are uncertain. It comes down to political dynamics in Russia and political decisions in the United States.
Ukraine may be talented in war, but they need a lot of gear.
Thanks to Europe’s and America’s energy policies, destroying critical Russian infrastructure will be too much disaster for (innocent) Europeans to willingly live with.
Rufus is not wrong that everything is a disaster. It’s so bad it almost feels intentional.
Any prognostications on how current politics could lead to 1/3 of the world’s population dying?
The Ukraine guy on John Batchelor on Saturday (not Sunday both were good) said that Europe has to tap dance for three years on energy. He wasn’t that pessimistic, but they have to do a lot of socialist crap to get through it.
Still, it’s killing their export business. It’s very risky for the structure of their government and society.
* the two guests on John bachelor this weekend were the type of analysis I am looking for. He wouldn’t have anybody on unless they were good.
Scott Ritter was on Judge Napolitano yesterday. He said a lot of embarrassing things if Ukraine actually wins. I have a feeling that guy just says whatever his crowd wants, but he was really sticking his neck out. YouTube. The iTunes is not up yet.
Personally, this is my view.