Dare We Hope Youngkin Might Actually Win?

Jon Gabriel, Ed.
Jon Gabriel, Ed.
6316
 

Watching Virginia election results is depressing for conservatives. The more rural parts of the states roll in first, showing a close race in any presidential or statewide contest. Then, in come the results from northern VA and the Democrat wins in a blowout.

So I’ve tried to temper my enthusiasm for Glenn Youngkin. Yes, he’s run an exceptionally good campaign while his sleazy opponent, Terry McAuliffe, has been abysmal. But still…

Polls released Thursday afternoon indicate a tipping point for the Old Dominion.

Partisans on Twitter will be quick to say, “yeah, well, it’s a Fox News poll,” but that’s uninformed. The most recent Fox polls had McAuliffe up by 5 points (10/10 – 10/13) and 4 points (9/26 – 9/29).

Since these new polls just dropped, they haven’t been added to the RealClearPolitics average, which has McAuliffe up by 0.8 percent. The average is calculated using the six most recent polls.

I’m not sure if RCP counts co/efficient (I’ve never heard of them), but they do include Fox News. By my calculations, if they only count Fox, Youngkin will lead by 0.5 percentage points. If they count both of today’s polls, the best McAuliffe number drops out, and Youngkin will lead by 1.7.

I refuse to count my chickens, but I’ve got my calculator handy.

Update: RealClearPolitics just updated their average to include the Fox News poll. Youngkin is up by 0.4. Also, after doing some research, the co/efficient poll was conducted by the Youngkin campaign so it will not be counted. Here’s the RCP average over the last two weeks.

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  1. Manny Coolidge
    Manny
    @Manny
    10:42 AM EDT ⋅ Nov 1, 2021

    J Climacus (View Comment):

    OwnedByDogs (View Comment):

    J Climacus (View Comment):

    Youngkin will win, and do nothing substantive to rollback the progressive revolution. The left will learn that it is still too early to publicly proclaim goals like excluding parents from public education. They will continue to infiltrate and undermine institutions. The bureaucracy will become evermore leftist and uncompromising. Then when Youngkin is eventually replaced, it will become clear that nothing really changed with his election. The next time the takeover of public education will be definitive and final.

     

    Wow. Talk about crushing morosity. I prefer to be at least a little optimistic.

    I prefer realism. It’s the same old game where conservatives are encouraged to mistake avoiding a catastrophic political defeat with a victory for conservatism. McAuliffe has publicly said that parents should not have a say in the public education of their children. Virginia is forcing the most extreme forms of CRT and transgenderism down the throats of children. That’s too much (for now) for even bluish Virginia. So the voters may very well reject McAuliffe for that reason. Were he to win, it would be a catastrophic defeat for conservatives because it will validate electorally the far left. So we should all hope that Youngkin wins. But if he does, it merely slows down the progressive steamroller a bit, it doesn’t change the direction. Youngkin won’t be pushing to rollback any progressive initiatives, just stymying (for now) the most extreme ones.

    True hope has to be based on a realistic assessment of the situation. The Republican Party loves to encourage us to mistake Republican victories for conservative victories. They get to stay in power and they neuter any real conservative alternative to the left that would challenge their hegemony on the right. So we get Republican victories and yet somehow the country goes further and further left. I’m all for avoiding catastrophic defeats. I just won’t call them victories.

    Yes, but the poll numbers gave us hope and MacAuliffe is certainly acting like he’s behind.  It’s not like the hope is based on nothing.  If you don’t believe the polls, I can understand that.  But don’t say there’s nothing to be optimistic about.  I said in my comment I was cautiously optimistic.

    • #61
  2. OccupantCDN Coolidge
    OccupantCDN
    @OccupantCDN
    4:12 PM EDT ⋅ Nov 1, 2021

    Manny (View Comment):
    Yes, but the poll numbers gave us hope and MacAuliffe is certainly acting like he’s behind.  It’s not like the hope is based on nothing.  If you don’t believe the polls, I can understand that.  But don’t say there’s nothing to be optimistic about.  I said in my comment I was cautiously optimistic.

    The problem is when the democrats think they’re behind they’ll ramp up the ballot box stuffing.

    I really do believe that the only reason Trump won in 2016 – is that the democrats believed the polling – and didnt stuff enough – in 2020, they took no chances and stuffed to incredible, unbelievable new depths.  80 Million votes for Joe Biden? Who can believe that? Seeing the differences in democrat and republican rallies in 2019-2020…

    So yes, I believe that the race is close – but they’ll have to beat the margin of fraud convincingly – to actually win the election.

     

    • #62
  3. Manny Coolidge
    Manny
    @Manny
    4:15 PM EDT ⋅ Nov 1, 2021

    OccupantCDN (View Comment):

    Manny (View Comment):
    Yes, but the poll numbers gave us hope and MacAuliffe is certainly acting like he’s behind. It’s not like the hope is based on nothing. If you don’t believe the polls, I can understand that. But don’t say there’s nothing to be optimistic about. I said in my comment I was cautiously optimistic.

    The problem is when the democrats think they’re behind they’ll ramp up the ballot box stuffing.

    I really do believe that the only reason Trump won in 2016 – is that the democrats believed the polling – and didnt stuff enough – in 2020, they took no chances and stuffed to incredible, unbelievable new depths. 80 Million votes for Joe Biden? Who can believe that? Seeing the differences in democrat and republican rallies in 2019-2020…

    So yes, I believe that the race is close – but they’ll have to beat the margin of fraud convincingly – to actually win the election.

     

    That is a possibility. We have to be vigilant. Otherwise we’ll never win an election again. 

    • #63
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